World Colonial

I was just using this as an example. We've discussed this before where I think we are in agreement. Most coins aren't visible to any individual or "the market" collectively, as most of the time only a low fraction is visible collectively. It's either in collections, "change jars", or dispersed where no individual is aware of it. That's why you see what you see at your local auction while others don't. (Very) low survival rates do not usually = low number of survivors, at least not the way most collectors think of low. The TPG population data for much older, higher valued, and lower mintage coins make it evident that the actual supply for more recent, lower valued, and higher mintage coins is usually (a lot) higher than what's visibly evident.

32-S quarter is a key date, the mintage is low (by more contemporary standards but not actually) and the price is high enough where the TPG populations are more reflective of the actual supply in higher quality. Obviously, more than a minimal pct haven't been melted, though more might have been in 1979/1980 than most believe when very low grades weren't worth very much. I don't recall prices at the time. Melt was about $9 at the $50 peak price.

No. In the example of the 1964 quarter, I think so, unless it was large scale melted. Not literally all of it, but a much higher pct than is evident to any of us, no matter who that may be. I think most coins are (a lot) more common than most collectors seem to think, whether in a specific quality or generally. The sentiments in this thread are exaggerated, but not unusual. I encountered it on the South African coin forum, all the time. I've encountered it here and the PCGS forum occasionally too. The internet has exposed this as being generally true. I've also provided numerous examples. As another one, one Heritage listing for the 1796-1797 half dollar references Amato's book where he attempted to itemize every known example. The listing also states more (a few) have been identified since. This is usually at least a mid-five figure coin, so if even one more previously not generally known shows up, it should be apparent that the potential supply for somewhere in the vicinity of at least 95% of all circulation coins ever struck is noticeably more too.

I can't prove most 1933-1964 US coins exist in very large supply in one place, but it's not meaningful. Take the 1964 or any slightly older quarter. This coin presumably didn't circulate hardly at all, so unless it was mass melted, most of it should exist in "high" quality. Yes, practically all of it, whether it is visible to the market or not. It has to be somewhere.

Once again, limited collecting isn't caused by a lack of affluence. It's irrelevant whether this person said it as it's factually false. This is so obvious it's hard to believe it even needs to be stated. On one occasion, I estimated the market value of the "better" South African Union and ZAR coinage. These are their "classics". This was five years ago or somewhat earlier, at most. The result? My guess is $30MM to $50MM. At the 2011 peak, maybe $200M. Yes, for all of it, except patterns which are mostly apparently unavailable. That's a rounding error in the context of the financial market, real estate, and liquid "wealth". With the Bolivian Republic decimals I collect, one moderately affluent collector could buy up the entire supply by themself. yes, one person. That's how small these "markets" are. The biggest mystery is why so many believe this logical fallacy.

Yes, I agree. This has been one my primary arguments against the claims in this thread.

You're referring to a specific coin or series, and one that isn't even representative of (US) collecting. Most collectors or non-collectors will never own a (US) gold coin in their entire life. It's above their budget level.

Yes, it's unsustainable because of all your premises which have nothing to do with how virtually anyone collects, right? In some instances, you don't even collect with this imaginary behavior you attribute to imaginary collectors and fictional dealers.

Talking about a double standard. Their claims are hearsay but yours aren't.? What difference does it make whether it's a mint set or not? No one claimed it's one of your "gems" or even stated a specific quality. Not that hardly anyone cares about it aside from you. The two posters I identified aren't ignorant.

Well, what can I tell you. I don't understand how you can possibly come to your conclusions when your belief directly contradicts how collectors behave and the non-collector's perception in so many ways. The US Mint claims it sold millions of these sets in the past and still sells hundreds of thousands now. Since the sales volume has collapsed from prior decades, I assume that most buyers are what we'd consider "casual" collectors, but I don't know that definitively. The fact is, they bought it, so I assume they wanted it. Regardless, given the numbers previously sold, even with abnormally high attrition, the number and quality surviving by any sensible standard cannot be considered low. It's only "low" by comingling it with your inflated future demand. Demand is demand. i disagree with you on future demand too, b ut that's something else entirely.

I never said, not in this thread or in any prior post. I have told you that your experience isn't representative of the probable supply because it almost certainly isn't. If you understood statistics, you'd know why I am telling you this. Why do you disregard independently verifiable evidence?

Same response I received from the South African collectors I know. They also assumed if they didn't see it, it didn't exist. Where were all the other (world) coins in the TPG data now before it was graded? It wasn't in your local coin shop either. Tourists who can afford to travel internationally don't waste their time selling their FX change to their local dealer in any meaningful number. Depending upon the coin, it's most likely in the home country or one which borders it. That's where it was issued and mostly circulated.

No, you don't know with the accuracy you imply. No one can possibly know that. Read up on statistics. I didn't invent it. Like I told you before, "change jar" can be literal, or not. The SDB vault we're discussing in this thread, it's a "change jar". Two posters in this thread told you they see this coinage in rolls regularly. You ask me why I discount personal experience? Why do you do it?

You just made this up. You cannot possibly know it. Look at the TPG populations. Many aren't that low. Given the prices, it's almost certainly a low fraction of the supply, except for the "top pop" and "undergrade" in some instances.

How do you know what comes in outside your local coin shop? You're in one or a few coin shops regularly (at most) and only in one at a particular point in time. What do you not understand about that? Define collector. Are you telling me hardly any of those who bought Mint sets are collectors? How would you know that? I don't discount experience. That's not the real question. The real question, why do you disregard independently verifiable evidence in favor of your unrepresentative personal experience? You do it, all the time. Your personal experience is not more representative or accurate than independently verifiable data, like industry sales records (which refute your "hate" claim) and the TPG data. Why would I believe your experience over independently verifiable evidence? Why would anyone do that? Look at the availability of much older coinage (no, not 1933-1964 US coinage or 20th century world coinage) with much lower mintages with a much lower probability of survival. You have no knowledge of it.

Remember what I told you in the Swiss "moderns" thread"? You do not understand statistics. No one who understands it would ever make the claims you do. You can't sample anything which is removed from the population. You assume this hasn't happened or it's not a material factor when you have no basis for it whatsoever. Obviously, there were no "high quality" coins for the older dates in circulation in 1999 after 34 years. You have no idea how many coins are in collections or "change jars". You assume the coinage doesn't exist due to your "hate" claim which is wrong.

Supply is supply. What I am telling you applies to most coins.

If 50,000 exist and the average holding period is 10 years, that's 100 coins sold per week. Adjust for whatever number you like. That's not a huge volume being sold within a few days or even per month. Yes, I know it's more than most coins. Once again assuming to know what no one can possibly know. Once again, ignoring the internet. No one needs to buy this type of coin in a coin shop. It's not out of balance, except to someone who projects an unsubstantiated increase in demand and exaggerates the scarcity. Do some math. A SDB vault of coinage is a large number. I don't know how large or how full this one is, but the 5X10 I have at my bank will hold somewhere in the vicinity of 10,000 coins in rolls. A vault, potentially hundreds of thousands, maybe over 1MM. That's not a small number cumulatively when a noticeable proportion is "high quality" and the market is so limited. This is for one person, even if an outlier.

The listing didn't state whether it came from mint sets or not. You're just assuming it under your assumption that this was the only coinage saved. No, it's not going to be found in circulating change, something you have claimed is supposedly unexpected, even for coins dated up to 58 years old. I agree most Mint sets have been broken up or aren't what it was at issuance. The original supply was also huge. Go look at the US Mint sales records. If 5% to 10% still exist more or less as struck, it's not a small number, except to you. Ultimately like the rest of our disagreements, it's based upon your inaccurate premises, when you aren't exaggerating something which you do all the time. Your "scarcity" claims are based upon three primary inaccurate assumptions. First, you claim to know what no one can possibly know. If someone pulled this coinage from circulation (in large numbers) which coin forum members alone could have done, you are in no position to know it. You act as if what you don't see doesn't exist. Second, you do this because you also assume this coinage is "hated", which is simply your code word that others have to pay the price you think it should be worth to prove you wrong. Third, then when you don't see it as often as you think you should in the quality you expect, you claim it's "scarce" or "rare" under the assumption that your personal experience is representative when it isn't. You claim your experience is representative but then totally disregard @VKurtB and @zadok They told you flat out they see this coinage (US moderns) in rolls regularly. Doesn't mean it's your "gems" or MS-66 quality and they didn't specify the coin, but they aren't ignorant where they would mistakenly identify it when it's actually circulated junk either. No, the coins aren't scarce. The graded populations aren't that high (for a US 20th century coin) but not low either. These coins are easy to buy, any day of the week, on Ebay. It's only "scarce" compared to even more common circulating coinage.

The whole point of citing him as an example is that it only takes a handful or low number of collectors to hoard any coin to noticeably or drastically distort the supply. It's happened regularly with noticeably older coinage. You just assume it doesn't (hardly ever) happen for this coinage when there is no reason to believe it. "Hoard" doesn't have to be a SDB vault, It can and is a much larger number of people saving smaller accumulations, like that 23 roll listing of 69-D "BU" quarters on eBay I linked for you in a prior thread.

He wasn't referring to his "core" collection. It was everything else. He never specifically stated whether it was slabbed or not. He inferred he didn't remember what he had, meaning that it isn't graded and needed to be searched, nor is there a reason to expect it. Even if all the coins he has are MS-66 or better (which he didn't say and I didn't claim), grading large volumes of post 1933 US coinage would be self-defeating. The TPG population data doesn't indicate it either, unless you want to believe he has an abnormal pct. of these coins in a holder. I don't believe this as his post didn't indicate or imply it. I'm sure you think it's miscalculation. At least we can agree on that. Where is the evidence even any US common classic (1916-1964 plus Lincoln cents to 1909) sells in the numbers you imply within a few days, outside of rolls or as "junk silver"? No collector needs a roll for their collection. I know you don't, because you assume your experience is representative when it isn't for the reasons I gave you. For "gems", I have no idea how many exist under your criteria as it's exactly that, yours. I'll stick with my prediction that at least 95% are an R-1 with 1250+ in MS-66. No, my opinion has nothing to do with what you wrote. I'd never assume my observations are representative of the supply, absent corroborating evidence. By corroborating, not the equally unrepresentative observations of the few collectors any of us know. It's due to what I told you in the Swiss "moderns" thread. You don't have any idea of the availability of much older coins (no, not 1933-1964 US or earlier common 20th century world coinage). It's partly evident just in the TPG population data, but you can't be bothered to look it up. I've told you that this alone is much better evidence than what you believe. Coins which have an infinitesimal probability of survival in "high" quality exist in much larger number than most collectors would expect, but you still think this coinage (US moderns and world "moderns") has the availability from your observations.

So, when Wonder Coin said he has a SDB vault "full" of 1933 and later US coinage, he doesn't count either? Go read one of your "Raw Moderns" threads. His post is right below one of yours. He also claimed he knows other dealers and collectors who have a lot of it too. Yes, including a lot of US moderns. He didn't provide specifics but there is no basis to believe someone like Wonder Coin would store a lot of junk. He alone potentially has 10,000s of this coinage across most or all dates. at least. It's not like it takes up that much space.

Find the post where I stated it. You can't because I never said it.

Quite sure quite a bit of NCLT at the shows I attended too. Plenty of low-priced world coinage also. I don't bother stopping at US only coin dealers anymore, so can't speak to US moderns.

Potential is light years away from what you have written. Read your own posts.