World Colonial

There is an active thread on the PCGS forum.  I haven't posted in it in awhile, as I get tired of the inflated claims which I consider nonsense.

The only qualification I have to making a forecast is that with the ridiculous level of speculation occurring now in practically everything (including the stupidity with NFTs), practically anything is theoretically "possible".

I expect it to sell for around the same price it did last time in 2002, somewhat more or somewhat less.  It has a somewhat interesting (though IMO, exaggerated) story and yes, it is the only legally one available to own.

Concurrently, this doesn't change the fact that it's still one of purportedly about two dozen in existence.  The primary open question to me is whether two bidders will ignore this or not.

As usual, one of the claims tossed around in the other thread is the potential of a non-collector buying it, as the current owner purportedly isn't one.  However, whether the current owner is or isn't didn't mean they were a random buyer in 2002 because they weren't.  The Coin Week article specifically states they had "dreamed" of owning this type of coin since childhood which makes me suspect that at one point in life, they had been one.

I believe the prospects of a non-collector buying it are better than practically any other coin but concurrently very low.  When contemplating this type of purchase, there is no reason to believe they won't consider other art or collectible alternatives and I have never read a single post on any coin forum supporting it's compelling or competitively priced since comparing it to paintings is apples-oranges.

My opinion is that it should be worth somewhat more than the 1907 UHR.  Same series, about equally scarce, and better known coin with only one available.  A UHR recently sold for $3.6MM.  Per above, I expect to sell for twice or slightly more than "fair value".

1 minute ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

At least with Saints and Liberty DE's you have a SOMEWHAT more liquid market.  Not liquid like stocks, but you won't see prices for high-grade coins or rarities plunge overnight by 20-30%.

Very true.

About six years isn't "overnight" but I understand your point.  The difference with US coinage is that there are far more buyers who will usually "step in" to keep a coin from selling "too cheaply", even if they do not normally collect it.  Plenty of dealers who also do so for inventory.  I have seen a few high profile US coins sell for noticeably less than previously but it hasn't been often in my experience.

It's also why there is a lot of "investor" buying in generic pre-1933 coinage and with NCLT.  I have not looked at the premiums lately but one poster on PCGS mentioned that it's increased recently on pre-1933 gold.  I am only interested in buying it with both a low premium and at a noticeably lower spot price.

38 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

I long ago resigned myself to the very real probababiliy that I will unlikely to recover my total outlay.  I base this on the fact that certified coins on what I regard as the top leading economic indicators, census figures, continue to climb, dashing all my hopes for landing a unique example. That, and one other thing... An unknown member (to me) who quietly assembled a collection of Top Grade roosters which, but for the exception of thirty-plus collectors, debuted at #3 on NGC, effectively knocking everyone one else down one notch. I am still #1 @ PCGS, but his strategy and commitment cannot help but give the rest of us pause. This is the risk one takes when using titles like, "all-time finest" and "world's finest."

It's my assumption that only a very low proportion of the most widely collected European coinage dated from at minimum 1775 are even scarce.  With your series, it would only be if the mintages were abnormally low and a disproportionate percentage were also melted.  Otherwise, almost certainly too many collectors who would have saved it at the time.

With demand, most non-US series lack a high enough collector preference to generate sufficient scale financially.  Usually too large a supply for any realistic increase in the collector base.

To give one example of what can potentially happen, yesterday, Aureo & Calico sold a 1732 Mexico NGC XF-45 8 escudos (same size as US DE) for 15,000 Euro plus buyer's fee.  So, maybe about $22,000 "all-in".  Heritage sold the same coin back in August 2015 for about $54,000.  That's almost a 60% "haircut".  

Why did it happen?  Certainly not because the coin is common.  Heritage estimated less than 10 known of the variety and the other variety in about the same quality sold for $86,000 in the same sale.  Maybe it's the auction firm but other (mostly cheaper) higher quality coins did quite well.  

Most of these coins are just very illiquid.  It won't surprise me if a US dealer bought it and it shows up on their website at 100%+ mark-up.  I don't pay as close attention now but I used to see it, all the time. Somebody invariably buys it, possibly without realizing the auction history.

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Unless you started collecting prior to a bubble spike or a long up-move in PM's (like pre-1974), coins just don't appreciate for the most part.

I was looking at one of the most beautiful coins I have ever seen, the Duckor-Norweb Saint-Gaudens 1908-S MS67.  David Akers bought the coin in 1988 (not an exceptionally elevated time period price-wise) for about $40,000 and then it was sold in 2012 (again, not a bubble spike price or depressed price) for about $160,000.  That works out to about 6% a year, probably lower than CD's over that time, and behind bond funds and/or stocks or a balanced portfolio.

I don't think that trophy coins like some of the 1907 High Reliefs or UHRs have made money over the decades, either.  You'd have to go back to pre-1974 when the price of gold held all these coins down in price to probably make a great 40 or 50 year return.

I don't mind losing even a noticeable proportion of my outlay if I like the coin enough.  Like other collectors, I mostly don't.

I'll do this with my pillar collection because of what I have described.  I never bought it with the expectation of making money.  

I'm not about to do it with coins I can buy any day of the week which mostly have no distinction for the price.  If I ever want this type of coin, I'll buy it later.  If I wait long enough, I expect to be able to buy most of it for (a lot) less.  If I am wrong, it makes no difference to me.

44 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

If this hobby is about collecting and you are done collecting, then what's there to do except stare at the coins, right ? 

If I ever complete my current interest which I doubt will happen due to both lack of budget and coin availability, it isn't like I can't find something else to collect which interests me.

But if I do, it still won't be with coins or a series where I am likely to lose a noticeable proportion of my outlay if it is "material".  I expect most coins to lose noticeable value going forward, especially when adjusted for price changes.

9 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

To each his own.  All I know is, I enjoy my typec collecting strategy:  Heritage....LCS......local coin show.....big regional show....FUN......Ebay.....Heritage....wash, rinse, repeat. 

I prefer most collectors to collect like you describe.  Otherwise, I'd never be able to afford to collect what I do now.   

9 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

But what do you sat to a seasoned veteran like VKurtB who last year outright questioned the "desirability" of any collection that can be assembled in 90 days, or less?

I did not see that post but it reflects my sentiments.  Most collectors do not care (it's evident in what they collect) but if they do, get around this limitation by applying arbitrary and narrow criteria to make it more difficult.  This is done by expanding the series to a specialization (such as die states or die varieties), an arbitrary TPG number (for registry sets) or "eye appeal". 

I'm not knocking this practice but since you asked, that's my opinion and it's especially evident in US collecting, both in how collectors see it and definitely in how the industry promotes collecting  Read Coin Week, auction descriptions and TPG commentary.  They have successfully created the perception of "scarcity" in their marketing.

It would also be true of the more "recent" series in many other countries too (such as in Britain and Canada) except that the price level makes it a lot more difficult to buy the coins without looking somewhat or a lot harder.  If you can't find it on eBay, it's going to take some looking because it isn't likely to be listed on some dealer website even if they have it.  Too much work for too little money or the dealers doesn't attempt to market to collectors outside their country.

By definition, everyone cannot collect actually scarce or rare coins.  So it's only expected that most would and will not.

2 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Even if I had the $$$, what's the fun in that ?  I want to find the coins and buy 'em on my own time and dime.

If I had the money and could somehow complete an entire collection of Saints within a month, what fun would that be, right ?

The coins this forum member and I collect are unlike practically any US coin, even though those I buy are moderate to low priced by US coin standards.

To have any realistic chance of completing my series, I will either need to find a dealer to locate some of the coins for me (possibly a noticeable proportion) or hope what I do not own isn't sold predominantly or exclusively through private transactions. I might also literally have to wait for the owner to die off.

So far, every coin I have bought in my primary series has been where anyone else could have directly competed against me, but I am "running out" of coins to buy in this manner.  By "running out", I am referring to the date/denomination combinations available in the TPG data, since I have literally almost never seen one outside of a holder where one (or a few) aren't otherwise graded.

The coins I do not own which are in the collections I am referring to, I have never seen these come up for sale in almost 20 years of trying to buy it, to my knowledge.  A few might have ended up in the TPG pops but if so, it's not any I don't have already.  Sellschopp sold in 1988, Ortiz in 1991 and Patterson in 1996.  Those are the only three collections I know which have the coins I am describing in any number.  Any others I know have a coin here or there or were sold even earlier.

As an example, Ortiz owned a 1768 Peru 1/2R described as a choice MS under current grading standards.  I own the NGC XF "Details" and it's easily the best I have seen in almost 20 years, by far.  It's one of the few and much better than the plate coin in my two reference books.  With a mintage of 612, 000, it presumably isn't absolutely rare but if you want to get an idea of the scarcity, take a look at the PCGS Coin Facts estimates for Liberty Seated half dimes along with the mintages.  Some may be scarcer absolutely where the mintage is much lower, but other than the unique 1870-S, I don't believe a single one is even close in any quality any advanced collector would want to buy.

So, what I am telling you is that you are thinking in the context of collecting a US series where practically any can be completed from anywhere between one day to a few months in "high quality" or at least a quality most collectors will accept.  Some of the higher availability is due to the much higher price level but mostly, it's because US coins US collectors consider "scarce" or "rare" are common and where it isn't, still not remotely hard to buy. 

As an example, outside of the 1913 LHN, 1933 Indian Head Eagle, and few Saints, I can reasonably expect that every single other 20th century US circulation strike and proof is either available right now or can be acquired in "high quality" in at most a few months (usually less). Every one of these series except for Indian Head eagles and Saints can be completed in "high quality" in one day.

What I am describing to you, this is a primary reason the type of coins I buy are of limited interest to hardly anyone.  It's too difficult to buy, even if the collector is otherwise interested.

1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Harvey wrote in for the Comments section of the 1933 Saints-Sotheby's Coinweek article earlier this month.

I was referring to the series of articles he wrote about the history of his firm which I found really interesting.  It was a throwback to the past, back to when the firm started and long before I was born.

He wasn't clear in the articles and while I doubt they ever catered to collectors filling holes in Whitman folders, my inference is that it used to be more of a retail coin shop many years ago.  Now, I doubt whatever inventory they carry is often below four figures.

20 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Stacks wants you to call-in with an appointment.  Not sure about HA, I am a registered bidder for their online I get the feeling they are a bit more low-brow than Stacks and you can probably walk-in off the street.  

I'll know in a few months. 

Aside from potential security issues, I infer it's also a screening method to keep window shoppers away who aren't going to spend any money anyway.  They have a limited retail inventory for sale on their website but I do not know if this is only a small fraction, most, or all of it.

If you ever read Harvey Stacks articles on Coin Week, I don't think they are the same type of firm they were a long time ago.  I might be wrong about that but I infer they would have dealt with a lower budget buyer in the past.

20 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Sounds like a great catch, congrats.  You might want to check out high-priced coin sales @ HA (or other online sources) and check their archives for commentary and information.  It not only might be new information you weren't aware of, but you can cut-and-paste into a Word/PDF document for your smartphone/PC if other sources aren't available that way. 

I look at Heritage regularly.

I am always on the lookout for coins in my series that I did not know existed before.  I have a noticeable proportion of the better ones in the NGC census and a few from PCGS where far fewer have been graded.  There are still a noticeable number illustrated in catalogs or as plate coins I have never seen offered for sale. 

The Ortiz sale occurred in 1991 when I wasn't aware of it and would not have the money to buy much of anything anyway.  The collection didn't have many in my series but does have six I had not seen before.  Now, I just have to wait for one to come up for sale and hope it is at auction where I can compete for it. 

One PCGS forum member collects a related series but he has the resources to have a dealer find coins for him.  I don't have the budget to do that.

20 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I want to check them out, along with Heritage, once Manhattan opens up again.

I went for lot viewing, in December 2006.  The impression I have is that they do not function as a retail outlet for the general public but I do not know if this is accurate.

19 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

By "he" you mean David Akers ?  Someone else ?

I went into the HA archives and punched up every sale of the Duckor Saints -- and some other premium Saints from other sales -- to not only get the descriptive information on the coins but the additional solo commentaries from David Akers.  With all of my DE and Saint books NOT in PDF/smarpthone format, I am able to cut-and-past them into Word and PDF formats for my phone and PC.

No.  "He" as in Ortiz.  The catalogue includes Latin America colonial only.  No US coins at all.  I also have the Sellshopp catalogue (same firm from 1988).  Norweb collected both US and world coinage.

The firm was the coin division of the Swiss Bank Corporation later known as Sincona.

6 minutes ago, Wesley Bird said:

Thank you for all the info! I used to live in North East New Jersey and spent a lot of time in NYC. 57th Ave has changed a lot recently. I am still researching the hoard but the coin I got appears to be just fine to me. They may have seen something they didn't like so it got no grade. My next step is to email them and ask what happened since they have pictures of it...

This is purely a guess but I assume it was done as a marketing tool by Stacks.  The coin may be eligible for a numerical grade but maybe the incremental grading fee was more than the incremental value add.  In other words, they made the same or more money marketing the coin without the grade through a bulk submission.

I just bought the catalogue for the Swiss Bank Corporation Sale #20, Ortiz Latin America collection.  Some really premium coins in there, including those he bought from Norweb and Sellshopp.

I went to the W 57th Street office once.  Thought it had a good atmosphere for a coin shop though I don't think of them as a retail outlet.

Sounds like it is from a hoard Stacks Bowers bought several years ago.  West 57th street is the old address of their shop in NYC.

4 hours ago, Lancek said:

So are you going to suggest a better source?  I can't say prices are exact.  But neither are the prices on NGCs US coin price guide.  I find them inflated by 10-20%.  Their world coins might be 30%+ high.  But at least it's a source people can access to give them an idea of what dates or MM might be key for a certain countries, series.  

Auctions and actual prices.

Krause prices are just "made up".  Possibly some coins listed in it which do not even exist and never did (1752 Peru 4R, 1933 South Africa circulation strike farthing), any number of coins with no publicly known sale at all (many Spanish colonial especially in the listed grades), and even more listings where the prices either have not changed in years (all South Africa Union and ZAR since 1998) or where it likely has not.

It is useful for attribution.  It is also somewhat useful for determining relative value but not otherwise.

2 hours ago, Lancek said:

Yeah, world coins are tougher.  A very niche market.  That's been my specialty lately.  But I know from experience local coin dealers are not always a fan.  Hard to value and turn.

NGC does have a world coin price guide.  They base their pricing off of data from Krause.  Who has historically been the go to company for US guides of world coins.  But their catalogs run $60-80 each.  One per century.  Nice that NGC offers info for free.  But I do find more mistakes with them.

If you post some of the more valuable world coins, I can dig through my Krause catalogs just to make sure NGC data matches.  Most of my catalogs are a couple years old.  And values have gone up a little.  Especially gold and silver.

Krause is of limited use in determining market value.  I can't say it's never reflective of current prices but if it is, it's entirely by accident and only because it's used as a reference point where the ask price matches it and someone pays it.

Good to hear it.

I knew 5 out of 10.  I forgot about Perth as a mint but knew the others.

Unless I missed something, I know three answers here.  I have no clue for #4 and #3 is 50-50.

I only know the answer to two of the questions and with one, it's partly due to multiple choice.  Of the collections you listed, I only know of one and that's because I looked at the catalog before it was sold.  My suspicion is that most reading your poll have never heard of any of them.

24 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

and they act like Army Intelligence trying to recover the Ark of The Covenant. 

Reading posts on US coin forums, the uninitiated novice might have a good reason to think that much of the trivial numismatic minutia is equally important.

4 hours ago, brg5658 said:

It is not a 5 sovereign.  It is a 2 kilogram hunk of gold with nominal value of £2000. 

My error.  I did not read the commentary completely.  I don't consider it a real coin either, similar to several China NCLT.