World Colonial

On 7/22/2022 at 3:55 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If folks are willing to buy ASEs at a slight-to-low premium to the underlying silver price...and that price rises too high for plain-vanilla ASEs....I think folks will turn to pure bullion coins or those close to it like circulated/worn Morgans or even bars etc.

My opinion too.

Maybe I missed it, but I understand the OP wants to buy raw coins.  For such common coins, I'd never do that.  There isn't a single Morgan dollar that is even close to hard to buy, unless it's a specific Sheldon grade (overwhelmingly top pop), VAM, or on occasion PL.

NGC has graded 337 XF-40 and 457 XF-45 1903-S with many more in PCGS holders.  If someone wants to buy one of these two grades, should be available in multiple, all the time.

If the buyer wants it raw, crack it out of the holder.

Sorry, you get what you pay for, most of the time.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

When I went to FUN 2020, all the Venezuelans I met blamed Hugo and Madero.  Venezuelans aren't stupid....they know they should be among the richest countries in the Western Hemisphere and they're at the bottom instead.

I didn't say either were exemplary leaders.  I especially think Hugo Chavez was awful.

I don't know whether most Venezuelans agree with US policy toward their country or not.  Somehow, I don't believe those you spoke to, being more affluent and presumably not even living there anymore, are representative of opinion in that country.

Whatever way you want to look at it, the sanctions failed to achieve the USG's publicly stated objective (driving both of them out) and made the lives of most Venezuelans worse.

The sanctions were and to the extent still in place are a failure.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Funds would be held in trust to buy Venezuelan people necessities, whereas Maduro wants to buy arms for Columbian and other South American leftists.  Only the U.S. can process the heavy sulfur crude that Venezuela produces.

Well, can't say I agree with Maduro's stated agenda (assuming it's accurate) but don't see it as any business of the US either.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Venezuela should be producing about 6 MM bbl./day....instead, they are are at best 1 MM/bbl.day. 

Oil is the primary reason I believe the US cares what happens in Venezuela.  

On 7/20/2022 at 4:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The country has lost close to $1 trillion dollars in oil revenue thanks to those Socialist clowns.

Yes, socialism is a disaster. 

Most South Americans love some form of it, overwhelmingly populists from everything I have seen and read.  Seems to be ingrained in their culture.  Regardless, it's still no business of the USG or any American.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:16 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Your concern should be authoratarian and dictatorial regimes

More BS

The government of another country is none of my business or any American.  Notice how the US has no problem with Saudia Arabia or other countries like it?  There is BS talk but nothing more.

On 7/20/2022 at 4:16 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Funny how the U.S. never has a terrorism or aggression or war problem with other democracies, right ? 

 

Neither does China, except with Taiwan which they claim as their territory for historical reasons.

Look, I'm not trying to bash the US.  I live here.  But I'm not going along with the pretense (which is a complete farce) that US foreign policy is virtuous because it isn't.  It's calculated self-interest, exactly as I would expect from any country.

The US government doesn't actually give a about "democracy".  That's another farce.  Look at what they do as opposed to what they say.  US has no problem dealing with dictatorships, when it's convenient.

If you look at the globe and where the US "get's along" or does not, there is a clear pattern, one which you are ignoring.  The US comes into conflict with countries that conflict with US interests, the ones deemed most important whatever that is.

On 7/20/2022 at 3:37 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That said....I think the U.S. will look to sanction Putin and his cronies rather than the Russian people, who are largely victims, too.

You mean like in Venezuela?  That's been a huge "success", crushing living standards or driving the population into poverty.

I've also read reports the US is trying to get Venezuelan oil to market.  So apparently, supporting "democracy" was vital then but can be ditched now, as I haven't heard that Maduro is out.

On 7/20/2022 at 3:37 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think there's a difference betwen naked aggression and a war of conquest vs. defensive wars aimed at elminating threats.  The U.S. was very clear for weeks or months or years before all of those situations and countries you referenced.  Putin (a dictator) lied about his intentions right up to the invasion.

BS

The US has and had no business in any of those countries.  All four of those countries are thousands of miles away from the US mainland and are/were in no position to attack US territory.

If you tell me otherwise (e.g., terrorism), it's US foreign policy that's the primary if not entire motive behind any attacks.  Terrorists don't typically go around attacking random countries that don't meddle in their internal affairs.  It happens but it's not from the sources I imply in your post.

Whatever the Russian lies, you're assuming the US didn't lie either.  I don't exactly know what to believe in this conflict, but I definitely don't believe everything the lying western media or lying US State Department claim.

The primary reason Americans hold the cavalier attitude you just expressed (which is the norm, not the exception) is due to geography and history. It's the belief that the US can interfere in or militarily attack other countries with impunity without any "blowback".  It's a feature of US foreign policy, not a bug because that's how Imperial powers act.

Current US policy became a regular habit starting in the mid-90s.  Given that the US claims to have a "strategic interest" over literally every single square inch on the planet, I'll let you infer where this is headed.

That's my concern.  

On 7/20/2022 at 3:40 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I see Russia and the Ukraine like Nazi Germany and Poland, 1939.  

I do not.  No good guys here (sorry) and this includes the US.  

On 7/20/2022 at 3:40 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But unlike France and Great Britain, we're just sending arms and boycotts not mobilizing the reserves.

Yes, that's what it is now, from the western viewpoint but not Russia's.  If you are them, it's close to total economic war.  I'm not convinced it won't become a "hot" one later, as I consider US foreign policy insane.

On 7/20/2022 at 10:05 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Look, the double-counting drives me nuts too.  You have to ask yourself what coins and in what grades are likely to be re-submitted and which are not.  

I think this is relatively easy to infer.  It's most often going to be the grades where there is a big price variance between two grades which is "meaningful".  This is the starting point.

On 7/20/2022 at 12:55 PM, zadok said:

...true rarity had a way of making itself known by its absence...that hasnt changed, the biggest benefit of the tpg censuses is the grades....

A lot of apparent rarity or scarcity is just the low price.  It's hard or harder to buy but not necessarily or actually so because owners have limited incentive to sell it, some or many don't even know they have it, and dealers can't be bothered to market it, such as by listing it on their websites.

Most coins are a lot more common than is (apparently) evident from the supply for sale.  The experience of most collectors is not necessarily representative of the supply, unless the coin is known to be common.  Usually, it isn't.

On 7/20/2022 at 12:33 PM, zadok said:

...i agree on the reparations for ukraine...if theres someone here willing to wield the big stick, doubtful at present..

I think you misread my sentiments. 

I've read that Ukraine has called for it, using Russia's FX reserves.  That's what I was referring to, not that I think they should pay it.  But I'll change my mind, as soon as the US pays reparations to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya, at minimum.  

When does anyone think that's going to happen?

I didn't think so.

On 7/20/2022 at 12:33 PM, zadok said:

..im just wondering which country is going to blink first...the only president that got this right was Reagan n i dont see him anywhere in sight....

I don't believe the US should be part of it.  Anyone who thinks otherwise should join the Ukrainian military.  Some reportedly have and nothing stopping anyone else.

US has declared near total economic war on Russia and is directly involved in the conflict.  That's what the sanctions and arming one of the combatants represents.  It's not even a proxy war and it's an example of how US foreign policy has totally gone "off the rails" in the 21st century, risking direct war with the largest or second largest nuclear power.

As for "blinking", depends upon the timeframe.  I didn't anticipate this region as a "hotspot" (looking at the Middle East and Western Pacific for that) but now that it's started, longer term I expect it to turn into a wider conflict.

On 7/20/2022 at 10:11 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

(3)  The dollar situation vis a vis Russia was about naked aggression, lies, and deceit.  

Do you really want me to go there? 

On 7/20/2022 at 10:11 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The United States is light-years ahead of other countries in terms of rule of law, due process, and private property rights. 

Light years ahead of countries like Switzerland?  That's breaking news.

On 7/20/2022 at 10:11 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The U.S. hasn't confiscated Russian assets, merely frozen them.  Big difference.

No, not yet.  Just like the BoE didn't confiscate Venezuela's gold, yet.  

Here is what I think is going to happen.  It will be used to pay "reparations" to Ukraine.

On 7/19/2022 at 9:49 PM, VKurtB said:

These sorts of unsure estimates tend to drive crazy newer people who dive in heavily all at once. “Investors” like certainty. They ain’t-a gonna get it in this field. If you can’t enjoy the journey more than the payoff, you’re not going to like coins. 

Survivorship isn't really relevant to most collectors or buyers because most of the coins they buy are so common any margin of error doesn't make any difference.  It mostly becomes relevant for the ranking (where the coin places in terms of quality or TPG grade) such as "top pops".

On 7/20/2022 at 12:49 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

They've been selling for years.  And if everyone wants to sell dollars, I hope they like their currencies going up by 20-50%.

Their exporters also might have something to say. 

Every non-US entity cannot sell.  Due to US current account deficits, someone has to own these USD all the time, in the aggregate.  China can only "dump" it by either buying US based assets or goods/services or exchange it with another non-US entity who then has to hold it.

Yes, exporters might not like it.  Many governments (not specifically just China) might decide to reduce their USD reserves (drastically) anyway.  It's better than having their FX reserves frozen or confiscated later effectively giving away their production for free.

On 7/19/2022 at 6:53 PM, VKurtB said:

I also don’t have any idea where PCGS Coin Facts pop estimates come from. It always seems so arbitrary and unreasonable. 

I'd like to be able to analyze the data using a computer program, but not with Excel spreadsheets.  All I have done is manual look-up and it's inefficient and time consuming.

Some of the numbers come from actual research to my knowledge, where someone has actually made some attempt to itemize the survivors.  Like the 1794 dollars, 1796-1797 half dollars, and 1802 half dime.  The discrepancy between the 1802 half dime and these three other coins is noticeable though for what's available recently.

Other estimates I presume come from surveys, like for EAC and Capped Bust halves.  But if the Bust Half Nut Club provided the estimates, I don't see how the numbers could be so low.

The rest of it?  Presumably either a guesstimate or just "made up".  Many estimates for MS-65 or MS-60 on the earlier scarcer coinage I think might be too high, though I am in no position to say which ones.  Definitely duplicates on expensive coins in the TPG data, so not sure how many more are reasonably out there.

Others just make no sense where it's obvious no one performed a sanity check, like the one I gave of the 1807 DB half and the 1921(D) dimes.  It's ridiculous to claim a survival rate of 1/5 of 1% for two coins struck less than 20 years prior to the introduction of folder collecting.  Estimates for the IHC seem way too low (across the board) to my recollection.  An example is the 1894 where supposdely150 for MS-60+ remain.  Not only is this less than the current count, but the price doesn't support it or hardly any duplicates.  It would be a key date, if so few actually exist.  Another is the Liberty Seated series generally.  Many of these coins are legitimately scarce, but that's a combination of low mintages, limited MM collecting at the time, and geographical distance.  The supposed survival rate for the subsidiary mints seems way out of line with the Philadelphia coinage.  I don't think hardly any of the "P" coins have the estimates claimed, unless there is specific evidence to support it.

I am a lot more familiar with specific non-US coins.  Heritage estimated 50 for the 1941 Sarawak cent but the count is 46 with 37 MS and likely no duplicates.  It's a scarce coin but I'd estimate at least several hundred exist.  There is a thread on the PCGS forum covering the Chile Volcano Peso series where some of the estimates (taken from those who are supposed to know) are really low but the mintages are not, for the time.  I don't think this series is usually scarcer than the Peru pillar 4R where I estimate most dates probably have 50-100 but could be somewhat more.  It's 45-62 years older and the mintages are mostly lower too.

On 7/19/2022 at 8:19 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Pound down 15% in the last year.

My brother lives in Canada, near Halifax.  I'm hoping for a big move in the USD-CAD rate before I retire and a big haircut in their housing prices with it.  I'd at least spend summers there as opposed to here, assuming I could also resolve medical insurance.

On 7/19/2022 at 7:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

For us retail buyers, yes.  But if you want to sell TONS of gold, only a few buyers for that quantity are available.

Well, China has about $1T in UST.  Must be some way they can work something out with a third country to diversify their FX and sovereign wealth holdings.  They aren't the only ones either.  Problems is, everyone can't do it at once.

On 7/19/2022 at 2:59 PM, VKurtB said:

Keep in mind that THE MOST OFTEN GRADED COIN is the American Silver Eagle. And nothing else even comes close. 

I've looked at the TPG data extensively for US and somewhat for world coinage, depending upon the series and country.  I'm quite familiar with the data.  I'm aware that NCLT represents an outsized proportion of the pop data outside the US.

On 7/19/2022 at 2:59 PM, VKurtB said:

You might want to check with Mr. Lange about your pre-1933 estimate. We are at a troubling place in which the absolute majority of slabbed coins have no business being in slabs, at the same time that the estimates of unslabbed coins that arguably should be, is woefully underestimated. I was once shown a complete Barber Half Dollar set in a Dansco album, and every coin in there was VF-XF or better, most much better. That was in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

I'm not sure what you mean here, since I thought I agree with your claim.

The TPG data is a lot less than PCGS Coin Facts estimates, even with duplicates.  I'n my prior post. i'm not just referring to later pre-1933 silver and base metal coinage either, since this coinage disproportionately isn't worth grading economically.  With coinage such as common Capped Bust halves, I think PCGS Coin Facts is far too low.  No way out of five or six million only 10,000 max survive.  After writing the above posts, I checked eBay and all the common dates have hundreds right now, including 508 raw for the 1834.  Most should never be sent in (mostly problem coins presumably) but the number which are eligible with high enough numerical grades is certainly a multiple of current counts.

My step-grandmother was someone who had one of those Pennsylvania type collections you write about.  I saw it once, in 1975. 

I don't know what happened to it, but she had at least one 10X10 SDB with most series from cents to half dollars starting with capped bust plus US copper starting in 1794.   No flowing hair or draped bust silver.  Hundreds of Virginia half pennies, large cents, half cents, and capped bust halves plus one or more Whitman folders of the rest.  I don't remember Liberty Seated or Barber halves plus Capped Bust or Liberty Seated quarters, but she had everything else. 

She was from "old" money born in 1906, never worked a day in her life, and never did without to my knowledge even in the Depression.  I infer her family acquired most if not everything out of circulation.  Nothing high grade but little "dreck" either.  Don't remember about key dates.  We were at the bank for a few hours and when she saw that I wanted to compile a list, would have nothing of it.  It would have taken weeks to catalogue it properly.

On 7/19/2022 at 3:42 PM, VKurtB said:

With the euro similarly not participating in Russian gold transactions, things might be different. 

Ever seen China's definition of the "international community"?  It's an accurate one but the world is bigger than that.

insufficiently_thoughtful_persons at the US State Department declare China biggest long-term strategic threat (which is accurate) but still expect them to support US policy versus Russia.  That's never going to happen.  China knows that if sanctions succeed in "breaking" Russia economically, they are the next target.  Divide and conquer.

That's why they are going to backstop Russia to the end, and they should.  It won't always be openly and they will undoubtedly drive a hard bargain with Russia in any deals they make, but they are still going to do it.

Other countries (especially larger ones) are also going to act in their own national interest, when it suits them.  The US can sanction every country on the planet who has the "audacity" to ignore US demands if they want.  Good luck with that. 

On 7/19/2022 at 12:37 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Oil is being sold but at a 20-30% discount to the listed Brent price.

I suspect any gold sales might be similarly discounted.  Could explain the recent weakness.

 

You may know otherwise, but I read somewhere that Ural crude (the Russian one) normally sells at a "noticeable" discount to Brent.  No idea if this is true but if it is, might not be as much of much of a bargain as commonly believed.  Sure, Russia needs the cash, but their customers also need the oil at least as much.  So, it isn't like the buyers have all the leverage.

There are many different grades of crude, but I don't know the number.  Presumably most who follow markets are aware of Brent and WTI but otherwise, suspect the public (and maybe the writers who report it) assume that all are the same when it isn't.

As for gold, I'd be really surprised if the discount was more than minimal, assuming there is one at all.  Gold is a lot easier to sell than other commodities.

On 7/19/2022 at 10:04 AM, zadok said:

...theoretically u r correct, at least on paper, but in reality theories dont always translate...im sure the tpgs could provide a breakdown of "individual collector based" submitters versus "dealer business oriented"  submitters to get the real %  motivations for submissions, but dont hold ur breath on that...certification isnt a one size fits all determination...of course, the big elephant in the room is the drive for monetary gain on cert coins versus raw coins, but its not all consuming...the dealers still need the collectors to sell to, if there were no dealers n if the tpgs still existed (doubtful) the collectors would still cert their coins, just at a vastly reduced volume...it would look much like coin collecting in the '50-'80s just no 2 x 2s...as for the grading n postal costs, im not sure thats a factor, i for one dont give it any consideration, same as the price of milk n bread, if i want/need milk n bread i buy milk n bread...registry sets, as u mention a rounding error, very small numbers, just nice fluff for collectors to look at n show their pride n joys , self included....

My prior post is an inference but no, it doesn't apply to everyone.

Having a breakdown between collectors and dealers wouldn't confirm or contradict what I wrote.  It's apparent that dealers will usually submit a coin if the marginal sales price exceeds the all-in cost of submission (including to compensate for their time) but yes, you are correct that many collectors may submit just because they want their coins in a holder.

I don't think the volume is very high for this type of collector, not as a proportion of the total.  A noticeable number of collectors are also concurrently on-line sellers and I assume a noticeable proportion of collector submissions are actually for resale.

On 7/18/2022 at 9:38 PM, zadok said:

...we may be missing the point here, not all certified coins need be rare nor expensive...the reasons r diverse for having a coin certified, n its value is not the sole consideration for doing so...from a collectors point of view the cost of grading may be inconsequential, where as a dealer must consider a point of diminishing returns...as to the orig question at hand, its almost a certainty that the number of certified coins hasnt even approached the midpoint of all available coins, prob more like 15%...in the geographical areas vkurt mentioned, there may only be 1 or 2 certified coins in estate auctions of several hundred coins...and WC is also correct that virtually all post-'33 US coins r common n certification raises the question of warranted certification expenses...but i do not think that the tpgs r going to run out of items to certify...theres always the bubblegum from all those baseball cards if all else fails....

The motive behind certification is something like 95% to 99% financial. It's overwhelmingly to improve marketability, to make it easier to sell the coin at a higher price, if not at the time of submission, then later.  For myself, I accumulate raw coins over time and send it in intermittently but the only need to do is so that if I "kick the bucket", my heirs can sell it easier.  Otherwise, it makes no difference.

Certification for registry set competition is a rounding error of total volume.  Certification for authentication is a lot more important for some coins than others but also predominantly correlated to the value.

The problem I see for the TPG longer term is that the cost of grading and postage is going to increase (noticeably) faster than prices for most coins.  Since 99%+ don't participate in registry sets and never will, there is no point in submitting a coin where the incremental value is less than the grading fee or even about the same.  

On 7/18/2022 at 7:50 PM, RWB said:

Not if they can't pay for it. Transactions are blocked, so all Russian dictators get are IOUs.

Obviously aren't getting paid in USD if they have any common sense.  They were fooled by the assumption that the US wouldn't weaponize the USD.  I can't imagine they would stupid enough to do that again.

There will be plenty of other buyers.

On 7/18/2022 at 12:18 PM, VKurtB said:

Stack is right, Garrett is woefully wrong. In the eastern mountain regions, including but not limited to Pennsylvania, there are VAST numbers of raw coins in collections held in families for generations. Garrett’s opinion is created by what he does. If all you did week after week was to set up at show after show, or do business in Kentucky, you’d see the same stuff over and over too. You have to hunt ducks where the ducks are. You have to get into the Trans-Appalachian towns at local estate auctions where this material comes out. The raw coins are out there. You have to go to THEM; for the most part, they ain’t gonna be coming to you. Watch the summer ANA show NEXT year, in Pittsburgh. Some new stuff will appear. Chicago is becoming a big honkin’ bore. 
 

Philly WOULD BE even better, but the hyper-corrupt labor unions suck all the value out of being there. 

Post 1933 US coinage is known to be common, outside of TPG era inventions. 

For pre-1933 US, most of it isn't worth the expense of grading either, but I still assume the supply is usually a lot more than is apparent now.  On the common coinage, I think Coin Facts is way off, understating the supply.  A few examples include:

Common date Bust halves have estimates of 10,000 or less, though it's not clear to me whether the date estimate includes varieties.  I'd guess 50,000 to 60,000 (minimum) is probably more accurate which is still only 1% of the mintage.

1921 and 1921D Mercury dimes are estimated at 2,000 and 3,500.  That's a fraction of 1% for two coins struck less than 20 years prior to the introduction of coin folders.  It's also comparable to the 1807 Draped Bust half estimated at 3000 which makes no sense.  I'd guess the actual number is at least 10X, though disproportionately in low grades.

On 3/24/2022 at 12:21 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

In theory, outside of moderns and maybe a long inventory of foreign/ancients, most valuable domestic U.S. coins should already be graded/certified, so no future business possible.  Of course, there are always crack-outs. 

Jeff Garrett wrote a similar opinion piece in Coin Week expressing your view.  Harvey Stack wrote a comment that his experience contradicted it.

If you've looked at the TPG data and Coin Facts estimates, quite a bit covering many US series even though I don't buy any of it, it's widely known that the TPG counts are distorted by resubmissions but if Coin Facts is directionally accurate, in most instances there are more ungraded than graded, though of course there is a wide variation depending upon the coin.  I'm referring to pre-1933 US below the highest grades.

As one example, the last time I checked, NGC and PCGS recorded 15 (including details coins) for the 1802 half dime.  The accepted estimate I recall is 35-40.  NGC had three and all are AU-50, probably the same coin. 

So, what happened to the others, as the estimate to my recollection was based upon identifying specific individual coins?  Some may have been lost, but I doubt it's 20-25.  Maybe some in the estimate are also duplicates, but still unlikely most.