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Greetings Collectors,
The dawn of a new year and a new decade will be a "double edged" sword. I have followed prices closely on several different popular series through the course of this year and have come to the somewhat disappointing conclusion that all of the lacking spots in my sets are becoming more and more expensive. I have watched dozens of worthy specimens be bid far in excess of what I was willing to pay based on past auctions of the exact same coin of similar eye appeal and the same grade. And now as I have cut way back on my spending, I watch coin after coin sell for way more than I am willing to pay. In 2009 I purchased several dozen silver and gold coins but for this entire past year I can count the acquisitions of merit on less than two hands. Teletrade was an auction venue that I patronized weekly and sometimes would make one, two or more buys in each of their then, 3 auctions a week. My Teletrade purchases for 2010 has been 5 total coins. There have been many nice coins listed there but the prices even before the buyers fee have been at times, sometimes 30% higher than I was willing to pay.
On the flip side, this bodes well for the coins we all own already. Precious metals have a great deal to do with this I'm sure. But I'm not convinced that our hobby is growing by leaps and bounds. In fact I think the best that can be said is that we may be just holding our own. Many collectors are older like myself, and I believe that more of us are dieing than are beginning the hobby. I think back to as little as 2005 and 2006 when I was buying MS-62 $20 double eagles for $6-$700. Now the same coins are in the "high teens". The fact that gold has doubled is the obvious reason for these coins but there are many Walker and Franklin halves that have "skyrocketed" in this same time frame and many have not only doubled in price but tripled and better.
I am of the belief that at least twice as many auctions need to be followed if not more just to snag a single nice coin. And the price again, way in excess of what feels comfortable. But, again on the "flip side" this is all "well & good" if you are selling rather than buying. Double edged swords are great for "slashing" on both sides.
I have mentioned the silver to gold ratio in each of my posts and I just looked back to when I started doing this religiously, and it was on Oct. 14th and it took 56.265 ounces of silver to be equal to one ounce of gold. Right now just a few minutes ago Apmex.com had the price of gold at $1422.50 and the price of silver at $30.94 That brings that silver to gold ratio down to 45.976 My last post, a week or so ago, had the ratio at 47+ These have been huge moves in both metals but silver is blowing gold away with no end in sight.
About the only thing I know I will buy in this 1st month of the new year is a roll of the new 2011 silver eagles when they are available for shipment on 1/14/11 The price today for the roll is almost $35 per coin. That's nearly $700 for a roll of 20. My 1st roll I ever bought was the 1996's and I paid $120 ($6.00 per coin) when silver was a little over $3 per ounce. Now I am fortunate to know that I own a roll of all 25 dates but it pains me to think these 2011 coins will cost more than the 1st 4 rolls of silver eagles I ever bought. But I really feel I need to move on them before they are $800 a roll. If silver reaches $50 by this time next year, and I firmly believe it will, that means the rolls of 2012's will be possibly in excess of $1,000 for a single roll. Whew! Any of you that are interested in getting your 2011 silver eagles early to send in for the "ER" designation check out Apmex. They have all bullion items along with gorgeous quality coins by PCGS, NGC & Anacs. I've dealt with them many times and have actually sent off single "raw" gold and silver eagles and got MS-70's on most of them, just to give you an example of the quality of their products.
We are beginning to enter a land that I would not have dreamed possible 10 years ago. All of our gold and silver coins while being worth more, will start to price many of us completely out of this market. Bottom line for me is that I'm making 50% less today than I was in that period of time where $20 gold was way less than half what the cost is today. It is very sad that coins that were once within my grasp are suddenly out of my financial reach. So I guess now I can compare it to a boxer that could once go toe to toe with the best of them, now being reduced to being only a spectator and reminiscing about the past. I sincerely feel that "quality" coin collecting is quickly becoming a thing of the past for many including myself. I'm just wondering if it's just me or are those of you out there that feel the same?
Regardless I still love the hobby but holding a valuable collection is not near as much fun as the continued procurement of those pieces that made the collection what it is today. Pictured here is one of just a few coins that I was lucky enough to procure earlier this year. A mid 19th century $2.50 Liberty to fit into the mint set I'm attempting of that same year. Sure would love to have gotten that 53-O "no arrows" half dime that "Electric Peak" picked up. Oh well, maybe this year...
I wish a Happy New Year to all of you and your families and an enduring love for this "Hobby of Kings".
Happy Collecting!
WKF
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