1803 Draped Bust Half New Purchase & Obvious Collecting Bias

[TomB]

Today I received an 1803 Draped Bust half (DBH) in an ANACS VG8 holder. In my opinion, the coin is accurately graded, is more-or-less original and has superior eye appeal compared to most coins from this series, regardless of grade. This is a series that has been dear to me for some time, and I have never found a satisfactory 1803 in all my searches. The ideal 1803 for me would be a VF or EF coin with original, dark surfaces that show no evidence of mishandling and no marks that are not contemporary with original circulation. Unfortunately, although this is a very nice VG8, it certainly is not what I am looking for in this coin and, although I will keep this coin, the search will continue.

What I find amazing is how much, or more accurately how little, this coin cost to acquire. The original mintage for this date was a then-robust 188,234 pieces, which can be put into perspective for more recent coinage by comparing it to the following “rarities”-

 

1877 Indian Head cent 852,500

1909-S VDB Lincoln cent 484,000

1916-D Mercury dime 264,000

1896-S Barber quarter 188,039

1901-S Barber quarter 72,664

1916 Standing Liberty quarter 52,000

1932-D Washington quarter 436,800

1932-S Washington quarter 408,000

1921 Walking Liberty half 246,000

1921-D Walking Liberty half 208,000

 

Of course, there are other coins, but this list should be fairly representative. The mintage of the 1803 DBH falls quite comfortably within the range of these well-known and generally expensive key dates. The mintage for this coin is also somewhat deceptive when one considers that the number of coins extant plays an enormous role in price. The half dollars of this era contained approximately 7% more silver in them than the half dollars of a half-century later. This difference in weight may well have contributed to the destruction of a perhaps large percentage of the original mintage, and this percentage lost through intentional melting cannot be known.

 

However, what can be known is the approximate number of extant pieces based upon the considerable work put into the research of early half dollars by the Bust Half Nut Club (BHNC). The BHNC issued its latest rarity ratings for early half dollars in the summer of 2004 and the total number of 1803 DBH examples estimated to exist in all grades combined and all die pairings combined is between 804 and 2,000 coins. If we desire a single number to work with we might take the maximum coins estimated to survive and our number of 2,000 represents 1.1% of the total mintage. That’s it. Stunningly, a 203-year old half dollar from a very attractive series, in a collector friendly mid-grade, certified by a major TPG, which is largely original and that has a total maximum survivorship of at most 2,000 coins and likely substantially fewer cost less than $200.

 

I find this amazing. Greysheet bid for the grade is only $120 and is woefully inadequate. I decided to put the cost of this coin into perspective by comparing it to numismatic pieces that can easily be replaced with little effort. Unfortunately, almost all the comparisons listed below are for modern coinage and this was not done in an attempt to bash modern pieces. Rather, the pieces chosen were included for their ease of acquisition and comparable price. Therefore, for the money that this 1803 DBH set me back, I could have bought any one of the currently available lots listed below-

 

1) Two rolls of MS silver Washington quarters from the 1960s

2) Two 1,000 coin ($50 face value) bags of general circulation 2006 Jefferson nickels directly from the US Mint

3) Two 20th Anniversary American Silver Eagle three coin sets directly from the US Mint

4) Five MS Franklin commemorative dollars directly from the US Mint

5) One 1881-S NGC MS65 Morgan dollar from Heritage

 

In my opinion, there is an enormous difference in value represented in the 1803 VG8 DBH vs. any of the lots listed. Obviously, the DBH would be significantly tougher to find, but would not be any more difficult to sell and may very well be more liquid. The comparison to the 1881-S Morgan dollar is truly amazing when one considers the PCGS population is 40,205 coins in MS65 for this date alone with 11,180 coins graded higher while the NGC population is 36,550 coins in MS65 for this date alone with 12,949 coins graded higher. Therefore, between PCGS and NGC they have graded 76,755 1881-S Morgan dollars in MS65 and an additional 24,129 1881-S Morgan dollars in MS66 or better. This total of 100,884 coins for the 1881-S Morgan dollar represents approximately 54% of the total original mintage of the 1803 DBH, yet the generic MS65 1881-S trades for essentially equal money to the 1803 DBH.

 

Let me please acknowledge that the market is driven by supply and demand and that there are far more collectors, investors and hoarders of generic Morgan dollars than there are collectors of early half dollars. It should also be apparent that mass marketing of high grade Morgan dollars can be easily achieved because of their enormous numbers and fluid supply whereas marketing of early half dollars is at most a boutique shop endeavor. The same can be written for the currently available US Mint products listed in comparison and the bullion related silver rolls of Washington quarters.

 

Nonetheless, my collecting bias and interest are astounded by the perceived value of this 1803 DBH in comparison with certain other segments of the market.

[Bruceswar]

Tom thats a sweet coin! I love it!

[zrlevin]

Tom, that coin is a beauty!

 

If you ever find her a replacement and tire of her, just let me know.

[michael]

[WinstonWare]

Great coin and a nice thread with some interesting information to boot

[supertooth]

Tom----Just read your PM that I just sent to you---BEFORE I read this post. Certainly we are in the same phone booth. Bob [supertooth]

[James_OldeTowne]

I agree with everything stated, and this is a classic example where the value of something is driven less by absolute rarity than by demand, which is low relative to the other coins you mentioned. What needs to be explored is the reason that demand is so low for these.

 

One important factor is in a sense mundane - yet important. That is, most collectors would consider all of the coins mentioned to be artistically more "attractive" than the draped bust design, with the possible exception of the Barber coinage. Furthermore, just as a type coin, it is much easier to obtain "pretty" examples of the other coins than it is the DBHs, and again, the inclination is to perceive the other series as being visually superior.

 

Of course, the demand for coins that lead to completion of the other series mentioned is far stronger than for DBHs. Few collectors would bother to put together a date set of these early coins because it would amount to a collection of just six coins! Even putting in major varieties, it's still ten coins or fewer, and nobody wants to bother with a collection so small.

 

These are just some of my theories, but I personally think the 1803 and 1805 dates are both highly underrated. 1801 and 1802 used to be as well, but they have escalated in value rapidly in recent years, reflecting well-deserved respect for the difficulty of obtaining examples of either one. As you mentioned, most all of the nice, original '03s are strongly held in long-term collections, and it is very difficult to find a nice example (and this is true of the '05 as well). I like your coin very much!

[WinstonWare]

most collectors would consider all of the coins mentioned to be artistically more "attractive" than the draped bust design

 

Really? I love the DBH and CBH designs

[SkyMan]

Great coin and a nice thread with some interesting information to boot

 

Ditto the above.

 

I also am one of those people who believe that the Draped Bust design (with Heraldic Eagle) to be one of the pretties designs, if not the prettiest, that the mint ever produced.

[EZ_E]

Great coin and a nice thread with some interesting information to boot

 

Ditto the above.

 

I also am one of those people who believe that the Draped Bust design (with Heraldic Eagle) to be one of the pretties designs, if not the prettiest, that the mint ever produced.

 

Ex-zactly! Great eye-appeal for a great series! I'm also flabbergasted that they are so reasonably priced.

[chinook]

Looks like I'm gonna have to start hoarding 1803 bust halves now.

 

Great thread TomB!!

[Wihlborg]

Tom,

 

I know you like them a little darker, and maybe with a little more meat, but that is one very good looking coin.

 

BTW, great post also.

 

John

[IGWT]

Excellent thread, Tom. A comparable date of value in the Shield 5c series is the 1879 with a mintage of just 29,100 pieces; total population of 85 at PCGS and 46 at NGC. Graysheet bid is $375 in VG and $1,500 in MS65.

[WhiteTornado]

Thanks for sharing your usual top-notch analysis.

[World Colonial]

I agree with the original post. And yes, this is my favorite US coin design.

 

The points on the market disparities in pricing are also well taken, but they are to the advantage of the serious collector. Many older coins are a better relative value than more recent issues and this especially applies to conditional rarities.

 

This is a US coin post, but if a collector really wants a good deal, they should consider adding foreign coins to their collection. It is really amazing how far a few hundred dollars will go in most series...like $200 to $500 for mint state coins from the 1600's and 1700's, when you can find them.

[toyonakataro]

I usually don't care for coins graded VF or less, but your bust half has a look

[James_OldeTowne]

most collectors would consider all of the coins mentioned to be artistically more "attractive" than the draped bust design

 

Really? I love the DBH and CBH designs

Winston, so do I!

 

BUT ..... you and I are not "most" collectors !

[Bruceswar]

most collectors would consider all of the coins mentioned to be artistically more "attractive" than the draped bust design

 

Really? I love the DBH and CBH designs

Winston, so do I!

 

BUT ..... you and I are not "most" collectors !

 

Most collectors tend to like what the can afford... so State quarters and Moderns are popular... I personally Love Bust coins!

[WinstonWare]

James, that was an honest question. I was just surprised to hear that most collectors prefer other designs.

[relicsncoins]

Thanks a lot Tom!!!! Now I have to go try and find me one of those.

 

JJ

[James_OldeTowne]

James, that was an honest question. I was just surprised to hear that most collectors prefer other designs.

Hi Winston. I was just kidding around a little, but I think that overall, if you polled a random sampling of collectors, I believe a pretty sizeable majority would rank bust coinage lower than Walkers, Mercs and such in terms of aesthetic beauty. But I don't know that for a fact!

[pendragon1998]

Most collectors tend to like what the can afford... so State quarters and Moderns are popular... I personally Love Bust coins!

 

Well, I can't afford them, but I like them, so where does that leave us?

[Bruceswar]

Most collectors tend to like what the can afford... so State quarters and Moderns are popular... I personally Love Bust coins!

 

Well, I can't afford them, but I like them, so where does that leave us?

 

Outcast I guess..