Is Gold too High to Buy Now? 1 1

[zadok]

On 5/19/2024 at 5:22 PM, Henri Charriere said:

TRANSLATION:

@World Colonial WAS INTUITIVELY CORRECT IN EVERYTHING HE HAS SAID TO DATE... and, to my personal knowledge, as regarding his comments published on this site, he has never boasted, bragged, belittled others, exaggerated, embellished, embroidered, or uttered any statements that cannot be substantiated.  His complete transparency allows viewers to assess the member, his areas of interest in coins and modest admissions in his disappointments as well as triumphs.  If you were to ask me something about this collector, a flood of information surfaces -- all of it not only plausible and credible -- but resounding with the ring of truth.

Ask your average member about the subject of this inquiry and, like a former president, you will be deluged with superlatives and goaded into providing more general information. Your response will most closely resemble the following emoji:  

Re: GOLD:  sad to say but for those who are younger, your best strategy would be to wait and see. You can afford to take risks. Regular purchases at intervals to diversify your portfolio is a wise approach; otherwise Buy Low and Sell High.  Do not predicate any course of action you choose to engage in solely on the strength of the muted bark of a junkyard dog enamored of a hermit crab-like approach to fellow members conducted in absolute secrecy. To my knowledge, the Mukhabarat, if active, has no jurisdiction in the United States.

...to summarize:...nothing to add....

[zadok]

On 5/19/2024 at 5:56 PM, VKurtB said:

Where are gold’s earnings? Better still, where are gold’s dividends? Odder still, where is gold’s preferential capital gains treatment? It doesn’t exist. Normal income marginal rate. Gold is a VASTLY underperforming asset, almost by act of LAW. 

...accurate, but not the purpose for gold...the litmus test is..."at the end of the day, would u prefer a pocket full of gold or a basket full of greenbacks?"....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/20/2024 at 8:26 AM, zadok said:

...accurate, but not the purpose for gold...the litmus test is..."at the end of the day, would u prefer a pocket full of gold or a basket full of greenbacks?"....

I'm not asking either question....I just think gold goes higher over the next 5-10 years.....and since I like collecting coins, I get to "double-dip" by investing in something that goes up in price. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/20/2024 at 8:23 AM, zadok said:

...to summarize:...nothing to add....

I believe it was Alexander Woollcott, a regular at the Algonquin Hotel's Round Table who famously dismissed a clueless  comment a "critic" wrote as positively "miscellaneous."  Maybe it's you who ought to get out more...

[VKurtB]

On 5/20/2024 at 7:26 AM, zadok said:

...accurate, but not the purpose for gold...the litmus test is..."at the end of the day, would u prefer a pocket full of gold or a basket full of greenbacks?"....

Truthfully, I’d rather have the stock and bond portfolio I presently have. It’s doing very well. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/20/2024 at 12:20 PM, VKurtB said:

Truthfully, I’d rather have the stock and bond portfolio I presently have. It’s doing very well. 

No disagreement.  For the small % that many have in gold and for those who collect gold coins strictly for numismatic reasons and not gold-investing reasons....it's just a nice tailwind to have over the next 5-10 years.

[VKurtB]

On 5/20/2024 at 11:42 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

No disagreement.  For the small % that many have in gold and for those who collect gold coins strictly for numismatic reasons and not gold-investing reasons....it's just a nice tailwind to have over the next 5-10 years.

I don’t see any tailwind lasting that long. Gold ALWAYS overcorrects, in BOTH directions. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/20/2024 at 1:54 PM, VKurtB said:

I don’t see any tailwind lasting that long. Gold ALWAYS overcorrects, in BOTH directions. 

Since the market has been allowed to dictate the price, the price of gold tends to go up parabolically for 5-10 years and then correct and go NOWEHERE for 1-2 decades.

I think a new gold bull market started in 2018-19 at about $1,400.  I think we can at least triple if not go up 4-5 fold (forget about a 6-10 fold rise).  Even if you use the 2015 low of about $1,050 we still have room to run.

Gold fundamentals -- supply and demand -- look great for years out.

Edited May 20 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 5/20/2024 at 11:06 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm not asking either question....I just think gold goes higher over the next 5-10 years.....and since I like collecting coins, I get to "double-dip" by investing in something that goes up in price. 

...gasoline keeps going up, but i dont double-dip n store it away...is it an "investment" as well?...u have stated gold is not an investment vehicle many times before n i agree but i keep buying it at all levels n do not sell, it serves a much different purpose, as long as u can carry it all n run fast....

Edited May 20 by zadok
spelling

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/20/2024 at 5:48 PM, zadok said:

...gasoline keeps going up, but i dont double-dip n store it away...is it an "investment" as well?...u have stated gold is not an investment vehicle many times before n i agree but i keep buying it at all levels n do not sell, it serves a much different purpose, as long as u can carry it all n run fast....

Not an "investment" in the sense that without dividends, growth, or income....it will likely NOT compound over a long period of time.

[zadok]

On 5/20/2024 at 12:20 PM, VKurtB said:

Truthfully, I’d rather have the stock and bond portfolio I presently have. It’s doing very well. 

...but does it jingle when u walk?....

[zadok]

On 5/20/2024 at 11:27 AM, Henri Charriere said:

I believe it was Alexander Woollcott, a regular at the Algonquin Hotel's Round Table who famously dismissed a clueless  comment a "critic" wrote as positively "miscellaneous."  Maybe it's you who ought to get out more...

...summarizing:...nothing plus nothing equals nothing....

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/20/2024 at 6:03 PM, zadok said:

...summarizing:...nothing plus nothing equals nothing....

Certifiably miscellaneous and a fine autobiographical example of a defense mechanism:  projection.

[zadok]

On 5/20/2024 at 7:04 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Certifiably miscellaneous and a fine autobiographical example of a defense mechanism:  projection.

...negative number territory now...wonder if east harlem has an 800 number for unsolicited help hot line?....

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/20/2024 at 8:04 PM, zadok said:

...negative number territory now...wonder if east harlem has an 800 number for unsolicited help hot line?....

As long as I have you, I don't need anyone else.

[zadok]

On 5/20/2024 at 8:09 PM, Henri Charriere said:

As long as I have you, I don't need anyone else.

...wrong answer...long list n french petty thieves way at bottom of my list...

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  I hope the OP doesn't mind, but ----

Q.A.:  ----  I AM THE OP... speak up!

🐓:  I don't get why that was the "wrong answer." You yourself said without him watching from the wings, you're nothing. And French petit fours are pastries!  What's that got to do with anything?

Q.A.:. I have no idea.  Strut around and see what you can find out.  Right now I've got that greeting card on my mind. If it doesn't go thru, Uncle z's premonition comes true.  No more forum! No more chatboard! No more nothing!  It's back to a Hard-Knock Life!

🐓:  Your wish, sire, is my command.  (I hope he knows what he's doing...)

 

 

[ldhair]

 

Is Gold too High to Buy Now?

I won't be buying more gold or silver. For me it's too high but I'm sure it would turn out good, long term. My problem is my age. Anything long term is not very interesting to me. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/21/2024 at 12:17 AM, ldhair said:

I won't be buying more gold or silver. For me it's too high but I'm sure it would turn out good, long term. My problem is my age. Anything long term is not very interesting to me. 

It's HIGH compared to prices of recent months and the last few years....but compared to where it will be in 2030 ?  2035 ?

I think many of us will revisit these threads and say "why the hell didn't I load up at $2,700 gold ?" 

 

Edited May 21 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/21/2024 at 12:17 AM, ldhair said:

 

Is Gold too High to Buy Now?

I won't be buying more gold or silver. For me it's too high but I'm sure it would turn out good, long term. My problem is my age. Anything long term is not very interesting to me. 

Not at all surprising you would mention the one word the seasoned veterans have thus far assiduously avoided:  AGE. Perfectly understandable. They intend to live forever. And the mere possibility that their work ethic may fail to coincide with their progeny has never crossed their minds.  What happens to motivation when the vaunted goal has already been realized, many times over, and handed over on a silver platter to those who share your passion to the extent they represent $$$ signs, and little else? Examples abound in life.

I have my plans. You have yours.  And unlike many others, we will benefit each in our own way.  I plan to present my collection, unannounced, to my then rookie attorney who accepted my case gratis and was "persuaded" to acquiesce to higher-ups to accept a settlement in lieu of my desire to decimate my slumlord into bankruptcy for standing up for what JB quaintly referred to once as the "downtrodden," i.e., those who were unaware they had rights as set forth in leases owing to their unfamiliarity with the English language and inability to deal with a dozen city agencies, their inspectors and engineers. My collection did not cost me a dime; I hope you realize top dollar in selling yours and wish you all the best in your future endeavors. Congratulations on maintaining your thread whose chief value lay in introducing coins to those who otherwise never would have seen them.

[GoldFinger1969]

I think for most people, long-term is 10 or more years.  Intermediate term is 3-5 years out.  Short-term is 1 year or less.

 

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/21/2024 at 5:27 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think for most people, long-term is 10 or more years.  Intermediate term is 3-5 years out.  Short-term is 1 year or less.

 

I listen to you because you deal with this on a daily basis.  Even a "Rising Star" like me, here only 5 years (with jail time credit for that trip to Vladivostok, courtesy NGC)  🤣 understands mortality and borrowed time. My advice to those in my predicament (70 years, and older) is get down to brass tacks to avoid unanticipated developments which, fortunately for you, would be beyond your understanding.  I am not a doctor so I cannot help you, except give you advice: seek out a money manager -- and look both ways before you cross the street.

[zadok]

...gold is never too high nor too low to buy...its just how much u pay for it at the time of purchase....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/21/2024 at 8:37 PM, zadok said:

...gold is never too high nor too low to buy...its just how much u pay for it at the time of purchase....

Agreed, if you invest in coins you just grab them.

What I am wondering is this:  if gold and silver rocket to new highs...say double or triple....will regular non-PM U.S. coins move up ?  Dragged up or lag big time ? 

[VKurtB]

On 5/20/2024 at 5:00 PM, zadok said:

...but does it jingle when u walk?....

*I* jingle when I walk.

[zadok]

On 5/21/2024 at 8:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Agreed, if you invest in coins you just grab them.

What I am wondering is this:  if gold and silver rocket to new highs...say double or triple....will regular non-PM U.S. coins move up ?  Dragged up or lag big time ? 

...yes both will go up but not proportionally...the recent jump in silver drove up the price on common circ morgans  by 20-25% the jump in gold affected common circ gold by a lesser %....which would be expected

[VKurtB]

On 5/22/2024 at 10:46 AM, zadok said:

regular non-PM U.S. coins

Probably not, no.

[zadok]

On 5/22/2024 at 12:19 PM, VKurtB said:

Probably not, no.

...GF hypothesized double or triple jump...i think definitely cause common circ non-PM coins move on those numbers, morgans bumped up several dollars last week....

[VKurtB]

On 5/22/2024 at 11:39 AM, zadok said:

...GF hypothesized double or triple jump...i think definitely cause common circ non-PM coins move on those numbers, morgans bumped up several dollars last week....

But Morgans ARE PM, aren’t they? They may even be considered bullion-like, except for the gaudier grades. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Guys, Morgans would certainly jump on silver rising -- not sure about coins selling at HUGE premiums to the silver content, separate story IMO -- but what about all the non-PM coins or coins that are already at huge premiums to their unerlying low PM content:

• Liberty Walking and Seateds
• Lincoln and Wheat Pennies
• Franklin Halfs
• Jefferson Nickels

Obviously, any coin that trades close to or at a low multiple of the underlying PM will move up -- just a question of HOW MUCH.  For instance on gold coins, if gold moves up 50% from here.....mid-$3,000 range....MS-65 Saint commons will move up about 50% too I would guess....but what does that mean for an MCMVII HR in AU that is just over $10,000 (huge premium to underlying gold content) ?

I agree with Zad:  gets dragged up, but unless we attract lots of new Saint/MCMVII HR collectors, it lags bigtime.  Ditto trophy Saints or any trophy coins in any series which by definition trade at huge premiums to any underlying PM content.