Is Gold too High to Buy Now? 1 1

[VKurtB]

I don’t believe we need to guess about this. We have actual empirical data. Virtually EVERY time precious metals have gotten hot, non-PM coins tend to DECLINE in value. I have used every run-up in PM’s to land obscene values in early copper. I have been able to score large cents at well below HALF of book values then current. 
 

When “FOMO” takes over, collectors lose their freaking minds chasing PM’s. “Buy low, sell high” is a prescription everybody knows, but people’s brains won’t let them actually do it. 

Edited May 22 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/22/2024 at 1:21 PM, VKurtB said:

I don’t believe we need to guess about this. We have actual empirical data. Virtually EVERY time precious metals have gotten hot, non-PM coins tend to DECLINE in value. I have used every run-up in PM’s to land obscene values in early copper. I have been able to score large cents at well below HALF of book values then current. 

Can you give us some times when that happened ?  Clearly, you are saying that the low-value stuff is being used as a "source of funds" (to use a money management term  ). 

To be clear....you're saying they actually DECLINED in value, not rose at a lesser rate ?  Would like some times and more specifics if you have them off the top of your head.

I do know that when the SSCA 1857-S Liberty Head DEs hit the market....the LOW-END rose (where buyers wanted the story and the coin) but the HIGHER END fell and lagged.  Similar situation to what you are implying.

[VKurtB]

On 5/22/2024 at 12:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Can you give us some times when that happened ?  Clearly, you are saying that the low-value stuff is being used as a "source of funds" (to use a money management term  ). 

To be clear....you're saying they actually DECLINED in value, not rose at a lesser rate ?  Would like some times and more specifics if you have them off the top of your head.

I do know that when the SSCA 1857-S Liberty Head DEs hit the market....the LOW-END rose (where buyers wanted the story and the coin) but the HIGHER END fell and lagged.  Similar situation to what you are implying.

It’s an “every time gold and silver rise” phenomenon. Yes, at auction, there is a finite amount of buying power present. As collectors chase PM’s, copper and nickel coins essentially CRASH, virtually every time. In coins, there is no such thing as “a rising tide lifts all boats”. The copper and nickel boats SINK. Also, the premiums over melt on PM’s go down too.

Edited May 22 by VKurtB

[zadok]

On 5/22/2024 at 12:55 PM, VKurtB said:

But Morgans ARE PM, aren’t they? They may even be considered bullion-like, except for the gaudier grades. 

...i should have stated circulating PM coins n not non-PM coins...yes morgans in my book r legal tender coins u could spend them for face value still....

[Captain Murder]

Why buy Gold Now? SELL GOLD NOW!! It's up a lot... so sell till it drops, then Buy. I have some graded 70 Gold Coins for sale on eBay. Mostly Big Names... Gold Mercury Dollar PCGS 70... Gold American Eagle ANACS 70... Gold Panda NGC 70... Gold American Liberty ANACS 70... If your looking to Buy Gold Cause it's going up then check me out on eBay - Jaymurdem@ eBay - Plenty of Gold and more.

[Henri Charriere]

I see Jay Murder is still promoting his wares. Ah well, you live you learn.

***

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/27/2024 at 7:21 PM, Henri Charriere said:

I see Jay Murder is still promoting his wares. Ah well, you live you learn.  

If he incorporated his business, would it be called....Murder, Inc. ?  

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/22/2024 at 1:57 PM, zadok said:

...i should have stated circulating PM coins n not non-PM coins...yes morgans in my book r legal tender coins u could spend them for face value still....

🐓:  By PM, I am going to assume we aren't talking Private Messaging here.

Q.A.:  No, indeedy. Both members of good standing know very well every obsolete coin is fair game: mercs, perks and Turks. The whole kit 'n' kaboodle. That goes for the BIG bills, too.  Who's going to turn down a McKinley, Cleveland, Madison or Chase?  NOBODY. Even an ignoramus like me is going to say, "Just a moment, ma'am..." And excuse myself, rush out, and rustle up the change to give the little old lady, which invariably always turns out to be a happy, satisfied, repeat customer.

Now, on to the matter at hand, forget Morgans, that's novice nite. Every one of those bullion coins of which you speak has a DENOMINATION on it. Now whether it would be inadvisable to spend one at face value is an entirely different matter.  

(You both know I am am on Lifetime Probation here and serve at the pleasure and discretion of management. Cut me a little slack here.)

[Teddy R]

Yes

[World Colonial]

On 5/19/2024 at 5:56 PM, VKurtB said:

Where are gold’s earnings? Better still, where are gold’s dividends? Odder still, where is gold’s preferential capital gains treatment? It doesn’t exist. Normal income marginal rate. Gold is a VASTLY underperforming asset, almost by act of LAW. 

I don't disagree with anything you say.  I wasn't arguing against any of your points.

None of this makes either one an "investment".

[World Colonial]

On 5/18/2024 at 9:43 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

WC, I totally disagree.  And I think tens of millions of Americans who have diversified portfolios with stocks, bonds, and cash would disagree also.

This isn't investors being marketed to.  The small investor has lots of power and controls trillions.  Outfits like Vanguard practically work for free to serve them. 

Doesn't matter that you disagree.  It's not a matter of a popularity contest.  If every single person in the world believed that 1+1 = 3, they would still be wrong.  Either what I tell you is accurate, or it isn't.

The only reason this conventional belief is widely held is due to the following two reasons:

One: The financial services industry uses it to convince everyone to be fully "invested" at all times so that they can generate fees.  It's marketing and nothing else.

Two: It's a rationalization to convince yourself that any asset which is (absurdly) overpriced is "reasonably" valued.

I'm not arguing that anyone should not buy any asset they want to buy, if that's what they want to do, but this conventional reason you advocate is pure BS. 

Edited June 2 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 5/22/2024 at 12:55 PM, VKurtB said:

But Morgans ARE PM, aren’t they? They may even be considered bullion-like, except for the gaudier grades. 

I consider Morgan dollars bullion coins, except those with "substantive" or at least "noticeable" premiums prior to the 70's. 

The only reason such common coins sell for such inflated prices is due to financially motivated buying.  Without that, it would make a lot more sense for the most common dates to sell for modest premiums to silver spot, even in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66. (It's a label on a holder, nothing more.)

In the past, I've stated that I expect most post-1933 US coinage to ultimately sell for nominal premiums to the cost of grading or silver spot up to MS-66.  I'll add Morgan and Peace dollars to this prediction too, though it should still be higher than current prices given expected future currency debasement.

It's an inference, but I see no possibility that the most common dates have anywhere near enough actual collectors buying it as a collectible.  No, I don't understand why anyone would pay such inflated premiums to buy these coins as "investments", but that's what appears to occur.

Edited June 2 by World Colonial

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/2/2024 at 8:46 AM, World Colonial said:

One: The financial services industry uses it to convince everyone to be fully "invested" at all times so that they can generate fees.  It's marketing and nothing else.

That's the correct approach for 90% of the public that doesn't spend time day-to-day watching the markets.

On 6/2/2024 at 8:46 AM, World Colonial said:

Two: It's a rationalization to convince yourself that any asset which is (absurdly) overpriced is "reasonably" valued.

 

Nobody is saying that, but then again, look at the Mag 7 and even NVDA.  NVDA is certainly expensive on where it is today price-wise vs. 3 and 12 months ago....but yet....it is CHEAPER today than in the past based on forward fundamentals.

That's not my opinion, that is a FACT. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/2/2024 at 9:01 AM, World Colonial said:

I consider Morgan dollars bullion coins, except those with "substantive" or at least "noticeable" premiums prior to the 70's.  he only reason such common coins sell for such inflated prices is due to financially motivated buying.  Without that, it would make a lot more sense for the most common dates to sell for modest premiums to silver spot, even in grades up to MS-65 or MS-66. (It's a label on a holder, nothing more.) In the past, I've stated that I expect most post-1933 US coinage to ultimately sell for nominal premiums to the cost of grading or silver spot up to MS-66.  I'll add Morgan a nd Peace dollars to this prediction too, though it should still be higher than current prices given expected future currency debasement.  It's an inference, but I see no possibility that the most common dates have anywhere near enough actual collectors buying it as a collectible.  No, I don't understand why anyone would pay such inflated premiums to buy these coins as "investments", but that's what appears to occur.

If this was going to happen, it would have happened already.  In fact, if you read the Bubble Articles I have posted here, it more-or-less did with many common date Morgans in high-grade falling 75-85% in the early-1990's.

Unless you tell me we are going to have a demographic implosion on coin/Morgan collecting similar to what has happened with stamps I don't see a collapse across the board for MSDs.

[VKurtB]

On 6/2/2024 at 8:37 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

it more-or-less did with many common date Morgans in high-grade falling 75-85% in the early-1990's.

Yes, and that’s when the husband of my son’s after-school caregiver, and a wonderful customer at my family’s camera shop / photo lab, hanged himself over his over-leveraged losses on common date Morgans. He went from rolling in dough to bankrupting his family in what seemed like a weekend. I never participated in that mania, even a tiny bit. When prices go nuts, I don’t always actually sell (high), but I certainly stop buying. Is gold too high now? Of course it is. It was “too high” even BEFORE this latest spike. 

Edited June 2 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 6/2/2024 at 8:01 AM, World Colonial said:

The only reason such common coins sell for such inflated prices is due to financially motivated buying. 

You forgot the other reason: rampant stupidity. 

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  What about the Set Registry?

Q.A.:  Yeah!  What about that?  I'm 72.  You think I'm in this for my health?  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/2/2024 at 10:18 AM, VKurtB said:

Yes, and that’s when the husband of my son’s after-school caregiver, and a wonderful customer at my family’s camera shop / photo lab, hanged himself over his over-leveraged losses on common date Morgans. He went from rolling in dough to bankrupting his family in what seemed like a weekend. I never participated in that mania, even a tiny bit. 

Terrible tragedy.  It's why you NEVER use margin or borrowed funds, IMO.  Especially on illiquid assets.  Which themselves deserve only SPECULATIVE and not INVESTMENT capital.

On 6/2/2024 at 10:18 AM, VKurtB said:

Is gold too high now? Of course it is. It was “too high” even BEFORE this latest spike. 

Eh....is it REALLY a spike ?  A spike to me means a huge move in a short period of time. We're 25% above the levels of 12 years ago.  We're up 15% in 6 months.

Nice moves, and I'm not calling for a big rise in the short-term.  But I would be very surprised if we broke $2K even in a general downdraft in asset prices dragging gold down with it.

[VKurtB]

On 6/2/2024 at 10:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Terrible tragedy.  It's why you NEVER use margin or borrowed funds, IMO.  Especially on illiquid assets.  Which themselves deserve only SPECULATIVE and not INVESTMENT capital.

Eh....is it REALLY a spike ?  A spike to me means a huge move in a short period of time. We're 25% above the levels of 12 years ago.  We're up 15% in 6 months.

Nice moves, and I'm not calling for a big rise in the short-term.  But I would be very surprised if we broke $2K even in a general downdraft in asset prices dragging gold down with it.

I believe there is ZERO justification for gold to be above $500 to the Troy ounce.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/2/2024 at 11:40 AM, VKurtB said:

I believe there is ZERO justification for gold to be above $500 to the Troy ounce.

Sorry, but that's ridiculous.  Demand has increased and the metal has both commercial and investment appeal.  You do know the JWST has gold foils, right ?

It's one thing to say gold is overpriced in 1980 when it has gone up 20-fold in 10 years.  It's quite another when it's up 7-fold in 25 years from the low and only 25% from 12 years ago.

$3,000 by 2030 and maybe $5,000 by 2035. 

Edited June 2 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 6/2/2024 at 11:14 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You do know the JWST has gold foils, right ?

So did all the Apollo Lunar Modules. So your point is?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/2/2024 at 12:38 PM, VKurtB said:

So did all the Apollo Lunar Modules. So your point is?

My point is that demand is going up. 

Unless you think we're heading towards that "Twilight Zone" episode where gold is manufactured quite easily , you have lots of demand growth from central banks, retail, jewelry, etc.

You don't realize the growth in demand from 1 country -- India -- alone.  Add in China, SE Asia, some Central/South America, and in 10-15 years Africa.....unless you find a 50 billion ounce gold mine or CBs become net sellers....gold is going UP.

I'm no gold bug but I know when demand is going up from all sources and supply is stagnant, there's only one way price can go.  

Edited June 3 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 6/2/2024 at 3:56 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

My point is that demand is going up. 

Unless you think we're heading towards that "Twilight Zone" episode where gold is manufactured quite easily , you have lots of demand growth from central banks, retail, jewelry, etc.

You don't realize the growth in demand from 1 country -- India -- alone.  Add in China, SE Asia, some Central/South America, and in 10-15 years Afriday.....unless you find a 50 billion ounce gold mine or CBs become net sellers....gold is going UP.

I'm no gold bug but I know when demand is going up from all sources and supply is stagnant, there's only one way price can go.  

You’re right about one thing. I actively ignore Asia in all things. I don’t give a rat’s hiney about the entire continent. They’re pretty much people to conduct warfare against.

Edited June 2 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 6/2/2024 at 6:05 PM, VKurtB said:

You’re right about one thing. I actively ignore Asia in all things. I don’t give a rat’s hiney about the entire continent. They’re pretty much people to conduct warfare against.

What confuses you Henri? Asia has unique cultures, cultures with which I share virtually no morés. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/2/2024 at 7:13 PM, VKurtB said:

What confuses you Henri? Asia has unique cultures, cultures with which I share virtually no morés. 

What I wanted to weigh in on was the line, "pretty much people to conduct warfare against".  But it's off-topic. 

[RWB]

Too high to buy, and too low to sell.

[VKurtB]

On 6/2/2024 at 6:41 PM, RWB said:

Too high to buy, and too low to sell.

Just like usual.

[Henri Charriere]

Is Gold to High to Buy Now?

Apparently, for China; YES!

Their 18-month buying spree has come to a grinding halt.  Why?  Because it's gotten too high.   

Here's the blurb:

SPOT GOLD PRICE DROPS $50 PER OUNCE AS CHINA's CENTRAL BANK HALTS GOLD RESERVE BUYING.

So, Ladies and Gentlemen, there's your answer and don't forget, you heard it here first. (I got it second-hand from Ricky 🐓  but by all accounts he has no reason to lie.)

I believe we will see fluctuations, but no noticeable trends until the profit-taking is done. I also believe when gold stalls at a resistance level, the spot price will resume its rise in fits and starts -- and even surpass it's former highest level.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/7/2024 at 9:22 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Is Gold to High to Buy Now?  Apparently, for China; YES! Their 18-month buying spree has come to a grinding halt.  Why?  Because it's gotten too high.    Here's the blurb: SPOT GOLD PRICE DROPS $50 PER OUNCE AS CHINA's CENTRAL BANK HALTS GOLD RESERVE BUYING. So, Ladies and Gentlemen, there's your answer and don't forget, you heard it here first. (I got it second-hand from Ricky 🐓  but by all accounts he has no reason to lie.) I believe we will see fluctuations, but no noticeable trends until the profit-taking is done. I also believe when gold stalls at a resistance level, the spot price will resume its rise in fits and starts -- and even surpass it's former highest level.

Gold's strength will show in how long it takes to get back to $2,400....if it takes a few days or a week or so, China is just one of many demand sources....if it takes weeks or months or longer, then we have issues.

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/7/2024 at 9:31 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Gold's strength will show in how long it takes to get back to $2,400....if it takes a few days or a week or so, China is just one of many demand sources....if it takes weeks or months or longer, then we have issues.

Agreed, however they have been on an evidently large sustained buying binge and when they stopped gold was down $80. We'll have to wait see.