Do You Know Why You Collect What You Collect? 1 1

[zadok]

On 6/19/2023 at 11:15 PM, VKurtB said:

I have long believed that Registry Set collectors are a particularly unique “breed of cat” that is likely one of the eight psychological profiles to be covered in Mr. Swanger’s August talk in Pittsburgh. I recognize that Registry collectors are well represented on this website. Duh, right? But please believe me, here at the ANA Summer Seminar, so far I have not heard even a single person refer to a Registry or any competition based on graded coins, it simply never comes up in this segment of the hobby. I strongly suspect that it might come up in one class -  “Collecting and Investing in Morgan Dollars: A Comprehensive Approach”. One of the instructors, John Baumgart, sat next to me on the shuttle from COS airport. Our approach to this hobby could not be more diametrically opposite. He could not imaging buying ANY coin he would not resell. I can scarcely imagine buying any coin I WOULD plan on reselling. The same coin in three different hands can be 1) inventory, 2) a temporary investment, or 3) a valued quasi-family-member. I’m a big ol’ 3. 

...r not all collectors of anything crazy to start with?...my father said once..."how many damn candlesticks do u need? n u dont even have any candles..."... u correctly believe the registry sets serve a varied purpose to many...i personally participate on many diff levels for many diff reasons, both registry n non-registry....enjoy ur time in the springs... lived , worked, collected, cataloged, authenticated there, never tired of looking at the peak with snow on it....

p.s. im not sure "breeding cats" will pass muster on this forum....

[World Colonial]

On 6/19/2023 at 11:15 PM, VKurtB said:

I strongly suspect that it might come up in one class -  “Collecting and Investing in Morgan Dollars: A Comprehensive Approach”. 

That's because the majority of demand for the series probably comes from non-collectors.  Most of the coins are far too common where the actual collector base buying it as a collectible is large enough to support the price level.  The most common Morgan dollars are bullion coins and by common, I'm not referring to a specific date/grade combination since there is no practical difference.

On 6/19/2023 at 11:15 PM, VKurtB said:

One of the instructors, John Baumgart, sat next to me on the shuttle from COS airport. Our approach to this hobby could not be more diametrically opposite. He could not imaging buying ANY coin he would not resell. I can scarcely imagine buying any coin I WOULD plan on reselling. The same coin in three different hands can be 1) inventory, 2) a temporary investment, or 3) a valued quasi-family-member. I’m a big ol’ 3. 

This is the same reason I have stopped buying coins I used to buy and will unlikely ever expand my interests more than minimally.  I'm not interested in sinking unrecoverable funds into coins with limited or poor marketability when I don't even find it interesting, not when it requires a time trade-off.  It was one thing 20+ years ago when the coins were nominally priced and I could treat it as a moderate consumption expense but another thing entirely now.  An example is that Mexican crown I paid $45 for in 1998.  More recently, it's sold for $700 to $1000.  (No different for a larger number of currently much lower priced coins.)

That's insane.  The coin isn't remotely interesting enough and only financialization and marketing explain this price.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:13 PM, Henri Charriere said:

One legitimate concern every collector has entertained at one time or another, subconsciously or not is, Will the non-stop juggernaut in relentless certifications by TPGS [or discovery of hoards] devalue my collection(s)?

I think it's the risk we all take and for most of us it is very modest.  The problem appears to be when you chase a trophy coin for a registry or particular interest.  Pay up with a huge premium there...let a hoard find a few more examples where only 1 or 2 or 5 existed beforehand....let the overall market correct (i.e., 1995-W ASE).....and you can find yourself down 50-75% in a few years if not sooner.

The Balkanization of coins, holders, and labels we've talked about enough.

Lots of MCMVII High Reliefs dribbled over from Europe apparently in 2018-2021 (maybe still dribbling ?) and were a depressant on the price.  I guess dealers were sensitive to increased offerings or seeing the coins because there was no headline screaming "100 Mint-State MCMVII HRs to Hit Market In Coming Months" or something like that. 

As for non-stop certifications, not sure if you are referencing the labelization problem with all the descriptives or the totals graded.  Either way, I think we can handle it.

[GoldFinger1969]

I think the term "ungraded supply" is sometimes more appropriate.  I think this is a problem when you pay up for a MODERN coin but not as big a concern with CLASSIC coins.  Most classics have been submitted or quantified in the population census.  It's moderns which haven't been graded yet or broken out of sets or are in the pipeline and can still achieve a high-grade that reduces ultra-scarcity.

This was a big problem during the Covid supply disruptions for collectibles like NFTs, sports cards, etc.  Prices skyrocketed as folks chased super-rare cards....but once the TPGs were able to catch-up, prices have fallen bigtime.  I haven't seen ANY news articles in months on NFTs and I believe the sports card market, while it may have stabilized at lower levels, is still way below 2020-21 levels.  My cousin who collects baseball cards tells me that the TPGs who suspended grading submissions a few years ago have been open for business for some time.

[World Colonial]

On 6/20/2023 at 11:42 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Most classics have been submitted or quantified in the population census.  It's moderns which haven't been graded yet or broken out of sets or are in the pipeline and can still achieve a high-grade that reduces ultra-scarcity.

Not necessarily.

[zadok]

On 6/20/2023 at 11:42 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think the term "ungraded supply" is sometimes more appropriate.  I think this is a problem when you pay up for a MODERN coin but not as big a concern with CLASSIC coins.  Most classics have been submitted or quantified in the population census.  It's moderns which haven't been graded yet or broken out of sets or are in the pipeline and can still achieve a high-grade that reduces ultra-scarcity.

This was a big problem during the Covid supply disruptions for collectibles like NFTs, sports cards, etc.  Prices skyrocketed as folks chased super-rare cards....but once the TPGs were able to catch-up, prices have fallen bigtime.  I haven't seen ANY news articles in months on NFTs and I believe the sports card market, while it may have stabilized at lower levels, is still way below 2020-21 levels.  My cousin who collects baseball cards tells me that the TPGs who suspended grading submissions a few years ago have been open for business for some time.

...totally disagree that most "classics" have been submitted or quantified in population census...i seriously doubt its 25% if even that high...LSCC routinely conduct census surveys of the various denominations, its seldom more than 10% that r certified n even fewer that have been submitted for cac review...ur basing ur views on saints where if it hasnt been submitted its not worth owning n only the upper tier coins r saleable , even the disparity between saints n double eagles demonstrate the wide differences between the two as far as submissions....

[zadok]

On 6/20/2023 at 10:55 AM, World Colonial said:

That's because the majority of demand for the series probably comes from non-collectors.  Most of the coins are far too common where the actual collector base buying it as a collectible is large enough to support the price level.  The most common Morgan dollars are bullion coins and by common, I'm not referring to a specific date/grade combination since there is no practical difference.

This is the same reason I have stopped buying coins I used to buy and will unlikely ever expand my interests more than minimally.  I'm not interested in sinking unrecoverable funds into coins with limited or poor marketability when I don't even find it interesting, not when it requires a time trade-off.  It was one thing 20+ years ago when the coins were nominally priced and I could treat it as a moderate consumption expense but another thing entirely now.  An example is that Mexican crown I paid $45 for in 1998.  More recently, it's sold for $700 to $1000.  (No different for a larger number of currently much lower priced coins.)

That's insane.  The coin isn't remotely interesting enough and only financialization and marketing explain this price.

...there is more to the "collecting/investing" in morgans than just the collector versus the investor aspect...while i agree with ur opinion that the series as a whole is common n not rare in any respect n that its over marketized, there is that aspect very similar to an over priced stock market where everyone wants a prospective piece of the pie...n will continue to do so until it collapses, much like the crypto speculation....

...basically u n i collect in very similar approaches, except i never factor in future marketability in my purchase decisions....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:14 PM, World Colonial said:

Not necessarily.

I am referencing quantities that would COLLAPSE the price, not depress it or act like a headwind (i.e., the MCMVII's coming from Europe).

I agree -- and vets like Henri, Kurt, and Zadok among others -- have told about the sources of other mini-hoards or periodic releases of coins via SDBs, auctions, estate sales, etc.  I have stated I think that continues for another 10-20 years as the 1st Generation to hold those coins directly or the 2nd Generation to inherit them (now in their 60's or 70's but not likely to pass on for the most part until 2040) finally give them to people who want to sell them and/or certify them before selling.

I think the big problem is in well-collected coins like Lincolns or Franklins or other coins that still are with their original collectors/owners....the top of those coins had a BIG decline from 2012-2020....maybe that's all she wrote....we'll see who has interest in collecting them in the future but the socio-demographic tailwind from 1940-2000 has certainly ended.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/20/2023 at 1:37 PM, zadok said:

...totally disagree that most "classics" have been submitted or quantified in population census...i seriously doubt its 25% if even that high...

Saw an article by someone -- Doug Winter ? -- that said the estimate was about 70% of the ones worth grading for classic coins and/or Double Eagles and other gold coins.

[World Colonial]

On 6/20/2023 at 2:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I am referencing quantities that would COLLAPSE the price, not depress it or act like a headwind (i.e., the MCMVII's coming from Europe).

This is more about demand than supply.  Prices are set at the margin and only a very low proportion of the supply for most coins is available for sale at any time or in close proximity.

Due to this factor, it's going to take a much higher proportion liquidating their collections or dumping their "change jars" to cause a "collapse", though I do expect a longer-term relative decline/underperformance for most US coinage due to demographic (cultural) reasons.

Anyone who buys the most relatively overpriced for the supply coins while knowing anything about what they bought knows these coins aren't even close to scarce.

[World Colonial]

On 6/20/2023 at 2:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Saw an article by someone -- Doug Winter ? -- that said the estimate was about 70% of the ones worth grading for classic coins and/or Double Eagles and other gold coins.

Doug Winter deals in gold, not coins (even US coins) generally.  Jeff Garret has stated the same inference in a Coin Week Aritlcle.  I'll go with the late Harvey Stack who says the opposite.

Since there are far more financially motivated classic US gold buyers and the prices are (much) higher, the proportion in a TPG holder should be (much) higher too.

[World Colonial]

On 6/20/2023 at 1:46 PM, zadok said:

...there is more to the "collecting/investing" in morgans than just the collector versus the investor aspect...while i agree with ur opinion that the series as a whole is common n not rare in any respect n that its over marketized, there is that aspect very similar to an over priced stock market where everyone wants a prospective piece of the pie...n will continue to do so until it collapses, much like the crypto speculation....

Yes, collectors will "overpay" when they have the expectation of getting most of their money back.

On 6/20/2023 at 1:46 PM, zadok said:

...basically u n i collect in very similar approaches, except i never factor in future marketability in my purchase decisions....

I would possibly have a different view if I didn't have to work to generate my coin budget.

I recently bought two multi-coin Peru pillar lots.  Both are probably money losers, but I can live with that.  One has the 1766 1R with a mintage of 168200 but I only know of three or four, including mine.  Yonaka's plate coin (only one in his survey) and Sellschopp (holed) and/or Patterson had one.  Mine looks VG (probably details) but it's actually a decent coin (better than the others) considering the scarcity.  It's been cleaned but it isn't holed or otherwise damaged.  The other lot has a 1763 1/2R that I grade XF-AU but needs some clean up.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/20/2023 at 2:38 PM, World Colonial said:

Doug Winter deals in gold, not coins (even US coins) generally.  Jeff Garret has stated the same inference in a Coin Week Aritlcle.  I'll go with the late Harvey Stack who says the opposite.

He says 30% graded ?  When did he say it ?

[World Colonial]

On 6/20/2023 at 2:54 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

He says 30% graded ?  When did he say it ?

I didn't provide a %.  The article was written within the last five years (I think) but cannot remember exactly when.  Mr. Stack's comment was in a post in reply to Garret's Coin Week Article.  Neither of them provided an estimated percent. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:14 PM, World Colonial said:

Not necessarily.

I believe everything is in a perpetual state of flux until z decrees otherwise.  🤣

[VKurtB]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Saw an article by someone -- Doug Winter ? -- that said the estimate was about 70% of the ones worth grading for classic coins and/or Double Eagles and other gold coins.

I could not possibly disagree MORE with Mr. Winter’s view on this. I simply reject the idea that EVEN NOW the majority of slab-worthy coins are already in slabs. I see too much to make me believe that. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/20/2023 at 11:47 PM, VKurtB said:

I could not possibly disagree MORE with Mr. Winter’s view on this. I simply reject the idea that EVEN NOW the majority of slab-worthy coins are already in slabs. I see too much to make me believe that. 

I don't disagree that you and others here find some nice coins in obscure locations.  But relative to the existing total of ALL gold coins and/or Double Eagles....and certainly rare/scarce coins more so than commons.....I don't think we are seeing tons of new supply.  Additions, yes....but not tons of stuff.

If you go by the PCGS or NGC annual population totals...or study the trend over time (I'll try and get some numbers).....the denominator (the total number of coins for a particular type) is clearly larger so the resulting percentage has to drop over time even if the numerator is increasing over time.  But I am NOT sure that the numerator is increasing over time.  The RATE of increase and the absolute number of new coins graded (numerator) could have already peaked.

Checking the year-by-year totals for a particular coin series -- Saints, Franklins, Liberty's -- over the decades would be very interesting.  Maybe some of you have some general thoughts on any big trend -- feel free to share it.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/20/2023 at 11:47 PM, VKurtB said:

I could not possibly disagree MORE with Mr. Winter’s view on this. I simply reject the idea that EVEN NOW the majority of slab-worthy coins are already in slabs. I see too much to make me believe that. 

If you believe the majority of slab-worthy coins are NOT graded, then where are they ?  You have to believe there are large numbers and the amount of mini-hoards we find over time simply don't equate to millions of ungraded worthy coins as opposed to a circulated worn coin that is at best in the AU category unless it's a key/rare date.

[World Colonial]

On 6/21/2023 at 12:55 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If you believe the majority of slab-worthy coins are NOT graded, then where are they ?  You have to believe there are large numbers and the amount of mini-hoards we find over time simply don't equate to millions of ungraded worthy coins as opposed to a circulated worn coin that is at best in the AU category unless it's a key/rare date.

What's your definition of "slab worthy"?

Is it any coin where the incremental value in a holder exceeds the cost of grading it?  Coins above some minimum value?  Something else?

[World Colonial]

On 6/21/2023 at 12:53 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Checking the year-by-year totals for a particular coin series -- Saints, Franklins, Liberty's -- over the decades would be very interesting.  Maybe some of you have some general thoughts on any big trend -- feel free to share it.

Apples to oranges comparing DE to Franklin halves.  Franklin half is a "collector" coin overwhelmingly owned by moderate budget collectors and also available to some extent in (original) rolls even now.  I'd describe it mostly as a bullion coin even though it's not priced as one.  It's really common in all but the highest TPG eligible grades or with the FBL attribution.  There must be in the vicinity of 10,000 (at least) eligible for an MS-66 for every date.  Certainly 10,000s as "gem" or MS-65.  No key dates either.

No different for most other 1933-1964 US coins and some 1965-1998 too.

[zadok]

On 6/21/2023 at 12:55 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If you believe the majority of slab-worthy coins are NOT graded, then where are they ?  You have to believe there are large numbers and the amount of mini-hoards we find over time simply don't equate to millions of ungraded worthy coins as opposed to a circulated worn coin that is at best in the AU category unless it's a key/rare date.

...u seem to be fixated upon saints as if they r the only "classic" (ur word) coins under discussion...there r many many coins that have not been certified n never will that r high dollar coins n more "classic" than any of the saints...in many cases the finest known r only au coins or lower n they never show up in mini-hoards, only coins that didnt circulate often show up in hoards for that very reason, just look at the saints if they r not 67-69 coins they r not worth certifying in most cases...there r most likely more uncertified saints than certified ones?...look at the double eagles versus saints, many condition census rare dates certified in the lower circulated dates that were never from any hoards....over all it is safe to say that in US "classic" coins only a minority have been certified....

[zadok]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:49 AM, World Colonial said:

Apples to oranges comparing DE to Franklin halves.  Franklin half is a "collector" coin overwhelmingly owned by moderate budget collectors and also available to some extent in (original) rolls even now.  I'd describe it mostly as a bullion coin even though it's not priced as one.  It's really common in all but the highest TPG eligible grades or with the FBL attribution.  There must be in the vicinity of 10,000 (at least) eligible for an MS-66 for every date.  Certainly 10,000s as "gem" or MS-65.  No key dates either.

No different for most other 1933-1964 US coins and some 1965-1998 too.

...agree, only condition census rarities...when u think of it logically, going only for the highest possible grades defeats the real intent of the hobby...originally, i believe collectors were more content just to obtain nice collectable examples n not so intent on having the best etc, i know the old time large cent overton collectors viewed it that way, met several back in the late 50s n early 60s n they were happy just getting that elusive die pairing in any grade...they cherished their albums n watching the holes fill, stacking slabs in boxes would not be as satisfying to them....

[VKurtB]

On 6/21/2023 at 6:42 AM, World Colonial said:

What's your definition of "slab worthy"?

Is it any coin where the incremental value in a holder exceeds the cost of grading it?  Coins above some minimum value?  Something else?

Incremental value standard. I ask this question rhetorically. If all the good coins are already in plastic, why is NGC here at Summer Seminar desperately and unashamedly recruiting new graders for classic world coins in particular? They are AWASH in new submissions of older world coins that they can’t keep up with. Now is a lot of it fake? Yep, sure is. But it needs to be seen regardless, and it keeps coming in.

Edited June 21, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 6/21/2023 at 6:51 AM, zadok said:

...u seem to be fixated upon saints as if they r the only "classic" (ur word) coins under discussion...there r many many coins that have not been certified n never will that r high dollar coins n more "classic" than any of the saints...in many cases the finest known r only au coins or lower n they never show up in mini-hoards, only coins that didnt circulate often show up in hoards for that very reason, just look at the saints if they r not 67-69 coins they r not worth certifying in most cases...there r most likely more uncertified saints than certified ones?...look at the double eagles versus saints, many condition census rare dates certified in the lower circulated dates that were never from any hoards....over all it is safe to say that in US "classic" coins only a minority have been certified....

Saints are an itty bitty niche series, nothing more. It’s not mainstream at all. Oh, and Morgans are a cult. You want to know what’s mainstream? Put down the pop reports, turn off the screen, and go get in an airplane and look around. There are at least two students here at Summer Seminar who are permanently wheelchair bound. They made it worth their time and literal pain to be here to learn IN PERSON from the best people in these fields.

Edited June 21, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:51 AM, zadok said:

...u seem to be fixated upon saints as if they r the only "classic" (ur word) coins under discussion...

Not at all....but aside from my own knowledge on this type, it's a classic coin...bullion at times....and widely-collected by non-coin collectors.  That's why I included it.

On 6/21/2023 at 8:42 AM, World Colonial said:

What's your definition of "slab worthy"?

Is it any coin where the incremental value in a holder exceeds the cost of grading it?  Coins above some minimum value?  Something else?

If lots of coins (Saints or whatever) today are commons then depending on the FMV they are probably well-preserved and worth grading.  I'm not sure if AU common Saints are worth grading if they are suddenly found and available.  But I haven't seen any news articles -- and maybe talking to dealers would be a better indicator -- of increased bullion coins for DEs.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/21/2023 at 10:34 AM, VKurtB said:

Incremental value standard. I ask this question rhetorically. If all the good coins are already in plastic, why is NGC here at Summer Seminar desperately and unashamedly recruiting new graders for classic world coins in particular? They are AWASH in new submissions of older world coins that they can’t keep up with. Now is a lot of it fake? Yep, sure is. But it needs to be seen regardless, and it keeps coming in.

I don't think world coins had the submission surge that we saw in this country from about 1987-2007 for U.S. domestic coins.  

[VKurtB]

On 6/21/2023 at 11:00 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

widely-collected by non-coin collectors.

THERE it is! That explains it PERFECTLY!

[VKurtB]

On 6/21/2023 at 11:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't think world coins had the submission surge that we saw in this country from about 1987-2007 for U.S. domestic coins.  

They didn’t. Much of the world is just now TOLERATING slabbing, much less adopting it. China likes it. Britain is curious about it. Germanic countries still hate slabbing. That includes the Swiss.

Remember that in the beginning, slabbing was about commoditization. Europe ain’t buying that shtick. It’s about the art. 

Edited June 21, 2023 by VKurtB

[World Colonial]

On 6/21/2023 at 1:06 PM, VKurtB said:

They didn’t. Much of the world is just now TOLERATING slabbing, much less adopting it. China likes it. Britain is curious about it. Germanic countries still hate slabbing. That includes the Swiss.

Remember that in the beginning, slabbing was about commoditization. Europe ain’t buying that shtick. It’s about the art. 

My personal inference is that much of the apparent demand for slabbing of world coinage elsewhere is mostly actually from US collectors and where it isn't, driven by marketing to US based collectors. Yes, I know NGC and PCGS have submission centers outside the US.

Exceptions are China (probably due to the number of fakes) and South Africa (due to financially motivated buying).  I've seen more graded coins on Sixbid (but not that many proportionately) but don't know where the buyers are mostly located.

[Henri Charriere]

On 6/21/2023 at 1:06 PM, VKurtB said:

They didn’t. Much of the world is just now TOLERATING slabbing, much less adopting it. China likes it. Britain is curious about it. Germanic countries still hate slabbing. That includes the Swiss.

Remember that in the beginning, slabbing was about commoditization. Europe ain’t buying that shtick. It’s about the art. 

To the above, you could probably safely add France, and any other country that has adopted its own grading system.

As you are aware, the grade FDC covers the entire range of Mint State coins from 65-70.

I have come to accept @World Colonial's observation as true. Not.unlike a feature of premium customer service. And TPGS having already been established, the added incrematization is offered to meet the needs of fanatics like me.  🤣