How Long Did The "Surge" in Coin Submittances Last in 1986-87 ? 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/26/2022 at 4:22 PM, gmarguli said:

Albanese supposedly felt the modern market was crazy priced and the prices would eventually drop and people would get burned. Coins that were not rare were selling for a lot of money. There was only perceived rarity because so few had been submitted. So a 1964 Kennedy in PR66 should not be selling for $159 and a PR68 definitely should not be selling for $895, even if there were only 30 PR66 and 3 PR68 graded. So NGC stopped grading them. While possibly a magnanimous move by Albanese to kill the modern market, it was an incredibly stupid business decision as PCGS said screw that and continued to grade them. At this time it was still debatable as to which company would come out on top. PCGS clearly became the modern coin winner around this time. I don't recall when, but NGC realized their mistake and started to grade moderns but clearly way more liberally than PCGS.

Maybe NGC's "liberal" modern grading gave it the reputation for gradeflation in that area.

If Albanese knew more supply in "rare" moderns would be coming and thus dropping the price....it's not unlike what some expect with sportscards and memorabilia as more supply gets graded/certified.

On 8/26/2022 at 4:22 PM, gmarguli said:

Hall killed the modern market by getting rid of the PR70 grade. Whether his decision or not (he blamed Rick Montgomery who had left PCGS for NGC), he was the head of the company and he takes the blame. There was a time when PCGS PR70 coins actually sold for really good money. It was because PCGS was extremely tight on that grade, while NGC was much more loose. I recall selling PCGS PR70 state quarters for $150-$300. NGC PR70 would bring a small fraction of this. But everyone knew the deal.

Interesting.......

On 8/26/2022 at 4:22 PM, gmarguli said:

The market for modern proofs is pretty thin at the high price points. Only a few people will pay $300 for a PR70 when there are few of them graded, but you can make your money, and a lot of people will be happy with a PR69 for a fraction of the cost. However, when there are a ton of PR70s graded, most people will buy them at $25 instead of a PR69 since the cost isn't that much different. Since then, the 70 grade has only become more common and I believe this is only partially due to mint quality. Now a 70 brings little more than slabbing cost and a 69 may bring you $5. Even with the highly discounted bulk grading fees, there is no financial incentive to submit most moderns anymore. So when I say he killed the modern market, that's what I mean. There is no incentive for 99.9% of the people to submit moderns when you can buy a PR70 for less than you can make one yourself. Clearly the TPG still grade millions of NCLT, but I believe they do so with massive submissions from a few dealers at greatly reduced rates. Today, most slabbed and raw generally don't sell for much difference in the aftermarket. 

Agree with your excellent points.....I usually find myself bidding/buying on PR69's rather than paying another 50-200% for a 70.

Does your 70 vs. 69 analysis also apply to ASEs and Silver Commemoratives (i.e., National Park Saint-Gaudens stuff)....gold Eagles and Buffalos and other gold modern coins (including commemoratives) ?  Or are you mostly talking about Quarters and mass-collected stuff like that with much lower price points ?

Edited August 27, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

[Passing reference hereinabove was made to a flight of fancy, to-wit: a request made to a member to greet a passenger arriving at an undisclosed airport, coin in hand, for preliminary inspection, at which point a negative ruling was handed down, and said passenger departed on the next flight out.  Aside from the prohibitive time and expense, I say, Poppycock!  To echo the sentiment expressed by a friend of mine:  "I'm from the "show me" state, Missouri.  SHOW ME!" ]

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Addition of closing bracket.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/24/2022 at 9:25 AM, DWLange said:

Zadok is correct that one had to go through an authorized dealer. Direct submissions by collector members weren't possible until the mid-late 1990s.

Thinking about that....it could be difficult if you lived in a rural area or just didn't have a LCS that you knew and trusted.

Who would want to drive 1 hour or more away to submit coins through some dealer you never met before, right ?

[VKurtB]

On 10/28/2022 at 10:43 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Thinking about that....it could be difficult if you lived in a rural area or just didn't have a LCS that you knew and trusted.

Who would want to drive 1 hour or more away to submit coins through some dealer you never met before, right ?

Hmm. You’re asking the wrong question with me around. I routinely drive obscene distances for lots of things other people wouldn’t. Plus, LCS’s have never been scarce where I’ve lived. 

Edited October 28, 2022 by VKurtB

[Henri Charriere]

On 10/28/2022 at 1:37 PM, VKurtB said:

Hmm. You’re asking the wrong question with me around. I routinely drive obscene distances for lots of things other people wouldn’t. Plus, LCS’s have never been scarce where I’ve lived. 

 

On 10/28/2022 at 1:37 PM, VKurtB said:

Hmm. You’re asking the wrong question with me around. I routinely drive obscene distances for lots of things other people wouldn’t. Plus, LCS’s have never been scarce where I’ve lived. 

But they are now, roadside stands included, and that's why I believe you have the urge to wander, more so now than ever.    

[Henri Charriere]

On 10/28/2022 at 11:43 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Who would want to drive 1 hour or more away to submit coins through some dealer you never met before, right ?

I believe that may very well fit the bill of most collectors.  True, I assembled my primary obsession without having to drive at all (I let my fingers do the walking) but the nearest coin emporiums (Brigandi's, H.A., Stack's Bowers) are over 50 city blocks away, accessible by public transportation, within an hour [if the bus isn't hijacked or a straphanger isn't thrown to the subway tracks.]  I have no problem submitting coins through a dealer and, though Ricky [ 🐓 ] may not know it yet, divestment is inevitable.

Regarding your italicized question, I am a risk-taker. Always have been, always will be. [To paparaphrase Popeye's Olive Oyl, "Risk? That's me, all over!"] 

Edited October 28, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Routine die polishing.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/28/2022 at 3:18 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

but the nearest coin emporiums (Brigandi's, H.A., Stack's Bowers) are over 50 city blocks away, accessible by public transportation, within an hour [if the bus isn't hijacked or a straphanger isn't thrown to the subway tracks.

But HA and SB are pretty well-known, and a mid-Manhattan dealer with some longevity is unlikely to go out of business in a few weeks.,

But Joe's Coins 'N Things on Rural Rout 33 nearly 2 hours from a city of size ?  ZOINKS!!!, as Shaggy used to say !!