A review of the Heritage archives - ranking US coinage sales volume 0

[World Colonial]

The recent Jefferson nickel thread got me thinking about collector's aggregate relative preferences, again.  So, I finally decided to put a summary together which will be used as the basis of this thread, assuming an expression of interest.  I consider the results "directionally accurate" of relative preferences for US coinage, not definitive.  

One: Classified US coinage into 112 series.  "US" to include coins (not tokens or medals) in the Red Book which US collectors traditionally collect as US coinage, whether US Mint or not.

Two:  Stratified the data (by series) into six price ranges: $200-$500, $501-$2500, $2501-$10,000, $10,001-$50,000, $50001-$100,000, and $100,000+. (Yes, it's somewhat arbitrary.)

Next, here are some limitations of this analysis.  (I'm sure there are others.)

One: Where collectors spend their money isn't a definitive indication of collector preferences, but it's the best one I know.  It is heavily influenced by liquidity and (on occasion), collector knowledge or lack of it.  (The latter is more applicable to "esoteric" coinage.)

Two: Heritage consignments aren't necessarily always representative of the overall US coin market.

Three: I defined some series based upon my inference of how collectors usually collect it which may not be accurate.  

Four: Since this ranking is based upon number of sales, the series ranking often doesn't reflect the relative preference of individual coins within it.  

Five: Instances also exist where the ranking is lower than might be expected, but I infer it's mostly or entirely due to the scarcity, at high price points. (You can't buy what doesn't exist.)

Six: I don't see an option to filter results by auction date, only by looking at the itemized results.  Since this data goes back to the mid-90's, my rankings possibly do not reflect more recent experience accurately (to the extent relative prices changed noticeably).  Last five or ten years would probably be better but I wasn't about to do a count manually as it's too time consuming.

Below are some general observations:

One: This analysis isn't an "investment" tool to choose coins to buy for profit.

Two: This analysis says nothing about whether I do or don't like any series.  Its data driven subject to the limitations I included above.

Three: Changes in the ranking between price ranges clearly demonstrate US collector preference for quality, by TPG grade, and similar factors.  (We already knew that.)

Four: Many of the coin attributes I discussed in prior posts (here and elsewhere) are clearly evident in these rankings.  Buyers generically prefer gold over silver and base metals.  They also prefer big over small, especially of the same design.

Five:  Almost none of the most "popular" (as in widely collected) series are highly ranked, mostly or only at the lower price ranges.  I have stated this on numerous occasions.

[World Colonial]

Below are the top five (by sales volume) starting with $200-$500.

1.Morgan dollar

2. Classic commem-silver w/PR)

3. WLH

4. Lincoln Wheat Cent

5. Peace dollar (w/PR)

Below are the bottom five:

80.State Quarters

81.Ike dollar-PR

82.Washington Qtr (clad)

83.FDR dime (clad)

84.Early half dimes

[RonnieR131]

 I was surprised that early half dimes were dead last. I guess #4 and #5 with your general observations cover that. --- Thanks for the thread.

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2022 at 2:21 PM, ronnie stein said:

 I was surprised that early half dimes were dead last. I guess #4 and #5 with your general observations cover that. --- Thanks for the thread.

There are a few outliers like this that can usually be explained but I'll use early quarters instead since it's more obvious.  This series ranks #56 for this price range with 586 sales but the key is, you couldn't buy the 1796 or 1804 for $500 at any time during this period (1994 to now).  So, this leaves the 1805, 1806 and 1807 which means the individual dates still had much higher sales volume than most others.  But concurrently, someone could have paid more but chose to buy something else for the same price instead.

From $501-$2500, it has sales volume of 857 but this still only ranks #84 out of 99.  But you also couldn't buy the 1796 or 1804 for $2500.

The other reason is item #3 from my general observations.  Collectors usually don't like "dreck".  It's possible to buy an early half dime for $500 or less, but it's not one most will ever want.

[World Colonial]

Top five from $501-$2500:

1. Morgan dollar

2. Liberty DE

3. Classic commem (w/PR)

4. Saint Gaudens DE

5, Liberty Eagle

Below are the bottom five:

95. State Qtrs.

96. Washington Qtrs. (clad) PR

97. State Qtrs. PR

98. Ike dollar PR

99. FDR dime (clad)

[World Colonial]

Top 10 from $2501-$10K:

1. Morgan dollar

2. Liberty DE

3. Saint Gaudens DE

4. Liberty half eagle

5. Liberty eagle

6. Classic Commem-silver (same as above)

7. Early dollars

8. Patterns

9. Buffalo nickel (w/PR)

10. Liberty quarter eagle

I don't consider patterns to be a series as I'm not aware hardly anyone collects it this way, substantially due to the cost.  There is also a very wide variation between the preference for individual coins where some are high while others aren't and are only expensive due to the huge US collector base.  I see it similarly for classic commemoratives, except that the coins are cheap enough for a large collector base.  Both are an assortment of actually unrelated coins which US collecting arbitrarily defines as a "series".

For the Buffalo nickel, I assume most of the demand for proofs comes from type buyers but that bigger budget collectors of the series also regularly include it in their sets.  I don't see proof Buffalo nickels as a distinct series but that might be wrong.

Edited August 17, 2022 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

Top 10 from $10K to $50K:

1. Liberty DE

2. Morgan dollar

3. Saint Gaudens DE

4. Patterns

5. Early half eagles

6. Liberty half eagle

7. Liberty eagle

8. Territorial & fractional gold

9. Colonial

10. Early dollars

Similar comments on colonial coinage and Territorial gold as for patterns above.  Only a very low proportion of the collector base can afford territorial gold but I'm not aware its hardly ever bought generically.  When not bought as a type, colonial coinage seems to be segmented, examples being Massachusetts silver (especially Pine Tree shillings) and Fugio cents by die variety.

About one-third of Saint sales come from the 1907 High Relief.  By itself, it would rank #15, just ahead of the WLH with 1,006 sales.  It's easily the most highly preferred coin for its availability and price which is further confirmed by the UHR.

[RWB]

On 8/17/2022 at 2:21 PM, ronnie stein said:

 I was surprised that early half dimes were dead last. I guess #4 and #5 with your general observations cover that. --- Thanks for the thread.

You don't get a lot of "melt value" for your money with these....

[World Colonial]

Top 10 from $50K to $100K:

1. Saint Gaudens DE

2. Liberty DE

3. Early half eagles

4. Territorial and fractional gold

5. Colonial

6. Patterns

7. Early eagles

8. Morgan dollar

9. Classic Comm-gold

10. Early large cents

#9 is really the two Pan-Pac $50s.  For Morgan dollar, I separated proofs from business strikes (both here and previously) but if both are generally collected at more expensive prices (especially other than the 1895), it will rank higher.

Edited August 17, 2022 by World Colonial

[RWB]

Unexpectedly interesting information! Thanks.

[World Colonial]

Top 10 at $100K+:

1. Saint Gaudens DE

2, Patterns

3. Colonial

4. Liberty DE

5. Liberty DE-PR

6. Early half eagles

7. Territorial and fractional gold

8. Early large cents

9. Early dollars

10. Classic comm gold

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2022 at 5:00 PM, RWB said:

Unexpectedly interesting information! Thanks.

Out of curiosity, what do you see that is unexpected?

I ask as I agree, but it's more with series that I didn't include in these posts.  

Territorial and fractional gold ranks #17 below $500.  That's only fractional gold (of course) but it never would occur to me that this coinage would be bought over so many other better known series, such as proof IHC, seated quarters, and Washington quarter silver proofs.

[Zebo]

Very interesting. How about world coins now???  (Half serious). 
 

i didn’t expect classic comm - gold or silver to make either list.

[RWB]

On 8/17/2022 at 5:12 PM, World Colonial said:

Out of curiosity, what do you see that is unexpected?

The reinforcement of certain anecdotal trends, and the relative absence of really "big ticket" coins. Nice slice of reality.

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2022 at 9:12 PM, Zebo said:

Very interesting. How about world coins now???  (Half serious). 

Unfortunately, there isn't a central data source to analyze.  Heritage might be representative of US buyer preferences, but confident it isn't generally.

I'd rate the 1839 UK Una & the Lion as #1 in world coinage for its price range ($100K+).  A few other mostly British gold as runner ups.  In the $10k to $50K or 50K to $100K range, similar British gold plus Ancient Greek and Roman gold, presumably.  The First Jewish Revolt shekel is definitely high on the list up to $10K.

On 8/17/2022 at 9:12 PM, Zebo said:

i didn’t expect classic comm - gold or silver to make either list.

Neither are a real series by my standards, though US collecting arbitrarily defines it as one. 

US classic commemorative half dollars are mostly cheap enough where a large collector base can afford most and since many collectors define their collecting by the Red Book or registry sets, it's a "series" and the wide design variety gives it a high ranking.  It's a "numbers game" where a large number of coins in this artificial series adds up to create a high ranking, at lower to mid-range price points.

There is wide variation between many (maybe most) series in individual dates, but I'd guess (not having analyzed it), that the variation is much bigger here.  With many series, an outsized or above average proportion is accounted for by a few coins.  Here, we know the Hawaii, Pan Pac and a few others have a high preference where I can conclude in advance that these coins account for the ranking in the $2501-$10K price bracket.  Even in Jefferson nickel business strikes, the 1938, 1939, and a few war nickels account for a noticeable percent for this series above $300 (per a prior analsysis). 

With gold commemoratives, it's obvious the two Pan Pac $50s account for practically all of the sales above $50K.  Without both, the series rank would fall near the bottom.

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2022 at 9:12 PM, Zebo said:

i didn’t expect classic comm - gold or silver to make either list.

Here is the ranking for both, across all price ranges:

Silver commemoratives: 2, 3, 6, 29, 48, T-73 (only two sales above $100K)

Gold commemoratives: 40, 22, 22, 37, 9, 10

So, as you can see, the Pan Pacs explains the ranking for the top two price brackets.  Otherwise, it's ranking is noticeably higher than average, but a lot lower.  In the lowest price bracket, it's because many of the coins can't and couldn't be bought for less than $500.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

Very Interesting.  I am surprised Large Cents and Capped Bust Halves are not represented/more prevalent.  Both have tenacious collector base.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/17/2022 at 2:37 PM, World Colonial said:

Top five from $501-$2500: 1. Morgan dollar 2. Liberty DE 3. Classic commem (w/PR) 4. Saint Gaudens DE 5, Liberty Eagle Below are the bottom five:  95. State Qtrs.  96. Washington Qtrs. (clad) PR 97. State Qtrs. PR 98. Ike dollar PR 99. FDR dime (clad)

WC, what is this particular ranking -- or some of the others -- saying about the demographics and the $$$ behind those buyers ?

Can I assume that if someone is spending $501 - $2,500 on a coin that you have a classification that by itself will have Morgans and Saints at the top....because in the case of Saints, you simply CAN'T buy them for less than that price range (unless gold collapses) no matter if you are a Type Collector, a Registry Player, or a low-income or wealthy buyer .....whereas, only the SERIOUS collector is likely to buy Quarters or Ikes or FDR dimes for $501 - $2,500 even though many more people buy the LOWER priced coins for these series.

Do I have it right ?  Is that what the ranking or your posts are trying to say ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/17/2022 at 4:52 PM, World Colonial said:

About one-third of Saint sales come from the 1907 High Relief.  By itself, it would rank #15, just ahead of the WLH with 1,006 sales.  It's easily the most highly preferred coin for its availability and price which is further confirmed by the UHR.

That's what must lead to the continued posts or columns calling the MCMVII High Relief "the most overpriced coin type among U.S. coins" and the like. 

It's not that the coin should sell for less $$$....it's just that this coin has a unique set of underlying DEMAND which leads to the higher price.

Edited August 18, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/17/2022 at 4:56 PM, World Colonial said:

Top 10 from $50K to $100K: 1. Saint Gaudens DE 2. Liberty DE

Interesting that the Saint DE and the Liberty DE keep flipping back-and-forth in the rankings as you increase the price range.

There's MORE coins and higher POPULATIONS for those years and/or mintmarks in the Saint series when you move into this price range.  There must be fewer Registry players among the Liberty DE series than with the Saint series because so many of the Liberty DEs are super-expensive, especially in Mint State. 

Also, it's 57 years of coins for the Liberty DEs vs. 25/26 (1933) years for the Saint series, excluding mintmarks.

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2022 at 11:01 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Very Interesting.  I am surprised Large Cents and Capped Bust Halves are not represented/more prevalent.  Both have tenacious collector base.

I'll respond for large cents first and then in another post for Capped Bust halves.

First, I divided it into early large cents (1793-1814) due to the influence of EAC, Matron Head, and Braided Hair.  Of these three, only early large cents have a high preference.  The other two are around average to below average, depending upon the price.  This is evident from the prices for most of the individual coins even without this data.

Second, below are the rankings for each of the three:

Early large cents: 22/84, 29/99, 20/108, 11/108, 10/86, 8/76

Matron Head: 38/84, 47/99, 71/108, 73/108, 73/86, N/A

Braided Hair: 34/84, 49/99, 60/108, 66/108, 71/86, N/A

For early large cents, it's only possible to buy low or very low quality for the first two price ranges, Preference for Chain cents and other higher preferred (such as the 1799 and 1804) aren't reflected.   If the "series" which aren't hardly collected as a series (patterns, territorial gold, colonials) are excluded, the preference would more closely align your comments at higher prices.

For the Matron and Braided Hair, the ranking for the higher price ranges would be lower except that the least preferred series aren't included due to zero transactions.  This applies for both at $100K+.

Edited August 18, 2022 by World Colonial

[World Colonial]

On 8/17/2022 at 11:01 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Very Interesting.  I am surprised Large Cents and Capped Bust Halves are not represented/more prevalent.  Both have tenacious collector base.

I divided Bust halves into Lettered Edge and Reeded Edge, as it's my understanding that die variety collecting (which accounts for much of the demand) isn't that common with the latter.  I included proofs in both, which makes a difference at higher prices.

Capped Bust LE: 7/84, 14/99, 15/108, 24/108, 33/86, 37/76

Capped Bust RE: 57/84, 78/99, 74/108, 72/108, 58/86, 40/76

Above rankings almost totally the result of number of dates in the series, 29 versus five.  Even with far more die variety collecting for LE, number of sales for each date isn't noticeably different.  Probably offset by equal buying for type sets.

If these ranking still seems low, think of it this way.  Aside from Bust H10C and small size Bust 10C, it's the only affordable silver type coin or series from this period for a large collector base.  By comparison, for $200-$500, early halves rank #50 but for less than $500, you can only buy a (very) low quality example or for some dates not at all versus an AU

If both are added together, it's still ranked lower than WLH except above $50K but this is still only due to the proofs.  This was my opinion prior to completing this exercise and the Heritage data supports it.

[World Colonial]

On 8/18/2022 at 1:18 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

WC, what is this particular ranking -- or some of the others -- saying about the demographics and the $$$ behind those buyers ?

Can you elaborate?

There is no demonstrated correlation between age and collector preferences.  If there is one, I have never seen it demonstrated anywhere, ever.  I don't believe it's relevant culturally either, as US based collectors who aren't inclined to collect US coinage shouldn't be reflected in the data at all.  They are buying world coinage or ancients.  If there is another cultural effect, it's either not evident or very limited.

If you are referring to relative affluence between generations, those less affluent who are usually younger may buy the lower/least preferred series if they like it, but not being able to afford the more preferred series doesn't make them like what they can afford more.  It's a financial limitation, not an actual preference.  This is evident in that it is obvious collectors in the aggregate view the more/most preferred series (whether conforming exactly to my data or not) as collecting "upward" and the lower/least preferred series as collecting "downward".  The movement between series is highly correlated "upward" as budgets increase.  Price history demonstrates it, in the aggregate.

On 8/18/2022 at 1:18 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Can I assume that if someone is spending $501 - $2,500 on a coin that you have a classification that by itself will have Morgans and Saints at the top....because in the case of Saints, you simply CAN'T buy them for less than that price range (unless gold collapses) no matter if you are a Type Collector, a Registry Player, or a low-income or wealthy buyer .....whereas, only the SERIOUS collector is likely to buy Quarters or Ikes or FDR dimes for $501 - $2,500 even though many more people buy the LOWER priced coins for these series.

Do I have it right ?  Is that what the ranking or your posts are trying to say ?

Yes, but let me add a few comments.

Preference for Saints and Morgans is substantially driven by financially motivated buying, especially at lower price points.  Below $2500, anyone buying a Saint or Liberty DE is buying a widget, a bullion substitute.

The other factor is the generic quality preference in US collecting which covers the entire Heritage archive history.  For some coins in these price brackets, you can't buy it at all as you stated.  But for many more, it's lower quality or "dreck".  Some lower quality coins are still relatively liquid but more often are less liquid than top registry coins from the US modern series you listed.

So, considering this combination, it's not surprising that collectors generically prefer higher quality examples in "popular" but less preferred series over actually more generically preferred series in lower quality.

[World Colonial]

On 8/18/2022 at 1:22 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That's what must lead to the continued posts or columns calling the MCMVII High Relief "the most overpriced coin type among U.S. coins" and the like. 

It's not that the coin should sell for less $$$....it's just that this coin has a unique set of underlying DEMAND which leads to the higher price.

I personally don't consider the HR another coin type.  But to the extent the coin's apparent preference is driven by type buying, it's my inference that it doesn't change how collectors perceive it.

Collectors and those who buy it for financial reasons like it and that's all that matters.

I too think it's overpriced for its actual numismatic merits, but that's irrelevant to this discussion.

[World Colonial]

On 8/18/2022 at 1:28 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Interesting that the Saint DE and the Liberty DE keep flipping back-and-forth in the rankings as you increase the price range.

There's MORE coins and higher POPULATIONS for those years and/or mintmarks in the Saint series when you move into this price range.  There must be fewer Registry players among the Liberty DE series than with the Saint series because so many of the Liberty DEs are super-expensive, especially in Mint State. 

Also, it's 57 years of coins for the Liberty DEs vs. 25/26 (1933) years for the Saint series, excluding mintmarks.

A few points here:

One:  The Saint is the clearly preferred design.  There isn't any doubt about that.  The higher average sales per date you noted makes this evident.

Two: I didn't split the Liberty DE by sub-type.  I didn't do it for every other series either where it could apply (like Liberty Seated) because I don't think it changes the outcome meaningfully.  The exception is the gold dollar where I defined the entire denomination as one series, as I don't know how it is usually collected.  In this instance, I believe my ranking is not necessarily reflective of its relative preference.

Three. Both series have scarce or rare dates which drive the rankings at higher prices.  The scarcer Saints dates are also almost always in higher grades/quality versus the roughly equivalently scarce Liberty DE.

Edited August 18, 2022 by World Colonial

[GoldFinger1969]

Very useful thread and info, WC, thanks for elaborating and providing more details. 

[World Colonial]

Here is a summary of the most widely collected 20th century series, at $200-$500 and $501-$2500.  It's another slice of the data to show that "popular" doesn't equal preferred.  If I had access representative data below $200 (which the Heritage archives does not provide), multiple segmenting below this price point would demonstrate commonly held perception.  One example is Lincoln Wheat cents are presumably actually first below $50.

Lincoln Wheat cents 4/84, 7/99

Lincoln Memorial cent 43/84, 76/99

Jefferson Nickel 37/84, 58/99

Buffalo nickel (w/PR) 8/84, 9/99 (10th without proofs)

Mercury dime 9/84, 16/99

FDR dime (silver) 83/84, 88/99

Standing Liberty Qtr. 10/84, 18/99

Washington Qtr. (silver) 12/84, 23/99

WLH 3/84, 8/99

Franklin half 23/84, 50/99

Morgan dollar 1/84, 1/99

Peace dollar 5/84, 13/99

Classic commemoratives (silver) 2/84, 3/99

Modern commemoratives (w/PR) 13/84, 43/99

Heritage doesn't segment gold from silver/base metal modern commemoratives.  At these price points, I consider it another artificial series, as I don't believe many buyers are spending $10K's in it.  

As stated previously, I didn't combine circulation strikes and proofs with the other series, except Buffalo nickels.  Where I didn't include it, I infer it's most likely with Mercury dimes, WLH and somewhat with the Lincoln wheat cent.  Low(er) number of coins and a much higher preference.

[World Colonial]

Here is another view of the data.  The prior one I believe reflects relative preference by series.  This one by type which is probably more consistent with how many collectors view this concept.  Below, I've included the ranking for $100K+ (under both methods) with additional commentary.  The rankings are computed by the number of sales divided by number of coins in the series to compute average sales for each.

Early dollars 9, 1

Early eagles 12, 2

Early quarters 24, 3 (Mostly the 1796)

Early half dollars 15, 4 (Mostly the 1796, 1797)

Saints-PR 20, 5

Early large cents 8, 6

Early half dimes 18, 7 (Mostly the 1792)

Saints 1, 8

Early quarter eagles 13, 9

Bust half RE 40, 10 (Mostly the proofs)

The biggest limitation of this view is how I defined a series which wasn't by each design.  (112 series was enough.)  As an example, early half eagles rank #11 but if I had split out the Capped Head (1813-1834), this one would be third or fourth.