Long Beach conclusions: Market is very active but........

[truthteller]

some things to consider.

 

1) Wednesday and Thursday were very active, lots of trading.

2) Really nice color coins never make it onto the bourse

3) The pre Long Beach auctions were fairly strong.

4) PCGS grading has become tighter over the last few weeks

5) Several dealers I talked to bought heavily at FUN and did not have an interest in nice coins, but only REALLY NICE coins.

6) Several dealers I offered coins to did not even ask for quotes, many said their inventory was too large.

7) A couple of larger mid level dealers were AGGRESSIVELY selling coins and discounting.

8) The PCGS and NGC booths were somewhat active Thursday

9) There were many, many coins being offered. Actually, this one was a better Long Beach shows to find the coin you wanted.

 

 

Summation: The overall market appears good. Some call it great, but I don't quite agree. It was very, very active. A good buzz in the air on Wednesday and Thursday. However, many, many dealers were pushing material due to FUN purchases from auctions as well as on the bourse. In past Long Beach shows, many dealers would quote a price and that was it. Now the same dealers are willing to discount. If you had a wad of cash with you, then I feel you could buy well in most areas of the market. If you have a ton of inventory, and were willing to discount, then you did well. If you have a ton of inventory, and stuck to your prices, then you did not sell well. Several smart dealers I talked to were not replenishing their inventory, but keeping cash available. Mark Feld posted a thread about the market being "two tiered" and I would agree. Very, very select and expensive coins find homes. But I find the $10K-$25K coins to be sagging. Again, if the coins are PQ or rare, no trouble finding a home. The $500-$5000 range is very, very active for rare dates and premiums are still high. Howvever, type coins were somewhat sluggish. I also notices many dealers who had ":tired" inventory, where they paid too much at auction and were "stuck" with coin.

 

These conclusions are based on walking the floor and talking to approximately 20 dealers.

 

 

TRUTH

[golfnut99-migration]

Excellent report.

Thank you!

[Hoot]

Nice report - thank you!

 

PCGS grading has become tighter over the last few weeks

 

Does this mean that you think they are giving out lesser grades, or they are grading more consistently? If the former, it means they are grading less consistently in the overall picture.

 

I have spoken with severl collectors who feel that PCGS has reduced grades being bestowed in several (if not all) series in an effort to demonstate their so-called tougher grading standards. This has caused a number of collectors to leave their service becuase it shows widely varying inconsistency, especially over the past three or four years.

 

Hoot

[michael]

as usual excellent thread truth you sum things up really well

 

as usual great special coins with extraordinary eye appeal and extraspecial qualities are always in demand

[truthteller]

"PCGS grading has become tighter over the last few weeks"

 

 

There have been some grader personnell changes in the past several weeks. Most notibly is MIke Farone. Mike is a conservative "old school" grader and is very. very consistent. It takes several weeks, if not months, for the graders to "click" as a team once there is a change.

 

 

TRUTH-

[goose3]

were KEY date coins in abundance?? and priced HIGH?

 

they sure seemed to be at the last Baltimore show.

[truthteller]

Key dates were not in abundance, but were available. If you didn't buy them early Wednesday, they were gone by late that day One dealer just purchased a gold deal of better circ Charlotte gold on Sunday, all gone by late Wednesday.

 

 

 

TRUTH

[chinook]

My observations from your post.

 

1. PCGS grading tighter

2. Inventories too large

3. Dealers discounting

 

Perhaps a sign things are actually slowing?

 

The rising tide may have lifted all boats. I think if I had a lot of average coins I would be a seller in this market.

 

 

Thanks for the report

[EZ_E]

Truth,

 

Could you please elaborate more on the following statement: "Howvever, type coins were somewhat sluggish."

 

Thanks.

[Elcontador]

From my perspective, type was not moving because buyers like me were reluctant to buy middle of the grade coins for premium $ and the dealers were not willing to discount them.

 

On some type, like Capped Bust Halves, the spread between grey & blue sheets is huge, and that also kept me from buying what I thought was a really nice one in an NGC 5 holder.

[EZ_E]

From my perspective, type was not moving because buyers like me were reluctant to buy middle of the grade coins for premium $ and the dealers were not willing to discount them.

 

On some type, like Capped Bust Halves, the spread between grey & blue sheets is huge, and that also kept me from buying what I thought was a really nice one in an NGC 5 holder.

 

Now, that makes sense. Thanks for the reply, Elcontador!

 

p.s. Is you moniker's name Portugese for "the singer".

[truthteller]

"Howvever, type coins were somewhat sluggish."

 

 

Prices are not being supported well at this time. There is a huge price discrepancy from the dealer "ask" to the actual selling price. I believe that dealers think their type coins are worth more than the actual market, thus, slow sales. In addition, many dealers feel this area of the market is undervalued(which is true), but reality has not caught up with expectations. PQ coins and early type is another story.

 

 

TRUTH