Here's another sign of the bull market

[DaveG]

In today's Wall Street Journal, on page C5:

 

"It's good this stuff is collectible, because it sure would be difficult to spend. The Dallas auction house Heritage Galleries today will begin auctioning off rare US currency, including misprinted bills struck with one denomination on the front and another on the back. Heritage expects to reap $8 million to $11 million, besting the house's previous record $6.7 million auction of rare currency. This week's sale also includes items thet were correctly issued, but are difficult to get, like a $20 bill from 1905 with the serial number 1. Heritage is handling the auction on behalf of a group known as "the Taylor family," which is staying anonymous otherwise."

 

 

I'm used to the Journal covering auctions at Sotheby's and Cristie's, but if we're not careful, collecting coins and currency will become mainstream. . . and I'll never be able to afford anything I like!

[truthteller]

From past experience, once mainstream America takes notice of coin collecting, it's time to sell bigtime, since the crash will be coming soon.

 

 

TRUTH

[Beijim]

From past experience, once mainstream America takes notice of coin collecting, it's time to sell bigtime, since the crash will be coming soon.

 

 

TRUTH

 

These may prove to be among the wisest words ever written. It's my suspicion that this general principle applies to almost everything worthwhile.

 

Beijim

[EZ_E]

From past experience, once mainstream America takes notice of coin collecting, it's time to sell bigtime, since the crash will be coming soon.

 

 

TRUTH

 

These may prove to be among the wisest words ever written. It's my suspicion that this general principle applies to almost everything worthwhile.

 

Beijim

 

IMHO, with the advent and use of the internet, the numismatic field will remain strong for a long time to come. I feel that the only thing that will disrupt the current bull market would be a huge economic down turn in the United States.

[Count_Erfit]

There has been some big money coming into coins past year or so. Problem with big money is it is usually FAST money.

I do not ...believe..... that loads of folks are champing at the bit to get out this weekend to pick up big dollar coins.

Coins are a THIN market at best. Fun.....but.....thin.

 

Looked at ebay yesterday and there's like 8 PAGES of seated dollars.

 

and about 25 or more early Heraldic Eagle ten golds. Whereas usually there are 1-3....if any.

 

[TomB]

I believe that much of this money that has found its way into our hobby/industry does not share a common circle of coins with hardcore collectors and dealers. In my opinion, I do not care if $50,000 Seated dollars become $75,000 Seated dollars as those who will be chasing such coins will not be chasing the coins that I am interested in.

[DaveG]

My concern is the "trickle-down" effect: that as the big-money coins change hands, the sellers will have more money to buy coins with, and the folks who sell coins to them will have more money, etc. etc. For example, I'm sure that every time Legend sells a $50K coin, they take the proceeds and buy more coins.

 

Another good example is the inventories of the dealers who go to Parsippany: almost all of them have a larger inventory (with higher priced coins in it) than they did four or five years ago. Just keeping those inventories fully stocked puts a lot of pressure on the coin market.

 

While I think it's wonderful that there are now three or four dealers there offering coins I'm interested in (compared to one four years ago), that means there are now four people chasing a coin that one person was chasing back then - a sure formula for price increases!

[Techno_mike-migration]

IMHO, with the advent and use of the internet, the numismatic field will remain strong for a long time to come. I feel that the only thing that will disrupt the current bull market would be a huge economic down turn in the United States.

- EZ_E

 

I believe that much of this money that has found its way into our hobby/industry does not share a common circle of coins with hardcore collectors and dealers. In my opinion, I do not care if $50,000 Seated dollars become $75,000 Seated dollars as those who will be chasing such coins will not be chasing the coins that I am interested in.

- TomB

 

EZ_E and TomB are right! The internet will continue to expand the base and the extreme money, driven by the competition of the Registry, will continue to move prices at the top. There have been some increased levels of material (specifically in the area of the Franklin series - my interest) at auction lately, but I think this is a positive...spreads high quality material to more collectors increasing participation numbers...more people are adding sets to the Registries.

 

DaveG even makes the point, which I think is a positive, that more dealers are carrying better levels of inventory. I think their commitment to the industry is a positive indicator to the health of the field...when they stop carrying this inventory you can begin to "read tea leaves" and question the market's direction.

[RGT]

Looked at ebay yesterday and there's like 8 PAGES of seated dollars.

 

But only four of those coins are real. The others are Count_Erfit, from China.

[DaveG]

Techno_mike,

 

Actually, I would say that the danger sign is when dealers are no longer interested in buying coins to refill their inventory; i.e., they want to reduce their inventory because they're having trouble selling their existing coins.

[Techno_mike-migration]

DaveG,

 

You are absolutely right! I completely agree with your current observation. Hard to read for the average collector who does not sell much material.

 

Mike

[DaveG]

Mike,

 

Even if you don't sell much, just look for when dealers' inventories seem to be getting a bit smaller.

 

(or, when you go to a coin show and ask dealers for their new purchases - and they don't have anything to show you.)

[Count_Erfit]

Mike,

 

Even if you don't sell much, just look for when dealers' inventories seem to be getting a bit smaller.

 

Happening now. Take a look at some of the "2nd tier" dealer websites and note the "SOLD" coins still imaged. Those would be replaced by new if they thought they could continue selling. There is NEVER a shortage of material in ANY grade. The right price will pry it loose.

 

The coin market is controlled by a few dealers with mega inventories. They may not be the dealers with a huge "public" presence, but they can and do "run" series on regular cycles.

 

Dealers in ultra hi grade material work in a different circle. Some have the same clients spending large amounts amongst them. There are other "procuring" dealers who stay "on the road and show circuit" whom they use regularly to either acquire or dispose of inventory as the market dictates.

 

It is no tough job for the major dealers to KNOW when inventory needs pumping or dumping. And it is very easily done quickly. The inventory is not that extensive that it can't be disposed of quickly. Small losses are taken all the time in coins. Just have to watch the cash flow and stay WITH it.

 

The more strident the call of "hot" market, the easier it is to move the inventory. Either to large investors or other dealers in the same circles. "Ending" markets find buyers EVERYWHERE. In ALL investments.

 

No one knows when markets are turning. We know when they HAVE turned.

 

The higher the prices, the lesser is the chance of a market being "collector" driven.

 

I can't claim to know if the market is slowing or if it's just a perception or "hunch" on my part.

 

I only say that caution should always stay in the picture.....UNLESS.....you are the one who intimately knows the cash flow picture.

 

???????/

 

[truthteller]

Frankly, my perspective is different. Not so much as to inventories lessening at any given point, which is one barometer, but how many coins are jumping from one dealer to another without finding a home. When fresh coins are sold, the market should indicate that the coins find a home. I find this not to be the case any longer. Many, many coins are circulating from one dealer to another, or one auction to another. Example. Many JFS coins have remained unsold or are reentering the marketplace, after the auction in August of 2004. These are registry quality coins that should be off the market for many years. That is not the case. I tend to specialize in one segment of the marketplace. However, I have talked to several dealers, and their conclusions are similar. Coins that should have a home are offered again and again. Often, coins that are resubmitted for a higher grade do not sell. Once the higher grade is achieved, the asking price is too much, so the coin sits. When a coin gets "old", the freshness is gone, so the price must be reduced, deflating the marketvalue of similar coins at the same grade. Example, MS68 Stone Mountain with a pop of less than 10. Not less than 4 of these coins have been on the market in the past 2 years, one being reoffered in the last year. Is this coin worth $20K? When the owner cannot sell for a profit, the asking price is lowered until a sale transpires. What if the coin cannot sell at a profit? The coin then sits in inventory, although that inventory is pulled from the market for several months. The owner then offers the coin again as fresh. However, for a sale to transpire, there has to be a new buyer. No new buyer, means no sale. Now with the coins reoffered, the coin is worth far less. Will the owner sell for a loss? Maybe, but this sets a precedent. A sale of low pop coin at a loss means that the market was overpriced, allowing for readjustment of prices downward, which does not appear beneficial for the market of this coin, or high grade, low pop coins of any certain series.

 

At this point, the dealers still have good cash flow, but many are hesitant for outlaying cash and are using auction terms to help them along. The first cash crunch will be when auction invoices are due and cannot be paid. With the auction houses now reliant on constant turnover of coins much moreso than two years ago, I feel there will be a "pinch" at some point where the coins sold no longer have homes and must rely on recycling from one dealer to another. This will be a major sign that the market is correcting. At first, nice coins will be offered for less money, so initially, buyers on the sidelines will jump in tentatively. But, once the new buyers are satisfied, there must be a continual new supply or new buyers. This remains unlikely at this point, since the market will still be overvalued. A new buyer will continue to buy when he/she feels that the market is fairly priced. When will this happen?

 

 

Things to watch out for:

 

1) auction coins reappearing from one auctionhouse to another

2) coins reappearing in dealer inventory when supposedly they were sold

3) coins appearing in another dealers inventory when the coin should have found a home

4) coins being upgraded and then remaining unsold

5) coins being offered for sale more cheaply, when the same coins recently sold for more.

 

Of course, every series is different, and every each segment of the market cools and heats at different rates. Yet, it doesn't take much money in or out to inflate or deflate a segment of the marketplace.

 

 

 

TRUTH

[Count_Erfit]

That is also very true. I rely mostly on the "procuring" dealers that I know and their assessment of market. When they pester me for stuff, I know the market is real. When they have "offerings" I begin to sense a change. Also their eagerness, interest, or lack of if I get something new. Also the "level" relative to sheets and whether they are telling me "Man, I got 7 of those NOW."

 

It's really hard to tell from "watching" so much as "listening." Watching is good at shows.

 

And what you say about auction "due" bills is very true and I have read one dealer who is salivating over Long Beach thinking that a lot of stuff is going to HAVE to be sold there for their FUN purchases.

 

Who the heck KNOWS?

 

(another from here)

 

Edited to add what I just thought of. The change is from "Whaddya got for me?" to "Know anyone looking for this?"

 

[chinook]

A great stock market trader once told me "never underestimate the power of a mania.' Prices have a tendency to go much higher for a longer time than anyone anticipates.

 

I would like to offer a different perspective of dealer inventories. I would say when inventories are high then we are at a market top rather than when they are low. Your postulation assumes that dealers know when the top is reached and slim back their inventory. I dont buy that as no one knows the top.

 

Look back at the stock market bubble. Prices were high then went 10x higher. More IPO's came to market -this is likened to dealer inventory- then the crash came. Think about...if dealers own all the coins then that means customer demand is waning.

 

Are we at a top? I have no idea.....All I know is coin collecting has been happening for 1000's of years and the population continues to grow. There are only so many coins to go around.

[Count_Erfit]

That's why I was noting the HIGH inventory levels.

 

Few weeks ago trying to find someone who NEEDED an 1893s dollar was pretty useless.

 

In MY limited experience at the time with ONLY ONE to sell.

 

I do not KNOW. I just do not have much optimism at this time.

 

And that's just ME.

 

[michael]

i have optomism and i think themarketis good and going to get better for scarce coins that have value and are easilycollectible and have history and have not so far parcipitated in the boom and huge run up of prices

 

but again the coins as per below i think are solid even if the matrket crashes tomorrow theses will not go down much if anything as they are scarce beautiful undervalued sleeper coins and again that have not seen much if any price increases in the last few years

 

gem and superb gem colored proof three cent nicks with amazing eye appeal

 

gem and superb gem proof three cent nicks that are deeply cameoeed from the early to middle 1870's

 

choice proof strongly cameoed civil war era gold coins especially so the ones quarter eagles and three dollar and 5 dollar gold pieces

 

 

gem and superb gem proof civil war era colored with fantastic eye appeal two cent pieces

 

proof half cents in choice to gem proof strongly mirrored with fantastic eye appeal and great coloring with classic head cameoed gem proof colored half cents in proof extra special

 

middle date large cents with great coloring and superb gem ms grade with incredible eye appeal the young heads of the 1837 to 39 era especially so

 

wildly colored choice to superb gem pre 1917 type coins in ms and especially so the cc coinage

 

superb gem original mintstate with great eye appeal copper nickel indian head cents

 

as above but in superb gem proof with heavy cameo

 

choice to gem proof colored indian head cents with strong mirrors and cameo brown and rb with great eye appeal post 1880

 

choice proof no motto cameoed seated dollars

 

gem proof strongly stellar cameoed proof only trades

 

deep /ultra cameo gem seated coins in proof

 

post 1901 deep ultra cameoed beter dimes and quarters in proof

 

superb gem proof 36 buffs in satin finish with monster rainbow color

 

superb gem proof roman finish full red 1909 matte proof lincoln cents

 

on a side note, man do i have bad gas tonight

 

superb gem rb bn rainbow toned proof 1942 cents

 

gem ms greatly colored rarer variety capped bust large size open collar dimes and closed collar half dimes rarity 4 and higher well if you can find them as they are the highest degree and magnitude of rarity

 

gem mintstate wildly colored type two trimes

 

wildly colored gem proof strongly cameoed or not lib nicks

 

greatly colored gem mintstate way above average strike double dimes and especially so the 75-s $$$ mintmark variety

 

choice to gem proof strongly cameoed seated quarters

 

pre 1955 s mint franklins in superb gem ms from mint sets with wild color

 

gem ms wildly colored gold dollars 1879 to 1889

[Count_Erfit]

And where, Sir, is your mention of the ultra desirable Wisconsin "extra leaf" quarter?

 

Harrumph!

 

[jom]

And where, Sir, is your mention of the ultra desirable Wisconsin "extra leaf" quarter?

 

Yeah, I think Michael has gone off the deep end. How could someone with years of expericence forget about the great Wisconsin rarity? Boggles the mind.

 

 

jom

[michael]

i missed the boat again

 

i just saw in coin world feb 28 2005 issue that the spectular rare extremely desirable extra leaf wisconsin state quarters for sale and how they have been going up 25 dollars per day since they hit the numismatic scene in early jan 2005

 

and they are priced at 1999.00 for the ngc ms67 discovery set personally signed by the discoverer and numbered inside the case same sets at ms66 are at 1399.00 and ms65 at 999.00 i think this is what the article said full page article in the feb 28 coin world page 67

 

aND from other reports i have read

 

soon to be the only state quarter variety in the red book and some high exsalted mystic rulers of coins have said these coins are the best of the best the most fantastic thing that has happened to the world of coins since jesus christ himself exclaimed about the tribute penny of tiberius caesar during both their lifetimes when he picked up the coin in answer to a question about paying taxes and said give unto caesar what is caesars and give to God what is Gods

 

so i michael say unto you give to the wisconsin state quarters hi low extra real or imagined leafs, give what you will with money you can affrrd to lose and something you want to and enjoy collecting

 

[michael]

i myself think all the sexy self promotion and tasty teasing hype is much better than the actual quarters themselves

 

i loves it

[Beijim]

Michael, I believe this may be the funniest post you've ever written.

 

Rock on,

Beijim

[Oldtrader3]

Right on, Michael!

[EZ_E]

i have optomism and i think themarketis good and going to get better for scarce coins that have value and are easilycollectible and have history and have not so far parcipitated in the boom and huge run up of prices

 

but again the coins as per below i think are solid even if the matrket crashes tomorrow theses will not go down much if anything as they are scarce beautiful undervalued sleeper coins and again that have not seen much if any price increases in the last few years

 

gem and superb gem colored proof three cent nicks with amazing eye appeal

 

gem and superb gem proof three cent nicks that are deeply cameoeed from the early to middle 1870's

 

choice proof strongly cameoed civil war era gold coins especially so the ones quarter eagles and three dollar and 5 dollar gold pieces

 

 

gem and superb gem proof civil war era colored with fantastic eye appeal two cent pieces

 

proof half cents in choice to gem proof strongly mirrored with fantastic eye appeal and great coloring with classic head cameoed gem proof colored half cents in proof extra special

 

middle date large cents with great coloring and superb gem ms grade with incredible eye appeal the young heads of the 1837 to 39 era especially so

 

wildly colored choice to superb gem pre 1917 type coins in ms and especially so the cc coinage

 

superb gem original mintstate with great eye appeal copper nickel indian head cents

 

as above but in superb gem proof with heavy cameo

 

choice to gem proof colored indian head cents with strong mirrors and cameo brown and rb with great eye appeal post 1880

 

choice proof no motto cameoed seated dollars

 

gem proof strongly stellar cameoed proof only trades

 

deep /ultra cameo gem seated coins in proof

 

post 1901 deep ultra cameoed beter dimes and quarters in proof

 

superb gem proof 36 buffs in satin finish with monster rainbow color

 

superb gem proof roman finish full red 1909 matte proof lincoln cents

 

on a side note, man do i have bad gas tonight

 

superb gem rb bn rainbow toned proof 1942 cents

 

gem ms greatly colored rarer variety capped bust large size open collar dimes and closed collar half dimes rarity 4 and higher well if you can find them as they are the highest degree and magnitude of rarity

 

gem mintstate wildly colored type two trimes

 

wildly colored gem proof strongly cameoed or not lib nicks

 

greatly colored gem mintstate way above average strike double dimes and especially so the 75-s $$$ mintmark variety

 

choice to gem proof strongly cameoed seated quarters

 

pre 1955 s mint franklins in superb gem ms from mint sets with wild color

 

gem ms wildly colored gold dollars 1879 to 1889

 

michael

Users may choose many (33 total votes)

This guy knows his bizzness

18 50%

 

he's ok

8 22%

 

Mike is great as long as he stays on topic

10 28%

 

 

TTT