Coin Market in the Tank?

[jaxcomics]

I sell locally at the flea market to supplement income, and as much as I love comics, these days I would much rather have old coins and various low-end proof sets on my table than just about any other type of collectible. As long as they are priced reasonably and set-up in a manner to promote purchase (containers of coins to dig through, low-priced older silver coins, etc), people love them. Meanwhile, nobody wants to touch any kind of comic or sports card, they might as well be made of a radioactive substance. Maybe the lower-end of the coin hobby is trending downwards, but in my area at least, it sure has a LONG way to go to hit the bottom in general public perception that a lot of other hobbies are at.

[coinman_23885]

the market on many non-expensive issues has completely tanked IMHO.

Can you give us some examples ?

 

In no particular order and off the top of my head... Many gem MS65-MS66 type coins (e.g. Seated Liberty Dimes and Barber Head Dimes, gem to superb gem Washington silver Quarters and Roosevelt Dimes, gem MS65-MS66 Saint Gaudens Double Eagles, generic gold generally, gem proof Mercury Dimes, short set Mercury Dimes and Walking Liberty Half Dollars appear to have taken a dip in MS65-MS67 in many cases, many non-monster toned classic commemoratives have continued their more than decade long beating, and even MS65-MS67 Morgan and Peace Dollars are trading a good bit less than they were even a couple to few years ago or more.

 

On the other hand, much of the Capped Bust material seems to be doing fine as are the high end of the market.

[World Colonial]

The examples you just gave, many of them are only bought by the top 5% of collectors and to most, they are hardly inexpensive. If there are 1.5MM to 2MM active collectors, maybe as many as 100,000 spend $1,000 or more on a single coin which is what many of the series you listed in those grades cost. (Outside of Washington quarters, FDR dimes and many classic commemoratives.)

 

Also, how much has the decline been to your knowledge?

 

From 1989, some classic commemoratives might (don't actually know) have lost as much as 75% in MS-65 because of the prior bubble. As one example, the Stone Mountain in MS-65 seems to sell for about $150 whereas my 1989 Redbook lists it at $500 and I recall it reaching $700. If today's MS-66 is the 1989 MS-65, this grade now costs somewhat over $300.

[brg5658]

What the market has done is done.

 

What the market is doing you can't control.

 

What the market will do is just speculation, no matter how smart you think you are.

 

So, why does it really matter where the market is today compared to the past or the potential (speculative) future?

 

What we do have control over is where we spend our dollars today.

 

Buy what you like, at what you deem fair prices, and the rest will fall where it may.

[World Colonial]

What the market has done is done.

 

What the market is doing you can't control.

 

What the market will do is just speculation, no matter how smart you think you are.

 

So, why does it really matter where the market is today compared to the past or the potential (speculative) future?

 

What we do have control over is where we spend our dollars today.

 

Buy what you like, at what you deem fair prices, and the rest will fall where it may.

 

I am primarily a collector but not in the habit of buying coins which I think are going to sell for less later, especially if most of them are as common as most US coins actually are.

 

This is why when I saw prices peaking for my South Africa Union and ZAR series, I got rid of most of them to "cash in" on the windfall. I didn't start out to make money in them but I knew (yes, knew) it was unsustainable because most of the coins most collectors wanted to buy weren't affordable to them in that market. There was no possibility I was going to pass it up, regardless of how much I liked those coins.

 

I am still not buying them except in isolation now because I think they will lose more value, the price structure is "out of whack" and I can buy better coins for the same money in my other series.

 

If I collected US material and concurrently believed it is likely to sell for less or a lot less later, I wouldn't buy it now.

 

Why would I want to pay more now for something that I think will sell for less later? And this is true, regardless that I cannot predict the future.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

No not in particular as I see that you stated that you only deal in High End inventory, however I should have just quoted your last sentence.

 

In other words, when a person with limited means buys what they feel is a nice coin for the money, and is constantly told that the stuff they are buying is dreck, then that person has only two choices, keep buying what their discretionary funds allow and not participate in open forums such as these, or somehow increase their available funds so they can buy your High End goods.

 

I guess a third option available to them is to just get out of the hobby altogether.

 

In either scenario, the ramifications from the disparaging comments about other less liquid individuals coins, in such a gruff manner as I routinely see by some, can ultimately lead to declining sales in the md to lower end of the coin market.

 

I can see it no other way.

 

 

this is true. I am tight, have a kid and have multiple hobbies so my coin funds are limited. The "helpful comments about something you are proud of being a "place holder" are a problem with forums on the whole. Trees, cars, everyone I belong to. Then again, it does happen in real life also. My neighbor is more of a perfectionist than I. Somehow I see defects in trees well and I am sure I ride people a little hard about certain auto repairs not being up to snuff so I know I do it to others sometime.

[Houston Investor]

I don't believe anyone buying "dreck" should get out of the hobby as that is a subjective definition depending on who's self serving best interests it suits. It all adds up whether VG or MS67.

 

I have made money on junk box material and high end scarce material. Its all a matter of if they have the money, its what they want, and if they will pay the price.

 

My focus is tracking market indexes - PCGS 3000, gold and silver spot, things like CDN Bid on a classic commem set, etc. These numbers don't lie vs someones qualitative bourse floor BS.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

I think the internet is somewhat to blame.

 

If a dealer wants to sell a 50's grade Mercury dime he hasnto compete with me and everyone else on ebay. We can price shop INSTANTLY from our smart phones and find the cheapest one out there. Same in the industry I work in.

 

Also, when I decided I wanted a flying eagle penny I did not need to get off the toilet and go find one. I typed it into google and there were more than I could hope to buy. I found a pair, bought them and sold one. The internet also brings together buyers and sellers.

 

The "buy one nice coin" idea also sucks money into the CAC and grading services and away from moderately priced coins. Every $100 spent on plastic holders and stickers is a $100 not spent on coins. Grading and certifications sure would make me feel better about buying expensive coins online though so it is a necessary evil I suppose unless someone starts holding online auctions of coins they certified as genuine themselves and that just isn't fleabay and I am unaware of any auction house for $1 to $100 coins that will take the time to guarantee them. (Maybe I just haven't looked well. There has to be one, right)

[wdrob]

 

I don't believe anyone buying "dreck" should get out of the hobby as that is a subjective definition depending on who's self serving best interests it suits.

 

Absolutely agree as anyone that is discouraged by anything or anyone pertaining to the hobby should really not even consider that option if they truly do enjoy collecting pieces of history.

 

I will add that I am not so sure I would even agree with the premise that the mid to low end coin market is stagnant or dismal in sales. I would ask that anyone not misunderstand my reasoning. I am not a dealer, I don't keep up with CDN, Greysheets, etc.. But I am a buyer of many mid grade to to even low grade coins and I can say that I have a tough time getting the winning bid on some of these "not ready for prime time" examples in semi common date and mintmarks.

 

Right now I have bids on a couple of Seated Liberty Quarter Dollars and I have been outbid on one and the other is right at my top bid. Keep in mind that I am bidding OVER average realized auction prices for these pieces and was actually surprised when I was outbid and close to being out bid on the other.

 

So either I have to come off the wallet a bit more or I am going to miss out on them. That to me sounds like a thriving mid to low grade market.

 

This is not an isolated case either. I have in recent weeks had to bid way higher than I wanted to just so I could get a certain coin. The prices I have had to pay have been equivalent or higher than realized auction prices. In my opinion, if the market for these coins were in a slump, I can't imagine I would ever be a buyer once the slump recovers.

 

Just my

 

 

[World Colonial]

I will add that I am not so sure I would even agree with the premise that the mid to low end coin market is stagnant or dismal in sales. I would ask that anyone not misunderstand my reasoning. I am not a dealer, I don't keep up with CDN, Greysheets, etc.. But I am a buyer of many mid grade to to even low grade coins and I can say that I have a tough time getting the winning bid on some of these "not ready for prime time" examples in semi common date and mintmarks.

 

Right now I have bids on a couple of Seated Liberty Quarter Dollars and I have been outbid on one and the other is right at my top bid. Keep in mind that I am bidding OVER average realized auction prices for these pieces and was actually surprised when I was outbid and close to being out bid on the other.

 

I believe (since I don't really know either) that your experience is possibly representative for the material you are looking to buy. However, keep in mind that of the approximately 2MM or whatever number are collecting, most aren't buying the coins discussed on this forum or PCGS, including nice circulated classics such as the seated coins you mention. These coins are "low priced" by the standards on this forum and PCGS but not the general collector population.

 

The collector base for seated and Barber coinage is much smaller than it is for subsequent series, much of it due to the much lower supply in my opinion. Since the supply of these coins collectors actually like (those that look "original") is probably lower than those who actually want to buy them, this is why I believe you see what you described.

[wdrob]

I believe (since I don't really know either) that your experience is possibly representative for the material you are looking to buy. However, keep in mind that of the approximately 2MM or whatever number are collecting, most aren't buying the coins discussed on this forum or PCGS, including nice circulated classics such as the seated coins you mention. These coins are "low priced" by the standards on this forum and PCGS but not the general collector population.

 

The collector base for seated and Barber coinage is much smaller than it is for subsequent series, much of it due to the much lower supply in my opinion. Since the supply of these coins collectors actually like (those that look "original") is probably lower than those who actually want to buy them, this is why I believe you see what you described.

 

Below you will see the RAP's for that coin. I am being sweated on right now at nearly $500.00 .. When you look at the RAP's and what my bid is at right now, that is why I am of that above opinion. This is not that great of a coin and it is only a MS62. Maybe this is just one of those I should move on down the road on.

 

I like the look of the dog gone coin though! I hate to let this one go just because I am relying on possibly corrupt data.

 

Either way, I think this is a good illustration of a "vibrant" market. Just one such occasion I have cared to document. There have been many others I have been brought right to where I was willing to walk away.

 

So tot the initial question; "Coin Market in the Tank?" -- Maybe so based upon a dealers view, but as a buyer, no. It seems to be alive and well.

 

 

 

 

Looking at these auction prices; should I be in this coin at $500.00 + in a "buyers market"? Probably not.

 

 

 

[RWB]

Depends on the tank and what else is swimming in the tank.

[World Colonial]

Without even knowing how much the 100,000+ price points (date/MM combinations, die varieties, etc in different grades) sell for in todays market, I don't think it is a buyer's market either or that the coin market is "in the tank".

 

The decline in classic silver commemoratives since 1989, that's about as close to a "buyer's market" as I see in US coinage and I still don't think this series is really cheap or a compelling numismatic value except in grades below MS-65 given their actual numismatic merits. They are relatively affordable to a large number of buyers though.

[BillJones]

I certainly didn't see "a buyer's market" at the last Baltimore show. All but a couple of the quotes I received were higher than or close the the retail numbers from the "Coin Facts" web site.

[wdrob]

Depends on the tank and what else is swimming in the tank.

 

Can't really argue that logic.

 

 

[MarkVIIIMarc]

I believe (since I don't really know either) that your experience is possibly representative for the material you are looking to buy. However, keep in mind that of the approximately 2MM or whatever number are collecting, most aren't buying the coins discussed on this forum or PCGS, including nice circulated classics such as the seated coins you mention. These coins are "low priced" by the standards on this forum and PCGS but not the general collector population.

 

The collector base for seated and Barber coinage is much smaller than it is for subsequent series, much of it due to the much lower supply in my opinion. Since the supply of these coins collectors actually like (those that look "original") is probably lower than those who actually want to buy them, this is why I believe you see what you described.

 

Below you will see the RAP's for that coin. I am being sweated on right now at nearly $500.00 .. When you look at the RAP's and what my bid is at right now, that is why I am of that above opinion. This is not that great of a coin and it is only a MS62. Maybe this is just one of those I should move on down the road on.

 

I like the look of the dog gone coin though! I hate to let this one go just because I am relying on possibly corrupt data.

 

Either way, I think this is a good illustration of a "vibrant" market. Just one such occasion I have cared to document. There have been many others I have been brought right to where I was willing to walk away.

 

So tot the initial question; "Coin Market in the Tank?" -- Maybe so based upon a dealers view, but as a buyer, no. It seems to be alive and well.

 

 

 

 

Looking at these auction prices; should I be in this coin at $500.00 + in a "buyers market"? Probably not.

 

 

 

I have two trains of thought.

 

1, if these coins are going up in value at least in relation to the consumer price index or whatever inflation tracking system you like then the market in that range is doing ok.

 

2, if folks are spending a few hundred bucks at a time on coins en masse they are doing ok.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

Oh, and I am sure the ms62 is a fine coin. If you like it go for it.

[World Colonial]

I have two trains of thought.

 

1, if these coins are going up in value at least in relation to the consumer price index or whatever inflation tracking system you like then the market in that range is doing ok.

 

2, if folks are spending a few hundred bucks at a time on coins en masse they are doing ok.

 

I agree with the first one but don't know exactly what you mean by the second.

 

I agree that those who are able to buy coins as you describe are generally doing reasonably well - for now. At the same time, this isn't reflective of the broader or general economy.

 

Economic and financial conditional are better than they were in 2009 and maybe even a few years ago but I don't believe the financial circumstances of most people are improving at all. At most, most are "treading water".

 

Don't recall the source but I think it was either the Bureau of Labor Statistics or FRB Survey of Consumer Finances (2013). The median net worth according to this source was about $56k in 2013 money which is less than 1999. Of course, this doesn't reflect the changes in the fortunes of the same people over time but I believe it accurately reflects how most are doing.

 

Another statistic I saw is that 95% of the income gains from 2009-2012 went to the top 5% of income earners. The median annual income gain (after changes in the CPI I believe) for the remaining 95% was 0.4% over this period.

 

If this is how most are doing in a "recovery", I can hardly wait to see how they will do in the next recession or when the current financial bubble bursts, a worse economic downturn than the recent "Great Recession". This is the third episode of the credit mania just since 1999 and like the prior two, it will implode "eventually".

 

[Nutmeg Coin]

Lots of "buyers" make below market offers for numerous coins across the spectrum on ebay, at shows as well as eye-balling possibly undergraded coins for potential upgrades, CAC submissions, etc..

 

Type gold is especially weak, when gold first broke through $1200, MS62 $20s were trading at over $1700, now the premium hardly merits the expenses of grading service submissions. Classic commems. on GS expanded to MS66, which tells you something about how weak that market is with a few exceptions. Common date Morgans and Walkers have lost significant value with the exception of the toners. You really have to have an advanced degree to trade in this market.

[asdfgh]

I always see down turns a chance to upgrade my collection. I bought quite a lot of coins at the bottom of the last recession. I feel I did real well. I was not buying much as the prices seems to have gotten out of hand. Now however prices have come back down.

[okbustchaser]

Funny, people have been telling me that "the coin market is in the toilet" off and on and off and on and off and on ever since I first started buying coins back in the early 1960s.

 

 

 

Sure wish I could find the toilet that coin prices were in then.

[wdrob]

 

Lots of "buyers" make below market offers for numerous coins across the spectrum on ebay, at shows as well as eye-balling possibly undergraded coins for potential upgrades, CAC submissions, etc..

 

Well I certainly do not think that any potential "Upgrade" is the motive here. You will understand when I show the picture of the this "alleged" MS62 (I use alleged in a tongue and cheek manner since technically it could never even meet its obligation to the current plastic it resides in) but possibly the toning had something to do with it.

 

However I am out, and was somewhat relieved this evening when I received the email letting me know the bad news that I was now the low bidder. Whew!

 

So this person is in this coin at nearly $500.00 and there is still live bidding to come. Of course I did not expect much action on it in live bidding but I could have been wrong in that assumption.

 

Nope! I do not see the "market in the tank" on this particular low grade coin. Seems bidding nearly list is working here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nutmeg Coin]

Well, that is a nice original no problem coin so not surprised bidding is strong. Lots of tics and hairlines though.

 

Reminds me of a 76-cc 25c that Derrick from Black eagle asked me to send in for conservation that no one was interested in for under $100 as a darkly toned raw coin. Then I had it conserved for him and it came back MS62 and it was worth over $600.

[wdrob]

 

Well, that is a nice original no problem coin so not surprised bidding is strong. Lots of tics and hairlines though.

 

I would partly disagree. In my opinion, her right knee (viewers left) not only has a substantial rub, it has a nice little chunk missing which seems to be laying just above the rub. I would have thought they net graded a MS64 to a MS62, or something to that effect if had not been for all the scratches, etc...

 

Well .... Que Sera, Sera.

 

 

[MarkVIIIMarc]

Lots of "buyers" make below market offers for numerous coins across the spectrum on ebay, at shows as well as eye-balling possibly undergraded coins for potential upgrades, CAC submissions, etc..

 

Well I certainly do not think that any potential "Upgrade" is the motive here. You will understand when I show the picture of the this "alleged" MS62 (I use alleged in a tongue and cheek manner since technically it could never even meet its obligation to the current plastic it resides in) but possibly the toning had something to do with it.

 

However I am out, and was somewhat relieved this evening when I received the email letting me know the bad news that I was now the low bidder. Whew!

 

So this person is in this coin at nearly $500.00 and there is still live bidding to come. Of course I did not expect much action on it in live bidding but I could have been wrong in that assumption.

 

Nope! I do not see the "market in the tank" on this particular low grade coin. Seems bidding nearly list is working here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That is a pretty attractive tarnish pattern. I would love to have it. Not for $500, I am cheap, but I like the look. How long is it going to keep that look or will it progress over the rest of the coin?

[wdrob]

 

It will more than likely just tone deeper around the peripheral and add beauty and the center ares will probably stay about the same.

 

$460.00

($540.50 with BP)

 

Not worth it to me. I have an 1876, just not a 1876-S and although mine is only a MS61 (I think) to me the details are true and not inflated. There is no way that right knee could be anything but wear, imo.

 

 

 

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

It will more than likely just tone deeper around the peripheral and add beauty and the center ares will probably stay about the same.

 

$460.00

($540.50 with BP)

 

Not worth it to me. I have an 1876, just not a 1876-S and although mine is only a MS61 (I think) to me the details are true and not inflated. There is no way that right knee could be anything but wear, imo.

 

 

 

Could the inside of the left knee and the inside of the left lower thigh and the patella at the right knee possibly give pause that it is wear?

[wdrob]

 

 

Huh?

 

Not sure if that was a joke that I missed but I will assume so.

 

I derailed the thread by posting the picture of that first coin so I am having to stand in the corner right now -- but I will slide this out of my back pocket far enough that you can see it. Shhhh!

 

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

No joke was intended, although I am quite certain most of my remarks are. I no nothing about deciding such a condition from a photo. But, look at the 2nd coin, in the same locations I noted. I was curious if a strike issue could possibly account for the condition.

 

Not important, either way.

[wdrob]

 

Hmmm.

 

I would be of mind to think that is entirely possible. I would go further to say that since my knowledge of the series is somewhat limited, it could very well be probable.

 

I sure do like the design of that series. Always have since the first one I bought a couple of years ago and thought I had a nice coin. A nice whizzed coin that is.

 

Live and learn.