Is it my imagination or is the price of high grade Saints still falling?

[jkrk]

Glancing at the most recent sales of M66 Saints at the recent Heritage auction

 

I am seeing continuing erosion of selling prices for the high grade gems.

 

Am I correct?

 

What's going on?

 

Thnx,

[RWB]

Hmmmm...looks like buyers are biddling less that at some earlier time. Just a guess.

[CSdot]

I just checked eBay for the years I need (1907, 1914 and 1916) in MS66 and up and I couldn't find any for less than $6,800.

[MarkFeld]

I just checked eBay for the years I need (1907, 1914 and 1916) in MS66 and up and I couldn't find any for less than $6,800.

 

Do the Ebay examples represent actual sales or just asking pieces? And how do they compare to recent and older prices from other venues? I ask, because with reference points, they say nothing about whether prices have been dropping.

[James_OldeTowne]

In my experience, the market for very high grade Saints is indeed seeing values lowering over the past several years. My assumption has been that supply is growing while demand has remained stable.

[JIM F.]

I just checked eBay for the years I need (1907, 1914 and 1916) in MS66 and up and I couldn't find any for less than $6,800.

 

Do the Ebay examples represent actual sales or just asking pieces? And how do they compare to recent and older prices from other venues? I ask, because with reference points, they say nothing about whether prices have been dropping.

 

Exactly what are these "reference points" that you refer to?

 

 

[MarkFeld]

I just checked eBay for the years I need (1907, 1914 and 1916) in MS66 and up and I couldn't find any for less than $6,800.

 

Do the Ebay examples represent actual sales or just asking pieces? And how do they compare to recent and older prices from other venues? I ask, because with reference points, they say nothing about whether prices have been dropping.

 

Exactly what are these "reference points" that you refer to?

 

 

 

The thread title asks "Is it my imagination or is the price of high grade Saints still falling?" And then mention was made of prices for three dates on Ebay.

 

But it wasn't noted whether those were actual sales or not. And we haven't been made aware of previous sales prices of those or other dates, at earlier times. So at this point, those Eaby prices are essentially meaningless. If it turns out that they were actual sales and we are also provided with sale prices for the same dates at earlier times (reference points), then we might be in a position to answer the question posed in the thread title. It would also be helpful to be provided with some examples from the recent auction that was mentioned, as well as how those prices compare to previous ones over a period of time. Of course, if that information were obtained by the original poster, he wouldn't need our assistance in answering his question.

 

I

[CSdot]

I just checked eBay for the years I need (1907, 1914 and 1916) in MS66 and up and I couldn't find any for less than $6,800.

 

Do the Ebay examples represent actual sales or just asking pieces? And how do they compare to recent and older prices from other venues? I ask, because with reference points, they say nothing about whether prices have been dropping.

 

Those are asking prices. You are welcome to research the completed prices.

[jkrk]

Here's some dates I was looking at:

 

1908, 1923 D, 1924, 1927, and 1928 coins. Relatively common dates not the exception with limited supply.

 

I recognize the eye appeal for each coin is somewhat different. Perhaps some auctions drained more capital than the market could handle on that date? I'm trying to ascertain whether the overall price trend for the common year MS66 coins are still undergoing a price erosion? In my opinion they seem to be. I am asking the opinion of those that follow the prices on a regular basis not those that need to research the topic to draw a conclusion.

 

[coinman_23885]

Have you compared the quality of the coins? Grade inflation is rampant in this series, which is part of the reason that CAC coins trade at such a huge premium in this series (upwards of 50% or more at one point). Also, the market is not the greatest at the moment for these.

[messydesk]

Well, two 1928 in MS66 sold for $2350 each in the CSNS sale. They didn't have CAC stickers, but looked pretty nice from the photos (didn't look at them in person, mind you). I just checked the auction archives ATS, and there aren't any since 2012 that low.

[GoldFinger1969]

Check out these charts:

 

[GoldFinger1969]

The thread title asks "Is it my imagination or is the price of high grade Saints still falling?" And then mention was made of prices for three dates on Ebay.But it wasn't noted whether those were actual sales or not. And we haven't been made aware of previous sales prices of those or other dates, at earlier times. So at this point, those Eaby prices are essentially meaningless. If it turns out that they were actual sales and we are also provided with sale prices for the same dates at earlier times (reference points), then we might be in a position to answer the question posed in the thread title. It would also be helpful to be provided with some examples from the recent auction that was mentioned, as well as how those prices compare to previous ones over a period of time. Of course, if that information were obtained by the original poster, he wouldn't need our assistance in answering his question.I

 

On my Saint Gaudens thread a few months back, I detailed ACTUAL Ebay prices paid for and also contacted sellers and asked for hard offers (with or without discounts) on their selling prices.

 

Those were for MS-65 Saints, mostly common years, a few somewhat tougher years, mostly $3,000 and under.

[GoldFinger1969]

Here's some dates I was looking at: 1908, 1923 D, 1924, 1927, and 1928 coins. Relatively common dates not the exception with limited supply.

 

I bought 1924 and 1927 MS-65's in January and March of this year for about $1,800 each. (thumbs u

 

[FishyOne]

Here's some dates I was looking at: 1908, 1923 D, 1924, 1927, and 1928 coins. Relatively common dates not the exception with limited supply.

 

I bought 1924 and 1927 MS-65's in January and March of this year for about $1,800 each. (thumbs u

 

If those were accurately graded from a top TPG then you did quite well.

[GoldFinger1969]

Here's some dates I was looking at: 1908, 1923 D, 1924, 1927, and 1928 coins. Relatively common dates not the exception with limited supply.

I bought 1924 and 1927 MS-65's in January and March of this year for about $1,800 each. (thumbs u

If those were accurately graded from a top TPG then you did quite well.

 

PCGS....check my Saint threads for pics. The experts here seemed to think I did OK/well -- didn't get a steal, but didn't overpay, either.

 

I'm happy. (thumbs u

[CSdot]

GF,

 

Any new additions? I looked at a common 1914S graded MS65 by PCGS at a show this weekend. Dealer had it labeled $2,200 (obviously you negotiate down from there), but the luster wasn't so great compared to the others he had (even more common). The dealer said he considered sending it in for a regrade hoping for a 66. I counted two 1 mm dings (one on each side), that while not big detractors, I suspect they might keep it out of a 66 holder.

 

 

[jkrk]

A couple questions regarding CAC coins:

 

1)I was looking at common date MS66 CAC coins and the premiums seem to run 10%-20% over non CAC coins of the same grade. Does that seem about right?

 

2)Given the price differential between Cac coins and non, I also assume that most 66 coins were sent to Cac before being offered? Thus, in general these coins (without the sticker) were deemed "less solid for it's grade than those with the sticker?

 

Thougts?

 

[MarkFeld]

A couple questions regarding CAC coins:

 

1)I was looking at common date MS66 CAC coins and the premiums seem to run 10%-20% over non CAC coins of the same grade. Does that seem about right?

 

2)Given the price differential between Cac coins and non, I also assume that most 66 coins were sent to Cac before being offered? Thus, in general these coins (without the sticker) were deemed "less solid for it's grade than those with the sticker?

 

Thougts?

 

1) What prices did you use for non-CAC MS66 and CAC MS66 examples, to come up with your 10-20% premium estimate? I think the premium is approximately 50%. Or using round numbers - roughly $3750 vs. $2500.

 

2) Due to the premium involved, I think it is prudent to operate under the assumption that many or most examples have been tried at CAC.

 

[jkrk]

A couple questions regarding CAC coins:

 

1)I was looking at common date MS66 CAC coins and the premiums seem to run 10%-20% over non CAC coins of the same grade. Does that seem about right?

 

2)Given the price differential between Cac coins and non, I also assume that most 66 coins were sent to Cac before being offered? Thus, in general these coins (without the sticker) were deemed "less solid for it's grade than those with the sticker?

 

Thougts?

 

1) What prices did you use for non-CAC MS66 and CAC MS66 examples, to come up with your 10-20% premium estimate? I think the premium is approximately 50%. Or using round numbers - roughly $3750 vs. $2500.

 

2) Due to the premium involved, I think it is prudent to operate under the assumption that many or most examples have been tried at CAC.

 

I believe I've read too many articles on Cac coins and mixed up the pricing.

 

A wikipedia article mentioned that the sticker added around 5-15%.

 

I purchased one of the 1932 Eagles from Heritage this past week in MS64+ (my first CAC coin) which sold for about 10-15% higher than a prior non cac coin auction. Overall I confused the pricing.

 

I then checked the Heritage archives for Cac MS66 Saints and of course you were correct. (thumbs u

 

I did read an article that indicated approx 40% of the coins submitted to Cac are approved. It further went on to indicate that the number might represent approx 20% of all coins graded might receive a Cac sticker(since dealers would only send their best coins). Would you have any idea if those numbers are currently accurate or are the numbers dropping (since many better coins have already been sent)?

[$ilverHawk]

A couple questions regarding CAC coins:

 

1)I was looking at common date MS66 CAC coins and the premiums seem to run 10%-20% over non CAC coins of the same grade. Does that seem about right?

 

2)Given the price differential between Cac coins and non, I also assume that most 66 coins were sent to Cac before being offered? Thus, in general these coins (without the sticker) were deemed "less solid for it's grade than those with the sticker?

 

Thougts?

 

1) What prices did you use for non-CAC MS66 and CAC MS66 examples, to come up with your 10-20% premium estimate? I think the premium is approximately 50%. Or using round numbers - roughly $3750 vs. $2500.

 

2) Due to the premium involved, I think it is prudent to operate under the assumption that many or most examples have been tried at CAC.

 

Just for fun, I checked out the most recent Heritage Auction results for 1927 MS66 St. Gaudens $20 Eagles.

 

Here is what I saw.

 

Non CAC

 

$2467

$2585

$2299

$2467

$2820

$2585

 

CAC

 

$3818

$4112

$4112

$3995

$4112

$3818

 

If you do the math, that is an average of CAC coins selling for 57% higher than non CAC coins. I'm not sure what this means for collectors, but if you are a dealer, it is clearly a sign that CAC has a dominate position in the St. Gaudens marketplace. Granted, it is only a brief analysis of a single common date, there may be differences for rarer dates.

 

As a collector, this is just as upsetting to me as TPG s being market makers. As stated in a previous post--"Follow the money, who benefits?" We now have a fourth party that applies a "premium sticker" to higher quality coins within a specific grade. The result of that "premium sticker" may be a clearer definition of an A, B, or C coin---but it results in a higher price for the market.

 

IMO CAC is a marketing device under the guise of "cleaning up" gradeflation. What CAC is actually creating is larger profits for dealers and auction houses and higher costs for collectors.

 

Carl

 

 

[MarkFeld]

A couple questions regarding CAC coins:

 

1)I was looking at common date MS66 CAC coins and the premiums seem to run 10%-20% over non CAC coins of the same grade. Does that seem about right?

 

2)Given the price differential between Cac coins and non, I also assume that most 66 coins were sent to Cac before being offered? Thus, in general these coins (without the sticker) were deemed "less solid for it's grade than those with the sticker?

 

Thougts?

 

1) What prices did you use for non-CAC MS66 and CAC MS66 examples, to come up with your 10-20% premium estimate? I think the premium is approximately 50%. Or using round numbers - roughly $3750 vs. $2500.

 

2) Due to the premium involved, I think it is prudent to operate under the assumption that many or most examples have been tried at CAC.

 

I believe I've read too many articles on Cac coins and mixed up the pricing.

 

A wikipedia article mentioned that the sticker added around 5-15%.

 

I purchased one of the 1932 Eagles from Heritage this past week in MS64+ (my first CAC coin) which sold for about 10-15% higher than a prior non cac coin auction. Overall I confused the pricing.

 

I then checked the Heritage archives for Cac MS66 Saints and of course you were correct. (thumbs u

 

I did read an article that indicated approx 40% of the coins submitted to Cac are approved. It further went on to indicate that the number might represent approx 20% of all coins graded might receive a Cac sticker(since dealers would only send their best coins). Would you have any idea if those numbers are currently accurate or are the numbers dropping (since many better coins have already been sent)?

 

The % of coins that sticker varies by type and grade. For example, the premium for MS66 Saints is due largely to the small % of 66 Saints which meet CAC's standards. Some other coins have much smaller premiums.

 

I don't know about the accuracy of the numbers you read, but they at least sound reasonable.

[MarkFeld]

A couple questions regarding CAC coins:

 

1)I was looking at common date MS66 CAC coins and the premiums seem to run 10%-20% over non CAC coins of the same grade. Does that seem about right?

 

2)Given the price differential between Cac coins and non, I also assume that most 66 coins were sent to Cac before being offered? Thus, in general these coins (without the sticker) were deemed "less solid for it's grade than those with the sticker?

 

Thougts?

 

1) What prices did you use for non-CAC MS66 and CAC MS66 examples, to come up with your 10-20% premium estimate? I think the premium is approximately 50%. Or using round numbers - roughly $3750 vs. $2500.

 

2) Due to the premium involved, I think it is prudent to operate under the assumption that many or most examples have been tried at CAC.

 

Just for fun, I checked out the most recent Heritage Auction results for 1927 MS66 St. Gaudens $20 Eagles.

 

Here is what I saw.

 

Non CAC

 

$2467

$2585

$2299

$2467

$2820

$2585

 

CAC

 

$3818

$4112

$4112

$3995

$4112

$3818

 

If you do the math, that is an average of CAC coins selling for 57% higher than non CAC coins. I'm not sure what this means for collectors, but if you are a dealer, it is clearly a sign that CAC has a dominate position in the St. Gaudens marketplace. Granted, it is only a brief analysis of a single common date, there may be differences for rarer dates.

 

As a collector, this is just as upsetting to me as TPG s being market makers. As stated in a previous post--"Follow the money, who benefits?" We now have a fourth party that applies a "premium sticker" to higher quality coins within a specific grade. The result of that "premium sticker" may be a clearer definition of an A, B, or C coin---but it results in a higher price for the market.

 

IMO CAC is a marketing device under the guise of "cleaning up" gradeflation. What CAC is actually creating is larger profits for dealers and auction houses and higher costs for collectors.

 

Carl

 

 

You omitted the benefit to the collectors who get their coins stickered and are able to sell them for higher prices. Lots of collectors own lots of nice coins, so they are not insignificant beneficiaries.

[physics-fan3.14]

Carl, how do the 66-CAC and non-CAC coins compare to 67 coins? How do they compare to 66-Plus graded coins? I don't know what the pops are, or how many have sold (if there are enough to form a valid comparison).

 

Theoretically, a 66-CAC and a 66+ should be valued roughly the same (since both are, hypothetically, the "premium" coins - A's and B's for the date). However, I suspect that 66-CAC coins will sell for more than 66-Plus coins.

 

It would take a very common date to break it down even further, and analyze NGC vs. PCGS for each of these strata.

[jom]

IMO CAC is a marketing device under the guise of "cleaning up" gradeflation. What CAC is actually creating is larger profits for dealers and auction houses and higher costs for collectors.

 

Carl

 

 

How do you know there are "larger profits" for dealers? If MS66 CAC coins are selling at premiums then you'd think the dealers are themselves paying higher prices as well. So I don't think there are "higher profits" if the dealer's buy price is higher.

 

jom

[jom]

You omitted the benefit to the collectors who get their coins stickered and are able to sell them for higher prices. Lots of collectors own lots of nice coins, so they are not insignificant beneficiaries.

 

Over time it all comes out in the wash as they say. Some people did well and some didn't...it all came down to who owned the premium coins to begin with....it could be a dealer but if you look at in over the long-term it will usually be a collector who benefits as they are the ones holding the coins in collections.

 

jom

[messydesk]

We're led to assume, therefore, that any MS66 common date Saint on the "conspicuous" market (at major auctions or larger dealers on the national show circuit) has been tried at CAC. Do the auction houses go one step further and attempt a sticker on unstickered coins based on their discretion and not the request of the consignor?

[MarkFeld]

We're led to assume, therefore, that any MS66 common date Saint on the "conspicuous" market (at major auctions or larger dealers on the national show circuit) has been tried at CAC. Do the auction houses go one step further and attempt a sticker on unstickered coins based on their discretion and not the request of the consignor?

 

To my knowledge, we submit to CAC if a client requests it or requests that we review coins for that possibility, but don't do so, otherwise.

[$ilverHawk]

IMO CAC is a marketing device under the guise of "cleaning up" gradeflation. What CAC is actually creating is larger profits for dealers and auction houses and higher costs for collectors.

 

Carl

 

 

How do you know there are "larger profits" for dealers? If MS66 CAC coins are selling at premiums then you'd think the dealers are themselves paying higher prices as well. So I don't think there are "higher profits" if the dealer's buy price is higher.

 

jom

 

CAC is a dealer/auction house oriented marketing device. To be clear, what I am addressing is the submittal of coins to CAC by dealers that result in an instantaneous market appreciation upon the awarding of a CAC sticker. Not the buying and selling of CAC stickered coins. Professional coin dealers, especially those with a large regional or national presence have access to many more coins than does the average collector. Professional coin dealers also have superior knowledge and skills to determine if a particular coin is premium for the grade. They can "cherry pick" much better than the average collector particularly when they know what CAC is looking for.

 

Key point is "if the dealer's buy price is higher." It isn't. Savvy dealers have been playing the CAC game. They buy premium coins as low as possible, submit to CAC and enjoy the profit when they sell.

 

Example, 1827 St. Gaudens MS66 "cherry picked" at a cost of $2800-$2900. CAC sticker $3800-$4100. That is a higher profit.Yes, collectors can do the same thing, just not at the volume and precision that large dealers can.

 

Bottom line, the price of premium collector coins has increased due to CAC market influences.

 

Carl

[jom]

IMO CAC is a marketing device under the guise of "cleaning up" gradeflation. What CAC is actually creating is larger profits for dealers and auction houses and higher costs for collectors.

 

Carl

 

 

How do you know there are "larger profits" for dealers? If MS66 CAC coins are selling at premiums then you'd think the dealers are themselves paying higher prices as well. So I don't think there are "higher profits" if the dealer's buy price is higher.

 

jom

 

CAC is a dealer/auction house oriented marketing device. To be clear, what I am addressing is the submittal of coins to CAC by dealers that result in an instantaneous market appreciation upon the awarding of a CAC sticker. Not the buying and selling of CAC stickered coins. Professional coin dealers, especially those with a large regional or national presence have access to many more coins than does the average collector. Professional coin dealers also have superior knowledge and skills to determine if a particular coin is premium for the grade. They can "cherry pick" much better than the average collector particularly when they know what CAC is looking for.

 

Key point is "if the dealer's buy price is higher." It isn't. Savvy dealers have been playing the CAC game. They buy premium coins as low as possible, submit to CAC and enjoy the profit when they sell.

 

Example, 1827 St. Gaudens MS66 "cherry picked" at a cost of $2800-$2900. CAC sticker $3800-$4100. That is a higher profit.Yes, collectors can do the same thing, just not at the volume and precision that large dealers can.

 

Bottom line, the price of premium collector coins has increased due to CAC market influences.

 

Carl

 

However, you also have to consider it is VERY difficult to get a sticker on a Saint. I've discussed this with JA in one of his phone conferences. So it isn't as easy as "cherry picking". The dealers could lose out just as easily.

 

You are also assuming that the "premium" has risen. In fact, it may be that MS66 non-CAC simply FELL in price. Even if the price has risen then you could argue those MS66 are now at their correct market price and the others have dropped due to over-grading. To me, this only HELPS the market overall as you know what you are buying.

 

jom