The Gold & Silver Price Thread

[GoldFinger1969]

Here's one of those APMEX Specials they offer from time-to-time......

 

The price you've been waiting for - 2014 1 oz Silver American Eagles just

$2.79 per coin over spot until Midnight Thursday

[GoldFinger1969]

A couple of weak down days for gold thanks to our new FOMC Chairwoman:

 

It was all working for gold. And then Janet Yellen spoke.

 

In her first news conference as the Fed chairwoman, Yellen seemed to imply the Fed might raise short-term rates sooner than many market participants expected.

 

Immediately following those remarks, gold continued to head south, capping off a four-day stretch in which the shiny metal has lost almost 5%. The move also marks quite a reversal for gold, which was in the midst of its best Q1 performance since 1985.

 

So is that as good as it gets for gold? According to some traders: Yes

 

“Gold is a competitor to cash in a zero interest rate environment,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management. “But when interest rates are on the rise, or expected to be, gold becomes a far less attractive investment.”

 

Traders point to some recent changes in the overall market that could provide significant headwinds for gold; higher rates, a stronger dollar and an easing in geopolitical tension.

 

Now that Ukraine has cooled, “the need for safe haven seems decreased,” said Gina Sanchez of Chantico Global .

 

Those factors are unlikely to change in the near-term.

 

“You still have increasingly hawkish central banks and overly bullish sentiment in gold,” said Enis Taner of riskreversal.com. “That’s probably not changing anytime soon. I expect gold to be range-bound between $1,200 and $1,400 for the next few months.”

 

Unfortunately for gold bugs, the technical set up isn’t looking much better. In fact, according to Steven Pytlar of Prime Executions, the charts point to more pain for gold.

 

Said Pytlar, “we could see a substantial drop to $1200

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

I used to work for a mid-sized financial publishing company that was mainly focused on investing in commodities, mainly energies and metals.

 

So I can tell you first hand that the their primary goal is to sell you a subscription to one of their premium services. They have no interest in presenting the facts or truth...it's all spin. Or at least it was 100% spin at the company that I worked with.

 

But that's the innocent part. After they sell you a subscription, they're going to recommend a gold or silver stock for you (and everyone else) to buy. But before they make the recommendation, they'll buy up the stock, then sell it into the hype. It's called pump and dump and it's incredibly easy to get away with as long as you have offshore accounts.

 

My point, beware of who you're listening too, especially when it comes to investing. From my experience, they're not interested in making you any money as much as they are interested in making money themselves.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

Bill, when I was with that publishing company, my expertise was micro-cap mineral exploration. The one thing that none of these "analysts" tell you about these companies is very very few actually turn into mining companies. There are something like 1,200 junior mining companies on the TSX-Venture. Of those, something like 6 will become actual mining companies...it's about 1 in 200.

 

Now of course, actually becoming a mining company is not every exploration company's goal. There are many that are looking to add value to their properties through drilling and expanding their reserves and resources. Then sell their properties to an actual mining company that will exploit the resources. But this is also a craps shoot. First, of course there's no guarantee that they'll find anything. But then there's a thousand other things that could go wrong...environmentalists, political instability, etc.

 

After studying the micro-cap mineral exploration for years, I've found that the best way to make money in that industry is to be on the inside, i.e. start your own mineral exploration company and promote the hell out of it. There's too many problems on the retail side of micro-cap mineral exploration...And I didn't even mention that micro-cap mineral exploration are perhaps the most manipulated equities across the global market.

 

BUYER BEWARE!!!!!!!

[GoldFinger1969]

I used to work for a mid-sized financial publishing company that was mainly focused on investing in commodities, mainly energies and metals. So I can tell you first hand that the their primary goal is to sell you a subscription to one of their premium services. They have no interest in presenting the facts or truth...it's all spin. Or at least it was 100% spin at the company that I worked with.But that's the innocent part. After they sell you a subscription, they're going to recommend a gold or silver stock for you (and everyone else) to buy. But before they make the recommendation, they'll buy up the stock, then sell it into the hype. It's called pump and dump and it's incredibly easy to get away with as long as you have offshore accounts.My point, beware of who you're listening too, especially when it comes to investing. From my experience, they're not interested in making you any money as much as they are interested in making money themselves.

 

Sounds like a lot of penny stock firms.....

[GoldFinger1969]

Bill, when I was with that publishing company, my expertise was micro-cap mineral exploration. The one thing that none of these "analysts" tell you about these companies is very very few actually turn into mining companies. There are something like 1,200 junior mining companies on the TSX-Venture. Of those, something like 6 will become actual mining companies...it's about 1 in 200.

 

Bre-X......

 

Now of course, actually becoming a mining company is not every exploration company's goal. There are many that are looking to add value to their properties through drilling and expanding their reserves and resources. Then sell their properties to an actual mining company that will exploit the resources. But this is also a craps shoot. First, of course there's no guarantee that they'll find anything. But then there's a thousand other things that could go wrong...environmentalists, political instability, etc.

 

Bre-X.....

 

After studying the micro-cap mineral exploration for years, I've found that the best way to make money in that industry is to be on the inside, i.e. start your own mineral exploration company and promote the hell out of it. There's too many problems on the retail side of micro-cap mineral exploration...And I didn't even mention that micro-cap mineral exploration are perhaps the most manipulated equities across the global market.BUYER BEWARE!!!!!!!

 

Bre-X......

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

yeah it was/is a penny stock chop shop.

 

and yeah remember Bre-X. in fact, the reason that Canada has the NI 43-101 today is a direct result of the Bre-X scandal.

 

what people don't seem to realized about equities is that their price has very little to do with the actual value of the companies that are behind them. and that the price of a stock has almost everything to do with supply and demand.

[GoldFinger1969]

what people don't seem to realized about equities is that their price has very little to do with the actual value of the companies that are behind them. and that the price of a stock has almost everything to do with supply and demand.

 

In the short-run that is true but over time valuations impact stock prices via both their supply and more so demand.

 

 

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

agreed. but investors don't hold their stock like they use to. in the 1960's investors held their stock for an average of 5 or 6 years (depending on your sources). today the average time an investor holds a stock is like 5 or 6 days (again, depending on your sources).

 

so while i agree that things work out in the end. the large majority of investors are not going to wait that long.

 

btw, the 5 or 6 day holding average does not include algorithmic trading, which can take place in just a few seconds for the larger investment houses.

[GoldFinger1969]

agreed. but investors don't hold their stock like they use to. in the 1960's investors held their stock for an average of 5 or 6 years (depending on your sources). today the average time an investor holds a stock is like 5 or 6 days (again, depending on your sources).

 

Mostly that is institutional changes in buy/hold patterns. I can show you the data that shows retail holders have not shortened their time horizon as much.

 

It IS shorter -- trading today is a fraction of 40+ years ago -- but the institutions (high-frequency trading, etc.) are the real short-timers.

 

btw, the 5 or 6 day holding average does not include algorithmic trading, which can take place in just a few seconds for the larger investment houses.

 

I'll get the data this weekend for both retail and institutional.

[GoldFinger1969]

Anybody see a Gold-infomercial offering U.S. Eagles at $150 or so ? They didn't indicate if it was a 1/10th ounce coin or not.....U.S. Silver Reserve or something....it was a 30-minute infomercial airing at about 4:30 AM on one of the NY sports channels.

 

I was wondering what exactly they were offering. I know the American Buffalo commercial for $50 says that it's a 'replica' though it is sneaky and some folks may think they're getting a $1,400 gold coin for 1/30th that price.

 

I didn't want to call the 1-800 number for more info and then get bombarded with phone calls....

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

yeah i'd actually really like that...when i first heard that stat it was like 2003/4. at the time it was said that the avg. hold time was 11 years in the '60s and 11 days today. i've never seen the data to back this. the 5/6 day source comes from a few different places: businessinsider.com, fool.com, cnbc.com

[GoldFinger1969]

yeah i'd actually really like that...when i first heard that stat it was like 2003/4. at the time it was said that the avg. hold time was 11 years in the '60s and 11 days today. i've never seen the data to back this. the 5/6 day source comes from a few different places: businessinsider.com, fool.com, cnbc.com

 

It's not that pronounced a decline. I'll get the data later today. I read it in Financial Analysts Journal a few months ago if you want to try and find it. I get FAJ because I belong to NYSSA and have a CFA.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

haven't seen that one exactly, but have seen them in the past. here's one that i've seen:

 

it starts off with talking about the specifics of the gold buffalo featuring an image of the real coin. then it cuts to an exact replica of the buffalo, which looks exactly the same, but is clad in 31 milligrams of gold.

 

Hmmmm. 31??? That's a real convenient number because there are 31 grams in a troy ounce. But obviously the reality is that 31 milligrams is equal to 0.0011 ounces of gold, worth a whopping $1.43 with gold at $1,300/oz. And they want $19.95 for it?!

 

Uh...Thanks...But no thanks.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

oh, ok so you're an analyst. so you know all about the pump and dump game?

 

PM sent.

[GoldFinger1969]

oh, ok so you're an analyst. so you know all about the pump and dump game? PM sent.

 

I actually got my retail start at the same firm where Jordan Belfort ("The Wolf Of Wall Street") got his. Penny-stock firm, high-pressure tactics, dubious stocks (to say the least) -- the works.

 

I'd say about 20% of us did legitimate business. 60% were hurting their clients but didn't know any better. And another 20% didn't care.

 

At Belfort's firm, it was probably 1% doing legitimate business, 9% hurting their clients but not knowing any better, and 90% not giving a hoot.

[Mr. Smith Guesser]

yeah i know that one. read my PM. that's who i worked for.