Large number of buybacks on session 2 B&M sale.

[truthteller]

I just ran an analysis of purchases versus buybacks for session two of the B&M sale and I hope this is not a representative of the current auction climate. 30% of the lots offered were bought back by the consignors, which is an unusually large number. Most auctions have buybacks of 10-17% and an ususually high number is 30-35%. Morgans and commems seemed to have been bought back the most, with gold being the best sold. Two scenarios come to mind. 1) The reserves are much too high from many consignors whose expectations are too high or 2) the market conditions are maturing and levels are plateauing. In addition, I attended a regional show today and several dealers who usually attend the Pre ANA decided to forgoe the Pre show. The scuttlebutt was that these dealers were using time and money more wisely. These dealers were getting shut out in the auctions, and would rather put more productive time at the smaller show with much less expense. Furthermore, I talked to two very active dealers who are thinning their inventories to be 'lean and mean' and holding much smaller inventories. Their plans are to clean out most of their stock at ANA and come home with cash, not coins. This should be an interesting show.

 

 

TRUTH

[michael]

i think this is a really great thread by truth as usual!!

 

i also think this is a really good market with sustained prices but i think what is different in this market from other run ups of years past are a variety of factors

 

one part is

 

is the collector is king strong prices will be paid but the coins have to be strong in the respect that they are amazing superlative and extraordinary for what they are

 

stuff even okie stuff is not bringing the strong prices many come to expect at auctios and coins tha are retreads or shopped around and not fresh and even if new and fresh are being put into auctions that are just not all there for strong prices and are wishful thinking by the consignors....... thinking that this market as with other strong runs ups of the past pushed everything up even all the [!@#%^&^] and average to okie stuff too

 

i think this market is totally different as you have more sophificated collector buyers moreso then just casual investors and these buyers of today will pay moon money like the jung auction but the coins need to be SPECIAL and i suspect that most if not all the buy backs where NOT SPECIAL coins this does not make the coins bad but the coins are what they are

 

maybe they do not have to be monsters per say it would help but the coins have to be special to bring these special prices by a more advanced picky group of buyers due to the internet information age and all that is available coin wise on this internet and a new learning curve so to speak STRONG COLLECTOR DOLLARS ARE OUT THERE BUT NOW IN THIS MARKET SOMEWHAT MORE PICKY AND SELECTIVE

 

what took myself 40 years to learn is now easily learned by a casual coin collector with internet use over a perios of a few years

 

 

also the run up in morgans is well kind of hyped up with promotion not 100% true collector demand and this i think this is causing some of the buybacks with what truths comments where as per his thread

 

same with early commems too but the problem with the early commems is different lots of overhang in the market and i bet this was most if not all of the buybacks too with the commems the OVERHANG -- ugly to average to blast white soldi for the grsade to many overgraded coins

 

half the ms 68 graded early commem coins are NOT MS68 AT BOTH SERVICES and i think these are still okie coins just not great or special

 

coins that are dipped blast white and at best average for the grade to many overgraded coins and with non special surface colors many consigners thinking they will be able to sell these coins that have been shopped and are not really special even if they are fresh to the market the coin maybe all there is a top tier holder higher grade but if blast white or just average eye appeal and/or toning well nothing special to me

 

in other run ups this pushed everything BUT TO a much lessor extent in this current market it is a solid market i think with many high prices and this is good but the high prices mean fantastic coins at these high prices

 

not for average to even decent coins amazing coins sell and bring amazing prices stuff to average coins to oike coins are just sitting there

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

and as usual i bet on the bourse there are many coins like these buybacks available for lower fair prices so why should the dealers bid??

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

now extra special coins with extraordinary qualities and eye appeal one in a thousand or one in a million coins i have no doubt they did well at auction with the buyers making good purchases of great coins and lots of these coins are just in storng hands and being put away

 

THE MARKET HAS CHANGED WITH INFORMATION AND A BETTER INFORMED BUYER COLLECTOR IN STRONG HANDS

 

[!@#%^&^] and average to even okie stuff is just not going to sell for big money at auctions and pie in the sky reserves and buy backs is not going to sell this overhang in the market

 

it can be sold for fair money but not pie in the sky prices

 

if you want pie in the sky prices you will need to have pie in the sky coins and i bet most to most all buy backs

maybe good coins but NOT PIE IN THE SKY COINS THE COINS DREAMS ARE MADE OF

 

to give you an example i BET MANY OF THE BUY BACKS DID NOT HAVE

THE TECHNICAL GRADE

RARITY

LUSTRE

EYE APPEAL OF THIS COIN

 

IN THIS SCAN I AM POSTING ON HERE

 

if you saw this coin in person you would [!@#%^&^] your pants as sight seen it is 100 times better than the scan

**********************************************************************************************************************************************************

and again it is always true in any market that BETTER COINS CAN ALWAYS BE BOUGHT ON THE BOURSE FOR LESS THAN IN AUCTION

 

i have seen this time and time again

 

************************************************************************************************************************************************

 

 

 

michael

[jom]

Seems as if the market just might be ready to

 

Uh oh.

 

jom

[EZ_E]

Great thread. I agree with Michael, in my experience anyway.

 

As I've matured as a collector and have gained more knowledge

 

and appreciation for great, original coins, I've had a tendency to

 

weed out alot of the "fluff" in my collection and concentrate more on great types.

 

Not only do I love original, nicely toned cameo proof types

 

but I can certainly appreciate some of the low mintage moderns

 

. For instance, the 1997 matte finish Jefferson with a mintage

 

of just 25,000 has tremendous potential as well as the

 

1998 S matte Kennedy with a mintage of 62,350.

 

Additionally, the 1996 W Roosevelt dime is appealing with a

 

mintage under 1.5 million. A couple of days ago, I went ahead

 

and substituted the above mentioned coins in my Dansco type album.

 

As I've mentioned before, I usually break my coins out of the

 

slabs in order to put them into my Dansco type album. Having a

 

coin slabbed by a grading service is definitely a plus and serves

 

as a guarantee when buying sight unseen but, for me, it is

 

not totally necessary. An ANA coin grading seminar armed me

 

with the basic knowledge to be able to grade and judge a

 

coin by its own merits, with or without a slab. It seems to me

 

that many coins are penalized for their originality. I have a

 

beautiful proof Liberty nickel that would easily upgrade one

 

or two points if it was conserved, thereby over doubling

 

its price. That's ok but I prefer it "as is". What will happen

 

when all of the original coins have been conserved?

 

The market will eventually swing back and realize that

 

pleasing, original coins are actually very scarce and will

 

demand a great premium.

 

The market may actually be bearing this out as

 

evidenced by the recent auction mentioned by Truthteller.

[Tradedollarnut]

I don't think the market is anything but strong ... however, I think the auctions have saturated it. Not three weeks ago $25M was absorbed by the market at NYC and now $50M is being offered at Pittsburgh.

 

It was a sparsely attended sale. Those that were there were seeking the Registry quality coins in the first session. There are major players for the right coins. But more and more 'stuff' is being recycled into the auctions - and that is not doing well the second or third time around.

 

Perhaps that's a healthy sign? When the recycled stuff starts flying off the shelf, then batten down the hatches!

[TomB]

This is an interesting thread, Truth, and I especially like many of the points that Michael has made. My question, since I was neither at the auction, nor did I examine the coins offered, is what quality was the coins that were bought back? It would seem to me that if most of the buy backs were Morgans and early commems then many of those coins were likely toned, perhaps most were attractive. Since the toned coin market has exploded in the last few years, we might see folks trying for moon money on coins that simply aren't all there in terms of eye appeal. This would create high reserves and buying resistance.

[truthteller]

Michael, you response was great and on target. I can agree with your analysis.

 

 

TRUTH

[truthteller]

TomB,

 

Your assumptions appear to be correct. I know of two lots in the B&M sale which I sold for moon money at a coin show beforehand. Now the lots are auctioned here and did not sell, telling me that 'moon money' reserves at auction may kill the sale of many nicely toned coins.

 

Hey, I noticed you are posting on PCGS boards again with insightfull responses.

 

 

TRUTH

[TomB]

I'm going to cut-and-paste (only because I am lazy) the PM response I have given to some folks over at PCGS and here who have noticed that I posted yesterday. Here is the response-

I come to the PCGS boards once every month or two and last night I came by and read the thread by JadeRareCoin about his mother, who was diagnosed with leukemia. He was asking for prayers, well wishes and comfort. I read his thread and thought that I might be able to add something and that posting on the boards to help someone was worth more than any dispute over philosophy that I might have with any company or person. So, I posted.

 

Since I was willing to post in that thread, I thought that I would start to post in others, too, as well as continue posting at NGC. In a way, I thought that perhaps no one would either notice that I was here or that no one would remember me.

I think I've made five posts in the two days at PCGS while I have made something like eleven here.

[jom]

I think I've made five posts in the two days at PCGS while I have made something like eleven here.

 

 

Traitor!

 

jom