Silver & Gold prices

[SWNGC]

The market is toppy now, but we are still a few months away from a major market downturn. Right now we are still riding earnings from stimulus money. Once the stimulus measures wratchet up, you'll start seeing inventory surpluses and and more red ink on manufacturing balance books. Especially if interest rates start to rise.

 

Where is the new money going to come from that is going to propel the market further?

 

Without agreement or disagreement (you know where I stand, as I've posted my last few trades in real time and to the penny), I'm simply questioning why you've used the previous email now, as it refers to Late Spring, hence my question related to your geography and the reference to "manufacturing" TARP funds, as no manufacturers received TARP money, unless you are trying to count GM, whose finance division received some funding for their own internal use within that division...

 

Just trying to explore the logic driving your assertions and examining whether the support that you've used has relevance to the assertion at hand and at this time...

 

Reserving comments related to QA/TA in general for now...

 

Respectfully...

[CHABSENTIA]

Let preface this by saying, that this is all my opinion:

 

The market is toppy now, but we are still a few months away from a major market downturn. Right now we are still riding corporate earnings from stimulus money. Once the stimulus measures wratchet up, the government will start looking for repayment to fund their own financial liabilites before interest rates on their debt begin to rise. Bingo, bango we still have a lot of liquidity, but it is all off the books.

 

IF, if ... and we are talking short term, the government doesn't introduce more stimulus measures, company will have to take steps to protect liquidity and cash-flow. Enter a layoff and inventory surplus cycle. Especially if interest rates on debt start to rise.

 

I don't want to sound like too much of a pessimist. The dollar is due for a run. Especially if countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy start defaulting on government debts. EU bailouts to these countries will debase the Euro short term and cause a USD rally. This will probably aid in the correction in metals and commodities, since they are priced vs the USD.

 

LONG TERM, commodities are where it is at. When the US economy finally reaches the 100% debt/GDP ratio (could be in two year time at this rate), the US govt' will lose it's AAA debt rating and the dollar will make a final descent. This is when it will pay to be commodity rich. This coming commodity correction (which, lets face it, is due), will be a great opportunity to load up the truck at the basement level (especially on palladium and silver - my favourites).

 

In one sentence:

 

Where is the new money going to come from that is going to propel the market further?

 

Enough of the fundamentals, here are a few technicals. (hope the links work)

 

Here is a Point and Figure Chart for the $NYSE showing an index bearish reversal:

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NYA,PLTCDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!4!20]&pnf=y

 

Major MACD crossover and reversal on the weekly charts (indicative of bearish reversal):

 

 

Silver has closed below the 40 day moving average on the weekly. MACD crossover bearish:

 

Silver forms head and shoulders pattern on the weekly as well as NEGATIVE divergence on ADX (red line moving upward crosses the green line)

 

Didn't have time to edit this ...

 

LOOKING FORWARD to more of your charts! This is wild fun for me since my wife is tired of hearing about my work!

 

Those TARP recipients would be GM and indirectly Chrysler - the backbone of American manufacturing! Already, the US government has written off one of Chrysler's $4 billion dollar loans!

 

A good portion of the Stimulus was used to pug the budget gaps of many States/ What happens when there is no Stimulus to plug them? California has the 8th largest economy in the world. Not the U..S .but the world. The economy is 5 times larger than that of Greece.Do you think that the U.S. will allow California etc to fail? Why was Chrysler bailed out in the first place? It was not a public corporation. It was a private equity firm owned by an investment group ny yhe name of "cerebus" who refused to inject capital into it. A precedent has been established with taxpayers bailing out a private firm.