How low can they go?

[SkyMan]

I love looking at classic commemoratives. There are many beautiful designs, and many have quite limited populations. However, classic commemoratives have been in the toilet for a long time. They just seem to continue to sink further and further down. I realize the wildly toned MS68's are another breed of cat entirely, but for the Mom & Pop bread and butter MS62 - 66 commemoratives how much further downhill do you think the prices will sink in the next 5 - 10 years?... 10%? 20%? 50%?... or do you think we're pretty close to a bottom and we'll see a distinct uptrend?

 

I'm gonna' guess and say that on the whole they'll be down another 20 - 25% over the next five years.

[physics-fan3.14]

If they go down that much over the next few years, maybe I'll be able to justify a really nice US Sesqui. half eventually.

[kryptonitecomics]

I didn't know folks still collected those

[jesbroken]

Take this as just an opinion, but I feel the toilet for MS65 down average mintage coins is a lot deeper than most realize. I also think that all of the hoopola regarding the economy improving and beyond the hump by this fall is also so much jabber. I know that in Sept/Oct of this year many millions of workers who are drawing unemployment will runout and I can't imagine this having a positive effect on the economy. After the first of 2010, the bottom of the toilet may be reached, but I do not think that it will be before that. None of this is seemingly affecting the higher end coins even though PCGS is finally red inking their higher end prices of all coins. I have not noticed high end coins becoming more affordable as the medium price coins have. If I had a large coin inventory I wished to sell, I would place it on ebay at a BIN price and let it run until it sells. I would abandon NR coin sales completely. Again, this is just my opinion.

Jim

[World Colonial]

I would be interested to know which ones have limited populations other than the Panama Pacific $50 gold. None do as far as I know.

 

All of the rest are common as far as I know except for the collector of conditional rarities and in many cases, the census populations are very high, like over 30% of the mintage which, even if no others existed, is an extremely high survival rate as would be expected. The mintages are supposedly "low" but this is only if someone is comparing these issues to a circulating coin. I understand that some coins from these issues did but the vast majority did not. So from the standpoint of scarcity, it would probably be more appropriate to compare them to proofs from the same general period and by that measure, they are common or extremely common.

 

I believe that many collectors consider these coins cheap just because they either see that prices have been flat to down for a while or they may compare them to the bubble prices of 1989.

 

Some others on this board more closely follow these issues (I do not at all), but I am not aware that there is a particularly large following of collectors who are trying to complete the series in its entirety. If this is correct, that would leave the general collector to buy individual coins that they like such as the Lafayette dollar, Isabella quarter or one of the vast number of halves. Judging from these boards, there are far more collectors of modern commemoratives than these issues.

 

I'm not sure what the best basis of comparison is, but I do not consider them "cheap" from a financial standpoint. They are affordable for many collectors that want to buy the odd coin here and there but completing a set is not particularly cheap and there are far more historically interesting and scarcer coins that can be bought with that money.

 

The combination that I describe (if accurate) hardly seems to be a launching pad for significant appreciation. The best description I can give them is as a forgotten series.

[MarkFeld]

I would be interested to know which ones have limited populations other than the Panama Pacific $50 gold. None do as far as I know.

 

All of the rest are common as far as I know except for the collector of conditional rarities and in many cases, the census populations are very high, like over 30% of the mintage which, even if no others existed, is an extremely high survival rate as would be expected. The mintages are supposedly "low" but this is only if someone is comparing these issues to a circulating coin. I understand that some coins from these issues did but the vast majority did not. So from the standpoint of scarcity, it would probably be more appropriate to compare them to proofs from the same general period and by that measure, they are common or extremely common.

 

I believe that many collectors consider these coins cheap just because they either see that prices have been flat to down for a while or they may compare them to the bubble prices of 1989.

 

Some others on this board more closely follow these issues (I do not at all), but I am not aware that there is a particularly large following of collectors who are trying to complete the series in its entirety. If this is correct, that would leave the general collector to buy individual coins that they like such as the Lafayette dollar, Isabella quarter or one of the vast number of halves. Judging from these boards, there are far more collectors of modern commemoratives than these issues.

 

I'm not sure what the best basis of comparison is, but I do not consider them "cheap" from a financial standpoint. They are affordable for many collectors that want to buy the odd coin here and there but completing a set is not particularly cheap and there are far more historically interesting and scarcer coins that can be bought with that money.

 

The combination that I describe (if accurate) hardly seems to be a launching pad for significant appreciation. The best description I can give them is as a forgotten series.

With respect to the silver commemoratives, many collectors opt to complete a 50 piece type set, as opposed to a complete, far more costly 144 piece set. The former is relatively affordable, usually doesn't require that the buyer settle for less than really nice examples, makes for a great set and is pursued by a good number of highly enthusiastic collectors.

 

I love to find attractively toned examples with personality at reasonable/fairly modest premiums over the price of ho-hum, white, generic looking ones.

 

Here are a few of the type I prefer to handle:

 

 

 

 

 

[mommam17]

Mark`s commems are really nice. I try to collect commem coins that look like them. Coins like them are not cheap.There are MANY commem coins available that do not look as nice as Mark`s coins, and they are found cheap. You get what you pay for.

[EZ_E]

I am working on a circulated classic commemorative type set and have 35 of the 50 coins including the Hawaiian. I probably have close to $6K in the set. So, it is not a cheap endeavor by any means.

[MarkFeld]

Victor, that sounds like a very cool set!

[SkyMan]

Some lovely coins, Mark!

 

Congrats on the circ set, Victor!

[World Colonial]

Mark`s commems are really nice. I try to collect commem coins that look like them. Coins like them are not cheap.There are MANY commem coins available that do not look as nice as Mark`s coins, and they are found cheap. You get what you pay for.

 

You collect them and Mark sells them, so both of you know more about them than I do. I only make an assessment on what I perceive to be the relative economic merits of these and most other coins based upon my perception of their scarcity, availability and what I know of the demand (which sometimes is not much).

 

I'm aware that some of these coins bring strong prices though I would have to do a search of the Heritage archives to know exactly how much. I'm also aware from other posts on this site that many, possibly most, of the coins in this series have been dipped or otherwise modified which is why original coins sell for a lot more.

 

However, since that is true of most coins to some extent, I consider large spreads based upon this type of eye appeal to be in the same category as conditional rarities. And I will never pay a disproportionate premium for that (subjective as it may be) for this type of coin when it is otherwise common which these coins undeniably are. I will pay some premium for extra nice coins but not an "excessive" one. I do not do it for the coins I collect, so this is not a bias specific to this series. Some might and that's up to them but I will not and from a strictly financial standpoint, I would not recommend that anyone else do so either because its a crapshoot on whether or not you will recover your money.

 

 

[World Colonial]

Well apparently, there are or may be more of these collectors than I think there are.

 

If this is so, then the best explanation of why the prices have stagnated and gone nowhere recently is simply that the buyers are not willing to pay more for them. Its a weak and unsatisfactory reason to the original question but possibly the best one available because this is also the best explanation for the relative prices of many coins.

 

I have said the same thing in prior posts when comparing the relative prices of equally scarce world coin to US coin prices and the same applies to different US coin series.

 

If this is a correct assessment, then I would consider a substantial price increase in most of these issues and the series as a whole to be unlikely in the near future because I believe the bull market in coins is either over or about over for the current cycle. There are few US coin series that come to mind (maybe US early copper is an exception?) where there has been a recent substantial increase in popularity that drove the prices substantially higher relative to other series. Many coins or series have increased or increased a lot in price, but the series was already popular and it has been more a function of a bull market in coins generally.

 

The prior bubble in these issues in the 1980's was driven by "investor" money, including those buying from promoters. But that was only possible because these coins are common enough for that to work on a reasonably large scale.

[BillJones]

If they go down that much over the next few years, maybe I'll be able to justify a really nice US Sesqui. half eventually.

 

You can get a nice (for the coin) Sesqui half dollar if you shop for very select MS-64 graded coins. You don't need to pay thousands of dollars for an MS-65 or 66. And from what I've seen most of those Sesquis are not worth the money. I paid just over $500 for this one when the MS-64 bid was around $425.

 

 

I disagree with the statement that ALL of the early commemorative half dollars are very common and easy to find, at least in attrative condition. I think the Missouri commemorative half dollar is a very hard coin to find in ATTRACTIVE MS-64 or better. This MS-64 is one of the better examples I have seen.

 

[mommam17]

The Sesqui and Missouri are 2 commems that I own in MS 64, along with Hawaiian, Monroe and Isabella Quarter. It`s not worth it to me to own them in 65. I don`t pick up that much in eye appeal to justify the more expensive MS 65 coin.

[RI AL]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how much a MS 65 Hawaiian has gone down?

 

RI AL

[RWB]

Former Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau had a set of silver commemoratives (1934-1939) displayed in his office. He bought nearly all the coins on the retail market through coun dealers.)

[BillJones]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how much a MS 65 Hawaiian has gone down?

 

RI AL

 

The current Graysheet bid on the Hawaiian in MS-65 is $4,750. I have not tracked the coin in that grade because my customers and I were always looking for nice MS-64 coins. I paid a little over $2,000 for the MS-64 in my collection about 10 years ago. Now the bid is $3,200. The way things are now with the old commemoratives, I imagine that you would have a hard time getting a dealer to pay bid for even a nice MS-64 Hawaiian.

[World Colonial]

The NGC census lists 683 in MS-64 and 344 in MS-65. $3200 bid for a coin with that availability is a lot of money.

[MarkFeld]

The NGC census lists 683 in MS-64 and 344 in MS-65. $3200 bid for a coin with that availability is a lot of money.

It's all relative, and not a lot of money if there are large numbers of collectors for them.

[RI AL]

Thanks, guys.

[dean1345]

I've been wanting to buy a nice gem Spanish Trail. They are not cheap.

[BillJones]

The NGC census lists 683 in MS-64 and 344 in MS-65. $3200 bid for a coin with that availability is a lot of money.

It's all relative, and not a lot of money if there are large numbers of collectors for them.

 

Demand is by far the more important aspect of the supply-demand function. Something can be as rare as a 1913 Liberty nickel (5 known) and not bring much of a price is no one or only a couple of collectors want it. A great many collectors would like the own a Hawaiian half dollar because it has long been viewed as the “key coin” to the series.

 

The Hawaiian commemorative half dollar has long been known to be a "scarce" coin. The initial issue price was the highest for any U.S. commemorative at the time of issue, 1928. Half of the total mintage of 10,000 pieces was offered in the U.S. and half was sent to the islands. The United Fruit Company owned a substantial number of them for decades. A limited number of these coins were ruined in the damp Hawaiian climate, and a few have been subject to cleaning and other numismatic abuses. The coin has sold at a premium over the issue price since almost the time they were issued.

 

It is a unique item because Hawaii was not a state at the time of issue and would not be a state for more than 30 years. Somehow, with any representation in Congress, Hawaii got a U.S. commemorative. For all these reason, the Hawaiian commemorative half dollar is not a “junk modern” coin.

 

[World Colonial]

I do not consider any of the classic commemoratives "junk" and yes, your statements about the demand accounting for the price is the correct (and obvious) explanation. But its still a relatively common coin just like many "key" date US coins, some of which sell for a lot more.

 

I also have no problem with someone paying current prices for it. But with that amount of supply, I would not expect any significant appreciation either.

 

 

[EZ_E]

I'm quite proud of my Hawaiian.

 

PCGS AU53

[MJ]

I actually hope commem prices stay down as I try to finish my set over the next few years. At that point prices may feel free to go up expotentially. Prices of tough high grade commem's with color still command premiums as there are still strong hands out there.....One of my fav's in my set below...........MJ

 

 

[TomB]

Welcome to the boards, MJ, and let me add that you have a gorgeous Hudson! (thumbs u

[lehigh96]

Welcome to the boards, MJ, and let me add that you have a gorgeous Hudson! (thumbs u

 

I second that all the way around. Bravo and welcome!

[MJ]

Thanks Tom.....I'm a big fan of yours on "both boards" and always enjoy your show reports. I've just never been much of a poster. Monsterman (Gregg Bingham) and Larry Shepherd have me hooked on commem's. Great teachers.....The Hudson I stumbled on my own : )

 

MJ

[MJ]

and Lehigh your battle of the pedigree's is a classic......I often look at it so your view count just like population reports are inflated : ) MJ

[michael]

SEXY CIRC. SET VICTOR

 

it think the bottom has been hit for pcgs ms 65-67 super nice for the grade with great eye appeal early commems

 

 

there is so much over hang in the market with all the garbage out there in ngc/pcgs holders so it holds down all the nice coins out there

 

and add to the fact that the populations at ngc/pcgs have exploded on these coins in the last decade and with many series the majority have never even been certified

 

well you get the picture

 

 

i see another promotion getting underway in the next 18 months or so AND this will really drive up the prices then it is time to get OUT

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NOW don't get me started with the certified early gold commems as that is another entirely different racket