‹(•¿•)› Moderns are dead! ‹(•¿•)›

[EZ_E]

I had two NGC PR69 UC silver proofs sets for sale on e-bay , a 1999 and 2000 set together. The 1999 set alone sells for at least $300 raw. A bidder had a bid of $255. Ain't no way I was going to give the sets away so I had my daughter place a $300 bid for the two set. She won it for $295. Everyone wants something for nothing! It's like this e-bay coin dealer who wanted to purchase my 1861/0 PCGS 64 half dime for nothing. I had it opening at $950 (PCGS lists it at $1850). He called me (after asking for my phone #) and offered $900. I refused. He got mad, said he'd have won it for $950 but he was eating dinner. I offered it to him for $1000 and he just kept mumbling, "That's not right, that's not right." I should have asked him what he was planning on listing it for. Keep in mind that this really is a pretty coin. Then I checked out his coins for sale and saw this one for sale on his site. It is an 1861/0 PCGS MS61 for $899. It is fugly, hairlined, spotted and cleaned. Yuk!

 

This deserves a forehead slap or two!

[physics-fan3.14]

I say threaten to bust her knee caps. This carries the additional benefit that she won't be running around with all the guys that I'm sure are chasing her.

[Coindude]

How bout giving her a hug, as a thank you gift for keeping you from giving the coins away, and then give her the coins as a gift and then giving her glowing feedback! Just a thought!

[Coindude]

Bonehead!

[x2rider]

Well If it's ebay why don't you get her, to give you the money and then not give her the coins . . Or even better she could pay , you could send and then start a dispute about the quality . Then we could all sit on the sidelines and make comments .

 

i don't think I would give her bad feed back though . maybe just a neutral :-)

[EZ_E]

You know, if I busted her knee caps then it would make it easy for studs like you to catch her.......so, we'll just give her glowing feedback.

[physics-fan3.14]

You know, if I busted her knee caps then it would make it easy for studs like you to catch her.......so, we'll just give her glowing feedback.

 

Drats. You've seen through my plan and foiled it!

[World Colonial]

I cannot say what any of the coins you placed for sale are worth now, but what I can tell you and everyone else is that if the statements I have made in my prior posts turn out to be correct, then these and most other coins will be selling for LESS, many for a LOT LESS than the prices they fetch today.

 

That has already started happening to some of the coins I own which I procrastinated in selling earlier last year. I sold some of them but not as many as I should have.

 

I have been saying for quite a while that US moderns will be the coins that will lose the most value in this bear market and I am sticking by it. With unemployment rising sharply (at last) combined with the crash in financial assets and the real estate debacle, there are going to be many who are going to be forced to sell all kinds of non-traditional non-investment assets and I expect that for more than a few, coins will be one of them. Since I also believe that US moderns are primarily owned by "weak hands", that is why I expect them to fall the most given that a large quantity of forced selling will be combined with their ready (a gross understatement) availability.

[cladking]

 

I have been saying for quite a while that US moderns will be the coins that will lose the most value in this bear market and I am sticking by it. With unemployment rising sharply (at last) combined with the crash in financial assets and the real estate debacle, there are going to be many who are going to be forced to sell all kinds of non-traditional non-investment assets and I expect that for more than a few, coins will be one of them. Since I also believe that US moderns are primarily owned by "weak hands", that is why I expect them to fall the most given that a large quantity of forced selling will be combined with their ready (a gross understatement) availability.

 

This isn't what happened in the last two downturns but this time it really could be different.

[chinook]

Isnt that shill bidding?

 

Your "classic" coins did quite well though.

[EZ_E]

Isnt that shill bidding?

 

Your "classic" coins did quite well though.

 

True and no apologies!

 

CYOA!

 

If they brought the same as a raw set, I'd have accepted it but to let two graded sets go for less than the price of a raw 1999 set is unacceptable to me.

 

Maybe someday I'll have to let them go but it certainly isn't necessary at the moment.

 

Yeah, the classics did pretty good. Certainly not strong money, though. I couldn't believe that the FR02 1806 quarter only sold for what I paid for the coin raw! That was a shocker! If I didn't have an upgrade on two of the higher dollared coins then I would have lost money on them. They went for weak prices considering the grade and eye-appeal of the coins. The commems sold for about what I paid for them. They were dupes as I was tweaking my set. I had given $175 for the 1873 quarter and it only sold for $80. That was harsh but I didn't want it since it didn't grade. No surprise, though. Still, all of the other "arrows" coins that I bought raw off of ebay graded. Not a bad percentage considering the poor coins on ebay.

[World Colonial]

 

I have been saying for quite a while that US moderns will be the coins that will lose the most value in this bear market and I am sticking by it. With unemployment rising sharply (at last) combined with the crash in financial assets and the real estate debacle, there are going to be many who are going to be forced to sell all kinds of non-traditional non-investment assets and I expect that for more than a few, coins will be one of them. Since I also believe that US moderns are primarily owned by "weak hands", that is why I expect them to fall the most given that a large quantity of forced selling will be combined with their ready (a gross understatement) availability.

 

This isn't what happened in the last two downturns but this time it really could be different.

 

You would know better than me and as far as I know, you are correct. To clarify my last post, the coins I have been making these comments on are conditional rarities but I also think this will happen to the later proof sets and commemoratives this time. The reason for this is that their increased popularity in this cycle has caused them to go above the issue price in many instances (sometimes well above it) which for the current owners will likely work against them at today's prices. I expect many of these coins to sell for less than issue price by the time the bear market is over; some of them for much less.

 

In the prior recent down cycles, most or all of the proof sets and commemoratives were already in the dumps so presumably there was little pent up demand to sell them Another reason is that this contraction is going to be worse than any recent one (and in many respects it already is even though it has barely started). Plus there is the added risk of deflation.

 

If this seems far fetched, it is only necessary to look at the issue prices of many of the earlier (post 1968) proof set prices and their issue price. I do not know what they sell for now but I believe that most of them sell for either discounts or nominal premiums and this is in current dollars. Adjusted for inflation, they have fallen substantially in value since issuance.

[Revenant]

Well, there have been a couple of small sets that I've been thinking about building. It would seem that the prices of these have dropped a fair bit and I'm going to try to take advantage and build those sets.

[Houston Investor]

Welcome to coin selling - yes a lot of them don't want to pay the money. Ebay Sellers do not have the ability to bid on their own material like Teletrade Sellers (at least withing the rules).

 

I recently sold two gold mod commems at market retail realizing 50% margin over cost. It simply takes time and patience to get my price sometimes. With gold going up it may be in ones best interest to hold on to this stuff.

 

My mods are not in weak hands. I find having a shop is the best operating model for me after finally jumping into one. Much of the time in the business you make your money buying vs selling.

 

In operating a coin busines you need a significant portion of your capital in cash so you can take advantage of walkup deals you can buy cheap and then flip plus not become so desperate for cash your forced to liquidate inventory at fire sale prices. Its so much easier to buy coins than sell them.

 

I usually offer no more than 97% of melt on modern bullion related items as the refiner only pays 98%.

[World Colonial]

When I made the comment "weak hands', I did not mean that every owner was a "weak hand" only that many of them are and that there will be enough of them to substantially increase the supply and reduce prices significantly from distressed selling since these coins are so incredibly common.

 

Now whether this comment is true or not is a matter of conjecture and probably you would be in a better position to know than me. My opinion is based upon the speculation that many non-collectors and casual collectors buy both modern proof sets and commemoratives and that many of them will either have to or will choose to sell them.

 

In the example that you gave, I consider that a special situation because as a gold coin, it will have the bullion price to support it and while I am neutral to negative on bullion now (more bullish on gold than silver), I am definitely long term bullish on it later.

 

However, I do not consider that applicable to other similar issues that are silver or clad. There are too many of them and the premiums over bullion leave substantial downside from current prices. And if I were a buyer of these issues, I would sell them now (all of them) and would be in no rush to buy them back.

 

Your statements on having adequate cash are spot on and this one of the reasons why I expect the forced selling I mentioned to occur and I think it will occur by both collectors and dealers though presumably less proportionately on the latter.