Population Reports

[MikeKing]

Buying a coin with intrinsic value depends on so many things, and the numbers of coins extant, to me, is one of the most important. Why? Because if there are only 23 extant, I'd be terribly pleased if it was originally toned, never wiped and grade almost irrelevant, but XF to AU would be perfectly pleasing to me, And if the price is good, you KNOW you're getting a real bargain, real value and all that steak and not the sizzle (I'm taking this term from Scot Travers) that an MS 64 whatever would have with a pop of >500 (NGC/PCGS combined), which though it looks pretty and the price tag may be the same or even a little or a lot more than your really SCARCE bargain, is no where as 'rare' as your low pop, even if lower grade, naturally toned, unwiped 'rare find'. Something you can really treasure in your collection.

 

Now how do you determine the population?

I'll never go to a coin show again without the NGC and PCGS pops printed out and in hand for the coins I like.

Can you rely on them? Actually yes and no. Yes, in that it's the best way to actually see evidence given as numbers by two major grading companies.

 

Now we all know those numbers are skewed by resubmissions, the numbers of which can be unbelievably high, I'm sure, when the next grade up jumps five fold. But at least you have a number, even though you know it's not absolute. It's probably even a bad approximation, but at least it gives you an idea about the SURVIVING population, because Mintage numbers, while also helpful, mean nothing when 90% of the coins were melted down for that year, rendering any comparison with mintage figure for a year in which most of the coins survived, irrelevant.

 

Then, of course, are the Heritage Archives. Not the be all and the end all of total coins autioned off, but large enough an auction house and around long enough that you will get a very good idea about HOW MUCH of something is really out there. So when you look up the coin your interested in and you see that only 10 have been auctioned off in ANY GRADE over the past 10 years, as compared to 50 or so being auctioned off in ANY GRADE just in the past year...tells you something about the scarcity (or lack of) of the coin your interested in.

 

Of course, when you're at a show, and you find THAT special coin, you really have to buy it immediately, lest it dissapears into someone elses hands, so even though there might be an Internet Cafe in the lobby, you may not have the time to go see what the Heritage Archives shows. Maybe this is where previous study would be helpful...to really KNOW your coins, and your want list. But then, if that want list is too large, hell if you're going to know the number of coins auctioned for each and every one.

 

So to round this brainstormin of mine off, this is what I've come up with.

 

It's easy enough to print out the NGC/PCGS pops for coins your interested in (e.g. all $2.5 Gold) and keep it in your pocket, so when you see a piece that is naturally toned and you know THAT in and of itself is a rarity, and you also see a really gorgeous higher grade flashy piece next to it, you can just look to see that the flashy piece has an NGC/PCGS pop combined of 1,000 (in all grades) and that original beauty in XF has a pop of 100 (NGC/PCGS combined) (in all grades) it makes it a lot easier to decide which one to purchase.

 

Sorry for any grammatical/spelling mistakes as I'm hitting the send button lest this brain storming of mine gets deleted before I send it!

[MBA101]

My thoughts exactly.

[Zoins]

Buying a coin with intrinsic value depends on so many things

Intrinsic value depends on one thing for me, bullion value. Coin collecting and coin collectors could disappear and the coin would still have intrinsic value if it was defined by bullion value, which seems to be a common definition.

 

Many other characteristics often associated with coins are tied to collectibility and desirability from coin collectors so I don't consider them intrinsic. But it is good to have a idea for the probable minimum collector premium of a coin.

 

I think it's better to say something like "buying a coin with collector premium depends on so many things".

[MikeKing]

I understand, and in many ways agree with what you are saying, but collector premium can be awfully high with coins that are nothing but 'sizzle' and according to the definition I presented, lack in intrinsic value.

[Zoins]

How about "intrinsic numismatic value"?

[MikeKing]

sounds good to me...maybe we should write a book

[Zoins]

I actually think there might be some potential for a book that tracks coin values by general coin classifications over coin collecting booms and busts to see which ones do well. Rare coins can be compared to common coins in boom and bust times. If intrinsic numismatic value could be demonstrated to hold up through busts via historical prices for coin categories, it could make for interesting reading.

[michael]

so the ultimate is a coin with a low pop for a long time showing that there are so few out there that NO new ones are submitted or even resubmitted and also not many to none graded higher

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rexcat]

Yes this would be correct Michael, but there is the last piece to the ultimate coin puzzle;

“a coin with a low pop for a long time showing that there are so few out there that new ones are submitted or even resubmitted and also not many to none graded higher” a fact that no one is aware of … (thumbs u

 

[BillJones]

The population reports have so many issues (re-submitted coins, over graded coins, under graded coins, coins in the hands of collectors who don't submit coins to the TPGs (prime example early copper collectors) that I don't place near the stock in them that you do, Mike. In addition keeping up with this stuff via buying the population report books can run into some serious money. And aside from price guides, I can think of no other numismatic publication that has a shorter useful shelf life. A year old population report is about useful, or perhaps less useful, than a year old issue of "Coin World." At least the “Coin World” might have a good article in it about history or a new die variety. Population reports are just lists of grading opinions with no pictures or descriptions to back them up.

 

There is no such thing as precision when it comes knowing how many coins exist in what grades for 99% of the U.S. coin issues. It is at best an estimate. If you want to learn the rarity of early coins, the best way to buy the latest editions of the die variety books and perhaps join EAC, the Jon Reich Society or some other collector organization. There you will get information from other collectors who are more interested in gathering better data. Although politics can get involved when collectors are grading coins, by in large I’d place more stock in their opinions than I would the raw, largely unreviewable data that you get from population reports.

 

[pendragon1998]

Another issue I've had with population reports has been that they don't always update them frequently. The pop report on my favorite series - UK silver britannias - doesn't appear to have been updated in a good 6 months or more. Coins which I know for a fact exist in NGC slabs aren't listed at all in the ngc pop report.

[Zoins]

Another issue I've had with population reports has been that they don't always update them frequently. The pop report on my favorite series - UK silver britannias - doesn't appear to have been updated in a good 6 months or more. Coins which I know for a fact exist in NGC slabs aren't listed at all in the ngc pop report.

I wonder how much manual effort is required to update the pop reports. Perhaps it's a time consuming process.

[pendragon1998]

According to someone with NGC, they update the populations manually. She said, "The World Census is being updated on a country-by-country basis, in the order of descending importance. This is a very slow process that will take several years, but work is always ongoing."

 

This makes little sense to me, as I have added coins to my signature set which didn't show up in the census, but the relevant data showed up linked to the insert number. The registry and the population report must not be linked.

[Zoins]

According to someone with NGC, they update the populations manually. She said, "The World Census is being updated on a country-by-country basis, in the order of descending importance. This is a very slow process that will take several years, but work is always ongoing."

 

This makes little sense to me, as I have added coins to my signature set which didn't show up in the census, but the relevant data showed up linked to the insert number. The registry and the population report must not be linked.

Yeah, I kind of thought something like that was happening. They could probably hire a programmer to dramagically streamline the process.

[Architecht]

According to someone with NGC, they update the populations manually. She said, "The World Census is being updated on a country-by-country basis, in the order of descending importance. This is a very slow process that will take several years, but work is always ongoing."

 

This makes little sense to me, as I have added coins to my signature set which didn't show up in the census, but the relevant data showed up linked to the insert number. The registry and the population report must not be linked.

Yeah, I kind of thought something like that was happening. They could probably hire a programmer to dramagically streamline the process.

 

It's a data issue rather than a programmatic issue. It's a matter of identifying and numbering / cataloging the coin types. More of a numismatic and data challenge than an interface challenge.

[pendragon1998]

(shameless plug) Well, how about just updating the silver britannia entries? (/shameless plug)

 

[Zoins]

According to someone with NGC, they update the populations manually. She said, "The World Census is being updated on a country-by-country basis, in the order of descending importance. This is a very slow process that will take several years, but work is always ongoing."

 

This makes little sense to me, as I have added coins to my signature set which didn't show up in the census, but the relevant data showed up linked to the insert number. The registry and the population report must not be linked.

Yeah, I kind of thought something like that was happening. They could probably hire a programmer to dramagically streamline the process.

It's a data issue rather than a programmatic issue. It's a matter of identifying and numbering / cataloging the coin types. More of a numismatic and data challenge than an interface challenge.

Good to know Architecht.

 

Seems like there should be a way to streamline it for ultramodern bullion like the Britannias which are pretty well known.