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Thane1

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Journal Entries posted by Thane1

  1. Thane1
    The more things stay the same, the more things change.
    Presidential elections always felt huge to me. Four years. That's a long time. A lot can happen in four years.
    This last election felt like 2008 was yesterday. So this journal is as much about pinching myself as about collecting.
    INTERNATIONAL: Mubarak and Qadaffi fell. Bin Laben's dead. Japan, for a year or so, got 0% of its energy from nuclear. The Euro is dead, the players are just buying time on how to kill it. 25% unemployment in some Euro countries.
    NATIONAL: BP oil spill. Fracking. Cars for clunkers. Citizens United and these ridiculous elections. Nobody cares about anything except the economy.
    TRENDS: Global warming and the accompanying extremes are real. Half the US had a hard, snowy 2010 winter; most the US had NO winter in 2011. Freight has traversed the Arctic ocean. The North Pole will be open water in less than a generation. The Oglala Aquifer will fail in less than a generation beneath the high plains, causing millions of acres of cropland to change to rangeland or other uses. The range of folks who call themselves MIDDLE CLASS now stretches from $400k salaries to folks starving on part-time jobs. The US is now a net-exporter of oil, thanks to the global economic slump. Domestic oil drilling, despite the BP oil spill, increased under Obama.
    TECH: Twitter. Apple, Facebook and the NSA alike will be able to monitor 95% of most folks' whereabouts in the next five years, and nobody cares.
    SOCIETY: Most folks in an airport terminal glue their eyes to their phones or IPad-like devices. Four years ago, that was obsession. Ten years ago, that was psychosis.
    PERSONAL: One daughter in 2008, three daughters in 2012. Three moves in the interim, but living at the same address now as in 2008. Slab and registry collecting discovered in 2009. Currently unwinding (selling) the consequences, including a couple PCGS bulk orders (at the time, 5 dates, 100 coins).
    WHITHER COLLECTING: While the psychotic masses carry some bar code implant in their head which doubles as a credit card and telephone, the rest of us while fall back to cash. Congress, in a perpetual state of suckage, will continue to fund unneeded jobs by never abolishing the penny and allowing us collectors to keep on collecting. Some sanity will return to the marketplace. 5-oz. silver hockey pucks will be sold for what they are, and no more. Rarities won't be recognized in the marketplace right away, but over time (like - a century?), they'll be seen. Compared to the SMS years of 1965-1967, hardly anyone is collecting rolls or other quantities of biz strikes from 2005-2010. Maybe not today, but in a hundred years, biz strikes gems from the Satin Years will be rare and highly desired.
    SUMMARY: Everything changed in four years, but we are all so obsessed with the economy, that nobody saw it. To repair our elections, pass state constitutional amendments for open primaries. To collect something widely available but soon lost in the bag marks of counting machines, grab your satin-era biz strikes! I am sufficiently PINCHED - four BIG YEARS have passed.
    PHOTO: the 10c 2009-D MS67FT from my registry- the only satin year biz strike anyone's bothered collecting yet ...

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  2. Thane1
    During my lunch break today, I wandered into the downtown branch of the public library, where a display about John Adams' book collection was housed.
    Hang with me, this is light on numismatism and heavier on why Dead White Men are on our coins.
    For our everyday money, mythologies abound. Let's ask our MOTS ("man on the street") who fails the Find-Your-Hometown-on-a-Map Test about the following people:
    ABRAHAM LINCOLN (1c, $5): Civil War, freed the slaves
    THOMAS JEFFERSON (5c, $2): ... uh, Founding Father? states rights? Louisiana Purchase?
    F.D.R. (10c): New Deal, World War II
    GEORGE WASHINGTON (25c, $1): won the Revolution, 1st president, crossed the Delaware, chopped down a cherry tree
    J.F.K. (50c): Cuban missile crisis
    ALEXANDER HAMILTON ($10): uh, Founding Father? founded the Treasury?
    ANDREW JACKSON ($20): some president before the Civil War? fought Indians or Mexico or something?
    ...
    OK, that exercise is over. Now, every single president (SOME of them sucked and don't deserve to be on a coin, right?) on a dollar coin (NEVER spent, only collected, so why not waste these useless presidents on useless coins and look good doing it [pat on back, Congress!!]) ... hmm ...
    I grew up in Massachusetts, where we studied the American Revolution like it was Charles de Gaulle in modern French lycees. And the BOSTON MASSACRE was something like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand - something you memorized as a cause of a war.
    What I don't remember learning was WHO DEFENDED the British soldiers at their trial. Care to guess?
    JOHN ADAMS! That's right, one of those Dead White Men ... our second president.
    What's great about history is how it repeats itself. Compare the quartering of British troops in Boston in 1770 with the quartering of American troops in Baghdad in 2005, and things sound eerily similar. From a UMKC faculty project (http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/bostonmassacre/keyfigures.html) (skip to ALL CAPS if you want to spare yourself the historical quote) -
     
    More detailed records exist for the Soldiers' trial, which commenced on December 3. Adams presented evidence that blame for the tragedy lay both with the "mob" that gathered that March night and with England's highly unpopular policy of quartering troops in a city. Adams told the jury: "Soldiers quartered in a populous town will always occasion two mobs where they prevent one." He argued that the soldier who fired first acted only as one might expect anyone to act in such confused and potentially life-threatening conditions. "Do you expect that he should act like a stoic philosopher, lost in apathy?", Adams asked the jury. "Facts are stubborn things," he concluded, "and whatever may be our inclinations, or the dictums of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
     
    SO I HAVE A NEWFOUND APPRECIATION FOR COLLECTING these over-produced and under-circulated dollar coins. John Adams knew that taking on this case would RUIN HIS LAW PRACTICE and possibly ENDANGER HIS FAMILY'S LIVES, but he was a man of principle who believed in a fair search for the murky truth - AND NOT for the black-and-white fables spread by the flames of public passions.

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  3. Thane1
    Live auction of a good chunk of my collection tonight (Friday)
    Collecting coins is easy. Collecting coins on a budget is hard. Selling coins is easy. Selling coins for what they're worth is hard!
    This Friday night (the 20th) is the night much of my collection goes up for live auction. You can watch it here: http://www.proxibid.com/asp/Catalog.asp?aid=54963 or you can also find it through RJ's Auction Service in Scranton, KS.
    Much of my slab collection will get sold cheaply, if my past buying experience holds here. Browse the auction for mixed date multi-slab lots of moderns, and you'll find great bargains. I wouldn't be surprised if the lot with the two PCGS 1960 5c MS65's goes for $4/coin, or if the eight-coin lot including the NGC 1965 5c MS66 goes for $40 total. OUCH!
    Months and years of good buys, great buys, a few impulse buys, a few decent trades, LOTS of roll searching, and improving success at slabbing raw coins ... well, that all sounds good and like my collection improved, BUT ...
    Let's just say no matter how great a deal you bought something for, it's not a great deal until you sell it. And you're not going to sell it if it's in a pile of boxes and half-finished coin projects in an area of your house you're trying to keep your messes out of the rest of your family's hair!
    (I always admire collectors like W.K.F. who post photos of their pristine dining tables with an organized collecting project complete or ongoing in an easily seen start-middle-end fashion.)
    Roll searching is true treasure hunting, but it's also death by a thousand messes in the household, and it's death by a thousand nickels in trying to resell great UNC raw stock at UNC prices. Ain't gonna happen, I don't have thirty years and 5000 s.f. to leave the stuff laying around.
    What's the answer? Sell!
    If I had sold all the slabs singly on EBay no reserve, I might've done better than this auction will go with multi-lots. The 2009-D BU dime rolls, lost in a multi-date lot, will go close to face, when the better choice/gem examples could sell for $5 each coin raw.
    At least there's an unusual $100 of mine on the block, too.
    Have fun watching the auction results, and if you accumulate your collection like I have mine, keep in mind how you plan on organizing and selling.

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  4. Thane1

    sell Sell SELL !!!

    By Thane1,

    Great buying AND selling opportunities as lots of collectors are out, but others want in.
    January provided a good tail wind for selling numismatics. The markets continued their recovery, holiday spirits blew into the new year, metals hovered near highs, US economic statistics continued to improve while global uncertainties persisted ... a perfect win/win for metals and willing US buyers ...
    Well, I am out. I have gone more than half cash (or short ETF) in my combined retirement accounts. I am trying to unload a lot of my coin collection, starting with metals. Some of my reasons are personal, but economy and market timing are my other reasons.
    I have noticed a trend reversal in registry coin prices. Top pops are no longer selling. (Not that they were in the first place ...) But the -undermarket- of -top pop minus one- coins has seen a slight warming.
    I have given up on following traditional economic indicators, others can do that far better than I can. But the coin market seems to show that the poor remain poor, the unemployed remain unemployed, the middle and upper-middle class are gaining optimism and doing ok, and the wealthy are taking their money off of the table.
    Perhaps the coin markets I follow are biased or skewed some way ... I could imagine that the modern MS markets (my collection's focus) could be held by a few buyers who have overextended their resources Perhaps more classic coinage prices are holding up better at the high end
    I stand by my predictions from my journal entry last month. Markets will tank very soon. QE3 will give an artificial boost to US markets. Pent-up auto demand will help platinum cross gold again. The fantasies over precious metals serving as safe haven in time of crisis will begin to blow away. Obama will win the popular vote by plurality, but he will fail to win a majority of electoral votes. Congress will elect the next president, and it will be neither Obama nor the ticket (Romney). Moderate in Congress will compromise with the to select a president other than Romney. The Tea Party and the social conservatives will officially bail from the .
    Not that I need to preach to the choir here, but here is some more evidence that things are not going as well as we are all being told:
    http://news.yahoo.com/unemployment-rate-quietly-hits-nine-percent-003900024.html
    Watch the Money Marketplace on the message boards. A **LOT** of longtime and respected and high-end collectors are getting out. Times are changing. But if you want in and have the cash, you are not alone and supply is sufficient!
  5. Thane1
    Where bullion value and collector value might head in the next 12 months - and how that affects my collection
    What scares us all, TODAY, about our jobs, our savings, and who might buy our collections when we need to sell?
    (1) Europe, 2011.
    (2) Japan, 1989.
    (3) USA, 2008.
    (4) China, 2011.
    HYPERINFLATION? Market participation is quite weak while everyone sits on their fears of what the future brings. The gold bugs and Ron Paul voters out there remind us that many believe in imminent hyper-inflation.
    DISINFLATION? Any of us trying to sell a house (myself included!) are reminded of the 1989 Japan real estate bust - hangovers from the 2008 credit crash.
    MERCANTILISM? Popular fear AND market mover positions increasingly point towards a fractured Euro by year-end. Economies in Europe, and worldwide, may decouple. Greece is screwed, with no export economy and 1/3 of oil imports from Iran.
    CHINA BUST? Pundits talk of a China real estate crash. Prices have already plummeted, but popular fear abounds. Precious metals and oil may decouple if everyone believes in a Chinese recession and a Straits of Hormuz problem.
    WHERE I THINK THE USA WILL BE: Quality of living and employment indices in Japan are terrific. Everyone complains about how the Nikkei is still less than 1/2 its 1989 high. Everyone complains about Japan's sovereign debt to GDP ratio. But the banks are NOT complaining about holding all those 25-basis-point bonds ... they'd rather that than Japanese default, and the banks will similarly hold US paper well past 200% ddebt:GDP ratios into the next several decades. Like Cheney comically said, DEFICITS DON'T MATTER, and the banks will get rich off of every gold bug who believes otherwise.
    MY 2012 YEAR-END PREDICTIONS: Gold $1225. Silver $18. Platinum $2000. Huntsman elected president by the House of Representatives in a bipartisan compromise after the party is split in a 4-way presidential contest (electoral votes: Obama 250, Romney 200, religious conservative 70, fiscal conservative/social na 15). Dollar stronger than other currencies, US and slect emerging markets stuck in neutral while rest of world faces recession or depression. The rich get richer: annual sales of Bentleys have quadrupled since 2000. Many of the US middle class get raises or new jobs. The underclass gets screwed and forgotten. US oil exports continue to exceed imports. Bipartisan agreement on the next president raises hope for a less brittle economy with less stimulus.
    MY COIN COLLECTION: Sell all bullion except platinum. Sell all numismatic value coins except high-end. Focus on high-value classics and hyper-top-pop moderns. Hold ignored top-pops, such as 2005-2010 satins and biz strikes. This is a rare time when, despite US markets' health, cash will still be king.
    PICTURED: 2010-D MS68FT NGC 10c from my registry. Pop 2/0 (I'm holding both until other believers arise!). Top PCGS pop is MS67FB.

  6. Thane1

    Arab Spring

    By Thane1,

    In this European Winter, let's not forget the green shoots of democracy on Africa's North Coast.
    Maybe some Arab world dictatorships had reached tipping points. Maybe regime change was imminent. Or maybe it really takes one act of courage by one person.
    We Westerners are scared of sovereign debt defaults, unemployment, double-dip recessions ... When we're out of work, we skip a gas payment, run up credit cards, and get fat on cheap, low-nutrition, high-calorie food.
    But the people of North Africa and the Arabian peninsula have entirely different fears. When a Tunisian or Gazan or Yemeni is out of work, he feeds his children half a meal and starves himself. He moves into a one-room house with ten other people.
    Most of us would die for our children. But would we die for our beliefs? for our countrymen?
    The suicidal immolation of one fruit vendor in Tunisia, as political protest, began this year of revolt in North Africa.

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  7. Thane1
    A proposal for recognizing rarity, cost, demand, etc., across wildly different collecting spectrums -
    (This is in reply to Captain Clipon's post, but I thought a new registry proposal merited its own journal entry. Please read his message board thread, found at the end of this journal.)
    We modern MS collectors, we know we're niche collectors, in a minority at that. It's comparably cheap to buy a top-pop for us (say, $2000 on the open market, $1000 in live auction, or $400 on EBay $.01 starting bid), but it's near impossible to assemble a collection, because stuff is either not available, or it takes legwork and luck (roll- and mint set-searching!) to find the raw stuff.
    I propose a 3-tier points system:
    A. Points for all classic coinage.
    B. Points for all modern proof and commemorative coinage (including all bullion).
    C. Points for all modern business strikes.
    These 3 sets of points could be tracked separately, like baseball statistics, and combined in various ways to portray a collection's cost, rarity, completeness (like type sets), etc.
    I think all coins would benefit from this system. The only type to fall through the cracks, I see, would be the 2005-2010 SMS. They're readily available, like proofs, but expensive and rarely sold, like MS; and the top-pop's are deceptively less available than one might think.
    Posting this as a journal entry, too, instead of response to board thread here:
    http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=4946911#Post4946911
  8. Thane1
    Maybe it's not obvious, since the markets are up about double since the March 2009 bottom, but for most collectibles markets, we're in a SERIOUS bear market.
    Amidst all the hoopla and euphoria of rising gold and especially silver prices ... amidst the record sale prices for super-rare coins ...
    The REST of the collectible market is in a SERIOUS FUNK. Ask anyone trying to unload an MS67 or MS68 modern penny ... or a PF70UC any denomination ... there is NO DEMAND. The price floor is not being set by buyers, but rathers by sellers.
    Spend a few months watching EBay auctions. A few Buy-It-Now sales might go through for half of Numismedia value for non-silver modern top pops. Any seller brave enough to run a no-reserve low opening bid auction will probably sell for 25% or less of Numismedia.
    And that's just for slabs. Notice how Wheat cents are still only 4x face. Try hard and you can probably have some for 3x face - or less.
    Or watch the following EBay auction for $200 face in no-date Buffalo nickels. Starting price $1000 (5x face). Just a few years ago, even junk buffalos were going for 50c each.
    http://cgi.ebay.com/Buffalo-Nickel-Lot-4000-Sealed-Bag-/130524846030?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item1e63e317ce
    We're in uncharted economic territory here. (1) Impending displacement of the USD as a global reserve currency, much like the British pound a century ago. (2) Forget the global economic malaise ... how about global sovereign debts in all but a few countries running unsustainably? (3) Unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) = printing money out of thin air to stimulate lending and consumption. (4) Banana-republic-like propping of elephant industries (like cars) in many countries (not just the US), so that most of the industrialized world may go the way of Chavez's Venezuela ... eventually the state employs everyone, innovation stops, and folks collect worthless paychecks for worthless work. Oh, don't forget the top 1% keep all the wealth, so with careful media and ballot box control, we all convince ourselves that the world's OK and the "system" works!
    Enough Tea Party ranting already. One of my favorite market commentaries mentioned collectibles, and I figured other collectors would appreciate the link. The final question: Is non-precious metal coin collecting dead? Or can we treat this collectible ("discretionary spending") bear market as any bear market, and use the market low as a buying opportunity? ... How you answer that question probably depends on your views of the gold standard, currency armageddon, hyperinflation, etc.
    Commentary link follows.
    [The following link is to their monthly update - if you're reading this journal after June 2011, you'll need to browse their website to find a different URL for their June 2011 commentary.]
    http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
    THEIR QUOTE:
    The picture by now should indeed be crystal clear. The ONLY category of retail that has been growing its sales as a percentage of total retail sales over both of the QE periods has been gasoline, again leaving the non-store retailing trends aside. And this is Mr. Bernanke's wealth effect? To be honest it has indeed worked wonders for wealth generation - the wealth of crude oil producers, that is. The collective and very simple message is that there has been no wealth effect at all if one defines that as an increase in discretionary consumption. The Fed has incited commodity and equity speculation in its QE heroics, with the results being the rising cost of gasoline has acted to "displace" alternative forms of discretionary retail spending. Too bad the mainstream media simply seems not to have had the time over the last few years to dig beneath the pretty retail sales headlines, no?

  9. Thane1
    I was on the waiting list for the April 28 Hot Springs hockey puck public sale - but I just got my notice of shipment today!
    In the words of W.K.F., "Greetings Collectors!"
    Before I get to the puck, I'm on business in Denver. I had no idea the U.S. Mint tours are like getting into the White House - the guard turned me away at the wrought iron fence, since I didn't have a reservation.
    Whenever I travel, I try to pick up a box of coins to cherrypick. So I got a box of dimes today. Four silvers! Still no OBW's. I didn't bring my loupe, I'm just carting the maybes back home in a CoinTube. Looks like an AU like BU 1967 FT, great luster with either bag marks or high point scratches, hmm ...
    As for the 5 oz. 2010 Hot Springs pucks, after I got that riot-inciting email from a major internet dealer (I've bought from them on EBay, but they do more business off-Bay), where they werre offering $360 for anyone willing to sell, I figured I better jump in line.
    Maybe the Mint, with that silver crash last week (>20% loss = "crash" you technicalists BTW), figured they should just fill all the back orders at a profit. I dunno how fast they can make them, or if they made them and were holding stock in case bullion value exceeded retail.
    Any other "puck stories"?
    The Denver Mint gift shop, by the way, was selling BU PCGS (ungraded) puck slabs - no price sticker. I didn't ask.
  10. Thane1

    Bulk TPG Submissions

    By Thane1,

    Sink or swim, my ultramodern collection is moving from rolls and bags of raw to boxes and boxes of slabs.
    A while back, I posted a comparison of NGC and PCGS grading, and I noted that PCGS offers bulk grading (then $10/coin, now $12, but with no charge for below minimum grade).
    Well, I submitted to somebody other than NGC four date/mint mark combinations of Westward Journey business strike nickels, and the results are in.
    The best quality came from original bank wrapped rolls (2005-P Bison) acquired in a trade with another Collector Society member. (Thanks!!)
    There's not too much thrill in owning dozens of lower registry-quality coins and saddling oneself with over $1000 in costs for essentially slabbed pocket change ... But it IS rewarding to slab GOBS of these common coins with bag and roll toning not normally seen on the market.
    I've added my keepers from this bulk invoice to my personal registry (1965-date 5c business strike), with photos. The photo is from my MS66 2005-P Bison.
    Too bad I can't win a registry award for most ultramodern MS65's, .

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  11. Thane1
    How many AU-58's do YOU own?
    How many great coins do YOU own? Coins so great, they look BU, but have just that trace of wear? AU-58, right?
    How many crappy coins do you own? Not a trace of wear, but all those NASTY bag marks and gouges and dings and scrapes? MS-60, right? (62 if you're lucky ...)
    Why should those nasty MS-60 coins be "worth" more than those great AU-58 coins?
    It's time to allow AU grades up to 64 and MS grades down to 50.
    No uploaded image necessary ... we've all been there.
    One last note: read all the journals! They're posting fast and furious, but there've been some good ones from the last couple days that've already disappeared from the CS homepage, due to posters like me :-)
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  12. Thane1

    Last minute gift idea

    By Thane1,

    Here's a great way to spend the holiday week with your kid - but hurry!
    A couple weeks ago, I ordered a box of half dollars (1000 x $.50 = $500) from the bank. I'd had my Whitman folders of half dollars for years, but obviously it wasn't going to get filled from circulation anymore.
    From that one box of coins, I was able to fill virtually my entire album. Okay, every slot after silver, except 1978-D, 1987-P, 1987-D, 2001-P, and 2003-D.
    You could buy a couple albums, fill every slot, and this gift would still cost under $50. And, you'd get the joy of going through the coins together. Kids love big coins!
    Then, think of all the extra cash sitting around - do you take $450 back to the bank in coin? Do you give out lunch money in half dollars?
    No, not every kid will geek out on this - but I'm pretty sure if my dad had given me a gift like this, I'd've FREAKED in a very good way. I didn't even know coins came in boxes!
    Happy Holidays, lots of rest, peace and love wherever and with whomever you may be-

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  13. Thane1
    As a way to allow those of us with limited means to compete meaningfully for a trophy next year, I propose the following award categories via our "Signature Sets."
    (1) BEST TONED MODERN YEAR SET. Minimum grade on all coins - MS 65. Exclude SMS in SMS years, since toning on those coins shouldn't really be competing with bank bags, rolls and other environmental hazards.
    (2) BEST MODERN TYPE SET ACQUIRED RAW (all slabs self-slabbed). Possible subcategories could include (a) acquired raw only in a certain time frame, e.g. 2011; (b) acquired raw only at face value, i.e. from the bank; © a type set of only one denomination (imagine slabbing an AG 1899 1c!); (d) RPM's only.
    (3) BEST MODERN TYPE SET - ERRORS ONLY.
     
    You all get the idea. My inspiration for this was when I searched 4 rolls of 2001 Sacagawea dollars, mint- (not bank-) wrapped. In one roll, a shred of string had sat there all those years. Several coins had huge tone patterns we normally associate with Morgans left in some New Orleans basement bank vault.
    Frankly, I'm almost bored looking at all these modern collections of pristine coins. It's a bit like watching Star Wars and trying to pick out which Stormtrooper is the best-dressed. It's time for us to appreciate the INDIVIDUALITY of our coins, the crazy lives these reactive metals lead.
    And think of the treasure troves of toned coins out there. There are not only MILLIONS of COINS out there in bank rolls, there are MILLIONS of ROLLS out there. Start buying your rolls now from Houston and Miami, and bring on those moldy, humid rolls! Although the economy is recovering, there are still thousands of collectors out there who cannot afford to hold their Pennsylvania 25c rolls anymore.
    Sorry there's no photo - I'm having issues getting my camera to talk to my USB port :-(
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  14. Thane1

    Thanks to all the dead

    By Thane1,

    Admit it, without estate coins, our hobby would be a lot tougher
    My primary focus right now is on my Lincoln Memorial Cent MS collection. Some years are pretty tough to find good examples of. The Denver mint's known for loose quality control in the 1970's, and the Philadelphia mint was even worse in the 1980's.
    I'm mostly using three methods to fill my set: (1) original bank wraps; (2) circulated bank rolls; and (3) collector rolls, including my own saved spare change.
    For the OBW's, chemistry is everything. Shrink wrap (so far) has been great. The c. 1960 brown paper tends to let in black carbon spotting. But the worst OBW's have been rolled in wax paper c. 1980 (SEE PICTURE). Even if you find a decent coin (I'd grade this one MS 66), the splotchy corrosion is a problem.
    I'm curious to see how the graders view OBW-caused corrosion. Clearly in silver, it elevates coin value. But in copper ...
    Circulated bank rolls have been great at filling spots since the 1980's with MS 66 or so. Good for a set, bad for resale value. Besides scratches, no problem has ruined this approach.
    But collector rolls! ooh boy! I laugh and cringe at some other journals' stories about paying 2-4x face for estate coins. Fair enough for copper, but silver? I suppose it's not robbery if both parties are happy. I tried going into the life insurance business fifteen years ago, and even though I was helping people protect their families better, I still disliked that I wasn't selling them the best product or approach.
    But admit it, dead men's coins are what keep many of us going. I bought a couple handfuls of 1968 1c collector rolls, not OBW. While there hasn't been a blockbuster MS 68 so far, there have been ZERO toning or corrosion problems. Problem scratches have run about half (or less!) of typical OBW's. And I acquired them for little more than melt value off EBay. I'm sure the previous buyer got them for 1x-2.5x face, so we're all happy.
    So when I die, will my family view my coin collection as a mess they'd rather sell at 2x face than have to rummage for treasure? or will I have already sold off the culls, organized the good 2x2's, graded the best, and catalogued it all in a way they would understand?

  15. Thane1
    Who else thinks hundreds of circulated quarter designs in a couple decades is just TOO MUCH?
    Greetings collectors,
    I just waved the magic loupe over a couple rolls of Grand Canyon quarters (thanks, Kerry!) ... and I've got a few thoughts.
    1. Putting a design of a bunch of rocks on a coin made of metal ripped out of the ground is not my idea of great coinage. Next time, the mint (errr, Congress) should choose FACES, BUILDINGS and ANIMALS, please!
    2. Grading a design of a bunch of rocks that have eroded for centuries is difficult for the human brain. Nicks join the design itself.
    3. Recessing the complete text of the reverse makes this look even more like a medal, play money, or (worst of all) a British pound.
    4. We're the collectors, so we're the last ones to figure this out. But, for the rest of Americans (or the world), aren't they getting tired of all the latest in their pocket change? LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED TO BASEBALL CARDS. Topps wasn't good enough. But a few Fleer Ultra and High Definition and splintered bats woven into the card, and the hobby drowned in its own superfluity.
    5. When will NGC (or another service) begin using computer imaging, a la facial recognition software, to grade coins? That would be a shame for all the Morgan tone monsters out there deserving an MS65 despite their scratches; but I don't see how the human eye can pick apart rocks from scratches on this Grand Canyon quarter in ten seconds.
    And finally, a question - these rolls seem especially satiny. Does the mint dump their satin seconds into circulation? Share or overlap certain dies or production techniques between satin and business strike? I've noticed plenty of other satins in circulation, the trend has increased in the past decade, but then why have satins been around longer than the mint has put them in mint sets?
    The photo comes courtesy of statequarterguide.com

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  16. Thane1
    I just joined PCGS for a better look at populations than can be gotten through auction sites.
    Now that I'm a member of both NGC and PCGS, I can truly compare the services.
    I'm not experienced enough in the grades to really compare grading across the services. I'm sure that there are some variances. It's possible that one service grades more easily than another. Certainly auction houses see much better results for modern coins from PCGS than from NGC.
    But I don't think it's in NGC's best interests to grade so easily. Eventually, collectors catch on, the grading service becomes another has-been, slabs sell for raw value only (at two grades below stated value), and the service dies out.
    What else is going on? Look at the grading fee structures!
    NGC allows us small-timers to grade pretty cheaply. My submission costs, postage and all, rarely exceed $17/coin. But PCGS is pricey ... UNLESS you grade in bulk.
    Minimum bulk order: 100 coins. Additional bulk benefit: minimum grades (as long as 60% of your order exceeds), else no charge. Imagine, at NGC, grading 60 coins for $600 plus postage!! It's a fabulous deal, and it explains why there is so much modern PCGS floating around out there, while NGC is pretty skimpy. It also explains why PCGS slabs resell, but not NGC.
    Think about it. An NGC slab means the collector is small-time. What do we small-timers do? Grade our favorite coins, and sell only in financial straits or to upgrade. A PCGS guy is often a dealer, selling to collectors who don't have the time or luck to find the coin we need raw to grade ourselves.
    There just isn't enough market data out there to support modern coin valuations, and this PCGS/NGC "rivalry" further distorts the market. Dealers have to unload inventory, just to cover cost. But a true collector won't sell at any price, unless absolutely necessary ... or unless at big enough price ... or unless to a like-minded collector. I suspect many of us NGC-ers trade instead of sell. I certainly have.
    I'm particularly watching 2010 D MS dimes right now. I've talked up my dimes in past journals. I've got a homemade 67 FT and 68 FT. (I sold my 66FT for basically pennies.) The 68 FT is pop 1. There are no PCGS better than 66 FB.
    Talk about distortion, when mostly PCGS slabs are for sale! I imagine collectors "play possum" on grading new-issue coins before registry cut-off, to artificially inflate prices and make it harder for competition to keep up with their top pops. But I doubt dealers can afford to do the same. So is the dearth of PCGS dimes > 66FB to mean that a 68FT is a 1-in-a-million? Or does it mean that NGC really inflates its grades?
    If NGC practices grade inflation, well, PCGS does it just as much. There are some real 66 dogs out there. I've only ever had my dogs grade as high as 65 at NGC.
    This is all old news to many of you. But I'm still new at this. If I can really swing the cash in early 2011, I may try getting a few boxes of new MS coins and grading 100 via PCGS. It'd be a great way to build an EBay store .
    AND IN OTHER NEWS. I've got some conservation coins in the system right now. There's no way (that I know) of checking on their status with cleaning or grading, so I'm just sitting on my hands ... More on that in a later journal.
    All the best, y'all!
  17. Thane1
    I just ordered my first boxes of coins from my bank.
    W.K.F. and J Lloyd Young are onto something. I ordered 2 boxes of pennies (2 x $25, 5000 coins total) and 2 boxes of nickels (2 x $100, 4000 coins total) from my bank.
    Whooey.
    That's exhausting work. I'm used to searching just 4 or 10 rolls at a time, so I can enjoy almost every coin with a loupe and find RPM's and such in sub-MS examples. But looking at coins by the thousands, it's all about dates and gems.
    I made it through a box each of pennies and nickels this weekend. Nothing too exciting about the pennies - a 1951 S in XF was the best. I did swap out some coins in my albums for choice coins from c. 1960. My copper hoard also grew. The percentage of copper coins in circulated rolls lately seems to be about 20%, at least in my neck of the Midwest.
    The nickels were a little more exciting. Nothing quite so stellar as the 1965 MS66 I found and graded a few months ago. But here's a partial list:
    Buffalo nickel, well worn, no date
    1943 P war nickel
    1946 S
    1949 S (!)
    2009 D (2 of them)
    2010 P & D (quite a few, but not nearly in the mix like 2008 and 2007 were a few years ago)
    I continue to be amazed at the mint's quality control lately. Out of 2000 coins, I didn't notice a single major error.
    And yet, earlier today, in one unopened roll of 1973 nickels, was a split planchet (pre-strike ... 4.3/5.0 grams, so perhaps there's enough detail for it not to come back ungradeable).
    Searching circulated rolls of nickels is rough going. Those are some HEAVY coins, they really get dinged up in circulation and in bank handling. Perhaps I'm tossing more than I should back in the barrel. I looked at the Heritage Auction archives for 1973 MS66 (5)FS nickels. They were all graded PCGS, and they look terrible. Steps are decent, but the dings in key fields look like tire treads run over six-pack cardboard in the street gutter.
    The multi-holder naming contest is ongoing. See my previous post.
  18. Thane1
    What's a good name for this die break?
    Like many journal posters here, "spring cleaning" of the collection is constant. Keep what's really good, focus collecting in just a few areas, eventually get rid of everything else.
    My family recently moved. Not only moved, but downsized our dwelling, so space is at a premium. Sure, I can hold onto boxes and boxes of 2x2's, tubes of choice or better modern coinage (already searched!), etc. But I can actually put my winter hats in a closet if I shrink the coin collection ...
    The toughest stuff to whittle down: my borderline slab pile. For example, a 1968 D 1c MS65 is worth less than the slabbing fees; an MS66 might auction for less than grading fees, but someone will "buy it now" for higher eventually. That's a lot of raw coins sitting around begging me for a grade!
    In my borderline pile: a pair of 1984 P 5c I acquired in a dealer lot of 2x2's. No full steps. They're gem at best. But companion die breaks! The die breaks are almost like lamination errors - the metal has raised along a ridgeline like a mesa.
    I would never sell these coins for less than $5 each. They look great right next to each other. Flames erupt out of both sides of Monticello's roof. If I were a better close-up photographer, you would see - this close-up of the right is about the best I can do.
    I'm going to grade them together in a multi-holder. Funny how in an effort to whittle down a collection, sell stuff, and get some cash to make up for the move, I end up spending more money ...
    CONTEST. Send me a message through the Collector Society. What would you label the multiholder? I only came up with "Monticello Burning." There must be better.
    PRIZE. Your idea on my multiholder, acknowledgment in a future journal, photos posted for all to see.

  19. Thane1
    Some livid rants are bringing up good points.
    I'm finally realizing at home just how much of a packrat I've been, so I've dabbled in EBay selling to dredge the slough out of the house. So I'm getting a little perspective on where you folks with EBay problems are coming from.
    It's TIME-CONSUMING to sell things on EBay. Shooting, uploading and editing photos can be a slog. For those running big stores, I can see the temptation to grab "stock" photos.
    On the next topic, the registry contest mercifully comes but once a year. If you're thinking of competing in "Best Presented," I can see how you'd want hits to your registry webpage year-round. For the rest of us, a little patience will get us to November's registry season, when all the chips line up correctly.
    I'm realizing just WHY NGC takes many weeks to annoint the winners. Proving ownership is a beast! I haven't had that problem yet, but I still only own just a handful of truly registry quality coins, and I'm lagging on posting photos.
    It's fun to see these journals evolve. There's always been the ruminations on die patterns, mintages, tough dates, and coin shows. Sometimes, the politics and personal skullduggery stories make this forum seem more like a message board. (Nothing like a recession and high gold prices to bring out the Tea Party Gold Bugs crowd!) But I'm OK with that. Message boards get spammy with dozens or hundreds of posts a day. You journal folks really do save and organize your better thoughts for here.
    So, a round of applause for all the upstanding EBay merchants, unobscured registry holders, and avid collectors here. This is a true community!
    Finally, months of roll searching culminated in one small grading submission for me. Browse my older journals for the journey through auction-bought OBW's, circulated bank rolls, and a handful of 2010 OBW's I got from my own bank branch. I put easily over a hundred hours into this submission.
    Well, I'm not making minimum wage for my efforts, but it's fun. An MS 66 1965 business strike nickel from a circulated bank roll. Some crazy bronze toning on an Ocean View nickel (also a circulated roll) came back graded - not MS DETAILS - granted only MS 65, but I'm glad to get that one-sided bronze beauty slabbed. A top-pop 1977 1c. And (drum roll please) the ONLY 2010 D MS 68 FT 10c graded to date. Those 10c rolls were stellar, and I've got some unopened from that visit to the bank still. So somebody out there will likely find another one ... but I get the Unique Chair for at least a week.
    Thanks for the long read. Sorry, no pics - I'll get them posted in a few weeks.
    Happy collecting!
  20. Thane1
    Slabbing coins whose base cost is face plus gas to the bank
    It's unrealistic to judge the recession from collector journals, or even coin collecting as a whole ... BUT
    I'm not the only one here whose income is worse now than a couple years ago. And that's without even losing a job or having ongoing medical costs. And I'm not the only one who's collecting differently because of that.
    So, I continue to have lots of fun with modern business strikes. Sure, ten rolls of nickels from the bank at a time can make my brain bleary. But I try to spend the throwaways at the grocer's auto-checkout outside rush hour, haha. (I'm curious to learn what you other roll-searchers do. Do you have the cajones to take your throwaways back to the same branch you got the rolls?)
    The bleariness makes the discoveries more fun. They come in bunches - that's the nature of how banks get their bags and roll them up, I suppose.
    I'm finally submitting some more coins for grading - six of twelve came straight from my bank, one came literally from pocket change, and the other five from Ebay-acquired OBW's. I'm still amazed that a gem 1965 nickel could come out of circulation like that - I'm only slightly jealous of you bank tellers who know a coin's history more than I do.
    There are plenty more worth grading (esp. for RPM's, cuds and die breaks), but with budget in mind, I went for high resale value only.
    The Memorial reverse is of a 1977 - it should easily replace my MS 64 in my registry! We'll see ...

  21. Thane1
    Is this a leading indicator for a double-dip recession?
    Bullion prices are strong. High-end coins are still setting new records. But lesser coins are going for next to nothing.
    I was watching a few coins on Ebay last weekend. Some NGC-slabbed, modern Lincoln Memorial Cents in MS went for about 15% of their Numismedia value. (I didn't bid, maybe that's why!)
    Check out this live auction from last week (http://www.proxibid.com/asp/catalog.asp?aid=29454). I don't have a 2011 blue book yet, but some apparently OK coins went for WAY below 2010 blue book. Check out the Indian Head cents and the 1913-S Type II Buffalo Nickel!
    If only high-end coins are worth slabbing, ooh-EEE am I gonna have to change my slabbing strategy. I was hoping my Lincoln Memorial project could keep its value. Well, I've got some potential top-pop 1c ready to grade, but a lot of MS 66-ish that may have to wait ...
    I did get my recent submission back in the mail finally. (USPS took almost two weeks to deliver, I was getting nervous.) Recent Heritage auctions have gone for full-value Numismedia - that's also why I chose to sumbit these coins. You can plainly see why this 1859 Indian Head is XF - it's in my new small cent type set.

    To see old comments for this Journal entry, click here. New comments can be added below.
  22. Thane1

    2010 OBWs

    By Thane1,

    More than two years after the Great Recession's onset, I've gotten my first unopened OBW from my local bank branch.
    The Great Recession supposedly didn't hit my nook of the Midwest that hard, but newer change has been hard to come by via my bank.
    I've enjoyed searching mostly pennies and nickels, but on a lark I asked for ten rolls of dimes on my last withdrawal. I just finished searching my third roll - all 2010D!
    At least half would rate FT. Some typically scarred fields can be very clean, so I imagine MS 68 will be common for this year. This particular roll has two gradeable coins for me - a likely MS 67 FT and a MS 65/66 FT with a moderate lamination issue behind the ear.
    I'm learning which bank branches seem to get the best results. The downtown branch clerk admitted to me that he watches the counter for steel pennies ... not a good sign for me! Customers at other branches likely shop with credit cards more than spend cash ... these are the branches where older coins are likelier from the jars of spare change getting dredged from under the couch.
    The best branches, I'm finding, are in neighborhoods where unemployment is low and folks spend cash more than plastic. The same branch with the 2010D dimes also had a nickel roll heavy in clean Westward Journey nickels, many in nicely toned bronze.
    Happy searching, everyone -
  23. Thane1
    Error coins - what are the odds?
    My latest bank circulated roll find - (presumably) a fully split Jefferson nickel planchet. I got the reverse with a D mintmark, and the coin weighs 4.3 grams.
    The obverse is totally naked. Pretty amazing for only missing 0.7 grams. It's clearly circulated. We're all collectors - can any of us imagine holding that coin and not noticing something awry? And yet every other person who touched that coin for at least the past 46 years spent their $.05 instead of saving.
    Out of all my bank wraps I've searched in the past year, this takes the cake. I've had a questionable D/S clad Roosevelt and a Wheat Cent with 3 really minor clips. Varieties are around, sure, but errors have been truly rare.
    Quality control at the mint, even in poor years, is pretty amazing.
  24. Thane1
    What will collectors think in 100 years?
    I just read NCS's article on conserving carbon spots.
    http://www.ncscoin.com/news/enews/2010/April/article1.asp
    Wow.
    When is conserving conserving, and when is conserving cleaning?
    The great thing about some coins that were cleaned 80 years ago is that they've had time and circumstances to tone again. But put a newly conserved coin into a slab, wait 80 years, and in 2090, they won't have changed a lick. What will collectors think then?
    I suppose I might conserve some of my modern mint set, proof and commemorative coins, just to see how they grade out. There's still a risk, I suppose, of the "ghost" toning spots - or of NCS just deciding to delete all the tone entirely.
    I love the toning especially on c. 1960 cello-encased nickels. That'd be a shame to lose.
    The pictured 1962 Franklin would probably grade around PF 68 with no cameo, if carbon spots like on the left rim were removed. As a buyer, I don't care so much whether cleaned or not when it's just a $30-$50 coin.
    But what if it graded PF 68 UC? PF 69 CA? Would you pay $300 for a coin that conservationists in 50 years might debunk as cleaned?
    I'll be moving cautiously on my carbon spotted coins, of which I have maaaaaannnyyyyyy ...

  25. Thane1

    strike doubling

    By Thane1,

    Easy to find, cheap, and often more spectacular than double dies
    My coin collection has taken a back seat in the past month to other of life's pursuits.
    But of the last few bank wraps I've examined, one 1994 1c roll had a lot of strike doubling. Enjoy the closeups!
    It'll be at least a month before this coin's brother makes it into my registry. For the next new slabs, I'm trying to take photos before slabbed. We'll see ...
    Happy taxes, all -