cladking

On 5/30/2024 at 6:26 PM, VKurtB said:

Yes, THIS is true. What they’re saying is “this is all they’re worth IF you can find them”. The problem is people like me. I want them but I still won’t (and don’t need to) pay up for them. Good clad (actually plated and other base metal too) stuff can stay cheap forever, as far as I care. 

I said ten years ago that if I were a young man I would start collections of aluminum coins.  These have done very well over the last ten years but there is still a great deal f potential in them.  

There are countless greatly undervalued modern coins.  I barely have any aluminum at all because such a high percentage of them are exceedingly common because they tend to be very low denomination. But still there are scarcities and many were made to very very low standards so attractive examples can be very elusive even where many exist.  Try finding nice Indian 10p coins from the '70's and '80's for instance in anything even approaching Gem.  

Q.A.:  "Trauma"... "open wounds in the hobby"... "boomers (Me!) are never going to accept clad coins"...  Say, I wonder how this guy was able to get ahold of my life story???

Catalogers still list unrealistically low prices for moderns to avoid offending their customers;  boomers.  

On 5/30/2024 at 12:36 PM, VKurtB said:

You REALLY REALLY need to check out bins and tables at shows, including the literal barrels of world coins at the ANA Kids Zone. By the way, at the Monroeville PAN show, the closest dealer to the Exhibits Area had at least 500 BU rolls in his cases, and hundreds of uncirculated and proof sets. They exist. You just hafta get out into meatspace and look. 

There are literally billions of world coins including billions in BU rolls and in mint sets.  

But this simple fact has no effect on the price of tea in China nor in the availability of something like a 1950-E E German 10p coin nor a nice 1967 Japanese 100Y.  You can't make a silk purse of a cow's ear nor a 1954-B Indian 2 a  out of a bicentennial quarter.  There is no kind of eraser that will remove a scrape from a '80-D half dollar or the wear from a '72-D type h quarter.  It's all done.  The fat lady has sung, and the ship sailed.    It doesn't matter that you can lay hands on many thousands of Yugoslavian 50 D because many other coins are gone now.   Yes, there are millions of proof sets but there are few world mint sets and more importantly very few world modern ever existed in mint sets.  

It's not "world moderns" that are rare.  It's most world moderns.  Make a list of all world moderns and 20% of the coins on the list make up 99% of all moderns available.   

Stick it with a fork because most of the coins have already been withdrawn and melted by the issuer.  

On 5/30/2024 at 12:00 PM, zadok said:

...do u find this to be true for both US collectors n foreign collectors or is it more one way than the other?....

Hatred of base metal is a one off.  In every country silver was removed from the coinage beginning in 1945.  I've always suspected it was a part of the Breton Woods Agreement.  In each country people stopped collecting new coins when they were debased.  Keep in mind though that in those days more Americans collected foreign coins than the number who collected in those countries. This is still true for more than half of other countries. Americans continued to collect some of these but tended to ignore them.  However they did continue to collect foreign base metal coins that existed before the debasement. 

The switchover to clad was traumatic to most coin collectors beginning in 1964 when it was announced the current date coins would be made for all time killing the BU roll market was was huge at that time.  Then it got much worse from there and there are still open wounds in the hobby to this day.  The biggest such wound is the simple fact that most boomers are never going to even accept clad coins as actually being coins at all.  Even nickels that remained exactly the same in 1965 except far lower mintages could never be seen as actual "coins". 

Many coins made since 1945 simply no longer exist.  Attrition in some cases exceeds 99.9% 

Coins that defy the odds are usually heavily won and cull.  There's a new generation collecting these now right in the countries of origin and prices are simply exploding.  

On 5/29/2024 at 7:29 AM, Henri Charriere said:

I still cannot understand why anyone would be enamored of clad coins so much that they would identify themselves as being cladking.

 

Words have many meanings and they all get parsed.  

Nobody points at me in my brand new birthday suit.   

Mebbe the meek really will inherit the earth but until then I can play "Pretender to the Throne".  

Nice attractive clad is very hard to find.  Even many of the coins slabbed as high grade can be very unattractive due to poor strikes, poor dies, chicken scratching, and poorly centered strikes.  A very low percentage of clad coins were attractive when the came off the dies and a startling low percentage of these were saved.  Today the kind of quality that people take for granted in older coins can be hard to find in many clads and moderns.  

Try finding any of the above coins raw and see how it goes.  It will give you a feel for what's available.  THEN look for them in high grade slabs and you'll see most of these suffer the exact same problems but are otherwise free of marks.  

1984 cents have very unattractive surfaces.  About 98% are ugly at arms length.  Of the remaining 2% most have carbon spots and they additionally have bubbles and various manufacturing defects. They aren't hard to find with very little marking; they are hard to find attractive.  Try finding a '76 type I dollar that is fully struck by good dies and isn't covered with chicken scratching AND marks.  

No!  The problem most assuredly is NOT that the supply is too high.  There may exist not even one of some moderns in true Gem. The problem is lack of demand. There are a mere handful of collectors seeking the best coins and not all of these people even have registry sets.  I believe this number can increase just as the demand for the coins I listed above and are NOT registry set caliber can increase dramatically.  I mean come on, I'm suggesting a nice '80-D half dollar that isn't scraped is tough!  If you don't mind scrapes then there are otherwise nice looking '80-D's everywhere.  If you do mind scrapes they are none to common.  

People consider all moderns "uncollectible" so they don't even look.  This will not persist indefinitely.  

On 5/27/2024 at 2:24 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

This thread requires some bigtime navigation, and it also clouded up some others. 

Nonetheless, for those who came in late, can you give maybe 10 "moderns" that you think will appreciate in the next 5 or 10 or 20 years by a HUGE amount ?

Just go like this:

• Coin #1
• Coin #2
• Coin #3
• Etc...etc...etc...all the way up to 10 coins or however many you think can go up a ton.

That way we have specific coins (and maybe years/mintmarks)...maybe condition rarity is needed for some...and we can then disucss and go back-and-forth on specific coins.

There are lots of variables and a great deal depends on what coins specifically are desired by future collectors.  A lot depends on how you define the terms as well.  I'm going to attempt an answer by defining the terms as coins with the greatest percentage increase in price that are not dependent on being pop tops and not proofs.  

1984 1c in solid Gem

1969 25c in nice Gem.  

1992 5c in solid Gem

1982-P 25c Gem

1968 DDO dime in vchBU

1976 type I Ike in solid gemmy condition

1966 5C SMS FS

1965 10c SMS FT

1965 dCAM cent

1980-D 50c solid Gem.

"vchBU" means a very well made coin with full luster and reasonably clean. (MS-63)

"gemmy" means a well made coin with minimal marking and no major strike or die deficiency. (MS-64)

"Gem" means a well made well centered coin made by good dies with very little marking.  (MS-65)

"solid Gem" allows no grading parameters to be weak or borderline. (Ms-65/66)

Services allow worn die strikes and poor strikes to get higher grades and future collectors may not want any coins without full detail/ full strikes.  They also won't want carbon spots and unattractive coins.  "Ugly" plagues almost all clads and especially the early years and the '82/'83 issues.  There are numerous other moderns that are really quite scarce in nice attractive condition or even just nice chBU.  There are quite a few very scarce and important varieties like '71-D/D dimes and '70-S sm dt in high grade.  There are hundreds of highly desirable modern US coins that will probably enjoy spectacular gains some day.   

Most of these I know for a fact are rare because my sample size is more than sufficient but others of these can not properly be sampled because all coins "bunch up"; ie- there could be someone with 100 rolls of really nice '84 cents through sheer coincidence.  Despite looking at hundreds of rolls and thousands of mint sets perhaps I was just unluck in finding this coin. Other coins simply won't exist because they weren't saved or didn't appear in mint sets.  For instance 98% of '80-D half dollars in mint sets are scraped.  The 2% that are not scraped are almost always poor strikes or have deficiencies.  People weren't going through rolls of half dollars in 1980 looking for Gems.   I got lucky and found a few in souvenir sets but most of these are gone now and fewer than 1% were Gem.  

On 4/20/2024 at 1:49 PM, powermad5000 said:

This is listed as $1.00 in the price guide but in reality is worth about 30c. I had my reasons which I don't need to explain.

Greysheet lists this coin for 15c and even this is a little optimistic if it's really only MS-61.  Buyers willing to pay 15c want mostly MS-63 and better.  

There is certainly room for price increases if any demand ever materializes.  

On 4/20/2024 at 6:07 AM, Henri Charriere said:

 

The soothsayer residing within me says U.S.  Moderns will never be hot.

 

 Modern coins look cheap and sound cheaper when dropped. The future of the hobby lies in the past.

I'm sometimes little more optimistic than you are. I can grow extremely cynical watching the evil prosper while the good and competent fall by the wayside.  

But then I look at the children and remember most of them will try to do what is right and our job is to merely teach them right from wrong.  They remind me that where there's life there is hope and there's nothing like a human or entire generation of humans working together to get any job done.  

I believe that right up to the time we manage to make human life impossible there is a virtual certainty that moderns will be hot.  Collectors collect and so long as there are collectors someone is going to want every coin; even if it is nothing but "clad".  

On 4/19/2024 at 7:10 PM, cladking said:

The paper currency no longer has ,much value either inasmuch as no significant purchases can be made with it.

Last year I made the monumental mistake of buying a computer with cash.  I expected it to cost under $400 but the HP I bought that doesn't even have a disc drive, monitor, or anything else  was well over $500 by the time they added everything up!  I thought it was a good time to get rid of a few bills but I sure was wrong.  They acted like they had never seen cash before and managers were crawling out of the woodwork to OK it and pass on it.  You'd think I was trying to cash a third party check on a foreign bank with all the commotion.  Believe me I've actually done this before and it took less time.  Maybe they thought I was planning to come back after closing time and steal the bank deposit.  

When I set aside a Gem 1980 quarter I knew full well that I was taking a large risk on inflation and opportunity costs.  Never did I realize the loaf of bread I didn't buy with that quarter might someday require a handful of quarters in the form of a credit card.  

Every day the world gets screwier but people don't seem to notice.  We have the worst products in history yet their producers of it get all the money.  If I sell the Gem 1980 quarter the middlemen, ebay, and paypal get the lion's share.  

It's not just collectors who hate moderns;

https://goldseek.com/article/americans-throw-away-millions-us-coins-because-american-money-junk

The American public probably "throws away" a lot more than 68 million dollars worth each year if you add in what ends up on the ground, recycled with cars,  and in public incinerators.  A lot of coins are discarded accidently or are dropped but not worth the effort of retrieving.  Most countries have some coins of real value and their vending industry flourishes but here coins have no value as the government wants it that way.  The paper currency no longer has ,much value either inasmuch as no significant purchases can be made with it.  Every year inflation chips away more at the value of coins and more coins are discarded and lost.  Every year all those old quarters are further degraded and another ~4% are lost forever.  Older coins have a higher attrition because they are thinner and lighter.  Soon enough they'll just be a memory.  When the government demonetizes and recalls them there will be only a few left to turn into refrigerators and other appliances that won't last.  But at least we'll have gotten our money's worth out of the clads; the last vestiges of quality in a throw away society.  

On 4/18/2024 at 6:05 PM, World Colonial said:

I wasn't referring to mintages or survivors.  The sources I listed prove that your claim of this coinage not being collected is wrong, again. 

Even though debased coinage is USUALLY scarcer and often much scarcer than the coins they replace they usually sell for a small fraction of the price.  

Why would you think this is?  

On 4/16/2024 at 6:47 PM, World Colonial said:

There is no practical difference to most collectors between the scarcity of this coinage.  I've told you this before, but you won't accept it.

Repeating things that aren't true has no effect on anything.  You can find fistfuls of Unc and gemmy British silver for every 500 fine coin you can find yet the sterling sells for more.   Then you can find a lot more of the 500 fine than cu can the cu/ ni yet the 500 sells for more.  

On 4/16/2024 at 6:47 PM, World Colonial said:

So are world mint sales? 

Mintage and sales are irrelevant.  The only things that count are how many survive and how many want one.  

On 4/16/2024 at 6:47 PM, World Colonial said:

The scarcity difference is of no relevance to most collectors.  It's only relevant to a tiny fraction like you, and you won't even pay the prices you think it should be worth. 

I'm selling.   Not because I have as much profit as possible but because of my age.  

On 4/16/2024 at 3:50 PM, VKurtB said:

As an ardent collector of British shillings, I can confirm that finding high quality British CuNi pieces is taking some time and checking lots of stock boxes. Luckily there is no shortage of dealers at the bigger shows to check. I filled a lot of holes with a single bulk lot at auction. I am enjoying the hunt for the balance. 

I had a chance to buy a few hundred of the scarce 1959 Scottish 1S back in 1995 but would have to take them all at ~40c each.  I passed.  They were almost all XF and AU with a few VF's and sliders.  

I doubt many of the cu/ ni coins are tough in XF except maybe the early ones.  I see a lot in poundage and they tend to be F.   

Moderns are funny.  It seems most are either more common or less common than one would expect.  

On 4/16/2024 at 3:50 PM, VKurtB said:

As an ardent collector of British shillings, I can confirm that finding high quality British CuNi pieces is taking some time and checking lots of stock boxes. Luckily there is no shortage of dealers at the bigger shows to check. I filled a lot of holes with a single bulk lot at auction. I am enjoying the hunt for the balance. 

Imagine how hard these would be to find if there were lots of collectors and lots of collections!  

20 years ago most of them were just a dollar or two each and I always picked them up but rarely saw them.  Now they are five or ten dollars and you still don't see them.  These come nice but Gems are not easy.  A lot of them are tarnished and these don't clean up as readily as clad.  There are lots of sliders and AU's also.  

On 4/15/2024 at 5:58 PM, World Colonial said:

Your claim is demonstrably wrong.  What you're describing is collectors refusing to pay the price you think this coinage should be worth.

No.  what I am describing is collectors refusing to pay much less for scarcer coins because they are base metal.  There's a simple reason they won't pay a lower prices for scarcer coins: They don't collect them because they are believed to be common debased junk.  Part of the reason they are considered such is that mintages are higher and quality is lower on average.  

I can find handfuls of nice chBU, XF, and VF British sterling for every "common" mid-'20's .500 fine debased junk.   Then I can find handfuls of high grade .500 fine for the '50's era cu/ ni coins in BU.  

It's this way in "every" country.  

On 4/13/2024 at 9:07 PM, World Colonial said:

Modern applies to US coinage because it's distinctly part of the collecting culture.

It doesn't apply in anything close to the same context elsewhere.

In almost all countries (at least major countries) between the Bretton Woods agreement and 1968 silver was discontinued and the coins were replaced by base metals, usually cu/ni.   Referring to the debased coinage as "modern" makes sense because its introduction in every case marked the beginning of the cessation of collecting new coinage.  In a few case copper coins that were unaffected by the debasement continued to be collected but in most (such as the US) all coin collecting of new coin ceased.   This happened in this country in 1965 but in most countries it was earlier and in a few it was later.  

The definition of "modern" hence is "new debased coinage that was not collected and usually still isn't".  

Whether or not this ball was set in motion in Bretton Woods is a question that won't be answered for years yet.  I strongly suspect it was.  

Mebbe the bankers wanted all the precious metals so they could sell the same bar to numerous individuals.  

On 4/15/2024 at 1:26 PM, VKurtB said:

The number of members in the ANA today is well ABOVE that in 1964. 

I wasn't aware of this.  

When I was young back in the late-'50's/ early '60's most of my friends were collectors though most rarely bought coins or supplies.  I suppose it's possible that it's more  widespread today than I believed.  

I've been trying to get the numbers for coin folders that are printed each year but haven't succeeded.  I'm sure it's very substantial because I see these everywhere except filled and walking into coin shops.  Obviously there are a lot of state quarter collectors.  

If you define "collector" as anyone with a collection of coins that they are studying and increasing or simply has an advanced collection then there are probably at the very least 10,000,000 collectors.  About 1,000,000 of them buy supplies, services, or coins on a continuing basis.  The number is still lower than in 1964 but is approaching it.  

Charles Morgan and Hubert Walker make an important observation in this article;

https://coinweek.com/1983-p-kennedy-half-dollar-a-collectors-guide/

Only two '83-P half dollars trade per day.  This pales in comparison to the number of something like an '09-S VDB that trade.  Tens of thousands of people have wheat cent collections and as the population of this group evolves coins must trade in the market; you can't take it with you and you can't have a complete set without the VDB.   

How many people are collecting half dollars for so few to trade hands?   There are no old collections, no BU rolls and WYSIWYG applies.  

On 4/15/2024 at 9:40 AM, zadok said:

...not impressed, its a coin i would pass on....

If it weren't so well struck I wouldn't give it a second look.  

Here's a really nice coin from Herndon's site;

https://www.collectorscorner.com/Products/Item.aspx?id=65660796

Believe it or not it's the best strike I've ever seen for the date!   As a buyer I'd be a little concerned about the hazing on the reverse but many collectors are not.  

It's a very remarkable coin though they also come cleaner than this.  It's one of the few high grade coins I've seen of the date that's not  blatantly overgraded and is positively among the finest.  It looks a lot like a mint set coins but it can not be, of course.   

https://www.wayneherndon.com/numisu/rolls3C.htm

Most BU rolls on the market are from mint sets.  Original BU rolls are not only hard to find but are often skunked.  Even when they are pristine the coins tend to all be ugly, poorly struck specimens from worn dies because this is the way they were made.  Sure, you can find some that are clean without great difficulty but many collectors demand attractive well made coins whether they are circulation issue or mint set.  

On 4/14/2024 at 1:04 PM, Sandon said:

Coins used in "mint sets", especially from the 1960s and 70s, weren't different from those "actually MADE to circulate". They are frequently bag marked or otherwise abraded, struck from worn dies, and show no signs of having been given any special striking or handling. It appears that random bags were sent from the production floor to be used in "mint sets". These coins can't really be considered collector's issues; they were just packaged and sold to collectors. Many of the uncirculated coins of this era that are sold as singles, certified or uncertified, likely originated in these sets.

No.  This is not true.  

Before 1965 mint set coins were probably selected for higher quality and plucked from the line.

After 1964 they used dedicated presses and the coins were made to higher standards and then washed and dried and otherwise specially handled.  Yes, these coins often don't look better than coins made for circulation but dies were retired from mint set production after only 40,000 strikes.  They were also set at even higher pressure than proof set coins.  The odds of mint set coins being Gem are many multiples the odds of regular coinage even if most mint set coins are bad.  

The mint described the coins as regular production coinage until 1996 when they admitted they were specially made.  Well made coins made for circulation are most unusual and coupled with the very low savings rate is why the number of Gems for almost every single mint and date of all denominations is closely correlated to their incidence in mint sets.  A few Ike dates and the '80-D half are the only exceptions I can think of but these exception exist for identifiable reasons; a larger percentage of Ike production was set aside than any other denomination.  
 

One coin in 4000 in mint sets is from a brand new die.   Only one in 100,000 of the early clad made for circulation is from a new die.  Mint set dies make about 10 new die strikes.  I imagine that regular dies make twice as many, or more, because they are at lower pressure.  These coins appear 'matte" for lack of a better word.  

On 4/14/2024 at 9:41 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I am a little confused at this point.  I was a coin collector in the 60's, 70's, 80's etc.  I have never had any interest in mint sets or proof sets.  My collecting interest has always focused on coins that were actually MADE to circulate.  Likewise all modern coins I have collected came straight from circulation.  

As the mint says "mint set coins ARE regular issue coins".  But collectors took this to mean they were shoveled off the floor of the mint and put in mint sets.  In actuality mint set coins would more accurately be thought of as early strikes made more carefully than "run of the mill coins".  They are made on older presses that are slower leaving more time for the design to strike up.  They usually use the exact same dies with more pressure burt the biggest difference is none of the above.  You can't tell by looking at a coin how much pressure was used, the nature of the press, or how fast it was made.  What you can tell is the condition of the die and mint set coins are all made with new dies.  These same dies are then used to make regular issues and some regular issues are made by new dies.  Long and short of it is that for every single practical purpose these are just like the coins in circulation.  However, most of the coins made for circulation are garbage and Gems are very scarce.  Finding Gems in mint sets is like shooting fish in a barrel: You might miss the one you're aiming at but another will float to the surface.  There's still far more water than fish though.  

On 4/14/2024 at 9:41 AM, samclemen3991 said:

I take it I am to understand that anyone seeking a high quality coin to collect from this era MUST actually pursue specially made and marketed coins because production levels were so poor?

No, quite the opposite.  Anyone pursuing modern collections is missing the boat entirely if they ignore BU rolls.  Sure you can more easily find Gems of every date but some of the coins made for circulation are just as pretty.  Just because a die isn't brand new doesn't mean it can't create a virtually perfect strike and then remain pristine.  Many coins (especially varieties) don't appear in mint sets at all  and a few are invariably scratched in the mint set.  The '80-D half dollar, for instance, almost always has shallow gouges on it caused by the mint set handling equipment.  There is no right or wrong way to build modern collections but the only way to find many Gems is in mint sets because there are no rolls saved.   '67 quarters for instance trade at well over $150 per roll.  These often come very nice but Gems are exceedingly scarce and the only others of this date are SMS which are distinct from circulation issues.   Imagine how few of these rolls must exist for the paltry demand to push the price so high!   

I'm quite confident they made Gems of every single modern coin for circulation.  But, there are quite a few I've never seen because their incidence is so low and there are so few saved.  Some coins were likely made as Gem less than .0001% of the time so you need a good sample of many hundreds of coins.  These Gems would bunch up a lot so you could look at a hundred bags of a date and see none and then the 101st bag have dozens and dozens of Gems.  I lack sufficient sample size on most of these coins to even guess.  Remember I looked at very large numbers of '69 quarters made for circulation and ever one was awful.  Long after I gave up a dealer gave me a few in change and I found a bunch of Gems in his cash register.  I value these a lot because they are Gem and obviously not mint set coins.   They may "all" be unique.