Way past my conservative estimate...

A couple posts ago I wrote about a common variety 1848 large cent, NGC graded MS67BN, to be auctioned tomorrow (12/8/2011). I wrote that I expected the final bid to reach at least $3000 (plus juice). Given that MS66BN examples, like mine, can be had for under $2000, that was a conservative estimate, and I was thinking the total cost might reach about $5000. I had put in an early bid of $1500 to keep it in the My Bids list. If I had the money, I would have been comfortable bidding to about $3500 ($4025 w/ BP).

Well, the current bid is $8500 ($9775 with BP). I can not really figure this out.

A type collector can get MS67s from the 1850s for under $3000 without too much trouble. My three were all under $1750.

A PCGS registry collector would pass, as this coin is in an NGC slab. Given its supposed history in a PCGS MS63 slab, the likelihood of a successful cross may be low.

An NGC registry collector would find it attractive, as do I. But given the state of the top sets, this coin will not change the rankings, unless the cardinal obscured set (not updated for well over a year) gets it.

A collector of the finest early copper, registry participant or not, would have known of the appearance of this coin in the Goldberg sale of the Holmes collection earlier this year. The fact that it was uncertified at the time would make little difference, as such collectors tend to hate slabs, and the catalog description identified it as being high in the condition census for its variety. As I wrote, it sold for $1438 in that sale. Where were the 10k bidders then?

I suppose it could just be a nice move for someone who has the cash. But even if money were no object, I don't think I would go quite that crazy.