Maybe it's not obvious, since the markets are up about double since the March 2009 bottom, but for most collectibles markets, we're in a SERIOUS bear market.

Amidst all the hoopla and euphoria of rising gold and especially silver prices ... amidst the record sale prices for super-rare coins ...

The REST of the collectible market is in a SERIOUS FUNK. Ask anyone trying to unload an MS67 or MS68 modern penny ... or a PF70UC any denomination ... there is NO DEMAND. The price floor is not being set by buyers, but rathers by sellers.

Spend a few months watching EBay auctions. A few Buy-It-Now sales might go through for half of Numismedia value for non-silver modern top pops. Any seller brave enough to run a no-reserve low opening bid auction will probably sell for 25% or less of Numismedia.

And that's just for slabs. Notice how Wheat cents are still only 4x face. Try hard and you can probably have some for 3x face - or less.

Or watch the following EBay auction for $200 face in no-date Buffalo nickels. Starting price $1000 (5x face). Just a few years ago, even junk buffalos were going for 50c each.

http://cgi.ebay.com/Buffalo-Nickel-Lot-4000-Sealed-Bag-/130524846030?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item1e63e317ce

We're in uncharted economic territory here. (1) Impending displacement of the USD as a global reserve currency, much like the British pound a century ago. (2) Forget the global economic malaise ... how about global sovereign debts in all but a few countries running unsustainably? (3) Unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) = printing money out of thin air to stimulate lending and consumption. (4) Banana-republic-like propping of elephant industries (like cars) in many countries (not just the US), so that most of the industrialized world may go the way of Chavez's Venezuela ... eventually the state employs everyone, innovation stops, and folks collect worthless paychecks for worthless work. Oh, don't forget the top 1% keep all the wealth, so with careful media and ballot box control, we all convince ourselves that the world's OK and the "system" works!

Enough Tea Party ranting already. One of my favorite market commentaries mentioned collectibles, and I figured other collectors would appreciate the link. The final question: Is non-precious metal coin collecting dead? Or can we treat this collectible ("discretionary spending") bear market as any bear market, and use the market low as a buying opportunity? ... How you answer that question probably depends on your views of the gold standard, currency armageddon, hyperinflation, etc.

Commentary link follows.

[The following link is to their monthly update - if you're reading this journal after June 2011, you'll need to browse their website to find a different URL for their June 2011 commentary.]

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

THEIR QUOTE:

The picture by now should indeed be crystal clear. The ONLY category of retail that has been growing its sales as a percentage of total retail sales over both of the QE periods has been gasoline, again leaving the non-store retailing trends aside. And this is Mr. Bernanke's wealth effect? To be honest it has indeed worked wonders for wealth generation - the wealth of crude oil producers, that is. The collective and very simple message is that there has been no wealth effect at all if one defines that as an increase in discretionary consumption. The Fed has incited commodity and equity speculation in its QE heroics, with the results being the rising cost of gasoline has acted to "displace" alternative forms of discretionary retail spending. Too bad the mainstream media simply seems not to have had the time over the last few years to dig beneath the pretty retail sales headlines, no?