"Just an observation, but what do I know?"

Greetings Collectors,

I guess you all are stuck with hearing from me, every day or two. Sorry... My work has dried up here in N.E. Florida and while there are a "million" things I could be doing in the way of re-modeling my own home, I choose to surround myself with coins and magazines and cameras, and any and all things "Numismatic". I guess that old saying holds true, as in "the cobblers children all need shoes".

As I have personally handled close to every coin that currently resides in my sets here, all within the last month, I have started to pay closer attention to what "value" is assigned and what the "points" total is. I did not want to take the time and look at every coin, and compare condition/grade to the corrosponding "point value". I did however, write down just a couple of things that didn't add up. Also a few other pertinate observations.

First off I want to make a comment about a post in the last month or two concerning coin prices/values coming down. I don't remember the series in question but I want to say it was "Morgan Dollars" but wouldn't swear to that. It was out of a group one would not expect to "decrease" in value. I do not keep up with current prices people are getting for "modern" coins, but for what I read here in the journals and publications that do not rely on ads from those that sell lots of modern issues, everything I hear about that group is that it is getting hard to "give them away". I have little interest in that area, and can only use a "commom sense" approach, with that when you have millions of a certain coin, and a possibility that if all were graded at some point, 3/4 of a million of them would grade 69 or 70. For some reason I can not get excited about a MS or Proof "70" Presidential Dollar or State quarter. I do know some of you love these coins and if that's what you like, I think that's great. To many, a coin increasing in value consistantly is secondary. I do not want to sound like I am "badmouthing" modern issues. I'm not. I own at least one, and lots of years way more than one of each mint and proof set since 1950. I will say that with the exception of a few years, my interest wanes at around the mid to late sixties. I at one time thought, the Silver Eagle "walked on water". Then I put together a complete set in proof with 3 or 4 70's in the bunch, even have the reverse proof, missing the '95-w and I think that with all 69's except those few 70's, my set ranks about 200. Just way too many of them, to get this "old dog" interested.

What I have always looked at has been, #1 How many were made? #2 How many do we know are out there according to the "pops". #3 Is it a coin that while many were minted, how much of an "attrition" factor is there? Is it a silver coin that may have been melted in high numbers in the past? #4 And maybe the most important factor, how popular is that coin series? as in does it have a huge collector base? These are just a few of the main things I look at when making a determination as to whether a certain price is a good deal. Then after I do all this and I study my tail off, I can get completely "blown out of the water" on occasion. What I have seen lately is if someone really wants that coin at auction, they will pay whatever it takes to get it. I frankly don't see prices coming down, if fact I see the exact opposite.

Case in point, I need a 1962 mint state Franklin Half. I would settle for a MS 64 as long as it had "full bell lines" but I have been trying for what seems like decades to build a set with MS 65 full bell line Franklins. This date is rare in 64 and very rare in 65 with FBL. It seems that even though over 12 million coins were struck at Philidelphia & Denver, finding one in "gem" MS-65 is like searching for the Holy Grail. Well, maybe not that hard, but you get my drift. According to the "foremost" authority on the series, "Rick Tomaska, his latest count on coins "in captivity" PCGS has seen 89 coins in 65 with FBL, they have seen "ONE" in 66 with FBL. NGC on the other hand, and the "stricter" grader of the two, has seen "6" coins in 65 FBL and none in 66. Each time I see where a MS-65 or 64 come up for auction, I think, could this be my lucky day? Maybe all the Franklin Half collectors will be "out to lunch" tonight or whenever that auction is. Each time not only is every Franklin Half collector on the "planet" awake, he or she has just won the lottery and could care less how much they have to spend.

Well a month or so ago a 1962 PCGS MS-65 with Full Bell Lines came up for auction and I was not going to leave this computer until the auction was over and I had that coin. I had already resolved myself to the fact that to get this coin, which was a nice "brilliant white" coin with very bold bell lines. I hoped I could win the coin for anywhere between $500 & $900 but I was prepared to go as high as $1250. I would have rather had an NGC coin going that high in price but I was willing to settle for second best, PCGS piece. When the "hammer" came down at the end of the aution, I could not beleive my eyes. The coin sold for $4600 and that was before buyers fees. I had a sick knot in my gut, not for just failing to get this coin, but a sick feeling that I may have waited six months to a year too long in getting around to getting one at all, in 64 or 65. I still wait and watch for not only this 1962-P but I need all the P's 1960,1961,1962 & the 1963. I need all four of these in "65" with those blasted "full bell lines". This is a set I started to only try to achieve in MS-64 FBL but thats what I said about my Walker Halves and now I have set number one, two and three in both those & these half dollars.

What I really wanted to compare is the difference between the points on a 1960-D of the Franklin Half Dollar series. The full bell line coins are the hardest to find on account of when the "master die" was re-worked starting with coins minted from 1960 onward to 1963, detail was enhanced on every area "BUT" the bottom set of lines at the bottom of the Liberty Bell on the reverse. Only the first few strikes of a new die will "strike up" well in that area. This is why they are so very very scarce or really "downright rare". But the 1960-D MS-64 with FBL gets 216 points and a 1960-D MS-65 WITHOUT FBL gets 661 points. I own one of each and had the FBL example in my "flagship set" and the 65 in set #2. Then I saw the point differance so I switched them. Rick Tomaska, come to find out, says the coin in MS-65 with the lines or not is a very "bordeline rare" coin and one that at the peak of the market in 1989 would often fetch over $3500 for a brilliant example. And I do own a nice one whose pic will soon be available for viewing in set #1. As I have investigated further, it all boils down to "how many are there in the known world?" Wow, what a rant, can't you tell they don't let me out much.

The only other example I have at hand, and I have seen many others but just don't recall them right now is, I have two Saint Gaudens gold double eagles in my set that have the following "point vs value" comparisons that I don't understand. I have a 1909-S NGC MS-64 which has a point value of 1609 and Numismedia $ value is $2190. I also have a 1914-D NGC MS-64 which is worth slightly more money at $2220 but has a point value of 1393. I just do not understand how all of this is calculated? And then I have a absolutely gorgeous proof Franklin that I posted a picture of the o