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Intrinsic value

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MikeKing

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Or maybe I should use the phrase 'intrinsic numismatic value' as put forth by a colleague (zoins) on the NGC board?

 

Buying a coin with intrinsic value depends on so many things, and the numbers of coins extant, to me, is one of the most important.Why? Because if there are only 23 extant, I'd be terribly pleased if it was originally toned, never wiped and grade almost irrelevant, but XF to AU would be perfectly pleasing to me, And if the price is good, you KNOW you're getting a real bargain, real value and all that steak and not the sizzle (I'm taking this term from Scot Travers) that an MS 64 whatever would have with a pop of >500 (NGC/PCGS combined), which though it looks pretty and the price tag may be the same or even a little or a lot more than your really SCARCE bargain, is no where as 'rare' as your low pop, even if lower grade, naturally toned, unwiped 'rare find'. Something you can really treasure in your collection.Now how do you determine the population? I'll never go to a coin show again without the NGC and PCGS pops printed out and in hand for the coins I like.Can you rely on them? Actually yes and no. Yes, in that it's the best way to actually see evidence given as numbers by two major grading companies. Now we all know those numbers are skewed by resubmissions, the numbers of which can be unbelievably high, I'm sure, when the next grade up jumps five fold. But at least you have a number, even though you know it's not absolute. It's probably even a bad approximation, but at least it gives you an idea about the SURVIVING population, because Mintage numbers, while also helpful, mean nothing when 90% of the coins were melted down for that year, rendering any comparison with mintage figure for a year in which most of the coins survived, irrelevant. Then, of course, are the Heritage Archives. Not the be all and the end all of total coins autioned off, but large enough an auction house and around long enough that you will get a very good idea about HOW MUCH of something is really out there. So when you look up the coin your interested in and you see that only 10 have been auctioned off in ANY GRADE over the past 10 years, as compared to 50 or so being auctioned off in ANY GRADE just in the past year...tells you something about the scarcity (or lack of) of the coin your interested in.Of course, when you're at a show, and you find THAT special coin, you really have to buy it immediately, lest it dissapears into someone elses hands, so even though there might be an Internet Cafe in the lobby, you may not have the time to go see what the Heritage Archives shows. Maybe this is where previous study would be helpful...to really KNOW your coins, and your want list. But then, if that want list is too large, hell if you're going to know the number of coins auctioned for each and every one.So to round this brainstormin of mine off, this is what I've come up with.It's easy enough to print out the NGC/PCGS pops for coins your interested in (e.g. all $2.5 Gold) and keep it in your pocket, so when you see a piece that is naturally toned and you know THAT in and of itself is a rarity, and you also see a really gorgeous higher grade flashy piece next to it, you can just look to see that the flashy piece has an NGC/PCGS pop combined of 1,000 (in all grades) and that original beauty in XF has a pop of 100 (NGC/PCGS combined) (in all grades) it makes it a lot easier to decide which one to purchase. Sorry for any grammatical/spelling mistakes as I'm hitting the send button lest this brain storming of mine gets deleted before I send it!

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