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I wonder...

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Revenant

Entry posted by Revenant ·

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So, the Zcoins still haven't been finalized... but the Census did go up by about 9 coins today, all mint state, and 8 of those line up with the 8 pre-hyperinflation coins in my submission… So I may have just gotten a sneak peek at some of my grades… and the grades are pretty consistent with what I would have expected from those coins… but no way to know for sure.

But, while I can’t talk grades officially yet, I have little better or more interesting to do with my socially-isolated, work-from-home, life… so I’m going to “treat” everyone to more of my scientific wild-### speculation… You’re welcome. lol Straight into my "Random nonsense" category with this one. lol 

I've had some on-side discussions with Mike about the idea of how easy or hard it would be and how well it might actually work out in practice to de-bottleneck the back end of the process by adding people to do minor work / tasks... but I do wonder if there could be another issue at play.

I was wondering the other day, how many machines does NGC have for sonically sealing the slabs? How quickly can they be loaded? How long does it take per coin to encapsulate, even if you're well practiced? What is the theoretical upper limit on the number of coins NGC can encapsulate a day without buying more machines? I’m guessing those things are not cheap and if they actually hit the upper limit of their capacity for a while it wouldn’t necessarily be a trivial choice or task to get more and bring them online.

Of course, the other thing I've wondered about at times... with 2021s supply chain issues I've wondered where they source slab parts from and how well they've been able to keep slab parts and inserts of various sizes on inventory... My local Walmart can’t even keep generic sodas in stock consistently the last few months so it does make me wonder where NGC gets their parts from and what kind of susceptibility they have to vender supply interruptions…

But the bump up in the census today has me really wondering about another wrinkle I hadn’t considered at all up to this point: The census itself.

Several of the coins I submitted in my Z coin submission were the first ones like that that NGC has ever graded, so adding those coins to the Census also probably involves building out the database on the back end to add rows / categories for those coins to go into. If NGC is getting a larger than normal in-flow of World coins, it could also be that they are getting a much higher than usual number of coins that are the first-of-their-kind-graded-by-NGC. If that’s happening that could easily cause a bottleneck / slow things down considerably because I’m sure that’s not something NGC would just hire someone off the street to work on. I’m sure the accuracy and integrity of the census or the underlying database is something they take really seriously.

Something like this would probably also explain why this would hit world coins so hard while not impacting the US coins at all. Except for new 2021 / current year issues I’m sure there’s almost nothing under the sun in American coins that NGC has not graded a thousand times over (assuming there are that many in existence). So, there wouldn’t be much need to expand / build upon the underlying database for US coins, but I’m sure there is a UNIVERSE of world coins out there that NGC has never graded before and I’m sure they’re encountering new ones with increasing frequency with their efforts to expand beyond the US…

I know from emailing customer service that my coins were probably graded 1.5 to 2 weeks ago, if not more… but the Census bumped up today / this week…

It gets even more interesting in this context that the update to the Zimbabwe census today may include all of my coins except the bond coins… That this update would include coins that are just new dates for things they have graded before but not the bond coins which they maybe be planning on entering into the census in a different way…

Of course, I don’t know… and will probably never know… because NGC customer service is very tight-lipped. I mean EXTREMELY tight lipped. But I REALLY am starting to think I’m on to something with this one…

 

As of today, World Modern turnaround times are up again to 93 working days... I'm wondering if they'll hit 100.

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Fenntucky Mike
On 9/21/2021 at 4:56 PM, Revenant said:

 "Are you not entertained?" :makepoint::roflmao:

Indeed. :acclaim:

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As of today, World Modern turnaround times are up again to 93 working days...

That officially pushes me into 2022. Should have sent my coins in when I said I would, but noooo I dragged my feet hoping for the turnaround times to get better. lol

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I'm wondering if they'll hit 100.

Yes.

While I'm seeing VERY slight improvements, or at least some leveling off, in regards to lead times for parts/materials here at work, the machine orders just keep pouring in. I don't think we've seen the last push back of turnaround times at NGC. 

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Revenant
On 9/21/2021 at 5:10 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

That officially pushes me into 2022. Should have sent my coins in when I said I would, but noooo I dragged my feet hoping for the turnaround times to get better. lol

Have you factored in the holidays and your conservation in that? You're getting your coins back in like March. lol

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Fenntucky Mike
On 9/21/2021 at 6:37 PM, Revenant said:

Have you factored in the holidays and your conservation in that? You're getting your coins back in like March. lol

Pfft, conservation, imaging, I'm screwed. :facepalm: LOL. I'm planning a submission to PMG early next year and I'm pretty sure I'll get those notes back before the coins. lol

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Mohawk

93 DAYS!!! HOLY HELL!!! Well, there goes my idea of making a quick and productive entry into grading and selling Canadian Proof Like coins.  And I'm also waiting for NGC to answer a question on those coins, which I asked on September 12.  It'll probably be another 93 days for that!!!  I actually have a pretty good sized lot of these waiting to go to NGC, but I haven't taken the plunge yet and this backlog is exactly why.  I guess we just have to stay tuned and hope for improvement to happen one of these days.......

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Revenant
On 9/21/2021 at 6:52 PM, Mohawk said:

93 DAYS!!! HOLY HELL!!! Well, there goes my idea of making a quick and productive entry into grading and selling Canadian Proof Like coins.  And I'm also waiting for NGC to answer a question on those coins, which I asked on September 12.  It'll probably be another 93 days for that!!!  I actually have a pretty good sized lot of these waiting to go to NGC, but I haven't taken the plunge yet and this backlog is exactly why.  I guess we just have to stay tuned and hope for improvement to happen one of these days.......

93 WORKING days! Remember that part. lol

I mean... if it's something you want graded, the longer you wait the further back in the line you are.

If you're hoping to flip something for a quick buck... I probably won't be quick. Given that you get charged when they arrive you'll be in the hole grading fees for months before you can try to sell. 

I'm currently buying some raw coins for a submission I probably won't send until 2022 just to get more coins together and not send them 1-3 at a time and keep paying out for shipping.

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Mohawk

Yeah.....it definitely won't be quick.  I'm into selling coins for the long haul, actually.  I've been doing it in some capacity since 2008, so it's not a quick buck kind of thing, and I'm trying to grow right now.  That's where the wait time is a drag....I can only grow as fast as NGC moves, and I'm definitely anxious to keep growing.  Since I want to see how far I can get with it, I'll definitely be sending them in at some point.  In a way, this does work out pretty well......like I said, there's something I waiting to hear from them on before I send the Canadian coins out, so I guess I'll prioritize my U.S. selling lots for now.  The Canadians will keep :).  Your entry actually helped me make an important decision regarding what to send off next, and I thank you greatly for that, my friend :) 

Edited by Mohawk
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Revenant
On 9/21/2021 at 5:10 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Yes.

While I'm seeing VERY slight improvements, or at least some leveling off, in regards to lead times for parts/materials here at work, the machine orders just keep pouring in. I don't think we've seen the last push back of turnaround times at NGC. 

Interestingly, turnaround on World Moderns has ticked DOWN to 90 days now.

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