The 1890-CC has taken a rocket like ride over the past year! I've been unsuccessfully trying to buy a second 1890-CC GSA Hoard in NGC MS63 or higher for about 13 months! The prices have shot through the roof and people are still holding on to them!

What is next?I can honestly tell you, I have no idea. And, neither does anyone else. If these things could easily be predicted, we'd all be rich. But, we aren't!There are some things about the 1890-CC that help to explain it's meteor like rise. First, it is extremely rare in a GSA Hard Pack. The NGC census shows a current population of only 581. Compare that to the almost 28,000 84-CCs. The second factor is the relative scarcity of high grade 1890-CCs in the GSA Hard Pack. There are only (13) graded 64 and only ONE graded 65, with none higher. An interesting side note is that a well known dealer is currently offering the MS65 coin at a whopping price of $75,000!By combining extreme scarcity with the already high desirability of Carson City Mint coins and the demand for GSA Hoard coins you come up with a product that is sure to bring a hefty price. Thus, the hefty price of 1890-CC GSA Hoard coins in the current marketplace. Im not sure this is an anomaly. In fact, Im rather confident that it is not. These coins are rare and desirable so why shouldnt they be bringing more money? Im of the opinion that they were under priced in relation to their GSA brethren for many years and collectors finally got wise! If Im right then the heavy prices we are seeing today could be sustainable. In fact, prices could continue to go up. In fact, I dont really expect to see prices level off until we see 1890-CCs starting to be dumped into the marketplace. It just isnt happening yet.So, again, whats next? I would answer that question with a question of my own "What other coins are 1) scarce and 2) are part of the highly sought after historic GSA Hoard and the current value doesnt accurately reflect their scarcity?"One such coin is the 1890-CCs younger brother, the 1891-CC. This coin is almost as scarce and yet it currently sells at about a 35-40% discount to the 1890-CC. Seems logical that it might have some ways to move up?The non-cc GSA hard packs are also very rare. Some of them are already bringing some fairly high prices. But, there are anomalies within the group and if you look closely you can find some bargains relative to the entire group. Im a huge collector of GSA Soft Packs. As such, I invest my personal money in these. They are extremely scarce and were issued by the GSA in their own unique holders. Most were broken out of the holders and only a few remain. Ive noticed in recent months some new collectors starting to buy these and they are starting to become a little more difficult to find at what I consider to be reasonable prices. I really envy the guys that had the foresight to start collecting these back when no one knew what they were!Regardless, the key to value in the world of collectibles is a combination of desirability (demand) and scarcity (supply). But, be careful. Just because something is scarce it doesnt automatically mean that its desirable or in demand. So, my advice when someone asks me whats going to move up in value, is instead of trying to beat the market, find something that you personally like and collect that. Then, if you get lucky and your collection begins a meteoric rise in value you can smile big. But, even if it never happens, you can still smile because of the enjoyment you got from collecting.To see old comments for this Journal entry, click here. New comments can be added below.