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Which grading ability would you choose for yourself . . . and why?

Which gift do you choose to receive from Numismaticles  

195 members have voted

  1. 1. Which gift do you choose to receive from Numismaticles

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42 posts in this topic

Numismaticles, the Greek god of coin collecting, has graciously offered to share part of his divine power with you. You may choose one of two gifts: (1) the ability to accurately assess the condition of coins across all series, or (2) the ability to predict without fail the grade that any third-party grader will assign to any coin. You can't choose both because Numismaticles does not want to make you omnipotent. Which gift do you choose for yourself and why?

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I chose #2. If I can accurately predict that, then shouldn't I be able to accurately assess the condition of all coins?

 

Edited to add: I could also make mucho cashola by cherrypicking gems!

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Without hesitation I would choose the ability to predict without fail the grade that any third-party grader will assign to any coin. After all, if I want the coins raw I can always break them out later, and the cash flow possibilities with that power are staggering.

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Without hesitation I would choose the ability to predict without fail the grade that any third-party grader will assign to any coin. After all, if I want the coins raw I can always break them out later, and the cash flow possibilities with that power are staggering.

 

Don't forget, Tom, that you won't have the ability to assess coins yourself. You'll simply be able to know in advance what grade a TPG will assign. I'm not sure if the original post was clear. Is your answer still the same?

 

I chose #2. If I can accurately predict that, then shouldn't I be able to accurately assess the condition of all coins?

 

No, you won't be able to assess diddly squat. For example, you won't be able to tell that a coin has slight rub, but you'll know for certain that a TPG will slab it as a 63.

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Well, I didn't believe that the ability to assess accurately the condition of coins across all series was mutually exclusive with being able to assess accurately within your niche. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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Well, I didn't believe that the ability to assess accurately the condition of coins across all series was mutually exclusive with being able to assess accurately within your niche. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

Yes. You'll be giving up all ability to grade for yourself if you accept the gift of predicting what grade a TPG will assign. Sorry . . . you do not get to keep your current skills.

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How can you not grade if you know what a TPG will grade the coin?

 

The same way you know that a mechanic will fix your car even though you don't know what's wrong with it or how to do the work yourself.

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Chad -- You truly are lost if you can't see a distinction between predicting what a TPG will say about a coin and actually grading a coin yourself. The two are not the same.

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Chad -- You truly are lost if you can't see a distinction between predicting what a TPG will say about a coin and actually grading a coin yourself. The two are not the same.
They are not the same, but neither are they completely distinct. In fact, I'd say they are more similar than different.

 

If you can look at a coin and know what the TPG will grade it, then presumably you're pretty good at consistently applying knowledge together with the condition of the coin in question and could do the same with, say, a grading guide. At least to some degree.

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No I get it (I think). Lou is saying you can predict what the coin will come back as from the TPG which is not invariably accurate.

 

I picked #2. There is just too much money in that to pass on.

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I chose "The ability to predict without fail the grade that any third-party grader will assign to any coin", because I don't think the first option is actually possible. But option #2 would make me very rich!

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If you have ability #2, don't you also necessarily have ability #1?

I believe not, since it isn't necessarily true (in fact, it is NOT true) that TPGs accurately assess grades across all series today, and it will most certainly never be true.

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If you have ability #2, don't you also necessarily have ability #1?

 

Of course not! Pretend that there is a raw blue-toned cent on the market. Would you rather (1) know that a TPG will slab it as PR65 even though you have no idea about the genuiness of the toning, or (2) know that the toning is fake (or real) even though you have no idea whether a TPG will slab it?

 

We can ask the same question with respect to grading. It's just harder to see the distinction in terms of grading because we let TPGs set the standard. That's why a pretty AU passes as MS. Do you want the ability to be able to tell that the coin is circulated. Or, instead, do you want the ability to know that a TPG will slab it as a 63?

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If you have ability #2, don't you also necessarily have ability #1?

 

Of course not! Pretend that there is a raw blue-toned cent on the market. Would you rather (1) know that a TPG will slab it as PR65 even though you have no idea about the genuiness of the toning, or (2) know that the toning is fake (or real) even though you have no idea whether a TPG will slab it?

 

We can ask the same question with respect to grading. It's just harder to see the distinction in terms of grading because we let TPGs set the standard. That's why a pretty AU passes as MS. Do you want the ability to be able to tell that the coin is circulated. Or, instead, do you want the ability to know that a TPG will slab it as a 63?

Lou, I still believe that if you have "the ability to assess accurately the condition of coins across all series", it follows that you have "the ability to predict without fail the grade that any third-party grader will assign to any coin.

 

Allow me ask you and James this question: Other than being granted a wish by a genie, how can you know how a grading company will grade coins (whether it be accurately or not), if you don't know how to grade them?

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Allow me ask you and James this question: Other than being granted a wish by a genie, how can you know how a grading company will grade coins (whether it be accurately or not), if you don't know how to grade them?

 

Easy. Let's say that Joe Novice looks at 100 coins that are nearly identical. Joe sees that the grading company has called all these coins either 62 or 63. You hand Joe another coin that is virtually indistinguishable from the others. Joe looks at the coin and calls it a 62 or 63.

 

You might say, "Well, Joe taught himself how to grade that coin within that range." But he didn't, really, because all the coins are circulated. Joe doesn't know how to evaluate a coin. What he can do, though, is predict the grade that a TPG will assign to it.

 

So, Mark, which ability is more important to you?

 

Edited to add: And Numismaticles is a deity, not a genie. makepoint.gif

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Basically, because the number a TPG puts on the lable has absolutely nothing to do with the actual grade. It has to do with what they think it will sell for.
Which, If I am not mistaken ,Is exactly what Mr Sheldon was doing. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif
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Lou, are you saying that someone hypothetically might be able to say that a coin will grade a 62 or a 63 at a TPG without understanding why it does? And without realizing that the coin is technically AU but might be graded MS anyways?

 

That's what I am interpreting, at least. It is confusing.

 

-Amanda

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belushi.jpg

I put a call directly into Numismaticles, the Greek God you spoke of, all he said was..."Toga, Toga, Toga"

 

Then he asked if I had any "Grey Pupon" confused-smiley-013.gif

 

He also pointed to the first choice on the survey and giggled...then to ominously pointed to the second choice and asked in a loud booming voice, "Who's been treading on my Divine Powers?"

 

Oh-oh...the Coin Gods are angry!

 

What would be a good sacrifice?

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Allow me ask you and James this question: Other than being granted a wish by a genie, how can you know how a grading company will grade coins (whether it be accurately or not), if you don't know how to grade them?

 

Easy. Let's say that Joe Novice looks at 100 coins that are nearly identical. Joe sees that the grading company has called all these coins either 62 or 63. You hand Joe another coin that is virtually indistinguishable from the others. Joe looks at the coin and calls it a 62 or 63.

 

You might say, "Well, Joe taught himself how to grade that coin within that range." But he didn't, really, because all the coins are circulated. Joe doesn't know how to evaluate a coin. What he can do, though, is predict the grade that a TPG will assign to it.

 

So, Mark, which ability is more important to you?

Lou, feel free to call me stubborn, PLEASE makepoint.gif But, if "Joe" has taught himself to be able to predict the precise grades that will be assigned by a grading company each time, he has, by default, also acquired the requisite ability of consistency (even if it be consistent inaccuracy). Once you have that, you have the ability to grade accurately - all you need to do is tweak your scale up or down to make it coincide with the desired standard/scale.

 

I will await further enjoyable debate before I even consider answering the original question. devil.gif

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. . . he has, by default, also acquired the requisite ability of consistency (even if it be consistent inaccuracy). Once you have that, you have the ability to grade accurately - all you need to do is tweak your scale up or down to make it coincide with the desired standard/scale.)

 

C'mon, Mark. Being consistently wrong is not a solution to the problem. I'm really not trying to be abstruse here, and I can't see how you could misunderstand if you've read all my posts in this thread.

 

Would you say that a person who can accurately predict the grade that AGC assigns must also possess the ability to assess accurately the condition of coins? Did you read my example about the blue IHC a few posts up? Do you really think that we should judge our ability to grade based on what a TPG says? Being able to accurately assess a coin's condition has nothing to do with being able to predict the grade that a TPG will assign to it.

 

I've got to head out to an evening meeting. I hope you find time to respond before I return.

 

I would prefer to to be gifted with #1. Then I could start my own grading company.

 

I had the same thought when I wrote the question. cool.gif

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It's impossible to predict what grade any grading service will give any coin because you can submit the same coin numerous times to the same grading service and get different grades back. This would only work if you could predict the future.

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I think everyone is missing Lou's point. You would be given one of the two "gifts" by the gods. You can't have both.

 

NOTE TO LOU: Great minds think alike!

 

Chris

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