Three of the Most Overpriced Coins in my Opinion

[dragon]

I think that since the advent of 3rd party grading and pop. reports, many coins that were once believed to be very scarce in certain grades or in any grade are now known to be far more available than once thought.

 

Three 'key' coins that I feel are significantly overpriced vs. their pop. and relative availablity are:

 

1) High Relief Saint

 

2) 1909-S VDB

 

3) 1893-CC Morgan

 

Look at the total PCGS/NGC pops. on these coins in all MS as well as circulated grades and see if you agree that they are not nearly as scarce as their market prices would indicate. Popularity should play some roll in a coins pricing, but I think these three coins are way overpriced regardless in most grades.

 

 

What are some coins that YOU think are way overpriced relative to their pops. and vs. other coins that are much tougher to locate and yet far less expensive??

 

dragon

 

 

[keithdagen]

Add the 1916-D Mercury Dime to that list. Around $600 for a Good-04 example. When's the last time you've NOT seen half a dozen on E-bay or Teletrade?

[TomB]

The first two coins I thought of were the '16-D Merc in AG/G and the '09-S VDB Lincoln in MS!

[keithdagen]

The first two coins I thought of were the '16-D Merc in AG/G and the '09-S VDB Lincoln in MS!

 

It's obvious then that this thread is a collection of great minds.

[Tradedollarnut]

1856 flying eagle cents

[goose3]

1856 flying eagle cents

 

Careful!!!!!!!!!!!!

[barberlover-migration]

i posted an answer to this on the other forum but i'll repeat it here; the 1859 indian cent in all mint state grades is way over priced and very common.

 

also the 1932 d washington quarter in the grade of mint state 64 with a combined pcgs/ngc pop. of around 500 coins is selling for between 4-5 k

 

and as i said on the other forum, by poulation the 16 d mercury would fit in this catagory in all grades, except that most collectors want one. the 16 d merc is a supply -vs- demand rarity,

[Elcontador]

Add 1883 & 1884 CC Morgans in 5, but not to the extreme of the others. I'm not complaining, I have two of them, but there are I think 6,000 + available, not to mention the many coins in higher grades.

[Nysoto]

I do not believe any of the key dates are overpriced, such as 1909-S VDB cent and 1916-D merc. Key date prices are not determined by mintage, rarity, or population, they are determined by the quantity of collectors of that particular series who desire to complete their collection. An example is the 1802 half dollar (29,800 mintage, 201-500 survivors), the 1802 half is price less than the 1916-D merc, this does not make sense if examined only in terms of surviving population. How many merc collectors want a complete set? How many draped bust, heraldic eagle half dollar collectors want a complete date set? A huge difference in demand. Why do the 1796 and 1797 half dollars sell for $30,000+ in VF? It is the rarest of all US silver type, the huge number of type collectors will never complete their set until they buy one.

 

Lots of collector demand for the 1909-S VDB and 1916-D mercs from people wanting to complete their sets, if they were overpriced, prices will drop in the future, this won't be the case with these well-established key dates.

 

Which coins are overpriced? "Grade rarities" whose population at that grade will increase over time, and they are not classics. I am not bashing moderns because I also collect them.

[TomB]

I agree with your reasoning, Nysoto, and my response implied the demand part of the equation as defining the price. Hence, they cannot be overpriced. However, as an opinion, and that is what the thread was asking for, I stand by my picks as I think others would stand by theirs.

[pmh1nic]

I'd add the 1995-W SAE.

 

It's interesting that many of the coins mentioned are offered, go unsold but continued to be offered at prices that I think are exorbitant.

[michael]

yes it is all about demand and all of the coins listed as per the above

 

09s vdb 16 d merc hi relief 56 flyer 93 cc morgan

1995 w sae 32 d wash.

 

also to me are way overpriced coins now maybe certian grades are rare and not overpriced

 

but these are more exceptions rather than the rule

like a monster ms67 fb 1916 d merc. comes to mind

 

but i think the above coins as many have mentioned on here are truly overpriced and currently in the market there are coins you can buy and collect that are underpriced and scarcer coins

 

ALSO the ultimate overpriced coins are all the moderns in plastic graded holders that

if cracked out lose A HUGE AMOUNT OF THEIR VALUE/LIQUIDITY

 

and within the up and coming few years there will be hell to pay but again i have seen this so many times in the coin game it is really nothing new

many will lose their [!@#%^&^] and there will be a nashing and grinding of teeth but life and the coin game goes on

 

sincerely michael

[gmarguli]

Obviously, as has been stated, price is a function of supply/demand. Therefore, if the coin market is an efficient market, nothing is overpriced. I just paid 30X sheet on a coin because of the color. Is it overpriced?

 

However, assuming price v. what we think it should be, then my list would be:

 

Practically every MS/PF 68 coin. I'm sorry, but to pay 10X or 20X MS/PF 67 price for a TINY quality difference is insane.

 

EVERY MS/PF 70 coin.

 

Most slabbed moderns.

 

Most key dates that are as common as dirt (09s-VDB, 16-D, etc). High demand, yes. Rare, no. People want one because they are "rare", but they really aren't.

 

 

[dragon]

Wow, I think I left one off of my list that should definately be there IMO.

 

4) 1895 Proof Morgan

 

The 1895 is no rarer in proof than most any other date proof Morgan, but because there are no business strike 1895-P dollars in existence this date trades at a HUGE premium in every grade across the board. The rationale is that many collectors will use an 1895 proof coin to replace the 1895 business strike coin in their MS set, therefore putting extreme pressure on this date in proof.

 

I know quite a few very serious Morgan dollar collectors, some even have world class sets in various stages of completion, and not a single one of them (to my knowledge) would even consider buying a proof 1895 for their MS sets as a substitute for the non-existent 1895-P business strike coin.

 

dragon

[cladking]

As has been pointed out many times, it is interesting that all bashing of coins is modern bashing, and bashing by non-modern collectors. And as I've so often asked, if so few classic collectors think moderns are a good value then what's going to trip them up? It may be like the health fanatic who reaches a ripe old age and has to die of nothing.

[michael]

kind of like the huge sellers and promoters of slabbed high grade modern coins on the other boards and then they totally buy and collect something else all together

 

if they are so into moderns then why dont they put their money where their mouth is so to speak?

 

and in reality there is no modern bashing it is a no brainer

 

what the problem is the slabbed plastic holders that hold such coins where if the modern coins most all of them were broken out of their respective holders their value would plummet hugely immensively and so with their demand

 

i do not think there are any modern bashers on the boards

 

not modern coins per say just those modern coins in slabbed plastic holders thast create 80% 90%95% if not more of the coins value

 

 

sincerely michael

 

 

[michael]

i think coins are great all coins

 

WHAT IS NOT GREAT ARE SLABBED ultra HIGH GRADE MODERN COINS THAT IF BROKEN OUT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE SLABS lose most all of their slabbed market prices and liquidity

 

let me ask you this how much is a slabbed sac dollar worth in a pcgs ms69 holder? and how much would you get offered for the coin if you cracked it out of its holder and walked the bourse at long beach and got offers from modern dealers for such a coin?

 

sincerely michael

[cladking]

Modern collectors are told that they are crazy, they are called fools, they are told that the wortless [!@#%^&^] they collect will soon trade at prices which reflect it's true value. This is a huge improvement really from a few months ago, so I certainly don't want to come off as complaining mind you. Take my word on it, it is most assuredly bashing and it goes only one way. Not that classics are beyond reproach, just that there are no modern collectors who see any value in slamming classics. So what's the difference; it's probably a multitude of factors and each basher has his own reasons, but largely it boils down to the simple fact that most collectors have been selling these coins short for decades. They sell them short by ignoring them. They've sold them short by assuring the few who did bother with them that no one would ever collect clad [!@#%^&^]. Then when these coins started actually getting noticed, they felt they needed to sell them short by slamming them. Now that the coins are increasing in value they sell them short by predicting their imminent demise. Funny thing about prognostication is that they may be right. Nobody knows what the future holds so most any prediction may come true.

 

Those who look at this dispassionately, using trends and logic rather than past pricing tend to believe the coins are going to continue to experience increasing demand.

 

One thing is certain: We're all in this together whether all of us are willing to admit it or not. The most likely cause of a collapse in moderns is the exodus of the next generation of collectors from the hobby.

 

 

[braddick]

Ok, who stole Michael's password and is now writing in his name?!

 

Michael- where's your tolerance?

It's all about the love for the coin.

You know, same team... all that stuff.

 

But, you make an excellent point, or two. It's one reason I just couldn't be a Dealer. I don't want to have to give up collecting what I do and I'm afraid I'd have to if I wanted to be successful!

 

 

[ksteelheader]

I see a coin as being overpriced only if someone isn't buying it. If its selling at what someone else sees as overpriced, then it isn't really overpriced......Ken

[Chippewa]

I am not so sure about the high relief Saints. The populations are probably inflated by multiple regrades and there are a lot of people who would buy this coin if they could only have one coin.

[BillJones]

Demand is BY FAR the more important element in the supply/demand function that sets prices. Yes, from a supply perspective the 1895-P dollar and the 1907 High Relief Saint would appear to be over priced. BUT from a collector demand perspective they are very desirable coins that most collectors can only dream of owning. Despite their relatively large populations, there are stil not enough of them to go around.

 

I have bought and sold Choice Mint State examples of the silver three cent pieces from the late 1860s and early 1870s. Those coins are FAR RARER than many of the key date coins, yet all I could get for those coins was a bit over $1,000.00 apiece. Why? Although those coins are rare, far fewer collectors want them, and just over a grand is all they are currently worth.

 

Will this situation ever change? Probably not. In coins quite often bigger is better, and high denomination coins, which are also physically large, tend to bring higher prices than smaller coins.

[BillJones]

Michael- where's your tolerance?

It's all about the love for the coin.

You know, same team... all that stuff.

 

This issue has nothing to do with tolerance. The issue is that many of us believe that those who are buying modern coins in very high grade PCGS holders are purchasing something other than just the coin. They are buying a slot on a Registry as much as and perhaps more than anything else.

 

Michael's point about the coin in and out of a specific holder is absolutely valid. The same thing applies to classic coins as well. Once a coin has gotten into a certain holder, even if many collectors and dealers disagree with the given the grade, it will sell for a premium. The trouble of with these modern coins is that the difference between MS-65 and MS-68 ranges from virtually face value to in some cases a few thousand dollars.

[IrishMike]

Not to say that some of the classic coins that are coveted like the 09svdb, 16d merc, 93s morgan aren't necessarily rare I would argue they aren't overpriced because of ongoing demand for them and their longevity as popular coins. Buyers and sellers are aware of their significance to the collector community at large. Ergo you have an informed buyer and seller and the coin is worth the transaction price.

 

The instantly made 70's that come out of proof sets that are primarily purchased for registry bragging rights are imnsho are vastly overpriced. The prices fall over time, the grade seems to be a moving target at PCGS, NGC seems to make them far easier than PCGS and the collector base is limited to registry participants, who seem to grow tired of their collections of high grade moderns more quickly than other collectors once the set is filled. Reminds me of the rat race of coin collecting i.e. coins are collected for the plastic and not the love of the coin.

 

I will still argue that this type of buyer is not fully informed, i.e instead of gobbling these coins up to be the first to add them to a set for the bragging rights, they should temper their enthusiasm and let the market settle. Whether they have money to burn is beside the issue.

[cladking]

BillJones: NGC has yet to grade an MS-65 or higher '69 quarter. What is the relative value of of an MS-65 and an MS-68 for this coin? There are no blanket statements about moderns which have been found to be true yet. It's difficult to even get two people to agree on what a modern is.

 

There are also no statements which have been found to be true about all modern collectors. Believing that buyers of coins in PCGS holders is a plastic decision does not make the buyers of these coins any less interested in art, history, metallurgy, statistics, completeness, or quality.

 

 

 

 

 

addressed

[carterhaines-migration]

I personally feel that the 1955 Double Die Obverse (the most well known one) is one of the most overpriced coins. To come to this conclusion, I did not compare the population to the population of other regular coins; but instead to the population of other DDO's. This is actually one of the most common DDO's there is, plus it has a decent supply on ebay, yet it continues to sell much higher than most other DDO's that have much lower known populations.

[bigjim-migration]

...and the collector base is limited to registry participants, who seem to grow tired of their collections of high grade moderns more quickly than other collectors once the set is filled.

 

This is really an unfair assessment.

 

Let's just take one situation as a 'for instance': the person who got interested in coins because of the SBA dollars. A proof collector can fill out the entire series with only six coins, and that figure of six includes the Type II's from 1979 and 1981. Higher grades are still available.

 

That person is no less "interested" when the set is full. Don't forget that a collector is not a dealer. Unless he is swapping for a higher grade, he's just no longer active in that particular market until one of the rarer varieties shows up for sale. And It is conceivable that he'll wait for a long, long time for a 1980-S SonS to show up. While he's waiting he'll start on another series that provides a reasonable potential for filling, even on as as-you-go basis, like the state quarters or the Sacs.

 

As this person continues with his collecting, he will automatically migrate to the more classic coins. This doesn't mean the person who collects this new stuff is less interested or less informed. It means he's collecting what he feels gives him a chance at fulfillment. Who wants to start out collecting something he might never be able to complete in what's left of his lifetime. There's no fun in that.

 

If the new collector, over a period of time, finds he is truly in love with coins, he will stick around and be active in other areas.

 

[IrishMike]

Jim, sorry I think it is a very fair statement. You are correct they often sell their sets and move on to more "classic" coinage. One of the reasons might be they have have burned on the original money they spent and are now more informed.

 

I wasn't bashing registry collectors or the registry, just pointing out that many of them jump right on the first made 70 and end up paying way more for it than they receive when they sell. That is the theme of this thread, "overpriced coins".

[BillJones]

BillJones: NGC has yet to grade an MS-65 or higher '69 quarter. What is the relative value of of an MS-65 and an MS-68 for this coin?

 

Sorry, Clad, but when it comes to ultra high grade modern coins, PCGS has got a lock on the high priced coins. If NGC ever did slab an MS-68 1969 quarter, the noise from the snores from across the street in PCGS land would be loud enough to wake the dead. The only thing that would break the spell would be if one of them could cross it to a PCGS slab, then it would not be an NGC coin any more.

[cladking]

I'm just incredulous. Is this thing working? Hello!