Where is this market going?

[RoelSports]

Sometimes you just have to sit back and observe a super heated market and try to figure out the dynamics behind it's rise. Are we in the middle of a huge surge, or are we at the top. Auction prices are bring in higher and higher prices on true condition and scarcity issues. So, what say you folks..are we at the middle or top of this market? Thanx..scr

[Excaliber]

I hope we are at the top for a little while, maybe a small correction would be nice, i have delayed adding another area of collecting due to the extremely high prices. I think it may be a while before i venture into any more set building, knowing my luck we are at the beginning and the market will double soon!

[RoelSports]

That is the angst we all are having..I don't want to be left behind...scr

[truthteller]

Unlike past markets, the huge uptick in rare US coins is driven by foreign as well as US dynamics. US collectibles that are RARE and not common, will be increasing in value. One major factor is the value of the US$. No longer is the US$ considered the ultimate currency, but rather another fiat currency backed by a nation which no longer is a money lender, but a money borrower. Gold/Silver and RARE collectibles are a universal currency and can be bought/sold worldwide. Many rare US collectibles are held by foreign buyers. They have been leaving the country for about 5 years. As long as there is worldwide demand for ANYTHING that holds value against currency, then the value will increase when the currency loses purchasing power. If you haven't bought into the RARE coin market, then you missed the boat. Remember, RARE means you cannot go into any local coins store and buy it.

 

 

TRUTH

[McKinley-migration]

this IS the correction... this past week or so that is

 

we'll see $15/$740 any day now.... and it'll only go higher. this fall especially.

as for rare coins... they never go down, they're never a bad investment. they just move slower than bullion.

 

from today until the end of 2008 things will be chaotic... bush is a , and this country is a mess.. which is what basically drives everything.

 

and people are waking up.. we'll never see $5 silver or $400 gold again. not even close.

 

ttttttttttttttttthhhat's what i think.

[Bruceswar]

this IS the correction... this past week or so that is

 

we'll see $15/$740 any day now.... and it'll only go higher. this fall especially.

as for rare coins... they never go down, they're never a bad investment. they just move slower than bullion.

 

from today until the end of 2008 things will be chaotic... bush is a , and this country is a mess.. which is what basically drives everything.

 

and people are waking up.. we'll never see $5 silver or $400 gold again. not even close.

 

ttttttttttttttttthhhat's what i think.

 

Tell people that coins are never a bad investment when you are going after top pop coins... I have seen some quarters go from selling got 2000 to selling for 800 now

[McKinley-migration]

well top pop is a whole other animal... a whole world of they're own.

 

and if they're relatively modern, they're damn risky.... putting $xxxx into a top pop state quarter is assinine if you ask me. all it takes is a 'hoard' (which may be at a BANK) of gems to screw that up...

 

to go from 2000 to 800 means more were 'discovered' and if that potential is there, you should think hard before you cut the check...

 

and by rare coins i meant proven rarities.... 77 indian, etc,............

[Bruceswar]

well top pop is a whole other animal... a whole world of they're own.

 

and if they're relatively modern, they're damn risky.... putting $xxxx into a top pop state quarter is assinine if you ask me. all it takes is a 'hoard' (which may be at a BANK) of gems to screw that up...

 

to go from 2000 to 800 means more were 'discovered' and if that potential is there, you should think hard before you cut the check...

 

and by rare coins i meant proven rarities.... 77 indian, etc,............

I 100% agree, which is why I am not buying any slabbed MS67 Washington QTRS from 1932 to 1964 D.... Prices keep coming down.

[McKinley-migration]

old school dealers don't look through bullion bags, and dont care to cherrypick original rolls... you'd be floored if you saw the stash of higher grade coins i've picked out of just simple $face bags of silver. with all this attention on everything these days it doesnt suprise me that more are coming out of the woodwork from this 'new generation'

 

but anyway, what was i going to say... oh yeah, COPPER - around $3.80 a pound - which means $1.53 worth of pre '82 pennies are now worth around 2.5 cents each..... i don't know what everyone else is doing, but i'm saving these things..... i'm not old enough to remember what happened in the mid 60's with silver but i imagine this is similiar.... someday we'll be trading copper cents like we trade silver now i reckon..... just between me n you of course

 

hell nickel is worth considering.... even aluminum is bumping up rapidly. what is going on these days................

 

(i just got a kennedy in change from the store and she handed it over like she gave me a treasure)

[truthteller]

Modern pop tops are not RARE, will never be RARE, and more likely the buyers for that stuff will eventually be RARE. The smart buyers are not buying moderns, the market is too thin, and the TPGs are the only ones who can make a $5 modern into a $2000 modern. Eventually, there will be many coin dealers going to jail or being sued when the modern rarities are worth on the dollar.

 

 

 

TRUTH

[McKinley-migration]

i saw a ms 69 2001 D dime go for $1600 a few weeks ago.... i couldn't believe my eyes. i know 69 is up there, but jesus.... jawdroppin

 

maybe it's a tough date in that grade, but holy god allmighty... i probably have 3 of them in the change dish - all i need to do is submit them

[cladking]

Modern pop tops are not RARE, will never be RARE, and more likely the buyers for that stuff will eventually be RARE. The smart buyers are not buying moderns, the market is too thin, and the TPGs are the only ones who can make a $5 modern into a $2000 modern. Eventually, there will be many coin dealers going to jail or being sued when the modern rarities are worth on the dollar.

TRUTH

 

OK, now I understand. When modern prices are going up it's a speculative bubble. When "rare" coin prices go up it's a market recognition of real value. There can be no speculation in rare coins because everyone is buying them. And just in case anyone is still sellinfg moderns then they belong in jail because they're all common.

 

I finally see the light.

[michael]

 

how many proof ms 70 pcgs modern coins are you buying??

 

if none then put up or shut up

[truthteller]

Modern pop tops are not RARE, will never be RARE, and more likely the buyers for that stuff will eventually be RARE. The smart buyers are not buying moderns, the market is too thin, and the TPGs are the only ones who can make a $5 modern into a $2000 modern. Eventually, there will be many coin dealers going to jail or being sued when the modern rarities are worth on the dollar.

TRUTH

 

OK, now I understand. When modern prices are going up it's a speculative bubble. When "rare" coin prices go up it's a market recognition of real value. There can be no speculation in rare coins because everyone is buying them. And just in case anyone is still sellinfg moderns then they belong in jail because they're all common.

 

I finally see the light.

 

Praise the Lord. I knew you would finally understand.

 

 

TRUTH

[EZ_E]

Unlike past markets, the huge uptick in rare US coins is driven by foreign as well as US dynamics. US collectibles that are RARE and not common, will be increasing in value. One major factor is the value of the US$. No longer is the US$ considered the ultimate currency, but rather another fiat currency backed by a nation which no longer is a money lender, but a money borrower. Gold/Silver and RARE collectibles are a universal currency and can be bought/sold worldwide. Many rare US collectibles are held by foreign buyers. They have been leaving the country for about 5 years. As long as there is worldwide demand for ANYTHING that holds value against currency, then the value will increase when the currency loses purchasing power. If you haven't bought into the RARE coin market, then you missed the boat. Remember, RARE means you cannot go into any local coins store and buy it.

 

 

TRUTH

 

Outstanding post! I believe that is the truth , the whole truth and nothing but the truth .

 

I was actually going to post something along these lines but you beat me to it and laid it on the line much more clearly than I could have done.

 

I believe that scarce, problem-free US coinage will be a great hedge against inflation that will soon bombard our nation.

 

Historically, rare coins have done well during times of recessions and depressions.

 

So, I would advise to hang on to your collections. It is a much safer bet than money in the bank.

 

Pay off you debts and hold on to your nice, problem-free coins because they will always be in demand.

 

Modern pop tops are not RARE, will never be RARE, and more likely the buyers for that stuff will eventually be RARE. The smart buyers are not buying moderns, the market is too thin, and the TPGs are the only ones who can make a $5 modern into a $2000 modern.

 

Great point. I believe that low mintage, classic coinage will see substantial increases. But modern coinage with a population in the hundreds of millions will loose its appeal and will not maintain such high prices, even for pop tops.

 

This is not a dig at moderns but I would be very nervous at having thousands of dollars tied up in mere plastic alone. I don't think that the present modern market will stand the test of time.

 

I think that now is the time to get out of any substantial investment in this modern pop top market and reinvest it into areas of the coin market that still has not seen substantial price increases, i.e. 19th century proofs vs. Draped Bust Dollars.

[cladking]

[q]Great point. I believe that low mintage, classic coinage will see substantial increases. But modern coinage with a population in the hundreds of millions will loose its appeal and will not maintain such high prices, even for pop tops.

 

This is not a dig at moderns but I would be very nervous at having thousands of dollars tied up in mere plastic alone. I don't think that the present modern market will stand the test of time.

 

I think that now is the time to get out of any substantial investment in this modern pop top market and reinvest it into areas of the coin market that still has not seen substantial price increases, i.e. 19th century proofs vs. Draped Bust Dollars. [/q]

 

There are many hundreds of thousands of long time collectors. There are a few million returning baby boomers and tens of thousands of speculators and investors. Every one of them is not only buying rare old coins but are advising everyone to buy rare old coins. When moderns are mentioned it is usually just to point out one the the ways that a fool can be separated from his money.

 

So obviously speculators should go with the flow and put their cash into rare old coins that have withstood the test of time. These can only go up and returns on investment should continue to be high forever. But where should collectors invest their hard earned time? No where in numismatics can a newbie acquire more important US coins at a lower price. There are even important coins in circulation available for face value. Generally grading is far less important in modern collecting than with classics because the coins are exactly what they appear to be. One can even stick with coins still in the original packaging.

 

But beyond all this is the simple fact that the moderns are fun and are the area that's attracting large numbers of new and younger collectors to the hobby. This is the reason that the moderns will do well; these collectors are the future of the hobby. All the demographics of rare old coin collectors are getting up in age. Long term collectors are in their '60's and returning collectors are in their mid'50's. The speculators are a more diverse group but also tend to be older. While the boomer generation is unlikely to behave quite like their predecessors in retirement it is typical for collectors to sell their collections when they retire. Even if they don't sell then it is to be expected that their purchases will slow.

 

If I knew nothing about these markets and someone suggested to me that one side of it is heavily promoted and all of its participants believed it was solid as a rock, that speculators and investors flock to it, and most of the participants were older while the modern side is denigrated, populated by younger people, and continually has price increases that no one can explain, then it becomes very simple to figure where the real risk lies.

 

So collect what interests you and you'll avoid the excesses of whatever market you're in.

[EZ_E]

I was hoping that you'd provide input on my comments, Cladking. You always provide a balance when discussing moderns.

 

I whole-heartedly agree that the state quarter program, ASE's, etc are attracting many new collectors into the hobby. I'm all for it. I have a decent modern collection as well.

 

I think that collecting nice BU coins in an album is the better way to go when collecting modern coinage. One gets the satisfaction of completing a set at a very reasonable price. One should still be selective in choosing their coins, however, and should not settle for sliders or beat up coins.

 

But, my main point is not to discourage modern collecting but to be wary of paying an enormous premium for a slabbed, pop top coin.

[cladking]

I was hoping that you'd provide input on my comments, Cladking. You always provide a balance when discussing moderns.

 

I whole-heartedly agree that the state quarter program, ASE's, etc are attracting many new collectors into the hobby. I'm all for it. I have a decent modern collection as well.

 

I think that collecting nice BU coins in an album is the better way to go when collecting modern coinage. One gets the satisfaction of completing a set at a very reasonable price. One should still be selective in choosing their coins, however, and should not settle for sliders or beat up coins.

 

But, my main point is not to discourage modern collecting but to be wary of paying an enormous premium for a slabbed, pop top coin.

 

I rarely get a chance to say it but I generally agree that it's unwise to pay huge premiums for small increments of grade in moderns (or any coins). This is not to say that collectors generally shouldn't do it, just that it may prove difficult to get one's money back unless the trends to collecting coins in the highest grades remains in place. There can be other reasons to tread softly in these areas such as in some cases the coins are actually quite common and prices are likely to adjust downward. It's not impossible for common coins to exist in hordes. There's no real danger of large numbers of MS-68 1979 one cent coins appearing but there is at least a small danger of a substantial horde of '79-S PR-69's

appearing. While grading dangers are generally greatly overblown there is some danger in this area as well. While the finest will always be the finest, it could go by a different name at some point. This could be detrimental to some of the coins that are not the finest.

 

But the simple fact is that there are lots of really great moderns that are difficult to find and a lot of fun to collect. This challenge is even present if one sticks to the regular issues which most people deem common. These can not only be tough in nice attractive unc but even in nice attractive VF. If you include varieties, proofs, and special issues then sets can become huge and require tremendous effort and time to finish.

 

One doesn't have to acquire these coins in the highest grades at large premiums. Most can still be found in mint and proof sets at small premiums or in the BU rolls that can be found with some effort. Some of the varieties almost have to be found in circulation because they are rarely offered for sale or are extremely rare.

 

Those who have been assembling sets like this know what coins to snatch up when they appear in holders. I'd really like to believe that it is this which is driving the high end markets. But whatever drives a person to assemble sets of moderns is just as noble (and trivial) as what drives a person to assemble sets of large cents.

[Regis44]

QUOTE: "Those who have been assembling sets like this know what coins to snatch up when they appear in holders. "

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Would you give us new folks 2 or 3 examples?

 

Regis

[EZ_E]

One doesn't have to acquire these coins in the highest grades at large premiums. Most can still be found in mint and proof sets at small premiums or in the BU rolls that can be found with some effort. Some of the varieties almost have to be found in circulation because they are rarely offered for sale or are extremely rare.

 

My sentiments, exactly. Then, if desired, the coins could be sent in for certification if one chooses to participate in the registry.

[cladking]

QUOTE: "Those who have been assembling sets like this know what coins to snatch up when they appear in holders. "

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Would you give us new folks 2 or 3 examples?

 

Regis

 

At the risk of taking this thread off topic;

 

There are great values and scarce coins among the bullion, proof, commems and other moderns but I'm more familiar with mint state regular issues so will confine my comments to them.

 

These coins were the workhorses of commerce and got little interest from people beyond making sure they got the right change until the last few years. There were some specific coins saved for collectors but this involved almost no dimes and no quarters. This is why the entire issue of some varieties and almost all all the gems of some dates went into circulation. Since mint set coins can also be almost entirely poorly made this makes some coins excrutiatingly difficult to find in nice shape. Coins like a nice well struck gem '92-D quarter is very tough. Now there is little demand so finding them isn't impossible by a long sight. Poke through about a hundred '92 mint sets and you'll come up with one. The difficulty is finding all these sets and if you do having the ability and the time to look at them. This is a beautiful and tough coin in MS-66 and most are PL. Many people will have to have a lower grade specimen because of the scarcity of this issue but the typical mint set coin is horribly scratched up and the scarce roll coins are poorly made and scratched. '69 quarters are tough in MS-65 though it gets a little latittude because these almost all have planchet scratches which weren't eradicated in the strike. Any nice clean '69 quarter is quite scarce even in lower grades. The '90-P is another that has extreme amounts of scratching. The '71 can be found fairly clean with effort but is often poorly struck. The '72 comes far nicer on average and MS-65's are almost easy but in the highest grades is nearly as tough as the '71. All of the '87-'95 Denvers have scratches and clean coins are worthy of some attention.

 

As with anything being a good deal is largely a function of price. But if you can get these coins in slabs that are being sold at market price and are nice coins for the grade then I'd have to believe you got a good deal. Of course the coins at the very top of the scale can have their prices affected by more factors and much more care needs to be exercised in acquiring these. Just putting together a nice attractive set will prove difficult and many of these dates will have to be purchased by the typical collector because he probably won't find them in sets and rolls.

 

This applies to most of the varieties as well. There are only a few common varieties and even these will prove almost impossible in choice unc. The scarce and rare varieties are often nor even available in unc or are excessively rare. Only those varieties appearing in mint sets will be "common". My favorite is the '81-P small motto (type "d" reverse). This one appears in about every 175th mint set but will be excessively common in comparison to most other clad quarter varieties.

[Regis44]

Cladking,

That is a very interesting and helpful intro into modern rare coins. I now have interest and a reason to search modern. I 'had' totally discarded the idea until your post.

 

Thank you,

Regis

[michael]

[Houston Investor]

Down! They don't have any money.......

[Oldtrader3]

The only MS70 modern coins that I have are a couple that I bought raw and sent in myself. I am perfectly happy sending modern coins in and getting MS68-69/PF69's back.

 

Personally, I would rather save for a classic coin that I want, instead.

[carson city]

Who knows, who cares, that's the fun of coin collecting---Raymond Waith & R.S. Yeoman