a great report on the current state of the coin market

[michael]

 

· See All NEW ARRIVALS! · View Our Current Inventory · Visit NumisVision.com · Live Precious Metal Prices

Where Do We Go From Here?

 

 

The FMV is jumping off the charts and the most aggressive buyers are acquiring the coins they need. At this point in time the coins most sought after continue to rise with every trade. There are so many competitive dealers and collectors seeking specific coins that it appears some FMVs still have a long way to go. Dealers are truly amazed by some of the prices that these coins will bring in auctions; what we find even more interesting is the number of collectors vying for many of these rarities. In many cases, the dealers cannot even compete with the collectors who are dead set on owning certain coins.

 

We are beginning to see several dealers venture into other areas of the market in an attempt to locate coins they know are rare yet may not be attracting much attention as of now. They foresee the future and the future is obviously in coins with low pops that are early rarities. This does not mean modern issue coins with temporary low census numbers. Many astute numismatists are doing the research that the census reports provide to identify potential hot issues. Since NGC and PCGS have been in business for 20 years now there is a proven track record for the numbers of coins available in the market. Use of these numbers along with original mintages can go a long ways toward identifying future FMV increases.

 

The metals remain on a course to higher ground. Silver seems to be in a leadership role at this time and is surging toward $11 and ounce and is currently at $10.77. Gold has jumped to $565.60, with Platinum rising to $1060.

 

The Santa Clara Expo runs this week with Superior Galleries hosting an Elite Coin Auction.

 

-What's Hot?

Gold Commems – MS63 and Higher

Silver Commems – MS63 and Higher

Barber Coins – MS63 and higher

Early Gold -- $2 ½, $5, & $10 XF & higher

Early Bust Halves & Dollars – Fine and Higher

Battle Creek Dollars – Lovely Toned Morgan’s

Carson City Dollars – Gov’t Holders

Carson City Dollars – NGC Certified

Mercury Dimes – MS64 & up 1916-30

Walkers – 1916 to 1929 MS63 and higher

Indian Cents – Red & Red/Brown MS & Proof

Early Lincoln Cents – Red; MS64 & higher

Key Dates in all series

Walkers – MS64 and higher

Dollars – Morgan & Peace in MS63 and Higher

 

-What's Not?

Modern Commems – Without Govt. package

State Quarters – PR issues under 69 require discounts

[shirohniichan]

This list has to be seriously abbreviated.

 

Barber Coins – MS63 and higher

 

How about unimpaired Barber quarters and halves in VF and higher?

[michael]

i totally agree shiro and there are many coins that are in huge demand and not on this list but it is a start

[shirohniichan]

i totally agree shiro and there are many coins that are in huge demand and not on this list but it is a start

 

I understand they don't want to spend time to dissect the market into dozens of subcategories, but I'd like to see a list that includes coins in conditions not high enough for "investor grade."

 

I used to smile when I read David Hall Rare Coin's market analyses. The only coins worth buying all seemed to be in gem BU (unless there were not enough gem BU coins to go around). The reality is that coins called "hot" in MS63 or higher may actually be hotter in true AU58, but the profit margins and availability may not be there. Why hype something that you don't sell?

[michael]

such is the coin game

[TomB]

It's rather amusing to see coins populating a "What's Hot" list that then populate a "What's Not Hot" list on another dealers site at the same time.

 

This tells you more about the market, and about dealer participation and perception, than any amount of analysis.

[EZ_E]

-What's Hot?

Gold Commems – MS63 and Higher

 

I bought an MS63 PanPac gold commem from Heritage in Nov 2002 for $525. Now it is worth over $900 according to guides.

 

Anyone know of a more realistic price in a PCGS slab?

[michael]

victor in my opinion and this is not my speciality and this isif it is really eye appealing and solid+ for the grade retail where it will sell fast 950