Coin dealer market reports: too cheery to be true

[truthteller]

I was reading a market report from a dealer's website. From the report, they did very well at the ANA SF. I actually talked to them personally, and they told me they had a lousy show. While another dealer had a similar cheery market report, at least the report stated ups and downs of the show which was a bit more factual. Why make up market reports?

 

 

 

TRUTH

[EZ_E]

To keep potential customers optomistic and happy. 'Tis good for business.

[IGWT]

Why make up market reports?

 

Why ask questions you know the answer to?

[braddick]

Why make up market reports?

 

Why ask questions you know the answer to?

[IGWT]

I think Truth's question is rhetorical. The effect of the question, as I read it, is to imply that some dealers continue to report a bull market because it is in their financial interest to do so. The purpose of my quip is to let Truth know that I think the answer is embedded in his question. Am I wrong

[Tradedollarnut]

I know Legend had a great ANA. Attendance was down, but those that were there were in a buying mood.

[CTcollector]

Funny this came up. Personally, I thought the NEWPS coming out of the ANA were weak compared to prior years. When I asked a reputable dealer specifically about the point if the ANA was so good, then where all the nice coins ? The response was, well honestly it wasn't "that good". I'll keep an open mind, it looks like it was mixed depending on the dealer and maybe all the NEWPS aren't listed yet. I just hope that most coins worth buying as an end consumer aren't in for conservation or max outs (up-grades), which might sadly be the case.

[EZ_E]

I just hope that most coins worth buying as an end consumer aren't in for conservation or max outs (up-grades), which might sadly be the case.

 

My three cents worth:

 

Conservation is not necessarily a bad thing. But, of course, if the coin has great eye-appeal with originality to boot, then it shouldn't be tampered with, period! However, I've had NCS conserve some of my coins and they were tremendously improved in the eye-appeal department. Months have passed and they are still just as cherry s/p NCS. If conservation is done properly and neutralized then conservation is not necessarily a dirty word as I infered from your post.

 

But, I am concerned at all of the unnecessary professional and jake-legged dipping of original coins just to try to make the coin "purdier" to make an extra buck. As caretakers of a classic coin, the owner should have the coin's best interest at stake.

[James_OldeTowne]

I just got the latest greysheet. The headline is exactly as follows:

 

ANA FAILS TO MEET EXPECTATIONS

SELECTIVE BUYING ON BOURSE

 

As a side note, I didn't see many minuses, but very few pluses, too, except in Peace dollars, which seem to be showing an upward trend.

 

James

[EZ_E]

James, what are classic commems doing? Remember that they've been quietly hoarded by dealers over the past several months in anticipation of hyping/marketing them?

[James_OldeTowne]

ED_E,

 

Classic commems are rock-stable. The only things that plused - and these are a little weird - are:

 

1938 New Rochelle in MS-65

50 Piece set in MS-63 and MS-65

144 Piece set in MS-63 and MS-65

 

Gold commems show a handful of pluses, but I do not trust the +/- indicators on any gold.

 

There are no minuses at all for any commems.

 

James

[EZ_E]

How is the Pan-Pac gold dollar in ms 63? Got mine in Nov of 2002 for $500. What is a realistic price now?

 

milk, milk, milk

 

[truthteller]

I think Truth's question is rhetorical. The effect of the question, as I read it, is to imply that some dealers continue to report a bull market because it is in their financial interest to do so. The purpose of my quip is to let Truth know that I think the answer is embedded in his question. Am I wrong

 

You are correct in your assumption. The question was to elicit responses. In general, coin dealers are salespeople, most having a broad knowledge of the coin market. However, a gloomy show report is not in their best interests, at least not until their inventory gets depleted.

 

 

 

 

TRUTH

[James_OldeTowne]

The Pan Pac dollar sheets at $685 right now, but realistically, it's a $625 coin. Seems like you are OK!

 

James

[truthteller]

ED_E,

 

Classic commems are rock-stable. The only things that plused - and these are a little weird - are:

 

1938 New Rochelle in MS-65

50 Piece set in MS-63 and MS-65

144 Piece set in MS-63 and MS-65

 

Gold commems show a handful of pluses, but I do not trust the +/- indicators on any gold.

 

There are no minuses at all for any commems.

 

James

 

 

Please note, high end commems in MS66 and MS67 have had scattered minuses on the bluesheet for about 8 months. Meanwhile, MS60-64 commems have have pluses for the last 6 months. You can see an Iowa in MS60 has a $25 price difference up to MS66. Or howabout a Lynchburg in MS60 to MS65, a $40 price difference. Only promotion does that. On a side note, never believe the sheets on gold commems. I used to deal in them. The values are strictly controlled by several dealers who make a market on MS60-64. I have had deals where the sheet values are no where near the actual values, usually much less. Then a promotion takes place for a couple of months raising the sheets, but then the buyers disappear.

 

 

TRUTH

[michael]

 

 

 

EZ_E

The Post-man always rings twice. Uhm... ring ring?

 

 

 

My three cents worth:

 

Conservation is not necessarily a bad thing. But, of course, if the coin has great eye-appeal with originality to boot, then it shouldn't be tampered with, period! However, I've had NCS conserve some of my coins and they were tremendously improved in the eye-appeal department. Months have passed and they are still just as cherry s/p NCS. If conservation is done properly and neutralized then conservation is not necessarily a dirty word as I infered from your post.

 

[bigd5]

I'm not sure why the market reports wouldn't be accurate, but the few dealers that I have spoken with that set up at the ANA in S.F. found the show to be "so-so" with one commenting "a complete disaster".

 

Most of them simply shrugged their shoulders and had the attitude of it was something they had to do. Very few new coins came back from this show, again, with the dealers I visited that had set up.

 

I'll get more feedback after this Sunday's show.

[Morgannut]

The ANA was a big money loser for everyone but the highest-end coin speciality dealers, based on a number of dealers I just spoke to at the Baltimore Show. While the market is saturated with "stuff" right now, I don't think this relects one way or the other what the coin market will do--it just shows SF is a poor town for coins and the ANA could care less about the bourse part of their meeting. No one who is after "collector grade" material (the backbone of the ANA) is ever going to pay $200 a night plus, $45/day parking, plus rental car, plus airfare to buy $700 in nice circulated coins. Good planning ANA!!!

[Oldtrader3]

I think that Morgannut has hit the essential ingredients of the poor showing at the ANA. San Francisco is too expensive and too much hassle to get there for the average collector.