Wednesday and Thursday at the ANA SF.

[truthteller]

I started my car trip Tuesday at 12PM and decided to hit a coin shop on the way up. Stopped in Monterey, Ca and bought a few Mexico coins and US currency. Very pretty drive along the way. The CA coast is quite pretty, with a slight overcast . I arrived at the hotel on Tuesday night in Sunnyvale, CA, which is about 30 miles south of SF. The room was cheap compared to $200 a night at the SF Hilton or Hyatt. Early Wednesday, I drove into SF. I refused to pay $21 for parking at the city parking lot or $24 in the Moscone Center, so I found a lot for $10 all day on the corner of Howard and 5th streets, only 2 blocks from the convention center. I arrrived in time for the opening bell, wih a registration wait of about 20 minutes and 100 people in line. I received an elongated CA statehood quarter with the ANA PNG logo embossed on one side, very cool. I also received a special Jefferson nickel as a ANA gift. This year the ANA was on two levels. The main bourse and coin action was on the first floor, while all the exhibits, lot viewing, forums and most of the world mints were located on the second floor. The floorplan of the exhibits was quite nice, and I picked up a couple of Thai mints sets.The US mint had very nice displays and exhibits. The bourse was quite busy from opening bell to about 3PM, and I spent most of the day looking for nice Mexico with the foreign dealers. Many dealers from overseas were set up as well as walking the floor. I bought several rare date 20th century mexican coins, and was quite pleased. I spent time with about 20 foreign dealers I then ventured to the US section. Most dealers appeared to have the same old stuff. A few colored commems appeared, but the owners were asking MOON money. One dealer had the Shepard '38 Texas set for a TON of money. Larry Shepard has some very nice colored commems as usual, but none that I needed. The bourse was a bit smaller than last year's Pittsburgh ANA, but appeared to be a very good floorplan. Many more dealers were walking the floor, but this was expected from chatting with folks at the Santa Clara preshow. I spent most of my wad of cash in the first 5 hours. Later, I met up with a few friends, then all decided to have dinner at a nice Chinatown restaurant. From the look and feel of the show, it seemed subdued.

 

On Thursday, I again arrived, this time I picked up a couple of coin folks along the way, again parking for $10. The activity of Thursday was lacking, and I had the opportunity to talk to about 30 dealers. The smaller dealers who dealt with raw and lower end slabs were disappointed with the retail turnout. Several complained that their expenses were very high, and they needed a good size crowd to make the show profitable. The larger slab dealers appeared to do OK, but some midsized companies already could see that the show was subpar at BEST, and their retail sales were lacking. Dealer to dealer action appeared OK, but also was a bit lacking. There was a smattering of talk about the Ohio "Coingate". Many folks were agressively offering boxes of slabs from dealer to dealer. Many buyers appeared very fussy.. I brought a few coins to offer, nice colored commems, not high end, but pretty, just to gauge what the market was like. I got several offers at "market", which was greysheet, some "not buying today", and several "not for me". When I offer coins, usually every dealer asks, "How much?" About 50% said they were not interested, and a few dealers said they just had to much inventory. Most dealers wanted only monsters or rarities. . By the 2PM hour, it appeared the show was really slow, and some dreary faces could be seen. A buddy of mine got 50% upgrades on some really nice commems from PCGS. The NGC and PCGS tables did not appear busy, ANACS was giving free verbal grading with NO WAITING. Same with ICG. By the end of Thursday, it appeared the show was not turning out great since the public was lacking. Advertisng on the radio and TV was good, so market conditions or expense of the city may have been a negative factor.

 

I did not view or attend any of the Heritage lots.

 

Overall, I grade the show a C-. I mainly attribute this to lack of public participation. Since SF is an expensive city and since there was no super fresh collections in the Heritage sale, I believe many major buyers just did not wish to travel and pay the high expense. If the results for Friday and Saturday follow the same, I feel there will be a further downturn in the market Money is available, but material is not. An engine without gas cannot run.

 

For me, however, I enjoyed myself thoroughly, and spent time with a few fellow collectors. I controlled my checkbook this ANA, and felt comfortable with my purchases.

 

 

TRUTH

[IGWT]

Thanks very much for the excellent report, Truth! Glad you're enjoying yourself.

 

I feel there will be a further downturn in the market Money is available, but material is not. An engine without gas cannot run.

 

I don't even pretend to understand (forget about predicting) the rare coin market; so, I don't really follow your point in the quoted sentence. It seems that the demand (the available money) would loosen the grip of collectors who are holding nice coins. Why won't the available money bring nice coins into the market?

[CTcollector]

Thanks. Great Report. One thing the OHIO coin scandal exposed is the pervasiveness of the "crack out" game across the industry and how instant value is created and passed on to unsuspecting buyers. The crack out game is not limited to the OHIO scandal, just about every insider or dealer participate in the "grading arbitrage" game. This has to be draining the hobby a little bit as more and more end consumers (collectors) are becoming aware of it. No one wants to be the last one holding maxed out or comercially graded coins when the shell game ends.

 

I passed on the show for this reason. Didn't want to make the trip to the West Coast just to see the same recycled coins I saw last year in higher holders. This is the first ANA I missed in 10 years.

 

PS - I had a dealer friend look at some auction lots for me - I had to pass, they were all dogs.

[cpm9ball]

Good report, Truth , keep them coming.

 

By any chance did you happen to see if Arch was toting a box of live dungeness crabs?

 

Chris

[supertooth]

Truth----Great Report---- I have been telling my email friends for years now that the decent coins were drying up. Why?? Too many collectors looking for the same stuff. It does not matter what you are looking for----somebody else is looking for it too. And, up to about 1940, the mintage figures do not show an adequate accounting of what is actually remaining out there. If you read the literature---about any series----you will find that the numbers are not available for all the people trying for those available coins. Just the other day, Barber halves were talked about in various articles and on the ATS boards as well. Guys complaining that there were too many "new" Barber collectors due to all the publicity that the series has recently gotten. How can they all get complete sets as the coins are not available?? Pure and simply put----THE COINS ARE NOT OUT THERE. So Truth---you are correct. The money is available but the product is not there to be had. So what remains is the "picked over" stuff. And---mark my words---that will be bought up too----just as soon as the prices fit those coins. Why?? Because people still need those coins---but not at the current inflated grade and price levels. The TPGS have been in business about 20 years now. If you add up all the coins graded by NGC, PCGS and ANACS for any given date or mint within any series prior to about 1940---you will find out that there really hasn"t been a lot of coins graded compared to their mintages. A lot of people just figure those coins are still out there. I think that they are wrong. For, if those coins were really there, with the highest prices ever seen for most Numismatic material, those coins would have hit the market place. Heck---why are "type" sets so very popular? Because, if you collect them, you only need one coin out of a whole group of coins. You can pick a "common" date without busting your mortgage payment to acquire the coin. Whereas, if you picked the entire series to collect, you most likely would have no luck finishing it----in an entire lifetime---even if you had all the money that you needed. And for heaven"s sake---if you insist on buying only truly "original" coins---well you have just put yourself into another box. Original coins are getting rarer by the day---for each day that passes some student of the dipping process thinks that he is doing a wonderful job. Unfortunately the coin cannot have a voice in whether it is dipped or not. That depends on its owner at that particular time. Bob [supertooth]

[Die Varieties]

Great info -- keep em coming. Thanks ...

[Oldtrader3]

It is all related to supply and demand. Many dealers have been through this cycle 10 times and still do not understand that soft prices drive down the supply of better material and higher prices actually create more transactions (DUH!!!!!). Sometimes I think that these dealers are totally clueless about supply theory. Limited supply is price dependent (they are not going to make any more Barbers). Barber coins are a good illustration because there are many dates with low populations in grades MS63 and higher. Lower prices limit supply entering the market.

 

I certainly would not sell my Barbers into this market when I can wait awhile and get much more money for my coins.

[Mozin]

Truth,

 

Thanks for the report. We want to hear more, more, more...

[truthteller]

Thanks very much for the excellent report, Truth! Glad you're enjoying yourself.

 

I feel there will be a further downturn in the market Money is available, but material is not. An engine without gas cannot run.

 

I don't even pretend to understand (forget about predicting) the rare coin market; so, I don't really follow your point in the quoted sentence. It seems that the demand (the available money) would loosen the grip of collectors who are holding nice coins. Why won't the available money bring nice coins into the market?

 

In essence, engine=coin buying and selling, fuel=fresh collections. No fuel, no coin buying and selling, people become sad, angry, prone to dispair. . For about 3 years now, great collections and registry sets have come onto the market, so money has appeared in force to buy, buy, buy. Now, most long time collectors that want to sell, have sold with the increased prices. Once the coins find new homes, fewers collections become available for the growing mass of buyers. There comes a point where collectors don't/won't sell, but the buyers are waiting with cash. Again, for fresh new material, not upgrades, recycled, "improved" coins.

 

 

TRUTH

[truthteller]

Good report, Truth , keep them coming.

 

By any chance did you happen to see if Arch was toting a box of live dungeness crabs?

 

Chris

 

 

 

I didn't know Arch was at NGC's table. I think if he saw me, he might have given me a strike for my attire.

 

 

 

TRUTH

[Architecht]

Yeah, what the heck! Ya didn't stop by!

 

BTW, I've actually heard quite a few comments on the show that point in the opposite direction. There have been some record prices realized at auction, I'm told, and I can tell you that NGC at least is quite busy. The runners to the grading room are getting a work out.

 

Of course, I'm not the expert on show reviews - far from it - but there are some pretty happy dealers walking around.

 

Arch

[truthteller]

Yeah, what the heck! Ya didn't stop by!

 

BTW, I've actually heard quite a few comments on the show that point in the opposite direction. There have been some record prices realized at auction, I'm told, and I can tell you that NGC at least is quite busy. The runners to the grading room are getting a work out.

 

Of course, I'm not the expert on show reviews - far from it - but there are some pretty happy dealers walking around.

 

Arch

 

I'm glad to hear NGC was doing nice business. My impressions of the NGC and PCGS booths may have been later in the day, so the submission crowds may have diminished. Howabout a photo of the omniscient Arch?

 

 

 

TRUTH

[TomB]

Terrific report, Truth.

 

I agree that in the last five years that even though some enormous collections and rarities have come to auction that many of the really nice coins that regular or even advanced collectors would like to buy have simply disappeared.

[jom]

... rarities have come to auction that many of the really nice coins that regular or even advanced collectors would like to buy have simply disappeared.

 

One would hope they haven't "disappeared" into the dipping well to get higher grades. Me thinks that is a big possibility....unfortunately.

 

jom

[michael]

Why won't the available money bring nice coins into the market?

 

they are in "strong" hands ....... no need to sell

 

and if you sell nice coins you cant replace them

 

so why sell??

 

great truly scarce coins will only get better

[Morgannut]

Funny I actually had 6 Morgans in Hertiage-very nice original material but probably all correctly graded. All sold. One was very PQ MS64PL and looked a shot at MS65PL--old fingerprint and all---I went for 2 1/2 times Greysheet bid!! If it's not a totally common date, not dipped, is high-end and eye-appealing-- watch the room light up-- and the bidding paddles wave-- when your noisy old rattler goes up for bid!!!!!

 

Great update on the show guys--Thanks!

[EZ_E]

Thanks very much for the excellent report, Truth! Glad you're enjoying yourself.

 

I feel there will be a further downturn in the market Money is available, but material is not. An engine without gas cannot run.

 

I don't even pretend to understand (forget about predicting) the rare coin market; so, I don't really follow your point in the quoted sentence. It seems that the demand (the available money) would loosen the grip of collectors who are holding nice coins. Why won't the available money bring nice coins into the market?

 

 

 

Because those holding the nice coins are still not tempted enough to part with them in an increasing market. I am mainly refering to nice, high end classic coins vs the commem and modern market.

[EZ_E]

Heck---why are "type" sets so very popular? Because, if you collect them, you only need one coin out of a whole group of coins. You can pick a "common" date without busting your mortgage payment to acquire the coin. Whereas, if you picked the entire series to collect, you most likely would have no luck finishing it----in an entire lifetime---even if you had all the money that you needed. And for heaven"s sake---if you insist on buying only truly "original" coins---well you have just put yourself into another box. Original coins are getting rarer by the day---for each day that passes some student of the dipping process thinks that he is doing a wonderful job. Unfortunately the coin cannot have a voice in whether it is dipped or not. That depends on its owner at that particular time.

 

 

Superb quote!!

[EZ_E]

Why won't the available money bring nice coins into the market?

 

they are in "strong" hands ....... no need to sell

 

and if you sell nice coins you cant replace them

 

so why sell??

 

great truly scarce coins will only get better

 

 

 

 

Yeah, what he said!!!

[DirtyGoldMan]

Excellent report! Thank you.