Preliminary ANR aucton observations: not encouraging.

[truthteller]

I monitored the first 300 lots of the ANR auction, territorial gold, patterns and US gold up through early $10 gold. Of the 300 lots, 96 remained unsold, or 32%. Very high unsold rate. US gold is usually a bellweather of the upcoming show and auctions.

 

 

 

TRUTH

[RGT]

You must be using that new math I keep hearing about. In the old days that would come out to 23%.

 

Thanks for the report though and keep them coming.

[truthteller]

Sorry, the post should have read 96 out of 300. My mind was stuck on 69 for some reason.

 

 

TRUTH

[Oldtrader3]

The prices of MS gold coins have increased dramatically in the past (2) years. I am not surprised that the market is taken a small breather. The ANR coins that sold from the LaBelle Collection went for fairly strong money though. Many of the coins that did not sell were lower grade repeats of other coins in the sale. I would love to see gold back off a little. There are several coins that I need to buy.

[IGWT]

Judging by the "prices realized" by Superior, it looks as though a high percentage of lots in its Pre-ANA Santa Clara Auction also did not sell (although I haven't done the math). Five of the six lots that I was watching don't have any "price realized" -- and one of those was a lot on which I placed a pretty strong bid.

 

Perhaps the consignors set unreasonably high reserves

[gmarguli]

I've got two coins in the ANR sale. I'm not too sure what the market is thinking. One of them has yet to receive a bid even though the starting bid is very fair and quite a bit less than the coin should sell for. The other is now over double its starting bid and is priced rather strong.

[truthteller]

The commems got creamed. 30 of 68 did not sell, or 44 %. The ones that did sell, for the most part, sold quite cheaply. An NGC68 Stone Mountain sold for $6K. That kills the value of the other 7, one being offered at $23K, the other at $18K. Surprisingly, the NGC68 New Rochelle did not sell. A few high grade Booker T. Washingtons sold at OK prices.

 

 

TRUTH

[IGWT]

Any speculation among those "in the know" about how the pre-ANA auction results will affect San Fran? Tremors before the quake? (sorry . . . I couldn't resist this metaphor for the action in CA).

[truthteller]

I really don't know if there is going to be a "quake", but a market correction is in motion. If you look at my posts on the market since Feb. Long Beach, you will notice a decrease in market conditions. From Central States to this recent Santa Clara, there is a noticeable volume reduction of public participation at regional and national shows. Furthermore, you have a reduction of really, really nice material hitting the major auctions, with quite a bit of recycled dealer stock and upgrades. I was surprised at the lack of cool material in this Heritage ANA sale. In my opinion, Feb. Long Beach's auction had nicer coins for sale. In addition, dealers who normally buy PQ and high end material from me are hesitant to buy outright, and prefer to have it consigned at REASONABLE levels, meaning close to greysheet. Unfortunately, stiff asking prices won't work anymore, unless the coin is ultra rare or ultra REAL color. Many dealers have a positive attitude going into the show. I do not. My checkbook is closed, unless the "right" coin comes along, and I have a feeling I am no longer in the "privileged" group of buyers. My focus will be on better Mexico, since this area of my collecting has actually gone DOWN in price in the last three years. I'll be on the commem sidelines this ANA, and I have a feeling I won't be alone.

 

 

TRUTH

[IGWT]

Thanks for sharing your insight. It'll be interesting . . . . I've seen some pretty strong internet bidding on a couple of the rarities in the ANA auction (but I'm focused on a very narrow segment of the market).

[Tradedollarnut]

Same old story - neat stuff brings strong prices and so so stuff goes wanting. Lots of people in the auction room, but very little floor action.

 

Prices at B&M for Sweet went real weak - but the nice coins went strong.

[Elcontador]

Of the 3 ANR lots I followed - decided not to bid on any of them - one did not sell, the other brought type money & the third one brought strong money (a nice AU 58 old type coin that will probably find its way into an MS 62 holder). Am passing on the other auctions as well.

 

I took the $ & bought some stock instead.

[Abaco24-migration]

I actually came out ahead on my lot by $700. I thought the pre-auction catalog and questions answered by the staff 6 days out were excellent. I had a good time bidding and went down to the wire, just takes homework. I would work with these guys again. Very professional. I actually pulled a bid with a few hours to go no problem.

[cpm9ball]

You must be using that new math I keep hearing about. In the old days that would come out to 23%.

 

I don't know about the new math but 96 divided by 300 is equal to 32% using the old math.

 

Chris

[Abaco24-migration]

I had a good time

[Morgannut]

After watching the bread and butter material online at 3 auctions it appears that dealers have closed their checkbooks before the ANA bourse. Anything from 22% to 36% no sales is very high in my opinion. I believe any number of dealers might be looking to sell stale inventory, and are in no postion to buy right now (I'm talking Mom and Pop dealer--not Legend)

 

The bidding is truly bizarre--Three very nice but nothing-unique Morgans I have at Heritage were listed as no reserve and are already 15% more than I paid--and that doesn't count the vig.! But 2 original Morgan keys over $5000 bought at 2001 ANA are reserved at the price I paid 4 years ago-- and don't have a bid!!! That's been the pattern at Superior, B/M, and ANR too---

 

This implys to me there is either money pressure on mid-range dealers, or they are going to have a pile of money but no inventory after ANA. If so, the retail sales at ANA could be a turning point for the general market>

 

If bourse sales end way down this might continue to be a "split personality" market, with ultra high end rarities going up, but uncommon material in mid grade over $5-$10K declining. Just my opinion of what I've seen----Hope I'm wrong-

[jom]

Same old story - neat stuff brings strong prices and so so stuff goes wanting.

 

What?!!!! Nice coins going for BIG money and crappy coins going for crappy prices?!!! That is absurd! Ludicris..even! What is the world coming to?

 

jom

[James_OldeTowne]

((( The commems got creamed. 30 of 68 did not sell, or 44 %. The ones that did sell, for the most part, sold quite cheaply. An NGC68 Stone Mountain sold for $6K. That kills the value of the other 7, one being offered at $23K, the other at $18K. Surprisingly, the NGC68 New Rochelle did not sell. A few high grade Booker T. Washingtons sold at OK prices. )))

 

I have little to no interest in commems, but this statement is a perfect reflection of what I saw in the recent Scotsman auction - commemoratives seem really weak right now.

[RGT]

You must be using that new math I keep hearing about. In the old days that would come out to 23%.

 

I don't know about the new math but 96 divided by 300 is equal to 32% using the old math.

 

Chris

 

I certainly can't argue with you there. However, he edited the post after I pointed his error out. It originally said 69 did not sell.

[RGT]

((( The commems got creamed. 30 of 68 did not sell, or 44 %. The ones that did sell, for the most part, sold quite cheaply. An NGC68 Stone Mountain sold for $6K. That kills the value of the other 7, one being offered at $23K, the other at $18K. Surprisingly, the NGC68 New Rochelle did not sell. A few high grade Booker T. Washingtons sold at OK prices. )))

 

I have little to no interest in commems, but this statement is a perfect reflection of what I saw in the recent Scotsman auction - commemoratives seem really weak right now.

 

Are you talking about the high end commems or all classic commems? I started collecting these about three years ago but have recently lost some of my interest in the series and I'm shifting more toward the older classics. I've listed some of my duplicates on ebay as well as one or two whos design never really appealed to me. I may be trying to sell some more in the coming months. My coins are in the $100-$500 range, not the $5K-$25K range.

 

The two that I had listed on ebay ended last weekend at slightly above greysheet. Both went toward the high end of what they have been going for at Heritage. These are coins valued in the $150 range. Maybe I got lucky and my buyers haven't noticed the slowdown.