Bower's Coin World article nails it again

[CTcollector]

I've been impressed with David Bower's comentary in the last 2 editions of Coin World. I think he is doing a great job of calling it like it is. Last week it was regarding gradeflation i.e, how yesterday's 58's are todays 62's, yesterday's 64's are now 66's, etc...... In this weeks addition of Coin World, he commented that not too long ago a dealer would buy an attractive coin for inventory at $800 and list it for sale at $900. Today, if a dealer sees an attractive coin for $800, they more than likely will spend $100 to "upgrade it" and then list it for sale at $1,500 at the higher grade. In fairness, not all dealers practice this and not all coins upgrade. However, I am fairly certain that the surge in grading service submissions these past few years was significantly fueled by the "crackout" game and the lure of easy money. Whether you blame the grading services, the dealers, crack out guys, or the collector, a good deal of value has been permanently sucked out of the hobby as you now need to pay more for less or way more for the same versus a few years ago. I recognize that this is not news to most of us experienced collectors, but I am still interested in any comments people may have, particularly on any long term effects to the hobby.

[Tradedollarnut]

Not only are the same quality coins going up in price because the grade is increased, but those dealers making the coins are also then asking an ever increasing 'moon money' premium because the coin is [for the moment] at the top of the grading heap.

 

It's dis-spiriting to collectors, greedy on the part of the dealers and bad for the hobby in the long run.

[truthteller]

Not only are the same quality coins going up in price because the grade is increased, but those dealers making the coins are also then asking an ever increasing 'moon money' premium because the coin is [for the moment] at the top of the grading heap.

 

It's dis-spiriting to collectors, greedy on the part of the dealers and bad for the hobby in the long run.

 

 

 

I concur. Fortunately for the hobby, there is a barrier at MS69, so an MS64 can ONLY go up 5 points.

 

 

TRUTH

[supertooth]

Yes Truth----You are soooo truthful. They would resubmit a 64 to get a 69 a dozen times if, in the end they knew they would get a grade of MS69. Even if, in reality they knew the coin was only a 64. As long as there was a "PROFIT" in it. And CT---we must really be on the same page this week. The TPG services are indeed at least partly to blame for all this resubmission business. They seem to be willing to play the same games with the dealers that the dealers are playing with the collectors. Except the dealers are knowledgable enough in their minds that they yell if they do not get what they think is the appropriate grade in order to make what they perceive is the appropriate amount of profit. As an "advanced collector", I feel that I have been caught up in this battle of wits. And personally, all I want is "CONSISTENCY". I do not care how NGC feels about PCGS or how PCGS feels about NGC. Or how either of them feels about ANACS. All I want is for my coins to be graded correctly time after time [as close as is possible]. Anything else is a disservice IMHO to the fees that I am honestly paying.

[Hoot]

Equally as bad are the recent "adjustments" to grades, dragging them back a point or two and causing an undue chaos. Current grading practices by both NGC and PCGS, in my own experience, are all over the place, taking away any growth toward consistency (what there was) that may have occurred in the last decade. Grading with the idea of shifting the scale back down is leaving a great many coins in coffins and is not contributing to the health of the hobby in any way. I've found that some coins are graded according to how it's been for a few years and some are being assigned an arbitrary penalty with no rhyme or reason to the adjustment. Now we have greater inconsistency than I've seen in quite some time - PCGS leading the way and NGC following it. Again, it's unhealthy for the hobby. Going backwards is not the solution, rather remaining consistent is the solution.

 

Just my measly opinion.

 

Hoot

[supertooth]

My friend Hoot-----I could not agree with you more. Having worked on the human race for 31 years, I know a little about how we think. When things are going well---we tend to be happy and want them to continue that way [maybe even get better]. We may even say "THANK YOU" to a few people or even "PRAISE" them for their hard work. We tend to be friendly and, when we see an effort being made---people trying hard---we tend to "ENCOURAGE" them----especially if they are working for our benefit. But---when things get out of whack---when we think someone has upset the "STATUS QUO"----when we feel like we have been tricked or lied to or when we feel like the rules of the game have been changed----and noone told us. Well, the human spirit within us becomes "UNHAPPY". There is a saying here on the Eastern Shore of Maryland [do not know if it originated here or not]----"If it ain"t broke, don"t fix it." So, my question to NGC would be----Things were going sooooo smoothly guys. You had PCGS on the run. You were the talk of the town. Guys were sending coins----so many you were making boatloads of money. People were happy and satisfied. They were "PRAISING" your work at almost every turn. Why did you try to fix something that did not need any fixing?? You fellows were really pretty consistent. You were hammering PCGS because of that consistency that you had. Out here in the real world----people like me and Hoot----we had you figured out---we knew what to expect---we knew the grades that we would get back [mostly]. And now we do not. Makes no sense to us. Before it is too late----the powers to be at NGC better go back to the way that it was. Put the "old" consistency back into your grading. Whatever you tweaked---in order to respond to PCGS----"UNTWEAK IT" and go back to the way that it was a year ago. And, if this has been caused by "new" graders coming in, surely all the old graders did not leave? And, if they did, go hire them back and give them a raise. Have the older guys go over all the nuances of the different series with the new guys. Put your egos in your back pocket. Guys out here were "comfortable" with the old set of rules---like an old undershirt or pair of shoes. People really do "HATE" change for the most part----if they were happy with what they had already. Only my humble opinion and that is my advice as well. Bob [supertooth]

[jom]

Not only are the same quality coins going up in price because the grade is increased, but those dealers making the coins are also then asking an ever increasing 'moon money' premium because the coin is [for the moment] at the top of the grading heap.

 

It's dis-spiriting to collectors, greedy on the part of the dealers and bad for the hobby in the long run.

 

Agree but how much of this is to blame on the buyers? If dealers are asking this "moon money" someone must be paying it, right?

 

Is this all a part of the "greater fool theory" where someone buys the coin thinking it will go up and then sell off to another sucker?

 

And then there is the inconsistancy in grading. Everyone knows the "green" label PCGS coins for more. I wonder why?

 

jom

[CTcollector]

I've found that some coins are graded according to how it's been for a few years and some are being assigned an arbitrary penalty with no rhyme or reason to the adjustment. Now we have greater inconsistency than I've seen in quite some time - PCGS leading the way and NGC following it.

 

 

In my opinion, the rhyme and reason are clear. Today's penalty undergrade is tommorow's resubmission. The grading services tapped into something these past few years - the lure of the crackout and easy money. Its made them a ton of revenue and I have to admit its a very simple but crafty idea. How else can you ensure future revenue streams with a finite universe of coins to be certified ?

 

To Hoots and Supertooths other point. I also agree this inconsistency is hurting the hobby as there is a smaller pool of coins available to knowledgeable numismatists in holders that offer value for money spent. While the pool of overgraded swill available to unsuspecting newbies is increasing day by day.

[supertooth]

CT-----Another fine statement of facts on your part. But let us take it back to say 1970 and let me make some points. I was a second year dental student. The only bleaching of teeth occured either during a root canal procedure to sterilize the canals or after the canals were completed in order to prevent the crown of the tooth from turning a darker color. In 1970, there were no third party grading services----no slabs. In 1970, the only orthodontic work done on kids was when their teeth were grossly overcrowded---no hope of anything else helping but braces and certain permanent tooth extractions. Or because of "accident" or trauma. In 1970, there was no grading of Mint produced coins in the MS67--68--69-- or Ms70 ranges. There was only a choice or gem set available. Now today, in 2005, almost everyone believes God hated them for He gave them these "yellow" teeth at birth----we "must" bleach them or everybody will look at us and see these yellow teeth. In 2005, we now have TPGS and we do also have slabs by the millions. In 2005, right of passage to your junior prom requires you to have had a set of braces over a 2--3 year period with the necessary followup retainers. Also in 2005, we have all kinds of MS this and MS that---PF 68--69--70. We also have Cam and DCAM. We even have "stars" for good behavior. Now----my point is this. What happened in the dental business in these 35 years?? Answer is the same thing that has happened in the coin business over the last 35 years. What"s that you ask?? MARKETING---and more MARKETING. You advertise and make the population "believe" that they "need it". Once you have done that---they are hooked. Fact----do they need it? Of course not. But they believe that they do. Now you may ask---Well, if you really do not need it, then why was it created?? SO SOMEONE COULD TAKE YOUR MONEY AND RUN AWAY WITH IT!! Bob [supertooth]

[Leothelion]

Sometimes, you may find, that the only way to reason with others is to push the facts right back at them. I'll start and show you how it's done!

 

The following coin grades MS67 and I'll tell you why! The profile is markfree, the strike is EDS. The coin also exhibits beautiful uniform russet toning. The only mark is seen on Jefferson's coat hidden by the toning.

 

Exhibiting many other coins with pictures and discriptions for what qualifies for a MS65 or MS66 coin through websites (and I'm working on one), word of mouth, sales, starting coin clubs and so on is the only way to go. The TGS don't do this and that's the hidden cloak and dagger with these grading companies. They keep you guessing and playing the game because we're in a bull market and we're not going to see any changes until enough people get screwwed and the bottom falls out. And then you'll know where we'll be then.....out of the game! Until another group like us comes along and puts up with the same BS with these TGS and the cycle will begin again when the next bull market comes around.

 

That's right folks! 15 to 20 years from now there will be another Hoot, another truthteller and another gmarguli and so on and yes.....another leothelion!

 

 

Leo

[Hoot]

That's right folks! 15 to 20 years from now there will be another Hoot, another truthteller and another gmarguli and so on and yes.....another leothelion!

 

 

Leo

 

That's a truly frightening thought!

 

Hoot