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The US Mint has raised prices again.
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88 posts in this topic

On 2/17/2023 at 4:41 PM, World Colonial said:

The increasing prices are on track to eliminate more than just low budget collectors.  Mintage for the 2022 clad set is down 90% from the peak decades ago.  Silver is down close to 70%, I think.  In my prior post, I speculated world mints subsidize prices, but collectors only care about the issue price and secondly for many, resale value.

The lower mintages in theory better support higher issue prices, but that's only true if demand remains at current levels or increases.  I don't think it will, because the sets (either clad or silver) aren't competitive longer term at current prices and supply versus alternative options.

The current business model has the potential to lead to a "death spiral" where higher prices mean lower mintages which leads to higher prices in a feedback loop.  I'm not sure what the issue price would be today at a 100,000 mintage but that's not low and I am even more confident it would be even less competitive than it is now to the remaining buyers.

What happened in the 60’s to the 00’s was “everybody” bought some for themselves and some to resell. Well guess what. Everybody who wanted them, had them. That NEEDED to stop, and now it has. If you’re foolish enough to think that somebody else will do that for you forever, you deserve to not get yours. How has it worked out for those who waited on the 2012 silver set?

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On 2/17/2023 at 4:46 PM, World Colonial said:

Going up like everything else since the pandemic. 

Buy what you want.  I just consider these sets poor relative values versus the alternatives.

There ARE NO ALTERNATIVES, unless you want Chinese fakes. The Mint has a monopoly. 

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On 2/17/2023 at 5:50 PM, VKurtB said:

There ARE NO ALTERNATIVES, unless you want Chinese fakes. The Mint has a monopoly. 

No one has to buy any coin.  That's my point.  There are plenty of other coins to buy, or haven't you noticed?

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On 2/17/2023 at 5:49 PM, VKurtB said:

What happened in the 60’s to the 00’s was “everybody” bought some for themselves and some to resell. Well guess what. Everybody who wanted them, had them. That NEEDED to stop, and now it has. If you’re foolish enough to think that somebody else will do that for you forever, you deserve to not get yours. 

Yes, I agree with this comment.  There were never three to four million collector buyers at peak sales.  Many buying multiple sets and many potentially bought by non-collectors too.

On 2/17/2023 at 5:49 PM, VKurtB said:

How has it worked out for those who waited on the 2012 silver set?

You could make the same comment about the 95-W ASE.  A few exceptions don't negate what I wrote.

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On 2/18/2023 at 1:41 AM, World Colonial said:

The increasing prices are on track to eliminate more than just low budget collectors.  Mintage for the 2022 clad set is down 90% from the peak decades ago.  Silver is down close to 70%, I think.  In my prior post, I speculated world mints subsidize prices, but collectors only care about the issue price and secondly for many, resale value.

The lower mintages in theory better support higher issue prices, but that's only true if demand remains at current levels or increases.  I don't think it will, because the sets (either clad or silver) aren't competitive longer term at current prices and supply versus alternative options.

The current business model has the potential to lead to a "death spiral" where higher prices mean lower mintages which leads to higher prices in a feedback loop.  I'm not sure what the issue price would be today at a 100,000 mintage but that's not low and I am even more confident it would be even less competitive than it is now to the remaining buyers.

How many low budget collectors really prefer moderns? 

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On 2/18/2023 at 9:43 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, I agree with this comment.  There were never three to four million collector buyers at peak sales.  Many buying multiple sets and many potentially bought by non-collectors too.

You could make the same comment about the 95-W ASE.  A few exceptions don't negate what I wrote.

Many bought by market makers because we were a more hobby dependent society before the advent of smartphones and even video games. 

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On 2/18/2023 at 1:46 PM, olympicsos said:

How many low budget collectors really prefer moderns? 

We may never know. This is tremendously tough data to tease out. I suspect it’s higher than most “dealers” will let themselves believe. 

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On 2/18/2023 at 10:49 PM, VKurtB said:

We may never know. This is tremendously tough data to tease out. I suspect it’s higher than most “dealers” will let themselves believe. 

At the same time ATB Quarters, Presidential Dollars and other modern circulating series failed to take off the way state quarters did. Even now state quarters aren’t as popular as they were from 1999 to about 2005. I occasionally get uncirculated state quarters in change, suggesting some holders of bags or rolls are dumping them in circulation. 

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On 2/18/2023 at 1:49 AM, VKurtB said:

What happened in the 60’s to the 00’s was “everybody” bought some for themselves and some to resell. Well guess what. Everybody who wanted them, had them. That NEEDED to stop, and now it has. If you’re foolish enough to think that somebody else will do that for you forever, you deserve to not get yours. How has it worked out for those who waited on the 2012 silver set?

Really the late 50s. 

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On 2/18/2023 at 1:52 PM, olympicsos said:

At the same time ATB Quarters, Presidential Dollars and other modern circulating series failed to take off the way state quarters did. Even now state quarters aren’t as popular as they were from 1999 to about 2005. I occasionally get uncirculated state quarters in change, suggesting some holders of bags or rolls are dumping them in circulation. 

They sure are! Yesterday I got a Connecticut state quarter that looked like it was struck the day before yesterday, except for some snazzy iridescent toning. That’s 24 years! Nice red edges too. 

Edited by VKurtB
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On 2/18/2023 at 2:46 PM, olympicsos said:

How many low budget collectors really prefer moderns? 

The available evidence proves it's really low, for currently circulating denominations.  For collectors who are willing to spend more, as soon as their budget increases, it's a one-way street from this coinage to something else.  There is virtually zero if any movement in the other direction.

Last year, I analyzed the Heritage Archive data here. It's the closest approximation of actual aggregate collector preferences publicly available.  It's less representative for US moderns, but that's only because it's not economical to sell such disproportionately low-priced coinage through them. 

Combining Heritage with Greate Collections and eBay would provide a more accurate result.  However, I didn't have access to historical eBay data and GC isn't organized properly for this analysis.  My inference is that preferences for this coinage (excluding bullion which I did not analyze) are marginally higher than indicated by the Heritage data.

Three collector profiles for US Mint releases:

1) Financially motivated buyers for bullion and many of the commemoratives.

2) Low budget collectors for proof sets, mint sets, other circulating coinage (bags and rolls for CRH and "cherry picking"), and cheaper commemoratives.

3) As a "side collection" for (practically) everyone else, not as their a primary collection.

This is why I expect future mintages to decline but without any meaningful increase in prices, because it's evident most collectors don't really like this coinage that much.  For proof and mint sets, even after such huge declines, mintages are hardly low.  Still very common for such a low aggregate preference, especially where the survival rate in current quality will be a very high percentage for as long as it matters to anyone reading this thread.

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On 2/19/2023 at 11:45 AM, World Colonial said:

because it's evident most collectors don't really like this coinage that much. 

I reject this. I’ve NEVER been to a local coin auction from an estate that did NOT HAVE modern U.S. sets. The only question is what ELSE the dearly departed collected. The LEAST POPULAR is anything non-U.S. Few auctions have it, and even fewer bidders want it, other than me. 

Edited by VKurtB
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On 2/19/2023 at 11:13 PM, VKurtB said:

I reject this. I’ve NEVER been to a local coin auction from an estate that did NOT HAVE modern U.S. sets. The only question is what ELSE the dearly departed collected. The LEAST POPULAR is anything non-U.S.

How many of them would rather collect MS66 CAC Saints if they could afford it instead of moderns? 

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On 2/19/2023 at 3:13 PM, VKurtB said:

I reject this. I’ve NEVER been to a local coin auction from an estate that did NOT HAVE modern U.S. sets. The only question is what ELSE the dearly departed collected. The LEAST POPULAR is anything non-U.S.

Your personal observations are not more representative than the Heritage Archives.

Yes, the least preferred coinage for US collectors generically is low priced non-US coinage.  Concurrently, there is a difference between "popular" measured by the size of the collector base and an actual preference.

There are other reasons US collectors don't buy other coins.  I gave two in my last post.

One, relative marketability.  

Two: Availability.  Your local auction has a very small slice of what's available to buy.  With most non-US coinage, there is no possibility that the hundreds of thousands buying US proof sets can buy a noticeable percentage of it because it doesn't exist to be bought in that supply.  It's never going to be more "popular" by your definition.

Three: Affordability.  Collectors cannot buy what they cannot afford, whether it's US or non-US.

Four: Lack of knowledge.  Most collectors have no clue that most non-US coins even exist.  This doesn't mean they would change their preference, but it does contradict your claim.

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On 2/19/2023 at 3:26 PM, olympicsos said:

How many of them would rather collect MS66 CAC Saints if they could afford it instead of moderns? 

Yes, this is my point.

Number of collectors buying something in and of itself alone never equals an actual preference.

There is a difference between "liking" and preferred.  I've never stated (even once) that US collectors dislike this coinage, for the obvious reason that I can assume no one buys something they don't want.

I also agree for obvious reasons, that whoever buys US Mint products might prefer it over other similarly priced coins or else they would buy something else. This doesn't change a single thing I stated in my prior posts.

I value my collection somewhere in the mid-five figures.  That's just how I collect.  Concurrently, it's equally obvious most collectors don't and won't spend this kind of money, whether they can afford it or not.  It's just not how they view coin collecting, regardless of what they collect.

That they don't doesn't mean they prefer what they buy over all other coins regardless of the value.  Believing it is nonsense.

Edited by World Colonial
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On 2/16/2023 at 3:58 PM, World Colonial said:

US clad sales have declined about 85% from the peak, to about 600,000 in 2019 which was the last year included in my search.  There is still a long way down to go.

When was that peak, what year, WC ?

What makes you think we still have a long way down ?  Usually, down 85% is close to bottoming unless something is headed for zero. :o

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On 2/17/2023 at 2:42 PM, World Colonial said:

Guess it just depends upon the timeframe for someone's outlook. Longer term, I'm quite confident these mintages are far above future demand. 

You mean like all the Proof and Mint sets of the 1960's and 1970's ?

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On 2/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

When was that peak, what year, WC ?

1976, though 1981 (also about 4MM) is a better indicator since it wasn't the bicentennial.

On 2/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Usually, down 85% is close to bottoming unless something is headed for zero. :o

There is no equivalence to any publicly traded financial market which is your implication.

On 2/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What makes you think we still have a long way down ?  

First, what I wrote in earlier posts of the buyer profile.

Second, look at how these sets are bought and who is probably buying it.  It's substantially out of rote habit, often by subscription.  

Third, even with about 400,000 for the clad and somewhat less than 300,000 for the silver (both 2022), still more common than practically any set or coin.  In the past I have guesstimated 2MM US collectors.  If ballpark accurate, this potentially means somewhere between 20% and 35% of the collector base still buy one or both.  That's a very high ratio.

It's not very competitive in the internet age where it has to compete with practically everything else.

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On 2/20/2023 at 3:41 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

When was that peak, what year, WC ?

What makes you think we still have a long way down ?  Usually, down 85% is close to bottoming unless something is headed for zero. :o

I think 1976 followed by 1981 had the most clad proof sets made and 2004 had the most silver proof sets made. 

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On 2/19/2023 at 2:26 PM, olympicsos said:

How many of them would rather collect MS66 CAC Saints if they could afford it instead of moderns? 

Saints? Nah, that’s Goldfinger’s fetish. 

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On 2/19/2023 at 2:32 PM, World Colonial said:

Your personal observations are not more representative than the Heritage Archives.

Yes, the least preferred coinage for US collectors generically is low priced non-US coinage.  Concurrently, there is a difference between "popular" measured by the size of the collector base and an actual preference.

There are other reasons US collectors don't buy other coins.  I gave two in my last post.

One, relative marketability.  

Two: Availability.  Your local auction has a very small slice of what's available to buy.  With most non-US coinage, there is no possibility that the hundreds of thousands buying US proof sets can buy a noticeable percentage of it because it doesn't exist to be bought in that supply.  It's never going to be more "popular" by your definition.

Three: Affordability.  Collectors cannot buy what they cannot afford, whether it's US or non-US.

Four: Lack of knowledge.  Most collectors have no clue that most non-US coins even exist.  This doesn't mean they would change their preference, but it does contradict your claim.

I really don’t give a rip, 💩, or bust what’s happening in or around Heritage. That’s an infinitesimally small sliver of the hobby. I’m talking about central Pennsylvania, which probably has more collectors per capita than anywhere else in the country. Literally DOZENS of auctions, coin clubs, and local shows. There were over 75 public auctions with coins an easy drive from Harrisburg just in 2022. This is VOLUME. It’s also what counts. 

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On 2/19/2023 at 3:26 PM, olympicsos said:

How many of them would rather collect MS66 CAC Saints if they could afford it instead of moderns? 

How many of them are even AWARE of Saints ?  Or Double Eagles in general ?

Lots of bullion buyers...lots of lower-end coin collectors.....might buy more expensive coins if less frequently IF they knew about them and had a long-term plan to accumulate.  I certainly do....but you have to like the coins to buy them every few years or maybe 1-2 annually, tops, instead of buying 5-15 coins of other types that cost less.

I didn't know about Saint-Gaudens DEs or DEs in general until 2009 when the Mint came out with the MMIX UHR. :o  I'm a pretty knowledgeable guy about history and finance but somehow the coins very existence fell between the cracks (even with 1 or 2 clients mentioning Saints when I gave them bullion dealers names like Blanchard).

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On 2/20/2023 at 11:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

How many of them are even AWARE of Saints ?  Or Double Eagles in general ?

Lots of bullion buyers...lots of lower-end coin collectors.....might buy more expensive coins if less frequently IF they knew about them and had a long-term plan to accumulate.  I certainly do....but you have to like the coins to buy them every few years or maybe 1-2 annually, tops, instead of buying 5-15 coins of other types that cost less.

I didn't know about Saint-Gaudens DEs or DEs in general until 2009 when the Mint came out with the MMIX UHR. :o  I'm a pretty knowledgeable guy about history and finance but somehow the coins very existence fell between the cracks (even with 1 or 2 clients mentioning Saints when I gave them bullion dealers names like Blanchard).

I knew about saints as the national collectors mint advertised a 1933 tribute coin on TV and there was publicity about how the 1933 DE was then the most valuable coin existing. Right then along with the artistry of Saint Gaudens, it’s easy to understand why this series is captivating. 

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On 2/20/2023 at 3:09 PM, VKurtB said:

I really don’t give a rip, 💩, or bust what’s happening in or around Heritage. That’s an infinitesimally small sliver of the hobby. I’m talking about central Pennsylvania, which probably has more collectors per capita than anywhere else in the country. Literally DOZENS of auctions, coin clubs, and local shows. There were over 75 public auctions with coins an easy drive from Harrisburg just in 2022. This is VOLUME. It’s also what counts. 

I get that you dislike my replies to your opinion.  Nothing new about that.  I contradict what people want to hear and believe regularly.  What I told you in my last reply is an accurate reflection of how collectors view collecting.  I provided four specific reasons why "popular" doesn't necessarily equal preferred and each one is easy to demonstrate.

Your local auctions are a better indicator than Heritage?  Great, why don't you post a review covering the last 30 years segmented by volume and prices like I did from the Heritage archives?  If it contradicts Heritage, then you'll have a point.  Otherwise, it's just your unsubstantiated opinion.

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On 2/20/2023 at 3:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

How many of them are even AWARE of Saints ?  Or Double Eagles in general ?

I assume essentially every US collector is aware of both.  If they aren't, it's almost certainly the bullion stacker type that isn't.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Lots of bullion buyers....might buy more expensive coins if less frequently IF they knew about them and had a long-term plan to accumulate.  I certainly do....but you have to like the coins to buy them every few years or maybe 1-2 annually, tops, instead of buying 5-15 coins of other types that cost less.

Predominant bullion coin buyers seem to be more interested in making or at least not losing money.  Why else wouldn't they buy it, as they can obviously afford a reasonably wide variety of coinage?  They aren't candidates to buy most other coins because other coins don't have equivalent marketability. 

It's their psychology, not lack of resources or just lack of knowledge.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

.lots of lower-end coin collectors.....might buy more expensive coins if less frequently IF they knew about them and had a long-term plan to accumulate.  I certainly do....but you have to like the coins to buy them every few years or maybe 1-2 annually, tops, instead of buying 5-15 coins of other types that cost less.

No, not really.  It's unlikely lack of knowledge is the driving factor for more than a very low proportion. When it isn't a lack of money, it's overwhelmingly lack of interest and loss aversion.

It's reasonable to make this assumption when it comes to buying the types of coins I've been buying since 1998, but not when spending more on US coinage generally or even many non-US coins.  The coins are overwhelmingly easy to buy and information isn't that limited, if at all.

Look at your own collecting.  From your description, you're not interested in buying "meaningfully" valued coins which aren't liquid.  You've mentioned buying Saints, Morgan dollars, and NCLT.  These are exactly the types of coins any collector buys who wants to buy more expensive coins while minimizing the probability of loss.

Most others seem to do it through low budgets, including treating it as a consumption expense.  The financial promoters of the hobby are marketing to these people and so is the US Mint, but only a low percentage are candidates to spend a lot more.  They aren't "investing" and would rather spend it elsewhere, assuming they have it.

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On 2/20/2023 at 3:09 PM, VKurtB said:

I really don’t give a rip, 💩, or bust what’s happening in or around Heritage. That’s an infinitesimally small sliver of the hobby.

Maybe 15-20 years ago, but not know.  The online marketers DOMINATE this hobby nowadays.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:09 PM, VKurtB said:

I’m talking about central Pennsylvania, which probably has more collectors per capita than anywhere else in the country. Literally DOZENS of auctions, coin clubs, and local shows. There were over 75 public auctions with coins an easy drive from Harrisburg just in 2022. This is VOLUME. It’s also what counts. 

The demographic of Central PA is such that many people were into coin collecting from the 1950's - present.  So many of them are getting up there in age or have passed on.

I think that region might be a nice little niche today....I doubt it will be in 15-20 years.  European banks were once a source of fantastic hoards.  Today, not so much.

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On 2/20/2023 at 5:08 PM, olympicsos said:

I knew about saints as the national collectors mint advertised a 1933 tribute coin on TV and there was publicity about how the 1933 DE was then the most valuable coin existing. Right then along with the artistry of Saint Gaudens, it’s easy to understand why this series is captivating. 

I think the CASUAL collector and CASUAL and INFREQUENT gold/silver stacker/collector like me might not be aware at all.  I'm just going by own personal experiences from myself, my family and friends, and business contacts. (thumbsu

I agree with WC that a person who does coin collecting activity or reading WEEKLY or even MONTHLY is certainly likely to know about Saints and/or Double Eagles.  For myself, I could go a few YEARS without doing any buying or looking.

Not sure I should have been classified as a "collector" at that time.... but I'm just telling you my experience. xD

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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On 2/17/2023 at 1:04 PM, VKurtB said:

will always get at least 4 Mint products, pretty much no matter what:

1) Clad proof set

2) Silver proof set

3) Uncirculated set

4) “Burnished” W mintmarked ASE

looks just like my shopping list every year lately.  most of the other "junk"  just isnt worth it

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I quit buying from the mint many years ago. The price was not a factor. It was the size of the collection and the space required that ended my buying. I enjoy what I have but there will never be enough time to actually pull everything out and actually look at it. 

The money I saved has gone a long way towards buying older coins that I enjoy more.

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