The US Mint has raised prices again. 1 1

[Lem E]

I got the confirmation emails for the 3 roll quarter set and for the 2023 proof ASE. Quarter set jumped from $54.00 to $60.00 and the ASE has jumped from $73.00 to $80.00

[VKurtB]

On 2/16/2023 at 2:11 PM, Lem E said:

I got the confirmation emails for the 3 roll quarter set and for the 2023 proof ASE. Quarter set jumped from $54.00 to $60.00 and the ASE has jumped from $73.00 to $80.00

There was warning this was coming. 

[Lem E]

On 2/16/2023 at 2:12 PM, VKurtB said:

There was warning this was coming. 

I figured a change was coming when they wouldn't put the prices on things.

[VKurtB]

On 2/16/2023 at 2:14 PM, Lem E said:

I figured a change was coming when they wouldn't put the prices on things.

I think it was NumiNews who reported it was imminent. 

[bsshog40]

The main reason I canceled all my subs and haven't bought from them since 2020. 

[World Colonial]

So, a 100% markup for circulating change? 

No thanks

The proof ASE is also a rip-off, unless the mintages are a low fraction of what it used to be.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by World Colonial

[VKurtB]

On 2/16/2023 at 2:27 PM, bsshog40 said:

The main reason I canceled all my subs and haven't bought from them since 2020. 

These are prices that are 1) more closely in compliance with federal law, and 2) more in line with other world mints. Prices have virtually NOTHING to do with mintage, other than a higher denominator. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by VKurtB

[Lem E]

I only buy a few things a year from the Mint. 

[Coinbuf]

On 2/16/2023 at 1:27 PM, bsshog40 said:

The main reason I canceled all my subs and haven't bought from them since 2020. 

Agreed, they lost my business years ago.

[World Colonial]

On 2/16/2023 at 3:34 PM, VKurtB said:

These are prices that are 1) more closely in compliance with federal law, and 2) more in line with other world mints. Prices have virtually NOTHING to do with mintage, other than a higher denominator. 

Yes, I know.

My point on the mintage is that it's still an awful value proposition for the buyer.  I think Switzerland has mintages in the 2000 to 3000 range for the annual proof set now.  Maybe it's between 2X to 3X the US clad set?

Same pattern for other major world mints, to my recollection.

Regardless, it's a much better value.  The longer-term marketability has to be much better.

US clad sales have declined about 85% from the peak, to about 600,000 in 2019 which was the last year included in my search.

There is still a long way down to go.

[VKurtB]

On 2/16/2023 at 2:58 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, I know.

My point on the mintage is that it's still an awful value proposition for the buyer.  I think Switzerland has mintages in the 2000 to 3000 range for the annual proof set now.  Maybe it's between 2X to 3X the US clad set?

Same pattern for other major world mints, to my recollection.

Regardless, it's a much better value.  The longer-term marketability has to be much better.

US clad sales have declined about 85% from the peak, to about 600,000 in 2019 which was the last year included in my search.

There is still a long way down to go.

The higher mintage of the U.S. product is none of the Mint’s concern. They mint to demand. They have no interest in tomorrow’s scarcity. 

[RWB]

Buy a master pallet and they'll give you 3% off....

[olympicsos]

Wasn’t the US Mint going to only go with the silver proof set at some point? I heard talk of that. 

[World Colonial]

On 2/16/2023 at 4:34 PM, VKurtB said:

The higher mintage of the U.S. product is none of the Mint’s concern. They mint to demand. They have no interest in tomorrow’s scarcity. 

It's of concern to collectors which I presume is the entire point of this thread.  

They are on course to price the product out of the market.

[Fenntucky Mike]

The mint should charge break even prices for common or low demand items, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace commemoratives they should charge cost x 2 and keep the mintage at or below 75-100k. The demand is there.

[World Colonial]

On 2/16/2023 at 9:34 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The mint should charge break even prices for common or low demand items, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace commemoratives they should charge cost x 2 and keep the mintage at or below 75-100k. The demand is there.

The new Morgan and Peace dollar might be an exception, though I doubt for long if it's an on-going series.  The 2021 prices weren't low for such common coins.  Even your reduced mintages potentially rely on a noticeable proportion of speculative or financially motivated buyers.  The number of hobbyist collectors who own individual dates of real Morgan and Peace dollars potential isn't that much larger.

It's the cost structure.  I don't think the US Mint should be in the business of subsidizing collectible coinage.  Problem is perpetual currency debasement makes most of it uncompetitive at full accounting cost.

The coins simply aren't that interesting, except for speculative buying (which isn't real collecting) or as a side collection to the majority of buyers who can both afford it and don't mind spending the money.

In the past, I've guesstimated that the majority of US collectors have an annual budget of $500 or less and I think this is generous.  This is the profile for a big portion of the traditional base for proof and mint sets in the past, though not of other US Mint offerings.  If this budget is "ballpark" accurate, I don't think most of them can either afford it or are motivated to buy it.

[MorganMan]

Quit buying from the mint back in 2019. I will wait and buy it cheaper on the secondary market.

 

Their prices have gone outrageous. Going up even as silver has gone down.

[Lem E]

I think I am going to scale back quite a bit. The silver proof set will definitely be cut at a price of $130 and the 3 ASEs are probably out as well. I will keep up with the quarter rolls and I will be picking up one of the new proof Peace $. I think those should be some pretty sharp looking pieces. I have enrolled for the reverse proof Morgan and Peace set but, if the price is ridiculously high it may be cut as well. 

[World Colonial]

On 2/16/2023 at 11:09 PM, MorganMan said:

Quit buying from the mint back in 2019. I will wait and buy it cheaper on the secondary market.

This makes perfect sense for the buyer.  It also means that as the mintage shrinks, the overhead must be allocated to the remaining sets requiring higher prices.  It's a catch-22 with no way out.

On 2/16/2023 at 11:09 PM, MorganMan said:

Their prices have gone outrageous. Going up even as silver has gone down.

The silver content amounts to somewhat less than 1.5oz.  Unless the price increase was small, It's probably due to overhead.

I don't check secondary market vs. US Mint prices.  I've consistently read that these mass produced products almost always sell for less in the secondary market and it's due to a combination of weak collector appeal and how it has to be priced.

I get that the US Mint isn't in the business of making sure buyers don't lose money.  It doesn't change anything.  Given the mintage and price differences, my inference is that other world mints must provide at least partial subsidies.

Regardless, in today's collector market, the mintage for the clad proof set could decline by another 85% from 2019 to about 100,000 and it would still potentially be too common for longer term collector demand.  Similar idea for the silver set and mint set.

This isn't the 60's or 70's when the US Mint didn't have to compete with hardly anyone else.

[VKurtB]

On 2/16/2023 at 8:34 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The mint should charge break even prices for common or low demand items, for the 2023 Morgan and Peace commemoratives they should charge cost x 2 and keep the mintage at or below 75-100k. The demand is there.

There are laws and regulations that determine the prices. Nothing is allowed to subsidize anything else. 

[VKurtB]

On 2/16/2023 at 10:09 PM, MorganMan said:

Quit buying from the mint back in 2019. I will wait and buy it cheaper on the secondary market.

If enough people do this, they never will get cheaper on the secondary market. 

[VKurtB]

I will always get at least 4 Mint products, pretty much no matter what:

1) Clad proof set

2) Silver proof set

3) Uncirculated set

4) “Burnished” W mintmarked ASE

And no, I will not wait for the secondary market, which will go UP due to reduced original purchases. The secondary market only goes down when people overbuy. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by VKurtB

[World Colonial]

On 2/17/2023 at 1:04 PM, VKurtB said:

And no, I will not wait for the secondary market, which will go UP due to reduced original purchases. The secondary market only goes down when people overbuy. 

I just checked the most recent US Mint sales report as of 2/13.  Yes, the 2022 proof set (both) mintage is "low", compared to prior years.  At somewhat over 400,000 (clad) and somewhat below 300,000 (silver), it's still nowhere close to actually low.

Guess it just depends upon the timeframe for someone's outlook. Longer term, I'm quite confident these mintages are far above future demand. 

[olympicsos]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:15 AM, World Colonial said:

The new Morgan and Peace dollar might be an exception, though I doubt for long if it's an on-going series.  The 2021 prices weren't low for such common coins.  Even your reduced mintages potentially rely on a noticeable proportion of speculative or financially motivated buyers.  The number of hobbyist collectors who own individual dates of real Morgan and Peace dollars potential isn't that much larger.

It's the cost structure.  I don't think the US Mint should be in the business of subsidizing collectible coinage.  Problem is perpetual currency debasement makes most of it uncompetitive at full accounting cost.

The coins simply aren't that interesting, except for speculative buying (which isn't real collecting) or as a side collection to the majority of buyers who can both afford it and don't mind spending the money.

In the past, I've guesstimated that the majority of US collectors have an annual budget of $500 or less and I think this is generous.  This is the profile for a big portion of the traditional base for proof and mint sets in the past, though not of other US Mint offerings.  If this budget is "ballpark" accurate, I don't think most of them can either afford it or are motivated to buy it.

I think the Morgan and Peace will last a while. They’re two very popular silver dollar series. If anything I think the other modern series will take a nosedive in popularity. We’re already seeing this with proof and mint sets and with each succeeding quarter program. 

[olympicsos]

On 2/17/2023 at 10:42 PM, World Colonial said:

I just checked the most recent US Mint sales report as of 2/13.  Yes, the 2022 proof set (both) mintage is "low", compared to prior years.  At somewhat over 400,000 (clad) and somewhat below 300,000 (silver), it's still nowhere close to actually low.

Guess it just depends upon the timeframe for someone's outlook. Longer term, I'm quite confident these mintages are far above future demand. 

I remember when the 2004 proof set was very expensive and then the value collapsed. Still we are seeing 1950s mintage levels with room for even less to be made. At what point will the US Mint simply discontinue or combine the annual core products? 

[bsshog40]

On 2/17/2023 at 11:56 AM, VKurtB said:

If enough people do this, they never will get cheaper on the secondary market. 

There will always be the bulk buyers. The mint is slowly just eliminating the low budget collectors with the increasing prices of their products. I put an end to my proof set collection and  my ASE collection because of this. I will eventually sell these off and resort to classic coinage. The only way my danscos will continue is what I find in pocket change. 

[World Colonial]

On 2/17/2023 at 4:35 PM, olympicsos said:

I remember when the 2004 proof set was very expensive and then the value collapsed. Still we are seeing 1950s mintage levels with room for even less to be made. At what point will the US Mint simply discontinue or combine the annual core products? 

I remember when the 1999 silver proof set was worth something like $600.  What's it worth now?

There is a big difference between the mintage levels for the 50's sets then versus similar mintages now and later.  Back then, presumably the collector base was (somewhat or a lot) smaller, but there was also a lot less choice.  It was mostly what was available from their local dealers (for most collectors) which varied noticeably, depending upon where they lived.

Today, the US Mint competes in a global market, not just against other world mints, but against the internet which means practically every coin.  In this competitive landscape, US proof sets are drab uninteresting options, not really very competitive even against similarly priced coins.

US collectors do prefer US coins by a substantial margin, but they did too before sales volume collapsed 90% from the peak for clad sets.

[World Colonial]

On 2/17/2023 at 5:04 PM, bsshog40 said:

There will always be the bulk buyers. The mint is slowly just eliminating the low budget collectors with the increasing prices of their products. 

The increasing prices are on track to eliminate more than just low budget collectors.  Mintage for the 2022 clad set is down 90% from the peak decades ago.  Silver is down close to 70%, I think.  In my prior post, I speculated world mints subsidize prices, but collectors only care about the issue price and secondly for many, resale value.

The lower mintages in theory better support higher issue prices, but that's only true if demand remains at current levels or increases.  I don't think it will, because the sets (either clad or silver) aren't competitive longer term at current prices and supply versus alternative options.

The current business model has the potential to lead to a "death spiral" where higher prices mean lower mintages which leads to higher prices in a feedback loop.  I'm not sure what the issue price would be today at a 100,000 mintage but that's not low and I am even more confident it would be even less competitive than it is now to the remaining buyers.

[VKurtB]

On 2/17/2023 at 1:42 PM, World Colonial said:

I just checked the most recent US Mint sales report as of 2/13.  Yes, the 2022 proof set (both) mintage is "low", compared to prior years.  At somewhat over 400,000 (clad) and somewhat below 300,000 (silver), it's still nowhere close to actually low.

Guess it just depends upon the timeframe for someone's outlook. Longer term, I'm quite confident these mintages are far above future demand. 

Last year’s Silver Proof Set retailed at $110, with NO SHIPPING because I’m a subscriber. The last two I saw selling at auction within the last month went for $140 and $150 PLUS the Buyer’s Premium PLUS shipping. Yeah, going down, sure. Pffft. You do you. I’ll do me.  

[World Colonial]

On 2/17/2023 at 5:42 PM, VKurtB said:

Last year’s Silver Proof Set retailed at $110, with NO SHIPPING because I’m a subscriber. The last two I saw selling at auction within the last month went for $140 and $150 PLUS the Buyer’s Premium PLUS shipping. Yeah, going down, sure. Pffft. You do you. I’ll do me.  

Going up like everything else since the pandemic. 

Buy what you want.  I just consider these sets poor relative values versus the alternatives.