Key Date Coins. How do they become key dates? 1 1

[lcourtney123]

I have read a lot about key date coins aiming to learn more about different series digging a through all mine, funny thing I don't own any! But I am curious to know what makes it a key date coin?

Demand? Low Mintage? Small survival rate? Place of mintage? This is just some of my thoughts.

[J P M]

Welcome again and yes to all the above it may be only one item or it may be more. Each coin will have it's own history. 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

Leading indicator is mintage - lagging indicator is survival.  If you think about each series and the key dates, these are generally "low mintage."  

If you consider the 1950-D Nickel, that was the "key date" that wasn't.  This coin was hoarded and is widely available and very affordable, because so many were preserved.  

Likewise, if you think of the 1932-D Quarter, this is the key date despite the 1932-S being lower mintage.  In fairness, both are tougher dates, but the 1932-S was hoarded by collectors and dealers, while the 1932-D was less so.  So survival is driving the key date status of this coin

The cost of these key dates is driven by demand.  If you think about the 1893-S Morgan dollar...There were 100K minted, and there are probably 10K surviving today.  This coin can be found at any large coin show, and is plentiful compared to other series.  On the rarity scale, this coin is an R.1 (common).  However, the demand for this series is so strong that examples will be much more expensive than R.3-4 coins in less popular series (in comparable grades).

Hope this helps to demonstrate the different variables that drive key date availability and cost.

[RWB]

"Key date" is simply a coin that is more difficult to find than most in that series. A couple of generations ago, one could assemble a complete set of Lincoln cents from circulation - except for a small number of coins that were difficult to locate in change....1914-D, 1931-S, 1909-S VDB. These were keys to completing the set. Coin dealers often paid nice premiums (over face) for compete sets, so it could be profitable to assemble sets with the keys from circulation then sell the sets.

[zadok]

On 1/27/2023 at 11:07 AM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Leading indicator is mintage - lagging indicator is survival.  If you think about each series and the key dates, these are generally "low mintage."  

If you consider the 1950-D Nickel, that was the "key date" that wasn't.  This coin was hoarded and is widely available and very affordable, because so many were preserved.  

Likewise, if you think of the 1932-D Quarter, this is the key date despite the 1932-S being lower mintage.  In fairness, both are tougher dates, but the 1932-S was hoarded by collectors and dealers, while the 1932-D was less so.  So survival is driving the key date status of this coin

The cost of these key dates is driven by demand.  If you think about the 1893-S Morgan dollar...There were 100K minted, and there are probably 10K surviving today.  This coin can be found at any large coin show, and is plentiful compared to other series.  On the rarity scale, this coin is an R.1 (common).  However, the demand for this series is so strong that examples will be much more expensive than R.3-4 coins in less popular series (in comparable grades).

Hope this helps to demonstrate the different variables that drive key date availability and cost.

...accurately n succinctly stated....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/27/2023 at 11:07 AM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

The cost of these key dates is driven by demand.  If you think about the 1893-S Morgan dollar...There were 100K minted, and there are probably 10K surviving today.  This coin can be found at any large coin show, and is plentiful compared to other series.  On the rarity scale, this coin is an R.1 (common).  However, the demand for this series is so strong that examples will be much more expensive than R.3-4 coins in less popular series (in comparable grades).

Same thing with an MCMVII High Relief Saint, NN and Lcourt.

I would just add that you start with mintage...then look at survivors....then look at HIGH-GRADED survivors (top-collectors want the best coins).....and then figure in demand.  That tells you which coins are likely to be "key dates."

[Simple Collector]

IMO there is also condition rarity. Many dates and mints in a series had large mintages with not many high quality survivors. Two series that come to mind are Franklin half dollars and silver Roosevelt dimes. Both are relatively easy to put together in a nice BU set. But putting together sets in high grade with full strikes is a major challenge! 

[World Colonial]

Basically what @RWB stated, traditionally. 

At the time (up to 60's or 70's), it made sense in the context of circulating coinage, since far fewer collectors proportionately paid meaningful premiums.  This perception has survived to the current day which explains why coins which are common to very common sell for such inflated prices.  Collectors of the time didn't see it in their change, most collectors they knew (if any) probably didn't own it either, and their dealer probably usually didn't have it, so it was "rare".  In the 1970's when I started collecting, none of my regular dealers carried these key dates.  One sold more expensive coinage, but apparently, didn't cater to those who collected it.

Today, the concept of key date should be obsolete, since none of these coins are remotely hard to buy.  Neither are most of the scarcer dates in other series, except when narrowed down to some specific quality.  Using the traditional definition, some of the earlier series have a disproportionate percentage of key dates. 

In the primary coinage I collect (non-US), under the US definition, every single coin could be considered a key date, especially when considered in a specific quality, as not even one is easy to buy, except as dreck.

[World Colonial]

On 1/27/2023 at 1:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Same thing with an MCMVII High Relief Saint, NN and Lcourt.

I would just add that you start with mintage...then look at survivors....then look at HIGH-GRADED survivors (top-collectors want the best coins).....and then figure in demand.  That tells you which coins are likely to be "key dates."

I think your post describes how key dates are viewed today, which is why I consider the term meaningless.

There is nothing "key" about a coin which can be bought any day of the week or on short notice for anyone who has the money.

[VKurtB]

On 1/28/2023 at 10:54 AM, World Colonial said:

I think your post describes how key dates are viewed today, which is why I consider the term meaningless.

There is nothing "key" about a coin which can be bought any day of the week or on short notice for anyone who has the money.

!!!!  Key is a relative term. And third party grading has added another wrinkle. So have registry sets. Imagine someone who might want to put together a high grade slabbed set of something relatively mundane - like Kennedy half dollars. Yes, lots of proofs are out there, but for many dates, the regular strikes are nearly non-existent in high slabbed grades. They’re common as dirt raw, but what if you want a slabbed MS67 for your set? That could get difficult. That don’t come up for sale often. 
 

Bottom line: a key date is one thing - a coin that you want in the form you want it, that is hard to find. You can walk around a large coin show and have dealers almost yell at you, “I’m buying key dates in almost all series!” Yeah, ain’t we all, brother?

[World Colonial]

On 1/28/2023 at 1:52 PM, VKurtB said:

!!!!  Key is a relative term. And third party grading has added another wrinkle. So have registry sets. Imagine someone who might want to put together a high grade slabbed set of something relatively mundane - like Kennedy half dollars. Yes, lots of proofs are out there, but for many dates, the regular strikes are nearly non-existent in high slabbed grades. They’re common as dirt raw, but what if you want a slabbed MS67 for your set? That could get difficult. That don’t come up for sale often. 
 

Bottom line: a key date is one thing - a coin that you want in the form you want it, that is hard to find. You can walk around a large coin show and have dealers almost yell at you, “I’m buying key dates in almost all series!” Yeah, ain’t we all, brother?

If this description is accurate of the term today, key date in recent US collecting is just more marketing, nothing else. 

[VKurtB]

On 1/28/2023 at 3:28 PM, World Colonial said:

If this description is accurate of the term today, key date in recent US collecting is just more marketing, nothing else. 

Correct! I keep telling everyone who will listen that EVERYTHING in this stinking hobby as it exists today is ALL MARKETING. Don’t try to deny it. You need to understand it and act accordingly. It’s supply and demand, and 95% of what moves prices is changes in DEMAND. What alters demand? MARKETING. Cynical? Heck yeah!

Edited January 28, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/28/2023 at 4:37 PM, VKurtB said:

Correct! I keep telling everyone who will listen that EVERYTHING in this stinking hobby as it exists today is ALL MARKETING. Don’t try to deny it. You need to understand it and act accordingly. It’s supply and demand, and 95% of what moves prices is changes in DEMAND. What alters demand? MARKETING. Cynical? Heck yeah!

I disagree 100% !!   You offer NO PROOF.  You besmirch some of the folks making lots of money in this business/hobby/racket, and their attempts to spread-the-wealth by cutting lowly peons like me in on their riches.  I am offended, and will not STAND to listen to these attacks on folks whose motives are 100% altruistic and in my best interests.

I'd rip you more, Kurt, but I'm off to my How To Market Coins & Make $1 Million In Your 2nd Year class........

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 1/28/2023 at 9:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I disagree 100% !!   You offer NO PROOF.  You besmirch some of the folks making lots of money in this business/hobby/racket, and their attempts to spread-the-wealth by cutting lowly peons like me in on their riches.  I am offended, and will not STAND to listen to these attacks on folks whose motives are 100% altruistic and in my best interests.

I'd rip you more, Kurt, but I'm off to my How To Market Coins & Make $1 Million In Your 2nd Year class........

 

Racket, you say? Yeah, pretty much true. The problem is they got tennis racket dreams while using a badminton racket  brain. The neatest part is I can pull up any cable channel and see multiple coin and/or bullion racket ads per hour. The worst are the Gold IRA scam ads. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by VKurtB

[lcourtney123]

On 1/27/2023 at 8:22 AM, J P M said:

Welcome again and yes to all the above it may be only one item or it may be more. Each coin will have it's own history. 

That is what is really interesting to me the history behind the coin. I always just spent them! Oddness in different coins like a dime I have its smaller different color. I will be posting soon and explaining what I am doing just trying to figure out why its like it is. 

Simplicity is best for me some things I just don't understand in these conversations

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/30/2023 at 12:09 PM, lcourtney123 said:

That is what is really interesting to me the history behind the coin. I always just spent them! Oddness in different coins like a dime I have its smaller different color. I will be posting soon and explaining what I am doing just trying to figure out why its like it is. 

Studying the history of a coin type is fascinating and one of my passions here, more so than trying to complete registry sets or buying many coins (which takes lots of $$$ and we all have limits).  For two of my main holdings -- Saints and Morgans -- the influence of hoards is key to their availability today.  You also have fantastic stories of these hoards coming into the U.S. market in the 1950's and 1960's and beyond.

It's fascinating to know the stories behind coinage.  Some coins have more than others for sure.

On 1/30/2023 at 12:09 PM, lcourtney123 said:

Simplicity is best for me some things I just don't understand in these conversations

You'll pick it up eventually.  I've been here 10+ years (I think) and when the experts/vets go back-and-forth on "FBL" or "5 Steps" or other minute grading details, my eyes gloss over. 

[World Colonial]

On 1/30/2023 at 12:19 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You'll pick it up eventually.  I've been here 10+ years (I think) and when the experts/vets go back-and-forth on "FBL" or "5 Steps" or other minute grading details, my eyes gloss over. 

I don't think you are in the minority with the type of examples you gave.  It's numismatic minutia.  There isn't any reason to believe that most collectors are interested in this type of subject.

In the examples you provided, I'd guess a few percent of both series actively buy this coinage at "full freight" (market price in a TPG holder).  The rest are "cherry picking", trying to complete their sets buying ungraded coins or arbitraging the price difference.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/30/2023 at 5:36 PM, World Colonial said:

I don't think you are in the minority with the type of examples you gave.  It's numismatic minutia.  There isn't any reason to believe that most collectors are interested in this type of subject.

In the examples you provided, I'd guess a few percent of both series actively buy this coinage at "full freight" (market price in a TPG holder).  The rest are "cherry picking", trying to complete their sets buying ungraded coins or arbitraging the price difference.

Yeah, for me I've always been interested in history in general, WC.  So it stands to reason that I'd be interested -- and fascinated -- by some of the history behind the coins.

OTOH, some of the pure collectors and registry players have no interest in that at all.  Then again, I have absolutely no interest in the difference between a VAM 7 and VAM 8 or whatever they go by. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 1/30/2023 at 7:33 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Yeah, for me I've always been interested in history in general, WC.  So it stands to reason that I'd be interested -- and fascinated -- by some of the history behind the coins.

OTOH, some of the pure collectors and registry players have no interest in that at all.  Then again, I have absolutely no interest in the difference between a VAM 7 and VAM 8 or whatever they go by. 

 VAM’s are all marketing, too. 

[The 12th Denticle]

Here is a key date coin from one of our former overseas territories, the Philippines.

It became a key date mainly due its survivability rather than its mintage.

The 1906-S US-Philippines (USPI) one peso coin (business strike) had a mintage of about 200K, compared to millions for the previous years. But the big drop in mintage is not the main reason for this coin becoming the key date of its series.

Rather than typing in the long (but interesting) story of how this coin became a key date coin, please read it in one of my registry sets:

https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/wcm/CoinView.aspx?sc=754996

Today, only about 177 of these coins survive in the top three TGP holders, assuming the census numbers are correct. Of these, only 13 are in Mint State and none are Gem quality. So we may also have a condition rarity for this coin in Mint State because there are only 3 graded by NGC (MS 60 and MS 61s); 8 graded by PCGS (MS 61-63); and 2 (MS61s) graded by ANACS, as of this writing.

[portmanson]

I had the same doubts, thanks to all the users who have commented, everything has been very clear to me