Creating a Jefferson Nickel short set - what is the ideal date range? 1 1

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

All the talk about Jefferson Nickels is starting to give me the itch to create a short set.  I have a few other sets going-on, so I am not ready to go after this whole monster. My ideal set would be MS66FS (concessions may have to be made) and would contain all major varieties within the date range.  What is the ideal date rage for a set of "early date" Jeffersons?

Initially, I was thinking 1964.  But is this the case with non-silver coins?  Obviously stopping in the mid-50s would save me having to buy 30+/- additional coins... but I want the stopping point to be something that most collectors could align to.

[Mr.Bill347]

JPMashoke is the FS champion I’ll bet he can sure tell you 

[J P M]

I started with the WWII silver set 42 to 45. Thanks Bill but Lem is the champion when it comes to Nickels

Edited August 11, 2022 by J P Mashoke

[Mr.Bill347]

How can that be? 😊 

[Lem E]

Typically it is 38 to 64, but I wouldn’t call it a short set by any means. I guess you could stop wherever you like. The easiest short set would be the war nickels. Some of the 50s and 60s coins are going to be tough to nearly impossible to find in FS. 

[Lem E]

On 8/11/2022 at 3:12 PM, J P Mashoke said:

I started with the WWII silver set 42 to 45. Thanks Bill but Lem is the champion when it comes to Nickels

 Champion not so much, but I do like me some nickels.

[VKurtB]

The Jeffs are an affordable set wall to wall. No short set needed. Only varieties are tough. There are a few modern condition rarities. Those large fields show the hits. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by VKurtB

[Mr.Bill347]

Lem, you and JP are the nickel kings!

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

Thanks gang.

@VKurtB I could go after the whole thing... but that's A LOT of coins.  I don't want to neglect my mains (Half Cents and Type).  My other side project was Mercury Proof Dimes, but I am almost complete there, so looking for my next side piece.  I like the fact that there are no "stoppers" in this set, and there are some very cool varieties.  And while I am not a coin investor or speculator, I think FS Jeffersons have some room to run.

@J P Mashoke and @Lem E I am not even trying to step into the ring with you two.  Your belts are safe.  I was thinking about the War Nickels (and probably still a good starting point for me), but I have a few earlier Jeff proofs and wanted to tie them in.

@Lem E What was the Jefferson book you posted a few months back? It was a white paperback book, with steps on it.  I think you said it was your favorite one.  Was it the Jefferson Nickel Analyst (I think that was it - and time for me to buy a book)?

@Mr.Bill347 Thanks for the response, but I want you to know that your vote counts as much as any other.  Rest assured that I will never take the title from anyone, so I welcome from everyone.

[Coinbuf]

I vote for 38 through 45.

[J P M]

On 8/11/2022 at 5:32 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Thanks gang.

@VKurtB I could go after the whole thing... but that's A LOT of coins.  I don't want to neglect my mains (Half Cents and Type).  My other side project was Mercury Proof Dimes, but I am almost complete there, so looking for my next side piece.  I like the fact that there are no "stoppers" in this set, and there are some very cool varieties.  And while I am not a coin investor or speculator, I think FS Jeffersons have some room to run.

@J P Mashoke and @Lem E I am not even trying to step into the ring with you two.  Your belts are safe.  I was thinking about the War Nickels (and probably still a good starting point for me), but I have a few earlier Jeff proofs and wanted to tie them in.

@Lem E What was the Jefferson book you posted a few months back? It was a white paperback book, with steps on it.  I think you said it was your favorite one.  Was it the Jefferson Nickel Analyst (I think that was it - and time for me to buy a book)?

@Mr.Bill347 Thanks for the response, but I want you to know that your vote counts as much as any other.  Rest assured that I will never take the title from anyone, so I welcome from everyone.

I think you would enjoy the War nickels. It is a stand alone set in the NGC registry. They can get pricey in 66FS and any Nickel that is 67 is always a chunk of change 

Edited August 11, 2022 by J P Mashoke

[Lem E]

On 8/11/2022 at 4:37 PM, Coinbuf said:

I vote for 38 through 45.

I thought about this as well. You would pretty much get the best of the best for early nickels and would include the entire war nickel set. 

[Coinbuf]

On 8/11/2022 at 2:42 PM, Lem E said:

I thought about this as well. You would pretty much get the best of the best for early nickels and would include the entire war nickel set. 

Plus its easier to find FS nickels in that date range, once you get into the 50's and 60's that becomes a very difficult and more expensive task.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

@Lem EIs this it?

[World Colonial]

On 8/11/2022 at 5:32 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

 And while I am not a coin investor or speculator, I think FS Jeffersons have some room to run.

Not me.  There are far more interesting coins available for the same money.

Also depends upon your time frame.  Longer term, I expect most post 1933 US coinage to sell for no more than the grading fee or nominal premiums to silver spot, even in grades up to MS-66.

As for your original question, I agree with War Nickels.  Not because it's silver but because it looks somewhat different and is actually a short set.

[Lem E]

On 8/11/2022 at 4:32 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Thanks gang.

@VKurtB I could go after the whole thing... but that's A LOT of coins.  I don't want to neglect my mains (Half Cents and Type).  My other side project was Mercury Proof Dimes, but I am almost complete there, so looking for my next side piece.  I like the fact that there are no "stoppers" in this set, and there are some very cool varieties.  And while I am not a coin investor or speculator, I think FS Jeffersons have some room to run.

@J P Mashoke and @Lem E I am not even trying to step into the ring with you two.  Your belts are safe.  I was thinking about the War Nickels (and probably still a good starting point for me), but I have a few earlier Jeff proofs and wanted to tie them in.

@Lem E What was the Jefferson book you posted a few months back? It was a white paperback book, with steps on it.  I think you said it was your favorite one.  Was it the Jefferson Nickel Analyst (I think that was it - and time for me to buy a book)?

@Mr.Bill347 Thanks for the response, but I want you to know that your vote counts as much as any other.  Rest assured that I will never take the title from anyone, so I welcome from everyone.

Yes the book is The Jefferson Nickel Analyst by Bernard A. Nagengast. This really is THE reference book for Nickel collectors and anyone who collects early Jeffs should know who he is and read this book. Light blue cover with AMAZING cover art.  These are the 3 reference books I have. The Red Book guide is also very good. If you read the Red Book guide you will notice very quickly that Nagengast is referenced quite a bit. The Doubled Die book I don’t use much because varieties and errors are not really my thing. However, it is an excellent book with tons of varieties listed. If you are into Jeffs with varieties, I recommend collecting early proofs. 

[Mr.Bill347]

I voted for 38-64 as well as 30%  of respondents

my Jeff nickel books are full. And JP got me looking at War nickels so I got all those and put them in a neat Capitol plastics holder.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Mr.Bill347

[RWB]

1938.

Short enough?

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 8/11/2022 at 6:01 PM, World Colonial said:

Not me.  There are far more interesting coins available for the same money.

Which coins do you find more interesting for the money?

On 8/11/2022 at 6:01 PM, World Colonial said:

Also depends upon your time frame.  Longer term, I expect most post 1933 US coinage to sell for no more than the grading fee or nominal premiums to silver spot, even in grades up to MS-66.

This is an interesting perspective, and "most post 1933" coins seems aggressive.  But, I would love too know more.  Are you basing that on demand?  Gradeflation over time impacting the value of MS66 and under coins? The fact that MS66 will not win registry awards (in most cases)?

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 8/11/2022 at 6:29 PM, RWB said:

1938.

Short enough?

Now - THAT I can complete 

[VKurtB]

On 8/11/2022 at 4:32 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Thanks gang.

@VKurtB I could go after the whole thing... but that's A LOT of coins.  I don't want to neglect my mains (Half Cents and Type).  My other side project was Mercury Proof Dimes, but I am almost complete there, so looking for my next side piece.  I like the fact that there are no "stoppers" in this set, and there are some very cool varieties.  And while I am not a coin investor or speculator, I think FS Jeffersons have some room to run.

@J P Mashoke and @Lem E I am not even trying to step into the ring with you two.  Your belts are safe.  I was thinking about the War Nickels (and probably still a good starting point for me), but I have a few earlier Jeff proofs and wanted to tie them in.

@Lem E What was the Jefferson book you posted a few months back? It was a white paperback book, with steps on it.  I think you said it was your favorite one.  Was it the Jefferson Nickel Analyst (I think that was it - and time for me to buy a book)?

@Mr.Bill347 Thanks for the response, but I want you to know that your vote counts as much as any other.  Rest assured that I will never take the title from anyone, so I welcome from everyone.

The nice thing about “warnicks” is that they are widely available in gaudy high grades, due to hoarding. 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 8/11/2022 at 7:18 PM, VKurtB said:

The nice thing about “warnicks” is that they are widely available in gaudy high grades, due to hoarding. 

Not sure how gaudy I can afford to get.  Guess we will find out. 

[VKurtB]

On 8/11/2022 at 6:44 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Not sure how gaudy I can afford to get.  Guess we will find out. 

More gaudy than you think. 

[World Colonial]

On 8/11/2022 at 6:31 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Which coins do you find more interesting for the money?

It's not what I personally find more interesting.  It's what other collectors do or will.

Any number of non-US coins across any price range.  Some or many US too, depending upon the price.  You didn't identify any specific dates or grades, but this is a strike designation and a label on a holder.

It's of interest to those building top registry sets and a low number who collect the series somewhat below top grades, but not otherwise at "full freight".  It's one thing to "cherry pick" this coinage at FV or a "nominal" price.  It's another entirely for a noticeably larger number to pay a (much) "high(er)" price for one already in a holder ("full freight").

It's also one thing to pay "nominal" prices for what are actually very common coins.  Again, it's another entirely to pay "high" prices for a coin in a series that actually has a very low collector preference.  The series is "popular" because the US has a very large collector base and it's affordable to modest budget collectors.  It's not actually preferred over hardly any US series, prior to SQ.  This is readily apparent by looking at the Heritage archives which provides confirmation for what is presumably common knowledge.

I see no catalyst to "meaningfully" increase the price level longer term. Look at SQ which doesn't appear to have done much of anything for Washington quarters, silver or clad.  It created a temporary bump (in a rising market) which to my knowledge ended before the program even concluded.  This series is priced higher versus before the program (like the US market generally), but to my knowledge well below the peak.

Every US collector is aware of it.  It's not "undiscovered", just like any other US series. The strike designation alone almost certainly isn't interesting enough either to motivate many to pay noticeably higher prices than now, unless the entire US market is moving up with it.

On 8/11/2022 at 6:31 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

This is an interesting perspective, and "most post 1933" coins seems aggressive.  But, I would love too know more.  Are you basing that on demand?  Gradeflation over time impacting the value of MS66 and under coins? The fact that MS66 will not win registry awards (in most cases)?

Yes, my inference of future demand.  But I don't want to take this thread in an entirely different direction, again.  I've written about this topic elsewhere on this forum and some on PCGS too.  Yes, it's a very unpopular view.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 8/11/2022 at 7:50 PM, World Colonial said:

... it's a very unpopular view.

I can't say a share the views, but I appreciate your perspective and sharing your viewpoints.  Thanks.

[VKurtB]

On 8/11/2022 at 6:50 PM, World Colonial said:

Look at SQ which doesn't appear to have done much of anything for Washington quarters, silver or clad.  It created a temporary bump (in a rising market) which to my knowledge ended before the program even concluded. 

There was a TEMPORARY bump in Washington / Eagle quarter prices about 5 or so years into the state quarter series, and it held fairly decently through 2008. Then Congress “jumped the shark” with later quarters and the bubble burst. Call it economics or call it mass psychology (same thing, really) but it was predictable. 

[Mr.Bill347]

Frankly Neophyte, I got all my BU war nickels somewhere around 30 each.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 8/11/2022 at 8:38 PM, Mr.Bill347 said:

Frankly Neophyte, I got all my BU war nickels somewhere around 30 each.

Good deal, Mr.Bill 

[VKurtB]

On 8/11/2022 at 7:38 PM, Mr.Bill347 said:

Frankly Neophyte, I got all my BU war nickels somewhere around 30 each.

Mine are in a Capital Plastics holder. They look slick together. 

[World Colonial]

On 8/11/2022 at 8:31 PM, VKurtB said:

There was a TEMPORARY bump in Washington / Eagle quarter prices about 5 or so years into the state quarter series, and it held fairly decently through 2008. Then Congress “jumped the shark” with later quarters and the bubble burst. Call it economics or call it mass psychology (same thing, really) but it was predictable. 

In my limited review of the Heritage archives, appears to have peaked around 2006.

I think it was predictable too in the sense that the prices would have declined, whether Congress did or didn't authorize a continuation of these seemingly never ending mostly mediocre design changes.

The reason?  The coins aren't interesting enough to enough collectors, not versus what the same money can buy in other coinage above a relatively nominal price point.  Almost no coins (if any) are priced in a vacuum where collectors will ignore all comparably (or lower) priced alternatives.

The same concept applies with this series.  It's a US series and most US collectors prefer US coins.  It's affordable to modest budget collectors or of interest as a "sideline" collection similar to the OP.  But as their primary interest, only to a minimal number of bigger budget collectors and even fewer "investors". 

As a US series, it's more liquid than the vast majority of non-US coins which is important to most collectors.  That's the primary advantage it has over a coin like the 1759 AU-MS Peru 1/2R I bought recently for about $300.  

Per the Heritage archives, the "earlier" date business strikes (1938-1964 as a dividing line using the old Whitman folders) have a lopsided collector preference over 1965 and later.  Concurrently, the number of collectors spending "noticeable" amounts must be really low.