$5 Indian Half Eagle & $20 Saint-Gauden Double Eagle Prices 1 1

[EagleRJO]

On 7/24/2022 at 8:05 AM, J P Mashoke said:

The gold coins are real nice but also one of the most common for counterfeiters that is why I always try to go for a graded piece. ...

Thanks for the heads up and yes, I am aware of that.  I understand it's particularly an issue with early gold quarter eagles and half eagles (great, the exact ones I like ... lol).  Even for common years and mint marks, which surprised me at first, but it makes sense.

Like other coins I collect, I prefer raw coins in general, hands-down, which are less expensive and for me more enjoyable to collect.  That is unless it's a really expensive coin where you really need the protection.  How do you hold that recent purchase of a nice shiny or interesting coin when it's locked away in a utilitarian, plastic coin coffin?  

I am comfortable getting lower to moderately priced raw coins from one of the larger dealers like Apmex, JDB and MCM which I don't think are going anywhere and have a reputation to protect, just in case one gets by the quality controls they have, because they do handle quite a lot of coins.  Etsy and eBay are a completely different story.  And about the larger dealers, has anyone heard of those guys ever selling a counterfeit coin and not making it right if it's discovered or doesn't grade out because of that?

[VKurtB]

I suggest we lighten up until the supposed Ugandan deposits are proven or disproven. If there is ANY truth to it, gold right now carries a HUGE downside risk. I’ll NEVER agree with @World Colonial’s obsession/fetish with credit, however. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/24/2022 at 10:34 PM, VKurtB said:

I suggest we lighten up until the supposed Ugandan deposits are proven or disproven. If there is ANY truth to it, gold right now carries a HUGE downside risk.

Sounds like Bre-X all over again.  

Even if the ore is legitimate, it'll be 15-20 years before an ounce ever comes out. 

[World Colonial]

On 7/24/2022 at 10:34 PM, VKurtB said:

I suggest we lighten up until the supposed Ugandan deposits are proven or disproven. If there is ANY truth to it, gold right now carries a HUGE downside risk. I’ll NEVER agree with @World Colonial’s obsession/fetish with credit, however. 

Likewise for me with your position.

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2022 at 1:24 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Sounds like Bre-X all over again.  

Even if the ore is legitimate, it'll be 15-20 years before an ounce ever comes out. 

Bre-X? That really didn’t involve a Head of State, but now that I think of it, I’m not sure if this is better or worse. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by VKurtB

[EagleRJO]

On 7/24/2022 at 10:34 PM, VKurtB said:

I suggest we lighten up until the supposed Ugandan deposits are proven or disproven. If there is ANY truth to it, gold right now carries a HUGE downside risk. 

For gold bullion I just don't see the significant downside risk you are referencing, at least for the short-term to mid-term.  I agree with GoldFinger that even if they have found a huge gold deposit in the ground, which I am taking with a huge grain of salt, it's going to be quite a while before they can get it out of the ground, processed into gold bars, and then added to existing bullion stock such that it could have an effect on the supply side of spot prices.

IDK about it being 15 to 20 years, but it's not going to be any time soon.  They have to first investigate and map out potential deposits, perform and analyze drill testing, re-map potential deposits based on the drill testing, perform more drill testing, etc. and then build the infrastructure needed to process and refine the gold.  They just don't have the capability to do that on their own either, so they would have to get some of the big boys involved which is more time.  I just don't see it as being another episode of the Discovery channel's Gold Rush .

Now gold futures or options, which I think of as legalized gambling, is another story.

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2022 at 11:41 AM, EagleRJO said:

I just don't see it as being another episode of the Discovery channel's Gold Rush 

I only occasionally watch that thing. Have they ever found anything to cover their costs? What equatorial Africa will probably have is massive supplies of only semi-voluntary labor. The Indiana Jones movie screenplay almost writes itself. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2022 at 11:41 AM, EagleRJO said:

which I am taking with a huge grain of salt,

Yes, all of our last three Presidents are in the running with Uganda’s for trustworthy statements, and that’s a VERY LOW bar. 

[EagleRJO]

On 7/24/2022 at 11:08 AM, World Colonial said:

I'm looking to own it again but only at noticeably lower prices.

Well, would you say there are "noticeably lower prices" right now?  I would say yes, but not necessarily agree that it's a good time to buy. Prices could drop further, and I don’t see a well-defined bottom pivot point yet.

Also, about the relative value of gold you guys have been bantering about, I think you really need to look at the historical inflation adjusted gold spot prices, and not how much gold it would take to buy certain items at various points in time.  I can't believe I am helping you guys continue this debate [] but attached is the CPI adjusted spot gold prices from 1950 to 2021.  Sorry Colonial, it doesn't go back farther than 1950 because the price of gold prior to around that time was artificially fixed from the early 1970's and back, so it really isn't meaningful in terms of discussing current valuation.

On 7/24/2022 at 11:04 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

My point is use the charts for long-term (2-10 years) price moves but for the MOST ACCURATE RECENT PRICING, go by recent sales.

Seems like to me the charts would be a better reference in general, even for current pricing, as they would even out bidding anomalies from say individual auctions where 2 people really want a coin, to the opposite end where maybe there is no reserve and less than anticipated interest.  So, the charts would smooth those out and also fill in the usual gaps for particular years/mints/grades as long as they are using reasonable valuation metrics.

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2022 at 11:41 AM, EagleRJO said:

Now gold futures or options, which I think of as legalized gambling, is another story.

Funny, that’s the only part of the metals market that I even halfway “respect” as legit. As the Oracle of Omaha would say, physical gold has next to zero utility, and it’s price is 100% driven by mass psychosis. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/25/2022 at 11:14 AM, VKurtB said:

Bre-X? That really didn’t involve a Head of State, but now that I think of it, I’m not sure if this is better or worse. 

Is Idi Amin in charge of this mine ? 

Edited July 25, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2022 at 3:46 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Is Idi Amin in charge of this mine ? 

He’s propping up the scrap heap of history. The new guy is a complete word salad. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/25/2022 at 12:41 PM, EagleRJO said:

IDK about it being 15 to 20 years, but it's not going to be any time soon.  They have to first investigate and map out potential deposits, perform and analyze drill testing, re-map potential deposits based on the drill testing, perform more drill testing, etc. and then build the infrastructure needed to process and refine the gold.  They just don't have the capability to do that on their own either, so they would have to get some of the big boys involved which is more time.  I just don't see it as being another episode of the Discovery channel's Gold Rush .

Uganda isn't the U.S. or even Argentina.  NOBODY has extensive business operations there. 

Do they even have ROADS leading to the area ?

Who's gonna drive the equipment to and from the pits ?

Do they need an environmental study ?

Will the World Bank or IMF be involved ?

Will private property rights be respected ?

Is this a Production Sharing Agreement or a straight royalty deal that work differently if gold trades for $1,200 an ounce vs. $2,400 an ounce?

What are the CAPX costs ?

What are the cash costs ?

It will be 15 years before any substantial gold comes out, I'd wager.  

Edited July 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

"Parliament early this year enacted a new mining law that, once signed by the president, will pave way for the creation of a state mining company.   The company will compulsorily acquire a 15% stake in every mining operation and investors will be required to sign a production-sharing agreement with the government. Previously investors were given mining production licenses on a first-come, first-served basis."

So the government will get 15% for free PLUS the upside via the PSA.  The foreign investors get the downside, plus some photo-ops. 

 

One gold mining trade publication went so far as to suggest the Ugandan government may have been confusing metric tons with ounces in its projections: 

The World Gold Council was asked for comment about the Uganda discovery and the plausibility of its numbers. The Council doesn’t typically comment on media reports of gold discoveries, but added:  “In the absence of formal ore reserve/resource declarations, we would not expect these ‘discoveries’ to contribute materially to mine supply in the foreseeable future.”  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/25/2022 at 3:04 PM, EagleRJO said:

Seems like to me the charts would be a better reference in general, even for current pricing, as they would even out bidding anomalies from say individual auctions where 2 people really want a coin, to the opposite end where maybe there is no reserve and less than anticipated interest.  So, the charts would smooth those out and also fill in the usual gaps for particular years/mints/grades as long as they are using reasonable valuation metrics.

No......you want to see ACTUAL SALES because it is unlikely to have outliers unless it is a very scarce or rare coin.  For instance, with 1924 Saints in MS-65 going for about $2,400.....you're not gonna see 1 auction only for $3,000 or even $2,800.

The chart will have an ending point or trend that reflects the most recent sales prices which MAY be multiple, liquid sales of the coin (good) or only 1 or 2 sales (bad).

[World Colonial]

On 7/25/2022 at 3:04 PM, EagleRJO said:

Well, would you say there are "noticeably lower prices" right now?  I would say yes, but not necessarily agree that it's a good time to buy. Prices could drop further, and I don’t see a well-defined bottom pivot point yet.

From the double top near $2070?  No, I would not consider that "noticeably lower".  It's not low enough where I want to buy it.

On 7/25/2022 at 3:04 PM, EagleRJO said:

Also, about the relative value of gold you guys have been bantering about, I think you really need to look at the historical inflation adjusted gold spot prices, and not how much gold it would take to buy certain items at various points in time.  I can't believe I am helping you guys continue this debate [] but attached is the CPI adjusted spot gold prices from 1950 to 2021.  Sorry Colonial, it doesn't go back farther than 1950 because the price of gold prior to around that time was artificially fixed from the early 1970's and back, so it really isn't meaningful in terms of discussing current valuation.

If the comparison is to any other commodity, nothing in the comparison changed.  There is no need to inflation adjust it.

I see your point when attempting to measure relative value for anything else, but no one would have bought gold back then at this theoretical price since it was much higher than the cost of buying Saints or $20 Liberty.

[EagleRJO]

On 7/25/2022 at 4:01 PM, VKurtB said:

As the Oracle of Omaha would say, physical gold has next to zero utility, and it’s price is 100% driven by mass psychosis. 

Bingo, you win the kewpie doll ... 

According to the WGC only about 40% of gold produced is held as an investment (e.g. bars and coins), with about the other 60% "consumed" for jewelry (50%) and general industry (10%).  But which sane person throws out old gold jewelry, which is typically held like an investment or reclaimed by melting it down and using it for other things.  And of the 10% "consumed" by general industry for things like electrical connectors, gold flakes or leaf's, fillings, etc., a part of that is also likely reclaimed whenever practical due to its value.  So, it's probably like 5% of the gold produced is actually "consumed" and the other 95% is used to perpetuate our mass psychosis.

 

[VKurtB]

On 7/25/2022 at 6:12 PM, EagleRJO said:

Bingo, you win the kewpie doll ... 

According to the WGC only about 40% of gold produced is held as an investment (e.g. bars and coins), with about the other 60% "consumed" for jewelry (50%) and general industry (10%).  But which sane person throws out old gold jewelry, which is typically held like an investment or reclaimed by melting it down and using it for other things.  And of the 10% "consumed" by general industry for things like electrical connectors, gold flakes or leaf's, fillings, etc., a part of that is also likely reclaimed whenever practical due to its value.  So, it's probably like 5% of the gold produced is actually "consumed" and the other 95% is used to perpetuate our mass psychosis.

 

Which explains this thread. 

[EagleRJO]

On 7/24/2022 at 11:04 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I was just letting you know what you probably are aware of: you can get some Mint State Saints for bullion or a modest premium, no need to drop into the AU range unless it's a scarcer year/mintmark.

I just realized that Heritage Auctions tacks on a 20% buyer's premium on all auction sales.  Wow, I will pass and stick with GC which is typically 10%.

Anyway, now back to the coins I am looking into.  I have been thinking about my plan to wait on getting 1 of 2 of the $5 half eagles till they come down in price, and after that look into maybe adding 1 or 2 of the $20 double eagles.  I might actually switch up my plan and scoop 1 or 2 Saints now, since the price of those seems to be more related to gold spot, which I think is low now, and then wait on adding 1 or 2 of the $5 half eagles since they seem to be priced more so based on demand, which seems high now, than on spot prices.

Where do I find these MS graded Saints for bullion price or close to it for some of the more common year/mints?  That would be around $1,670 to $1,700 [0.9675 oz x $1,725 current spot = $1,669], or only slightly above that as you noted.  The MS graded Saints I am seeing now are in the $2,100 to $2,200 range, or more, both thru dealers and auctions that I can see on GC.  Some help there would be much appreciated.

[VKurtB]

When gold ceased to be at the center of money, a whole bunch of human misery ended or at least was significantly reduced. There is no LOGICAL reason any particular element should be the center of money. There are tons of emotional ones. Just stop a moment and cogitate over the sheer folly of setting a gold to silver ratio of 15:1 or 16:1 or LITERALLY ANY NUMBER WHATSOEVER. Yet at the time those ratios were first set, they were utterly uncontroversial. I’ve come to the unshakable conclusion that every scintilla of international monetary policy pre-“Nixon closing the gold window” was an exercise in abject wrongheaded silliness. I got my first economics degree 45 years ago, and this has been my thesis every single day since then. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/25/2022 at 6:12 PM, World Colonial said:

I see your point when attempting to measure relative value for anything else, but no one would have bought gold back then at this theoretical price since it was much higher than the cost of buying Saints or $20 Liberty.

Buying gold was more expensive than buying gold coins ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/25/2022 at 7:36 PM, EagleRJO said:

Where do I find these MS graded Saints for bullion price or close to it for some of the more common year/mints?  That would be around $1,670 to $1,700 [0.9675 oz x $1,725 current spot = $1,669], or only slightly above that as you noted.  The MS graded Saints I am seeing now are in the $2,100 to $2,200 range, or more, both thru dealers and auctions that I can see on GC.  Some help there would be much appreciated.

You may need to go to a LCS or coin show.  I bought an MS-63 1915-S which trades like buillion for maybe $30 over spot.

Remember, buying in a holder with a grade -- even a low one -- will add $20-$30 to the cost.  Worth it, IMO. 

[EagleRJO]

On 7/25/2022 at 6:12 PM, World Colonial said:

[1] From the double top near $2070?  No, I would not consider that "noticeably lower"

[2] It's not low enough where I want to buy it.

Two separate and distinct things

On 7/25/2022 at 12:41 PM, EagleRJO said:

Now gold futures or options, which I think of as legalized gambling, is another story.

On 7/25/2022 at 4:01 PM, VKurtB said:

Funny, that’s the only part of the metals market that I even halfway “respect” as legit.

I think you have to go through one of the brokerage firms like TD Ameritrade to buy futures/options, but I'm not completely sure.  Doesn't make it any less risky.  And yea, there are some shady characters selling bullion, and the Chinese are getting super good at imitations of everything.  There are a select few dealers I "trust" to buy gold bullion from, and I only buy it if it has an assay.  In the words of one of my favorite presidents "Trust but verify". 

Edited July 26, 2022 by EagleRJO

[EagleRJO]

On 7/25/2022 at 10:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Remember, buying in a holder with a grade -- even a low one -- will add $20-$30 to the cost.  Worth it, IMO. 

If it's $20 to $30 over spot, that works.  A pair of tin snips will get that shiny baby out of the plastic slab coffin in no time flat.  

On 7/25/2022 at 10:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I bought an MS-63 1915-S which trades like [buillion] for maybe $30 over spot.

Still having trouble finding deals like that.  LCS are pricy here in NY due to COL, and no coin shows in sight.  If you guys see any of those Saints close to spot, a heads up would be much appreciated.

[EagleRJO]

 

I usually don't like slab coffins, even though it's needed sometimes, but this one for a Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle seems cool.  Also, for earlier double eagles does it matter if it's with or without a moto?

[World Colonial]

On 7/25/2022 at 10:26 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Buying gold was more expensive than buying gold coins ?

Buying gold coins was the only option between 1933-1974, legally, other than jewelry.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/25/2022 at 10:45 PM, EagleRJO said:

Still having trouble finding deals like that.  LCS are pricy here in NY due to COL, and no coin shows in sight.  If you guys see any of those Saints close to spot, a heads up would be much appreciated.

I think -- I have to check my records -- that when I say $30 over spot, Eagle, I mean actual cost and NOT adjusting for the 3% less gold.  So in theory that might add another 3% to the cost.  Again, from my perspective, since I value the (lower) grade and the holder, I'm OK with paying a total of $75 or so over spot.

If you look at the prices quoted in BARRON'S each week, some raw gold coins trade for a 5% premium to gold and others are flattish.  So IMO, a 5% premium isn't unreasonable especially if it's pre-1933 gold.....graded....and in a holder.

Anyway, that's me....everyone has their own likes and dislikes and buying limits. 

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/26/2022 at 8:26 AM, EagleRJO said:

I usually don't like slab coffins, even though it's needed sometimes, but this one for a Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle seems cool.  Also, for earlier double eagles does it matter if it's with or without a moto?

Not bad, I still prefer the actual NGC or PCGS.

The 2009 UHR's graded by NGC had a nice bearded side portrait of ASG on the label.

[EagleRJO]

On 7/26/2022 at 9:30 AM, World Colonial said:

Buying gold coins was the only option between 1933-1974, legally, other than jewelry.

I still can't believe that the US Government did that to people in 1933, mandating everyone turn in their gold bars at a fixed price of $20.67/oz, and then after they had "confiscated" everyone's gold at a low price they raised the fixed price to $35/oz which benefited them.  Really?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/26/2022 at 9:49 AM, EagleRJO said:

I still can't believe that the US Government did that to people in 1933, mandating everyone turn in their gold bars at a fixed price of $20.67/oz, and then after they had "confiscated" everyone's gold at a low price they raised the fixed price to $35/oz which benefited them.  Really?

Yup.