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Are Authentication and Grading companies "stuck in the mud?"
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68 posts in this topic

On 3/30/2022 at 4:08 PM, VKurtB said:

There are those who seriously want the ANA to become an accredited college to convey such degrees. They have zero idea how utterly expensive such an undertaking would be, but they ARE seriously talking about it. Better to stick with a certificate program, such as Microsoft does. That’s already well done with ANA’s “Numismatic Diploma” program. 

What are your thoughts on that program? I have been debating on doing it for a while now. 

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The concept of ANA offering any sort of an accredited degree in ANYTHING is far removed from reality. Presently, they can't begin to attempt to help collectors with anti-counterfeiting when the tools are available.

Truthfully, there are few degrees anywhere in "numismatics" except as part of archeology or history. A few places offer self-directed "degree" programs, but they carry no academic weight. Plus, the version practiced in the US is nowhere close to a science or serious topic of inquiry -- a hobby, yes, and a fine one.

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On 3/30/2022 at 9:33 PM, RWB said:

The concept of ANA offering any sort of an accredited degree in ANYTHING is far removed from reality. Presently, they can't begin to attempt to help collectors with anti-counterfeiting when the tools are available.

Truthfully, there are few degrees anywhere in "numismatics" except as part of archeology or history. A few places offer self-directed "degree" programs, but they carry no academic weight. Plus, the version practiced in the US is nowhere close to a science or serious topic of inquiry -- a hobby, yes, and a fine one.

...once again just a personal opinion that carries no serious weight....

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On 3/30/2022 at 8:33 PM, RWB said:

The concept of ANA offering any sort of an accredited degree in ANYTHING is far removed from reality. Presently, they can't begin to attempt to help collectors with anti-counterfeiting when the tools are available.

Truthfully, there are few degrees anywhere in "numismatics" except as part of archeology or history. A few places offer self-directed "degree" programs, but they carry no academic weight. Plus, the version practiced in the US is nowhere close to a science or serious topic of inquiry -- a hobby, yes, and a fine one.

The plain fact is that there are present members of the Board of Governors who are stuck on this idea and they have been pressuring Executive Director to implement it. It’s sheer madness, and I think this is one area where we agree. I spent literally HOURS discussing this at the F.U.N. show with Kim Kiick and she was quite upset about certain unnamed Board members’ insistence on it. Part of the culture at ANA is that it’s okay to gripe about “what”, but not rat out the “who” of controversial ideas. I have my own ideas, because I regularly speak with the vast majority of Board members individually. But I’ll also not rat out who. 

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On 3/30/2022 at 8:11 PM, Woods020 said:

What are your thoughts on that program? I have been debating on doing it for a while now. 

I love the numismatic diploma program, but you should know that a course on archive dumpster diving is NOT included in the curriculum. I think you’ll be better than fine without that. 

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On 3/29/2022 at 7:23 PM, VKurtB said:

I have no sympathy for those with the bucks to play in the big leagues but not the time. I support the 1950’s -1970’s system overwhelmingly with about 0.04% exceptions. 

Missed this thread earlier.

To @GoldFinger1969's point, it's another outcome of financialization.  Counterfeiting existed then like it does now, but it's a bigger risk in the last few decades due to the (much) higher price level.  Gold coinage has more problems with "doctoring" than other metals, but it's not a problem for most collectors because they don't buy gold coinage since they can't afford it.  Other problem coins (cleaning) somewhat similar financial risk to buying fakes.

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On 3/24/2022 at 12:21 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

In theory, outside of moderns and maybe a long inventory of foreign/ancients, most valuable domestic U.S. coins should already be graded/certified, so no future business possible.  Of course, there are always crack-outs. xD

Jeff Garrett wrote a similar opinion piece in Coin Week expressing your view.  Harvey Stack wrote a comment that his experience contradicted it.

If you've looked at the TPG data and Coin Facts estimates, quite a bit covering many US series even though I don't buy any of it, it's widely known that the TPG counts are distorted by resubmissions but if Coin Facts is directionally accurate, in most instances there are more ungraded than graded, though of course there is a wide variation depending upon the coin.  I'm referring to pre-1933 US below the highest grades.

As one example, the last time I checked, NGC and PCGS recorded 15 (including details coins) for the 1802 half dime.  The accepted estimate I recall is 35-40.  NGC had three and all are AU-50, probably the same coin. 

So, what happened to the others, as the estimate to my recollection was based upon identifying specific individual coins?  Some may have been lost, but I doubt it's 20-25.  Maybe some in the estimate are also duplicates, but still unlikely most.

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On 7/18/2022 at 11:01 AM, World Colonial said:

Jeff Garrett wrote a similar opinion piece in Coin Week expressing your view.  Harvey Stack wrote a comment that his experience contradicted it.

If you've looked at the TPG data and Coin Facts estimates, quite a bit covering many US series even though I don't buy any of it, it's widely known that the TPG counts are distorted by resubmissions but if Coin Facts is directionally accurate, in most instances there are more ungraded than graded, though of course there is a wide variation depending upon the coin.  I'm referring to pre-1933 US below the highest grades.

As one example, the last time I checked, NGC and PCGS recorded 15 (including details coins) for the 1802 half dime.  The accepted estimate I recall is 35-40.  NGC had three and all are AU-50, probably the same coin. 

So, what happened to the others, as the estimate to my recollection was based upon identifying specific individual coins?  Some may have been lost, but I doubt it's 20-25.  Maybe some in the estimate are also duplicates, but still unlikely most.

Stack is right, Garrett is woefully wrong. In the eastern mountain regions, including but not limited to Pennsylvania, there are VAST numbers of raw coins in collections held in families for generations. Garrett’s opinion is created by what he does. If all you did week after week was to set up at show after show, or do business in Kentucky, you’d see the same stuff over and over too. You have to hunt ducks where the ducks are. You have to get into the Trans-Appalachian towns at local estate auctions where this material comes out. The raw coins are out there. You have to go to THEM; for the most part, they ain’t gonna be coming to you. Watch the summer ANA show NEXT year, in Pittsburgh. Some new stuff will appear. Chicago is becoming a big honkin’ bore. 
 

Philly WOULD BE even better, but the hyper-corrupt labor unions suck all the value out of being there. 

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On 7/18/2022 at 12:18 PM, VKurtB said:

Stack is right, Garrett is woefully wrong. In the eastern mountain regions, including but not limited to Pennsylvania, there are VAST numbers of raw coins in collections held in families for generations. Garrett’s opinion is created by what he does. If all you did week after week was to set up at show after show, or do business in Kentucky, you’d see the same stuff over and over too. You have to hunt ducks where the ducks are. You have to get into the Trans-Appalachian towns at local estate auctions where this material comes out. The raw coins are out there. You have to go to THEM; for the most part, they ain’t gonna be coming to you. Watch the summer ANA show NEXT year, in Pittsburgh. Some new stuff will appear. Chicago is becoming a big honkin’ bore. 
 

Philly WOULD BE even better, but the hyper-corrupt labor unions suck all the value out of being there. 

Post 1933 US coinage is known to be common, outside of TPG era inventions. 

For pre-1933 US, most of it isn't worth the expense of grading either, but I still assume the supply is usually a lot more than is apparent now.  On the common coinage, I think Coin Facts is way off, understating the supply.  A few examples include:

Common date Bust halves have estimates of 10,000 or less, though it's not clear to me whether the date estimate includes varieties.  I'd guess 50,000 to 60,000 (minimum) is probably more accurate which is still only 1% of the mintage.

1921 and 1921D Mercury dimes are estimated at 2,000 and 3,500.  That's a fraction of 1% for two coins struck less than 20 years prior to the introduction of coin folders.  It's also comparable to the 1807 Draped Bust half estimated at 3000 which makes no sense.  I'd guess the actual number is at least 10X, though disproportionately in low grades.

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On 7/18/2022 at 6:26 PM, World Colonial said:

Post 1933 US coinage is known to be common, outside of TPG era inventions. 

For pre-1933 US, most of it isn't worth the expense of grading either, but I still assume the supply is usually a lot more than is apparent now.  On the common coinage, I think Coin Facts is way off, understating the supply.  A few examples include:

Common date Bust halves have estimates of 10,000 or less, though it's not clear to me whether the date estimate includes varieties.  I'd guess 50,000 to 60,000 (minimum) is probably more accurate which is still only 1% of the mintage.

1921 and 1921D Mercury dimes are estimated at 2,000 and 3,500.  That's a fraction of 1% for two coins struck less than 20 years prior to the introduction of coin folders.  It's also comparable to the 1807 Draped Bust half estimated at 3000 which makes no sense.  I'd guess the actual number is at least 10X, though disproportionately in low grades.

...we may be missing the point here, not all certified coins need be rare nor expensive...the reasons r diverse for having a coin certified, n its value is not the sole consideration for doing so...from a collectors point of view the cost of grading may be inconsequential, where as a dealer must consider a point of diminishing returns...as to the orig question at hand, its almost a certainty that the number of certified coins hasnt even approached the midpoint of all available coins, prob more like 15%...in the geographical areas vkurt mentioned, there may only be 1 or 2 certified coins in estate auctions of several hundred coins...and WC is also correct that virtually all post-'33 US coins r common n certification raises the question of warranted certification expenses...but i do not think that the tpgs r going to run out of items to certify...theres always the bubblegum from all those baseball cards if all else fails....

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On 7/18/2022 at 9:38 PM, zadok said:

...we may be missing the point here, not all certified coins need be rare nor expensive...the reasons r diverse for having a coin certified, n its value is not the sole consideration for doing so...from a collectors point of view the cost of grading may be inconsequential, where as a dealer must consider a point of diminishing returns...as to the orig question at hand, its almost a certainty that the number of certified coins hasnt even approached the midpoint of all available coins, prob more like 15%...in the geographical areas vkurt mentioned, there may only be 1 or 2 certified coins in estate auctions of several hundred coins...and WC is also correct that virtually all post-'33 US coins r common n certification raises the question of warranted certification expenses...but i do not think that the tpgs r going to run out of items to certify...theres always the bubblegum from all those baseball cards if all else fails....

The motive behind certification is something like 95% to 99% financial. It's overwhelmingly to improve marketability, to make it easier to sell the coin at a higher price, if not at the time of submission, then later.  For myself, I accumulate raw coins over time and send it in intermittently but the only need to do is so that if I "kick the bucket", my heirs can sell it easier.  Otherwise, it makes no difference.

Certification for registry set competition is a rounding error of total volume.  Certification for authentication is a lot more important for some coins than others but also predominantly correlated to the value.

The problem I see for the TPG longer term is that the cost of grading and postage is going to increase (noticeably) faster than prices for most coins.  Since 99%+ don't participate in registry sets and never will, there is no point in submitting a coin where the incremental value is less than the grading fee or even about the same.  

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On 7/19/2022 at 8:40 AM, World Colonial said:

The motive behind certification is something like 95% to 99% financial. It's overwhelmingly to improve marketability, to make it easier to sell the coin at a higher price, if not at the time of submission, then later.  For myself, I accumulate raw coins over time and send it in intermittently but the only need to do is so that if I "kick the bucket", my heirs can sell it easier.  Otherwise, it makes no difference.

Certification for registry set competition is a rounding error of total volume.  Certification for authentication is a lot more important for some coins than others but also predominantly correlated to the value.

The problem I see for the TPG longer term is that the cost of grading and postage is going to increase (noticeably) faster than prices for most coins.  Since 99%+ don't participate in registry sets and never will, there is no point in submitting a coin where the incremental value is less than the grading fee or even about the same.  

...theoretically u r correct, at least on paper, but in reality theories dont always translate...im sure the tpgs could provide a breakdown of "individual collector based" submitters versus "dealer business oriented"  submitters to get the real %  motivations for submissions, but dont hold ur breath on that...certification isnt a one size fits all determination...of course, the big elephant in the room is the drive for monetary gain on cert coins versus raw coins, but its not all consuming...the dealers still need the collectors to sell to, if there were no dealers n if the tpgs still existed (doubtful) the collectors would still cert their coins, just at a vastly reduced volume...it would look much like coin collecting in the '50-'80s just no 2 x 2s...as for the grading n postal costs, im not sure thats a factor, i for one dont give it any consideration, same as the price of milk n bread, if i want/need milk n bread i buy milk n bread...registry sets, as u mention a rounding error, very small numbers, just nice fluff for collectors to look at n show their pride n joys , self included....

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On 7/19/2022 at 10:04 AM, zadok said:

...theoretically u r correct, at least on paper, but in reality theories dont always translate...im sure the tpgs could provide a breakdown of "individual collector based" submitters versus "dealer business oriented"  submitters to get the real %  motivations for submissions, but dont hold ur breath on that...certification isnt a one size fits all determination...of course, the big elephant in the room is the drive for monetary gain on cert coins versus raw coins, but its not all consuming...the dealers still need the collectors to sell to, if there were no dealers n if the tpgs still existed (doubtful) the collectors would still cert their coins, just at a vastly reduced volume...it would look much like coin collecting in the '50-'80s just no 2 x 2s...as for the grading n postal costs, im not sure thats a factor, i for one dont give it any consideration, same as the price of milk n bread, if i want/need milk n bread i buy milk n bread...registry sets, as u mention a rounding error, very small numbers, just nice fluff for collectors to look at n show their pride n joys , self included....

My prior post is an inference but no, it doesn't apply to everyone.

Having a breakdown between collectors and dealers wouldn't confirm or contradict what I wrote.  It's apparent that dealers will usually submit a coin if the marginal sales price exceeds the all-in cost of submission (including to compensate for their time) but yes, you are correct that many collectors may submit just because they want their coins in a holder.

I don't think the volume is very high for this type of collector, not as a proportion of the total.  A noticeable number of collectors are also concurrently on-line sellers and I assume a noticeable proportion of collector submissions are actually for resale.

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On 7/19/2022 at 10:35 AM, World Colonial said:

My prior post is an inference but no, it doesn't apply to everyone.

Having a breakdown between collectors and dealers wouldn't confirm or contradict what I wrote.  It's apparent that dealers will usually submit a coin if the marginal sales price exceeds the all-in cost of submission (including to compensate for their time) but yes, you are correct that many collectors may submit just because they want their coins in a holder.

I don't think the volume is very high for this type of collector, not as a proportion of the total.  A noticeable number of collectors are also concurrently on-line sellers and I assume a noticeable proportion of collector submissions are actually for resale.

Keep in mind that THE MOST OFTEN GRADED COIN is the American Silver Eagle. And nothing else even comes close. You might want to check with Mr. Lange about your pre-1933 estimate. We are at a troubling place in which the absolute majority of slabbed coins have no business being in slabs, at the same time that the estimates of unslabbed coins that arguably should be, is woefully underestimated. I was once shown a complete Barber Half Dollar set in a Dansco album, and every coin in there was VF-XF or better, most much better. That was in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

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On 7/19/2022 at 2:59 PM, VKurtB said:

Keep in mind that THE MOST OFTEN GRADED COIN is the American Silver Eagle. And nothing else even comes close. 

I've looked at the TPG data extensively for US and somewhat for world coinage, depending upon the series and country.  I'm quite familiar with the data.  I'm aware that NCLT represents an outsized proportion of the pop data outside the US.

On 7/19/2022 at 2:59 PM, VKurtB said:

You might want to check with Mr. Lange about your pre-1933 estimate. We are at a troubling place in which the absolute majority of slabbed coins have no business being in slabs, at the same time that the estimates of unslabbed coins that arguably should be, is woefully underestimated. I was once shown a complete Barber Half Dollar set in a Dansco album, and every coin in there was VF-XF or better, most much better. That was in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.

I'm not sure what you mean here, since I thought I agree with your claim.

The TPG data is a lot less than PCGS Coin Facts estimates, even with duplicates.  I'n my prior post. i'm not just referring to later pre-1933 silver and base metal coinage either, since this coinage disproportionately isn't worth grading economically.  With coinage such as common Capped Bust halves, I think PCGS Coin Facts is far too low.  No way out of five or six million only 10,000 max survive.  After writing the above posts, I checked eBay and all the common dates have hundreds right now, including 508 raw for the 1834.  Most should never be sent in (mostly problem coins presumably) but the number which are eligible with high enough numerical grades is certainly a multiple of current counts.

My step-grandmother was someone who had one of those Pennsylvania type collections you write about.  I saw it once, in 1975. 

I don't know what happened to it, but she had at least one 10X10 SDB with most series from cents to half dollars starting with capped bust plus US copper starting in 1794.   No flowing hair or draped bust silver.  Hundreds of Virginia half pennies, large cents, half cents, and capped bust halves plus one or more Whitman folders of the rest.  I don't remember Liberty Seated or Barber halves plus Capped Bust or Liberty Seated quarters, but she had everything else. 

She was from "old" money born in 1906, never worked a day in her life, and never did without to my knowledge even in the Depression.  I infer her family acquired most if not everything out of circulation.  Nothing high grade but little "dreck" either.  Don't remember about key dates.  We were at the bank for a few hours and when she saw that I wanted to compile a list, would have nothing of it.  It would have taken weeks to catalogue it properly.

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I also don’t have any idea where PCGS Coin Facts pop estimates come from. It always seems so arbitrary and unreasonable. 

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On 7/19/2022 at 6:53 PM, VKurtB said:

I also don’t have any idea where PCGS Coin Facts pop estimates come from. It always seems so arbitrary and unreasonable. 

They probably use some kind of proprietary algorithim.  

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On 7/19/2022 at 6:36 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

They probably use some kind of proprietary algorithim.  

That would fit with their culture. 

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On 3/24/2022 at 10:47 AM, RWB said:

How do members think the authentication and grading companies will fare in the future?

IMO the grading services will fare pretty well down the road as long as the mint continues to spew forth tons of various every year in addition to all of the bullions coins, and if they also continue to come up with new grading gimmicks and promote their registry nonsense. 

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On 7/19/2022 at 6:53 PM, VKurtB said:

I also don’t have any idea where PCGS Coin Facts pop estimates come from. It always seems so arbitrary and unreasonable. 

I'd like to be able to analyze the data using a computer program, but not with Excel spreadsheets.  All I have done is manual look-up and it's inefficient and time consuming.

Some of the numbers come from actual research to my knowledge, where someone has actually made some attempt to itemize the survivors.  Like the 1794 dollars, 1796-1797 half dollars, and 1802 half dime.  The discrepancy between the 1802 half dime and these three other coins is noticeable though for what's available recently.

Other estimates I presume come from surveys, like for EAC and Capped Bust halves.  But if the Bust Half Nut Club provided the estimates, I don't see how the numbers could be so low.

The rest of it?  Presumably either a guesstimate or just "made up".  Many estimates for MS-65 or MS-60 on the earlier scarcer coinage I think might be too high, though I am in no position to say which ones.  Definitely duplicates on expensive coins in the TPG data, so not sure how many more are reasonably out there.

Others just make no sense where it's obvious no one performed a sanity check, like the one I gave of the 1807 DB half and the 1921(D) dimes.  It's ridiculous to claim a survival rate of 1/5 of 1% for two coins struck less than 20 years prior to the introduction of folder collecting.  Estimates for the IHC seem way too low (across the board) to my recollection.  An example is the 1894 where supposdely150 for MS-60+ remain.  Not only is this less than the current count, but the price doesn't support it or hardly any duplicates.  It would be a key date, if so few actually exist.  Another is the Liberty Seated series generally.  Many of these coins are legitimately scarce, but that's a combination of low mintages, limited MM collecting at the time, and geographical distance.  The supposed survival rate for the subsidiary mints seems way out of line with the Philadelphia coinage.  I don't think hardly any of the "P" coins have the estimates claimed, unless there is specific evidence to support it.

I am a lot more familiar with specific non-US coins.  Heritage estimated 50 for the 1941 Sarawak cent but the count is 46 with 37 MS and likely no duplicates.  It's a scarce coin but I'd estimate at least several hundred exist.  There is a thread on the PCGS forum covering the Chile Volcano Peso series where some of the estimates (taken from those who are supposed to know) are really low but the mintages are not, for the time.  I don't think this series is usually scarcer than the Peru pillar 4R where I estimate most dates probably have 50-100 but could be somewhat more.  It's 45-62 years older and the mintages are mostly lower too.

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On 7/19/2022 at 7:56 PM, World Colonial said:

I'd like to be able to analyze the data using a computer program, but not with Excel spreadsheets.  All I have done is manual look-up and it's inefficient and time consuming.

Some of the numbers come from actual research to my knowledge, where someone has actually made some attempt to itemize the survivors.  Like the 1794 dollars, 1796-1797 half dollars, and 1802 half dime.  The discrepancy between the 1802 half dime and these three other coins is noticeable though for what's available recently.

Other estimates I presume come from surveys, like for EAC and Capped Bust halves.  But if the Bust Half Nut Club provided the estimates, I don't see how the numbers could be so low.

The rest of it?  Presumably either a guesstimate or just "made up".  Many estimates for MS-65 or MS-60 on the earlier scarcer coinage I think might be too high, though I am in no position to say which ones.  Definitely duplicates on expensive coins in the TPG data, so not sure how many more are reasonably out there.

Others just make no sense where it's obvious no one performed a sanity check, like the one I gave of the 1807 DB half and the 1921(D) dimes.  It's ridiculous to claim a survival rate of 1/5 of 1% for two coins struck less than 20 years prior to the introduction of folder collecting.  Estimates for the IHC seem way too low (across the board) to my recollection.  An example is the 1894 where supposdely150 for MS-60+ remain.  Not only is this less than the current count, but the price doesn't support it or hardly any duplicates.  It would be a key date, if so few actually exist.  Another is the Liberty Seated series generally.  Many of these coins are legitimately scarce, but that's a combination of low mintages, limited MM collecting at the time, and geographical distance.  The supposed survival rate for the subsidiary mints seems way out of line with the Philadelphia coinage.  I don't think hardly any of the "P" coins have the estimates claimed, unless there is specific evidence to support it.

I am a lot more familiar with specific non-US coins.  Heritage estimated 50 for the 1941 Sarawak cent but the count is 46 with 37 MS and likely no duplicates.  It's a scarce coin but I'd estimate at least several hundred exist.  There is a thread on the PCGS forum covering the Chile Volcano Peso series where some of the estimates (taken from those who are supposed to know) are really low but the mintages are not, for the time.  I don't think this series is usually scarcer than the Peru pillar 4R where I estimate most dates probably have 50-100 but could be somewhat more.  It's 45-62 years older and the mintages are mostly lower too.

These sorts of unsure estimates tend to drive crazy newer people who dive in heavily all at once. “Investors” like certainty. They ain’t-a gonna get it in this field. If you can’t enjoy the journey more than the payoff, you’re not going to like coins. 

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On 7/19/2022 at 8:56 PM, World Colonial said:

I'd like to be able to analyze the data using a computer program, but not with Excel spreadsheets.  All I have done is manual look-up and it's inefficient and time consuming.

Some of the numbers come from actual research to my knowledge, where someone has actually made some attempt to itemize the survivors.  Like the 1794 dollars, 1796-1797 half dollars, and 1802 half dime.  The discrepancy between the 1802 half dime and these three other coins is noticeable though for what's available recently.

Other estimates I presume come from surveys, like for EAC and Capped Bust halves.  But if the Bust Half Nut Club provided the estimates, I don't see how the numbers could be so low.

The rest of it?  Presumably either a guesstimate or just "made up".  Many estimates for MS-65 or MS-60 on the earlier scarcer coinage I think might be too high, though I am in no position to say which ones.  Definitely duplicates on expensive coins in the TPG data, so not sure how many more are reasonably out there.

Others just make no sense where it's obvious no one performed a sanity check, like the one I gave of the 1807 DB half and the 1921(D) dimes.  It's ridiculous to claim a survival rate of 1/5 of 1% for two coins struck less than 20 years prior to the introduction of folder collecting.  Estimates for the IHC seem way too low (across the board) to my recollection.  An example is the 1894 where supposdely150 for MS-60+ remain.  Not only is this less than the current count, but the price doesn't support it or hardly any duplicates.  It would be a key date, if so few actually exist.  Another is the Liberty Seated series generally.  Many of these coins are legitimately scarce, but that's a combination of low mintages, limited MM collecting at the time, and geographical distance.  The supposed survival rate for the subsidiary mints seems way out of line with the Philadelphia coinage.  I don't think hardly any of the "P" coins have the estimates claimed, unless there is specific evidence to support it.

I am a lot more familiar with specific non-US coins.  Heritage estimated 50 for the 1941 Sarawak cent but the count is 46 with 37 MS and likely no duplicates.  It's a scarce coin but I'd estimate at least several hundred exist.  There is a thread on the PCGS forum covering the Chile Volcano Peso series where some of the estimates (taken from those who are supposed to know) are really low but the mintages are not, for the time.  I don't think this series is usually scarcer than the Peru pillar 4R where I estimate most dates probably have 50-100 but could be somewhat more.  It's 45-62 years older and the mintages are mostly lower too.

...see personal message sent....

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On 7/19/2022 at 9:49 PM, VKurtB said:

These sorts of unsure estimates tend to drive crazy newer people who dive in heavily all at once. “Investors” like certainty. They ain’t-a gonna get it in this field. If you can’t enjoy the journey more than the payoff, you’re not going to like coins. 

Survivorship isn't really relevant to most collectors or buyers because most of the coins they buy are so common any margin of error doesn't make any difference.  It mostly becomes relevant for the ranking (where the coin places in terms of quality or TPG grade) such as "top pops".

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On 7/19/2022 at 9:49 PM, VKurtB said:

These sorts of unsure estimates tend to drive crazy newer people who dive in heavily all at once. “Investors” like certainty. They ain’t-a gonna get it in this field. If you can’t enjoy the journey more than the payoff, you’re not going to like coins. 

Look, the double-counting drives me nuts too.  You have to ask yourself what coins and in what grades are likely to be re-submitted and which are not.  The more of the latter, the more likely the total population is just PCGS + NGC totals.  The more of the former, the more you need to estimate the double-counts and subtract them.

That said....even having this information which could be cloudy or off is better than nothing, which is what we had prior to the TPGs.

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Hard to believe I've been a thorn in peoples' sides for so long.

My take on "stuck in the mud" is tire-make and model used.

The NGC, 1911 Model  MS 66 boasts 57 pull-outs; it's PCGS counterpart, boasts 123 pull-outs, or roughly twice as many.

Me feels those unfamiliar with the hobby will conclude the NGC version, convertible runabout is rarer, for that year, than that of the PCGS. And yet the figures of all [restrike years] of the MS 67's are substantially rarer when compared with the sums racked up by NGC. I ascribe this to policy, a polite term used in mixed company to describe an agenda.

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On 7/20/2022 at 10:05 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Look, the double-counting drives me nuts too.  You have to ask yourself what coins and in what grades are likely to be re-submitted and which are not.  The more of the latter, the more likely the total population is just PCGS + NGC totals.  The more of the former, the more you need to estimate the double-counts and subtract them.

That said....even having this information which could be cloudy or off is better than nothing, which is what we had prior to the TPGs.

...true rarity had a way of making itself known by its absence...that hasnt changed, the biggest benefit of the tpg censuses is the grades....

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On 7/20/2022 at 9:49 AM, World Colonial said:

Survivorship isn't really relevant to most collectors or buyers because most of the coins they buy are so common any margin of error doesn't make any difference.  It mostly becomes relevant for the ranking (where the coin places in terms of quality or TPG grade) such as "top pops".

...slippery slope..."top pops" have a way of sliding down, just ask QA bout his 67 roosters....

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On 7/20/2022 at 10:19 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

Hard to believe I've been a thorn in peoples' sides for so long.

My take on "stuck in the mud" is tire-make and model used.

The NGC, 1911 Model  MS 66 boasts 57 pull-outs; it's PCGS counterpart, boasts 123 pull-outs, or roughly twice as many.

Me feels those unfamiliar with the hobby will conclude the NGC version, convertible runabout is rarer, for that year, than that of the PCGS. And yet the figures of all [restrike years] of the MS 67's are substantially rarer when compared with the sums racked up by NGC. I ascribe this to policy, a polite term used in mixed company to describe an agenda.

...i think the sample size has a lot to do with these censuses, i cant imagine anyone has the time to forment an agenda in this area....

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On 7/20/2022 at 12:55 PM, zadok said:

...true rarity had a way of making itself known by its absence...that hasnt changed, the biggest benefit of the tpg censuses is the grades....

A lot of apparent rarity or scarcity is just the low price.  It's hard or harder to buy but not necessarily or actually so because owners have limited incentive to sell it, some or many don't even know they have it, and dealers can't be bothered to market it, such as by listing it on their websites.

Most coins are a lot more common than is (apparently) evident from the supply for sale.  The experience of most collectors is not necessarily representative of the supply, unless the coin is known to be common.  Usually, it isn't.

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On 7/20/2022 at 10:05 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Look, the double-counting drives me nuts too.  You have to ask yourself what coins and in what grades are likely to be re-submitted and which are not.  

I think this is relatively easy to infer.  It's most often going to be the grades where there is a big price variance between two grades which is "meaningful".  This is the starting point.

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