What effects will Putin’s War have on the price of gold? 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/1/2022 at 2:08 PM, VKurtB said:

 My wife’s infernal wind chimes NEVER stop. 

Energy crisis averted !!!   We just need 1 trillion more of those chimes hooked up to the grid. 

Let's get a moving !!!!!! 

[VKurtB]

I’m more concerned about COPPER when it comes to Putin - the copper wires that should lead to the electrodes attached to his head and leg. The Green Mile kind. “Roll on two”. I’d prefer the one where the guy literally burns. I’ll pull the switch with no reservations whatsoever. 

[GoldFinger1969]

"....Putin has increasingly replaced trade in dollars with gold. From a record low of $2 billion worth of gold in 1995, Russia has piled up a mountain of it—now worth $130 billion, or 20% of total reserves. That’s equivalent to about 72 million 1 oz. gold coins, or 4.5 million pounds. Only the U.S., Germany and Italy hold more gold."

[Alex in PA.]

On 2/28/2022 at 8:20 PM, karl novak said:

That is correct.  Funny how some can't be bothered with looking up the actual facts...

Swing vote Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday night similarly called for the end of imports of Russian oil. 

“If there was ever a time to be energy independent, it is now. I am calling on the Administration and industry partners to take action immediately, up to and including banning crude oil imports from Russia,” Manchin said in a statement. 

"Must be the other 'Joe", eh?       

"Reports show that the U.S. is buying 650,000 barrels a day from Russia, a major concern after President Vladimir Putin's deadly invasion of Ukraine, where hundreds of civilians have been killed after six days of violence. Now, the White House faces bipartisan calls for an increase in domestic energy production."

Putin will only accept US Dollars or Bitcoin for the sale of oil.  How, and why, are we paying for this?

ABC News  2/27/2022

“Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Biden defended his decision to preserve access to Russian energy in order “to limit the pain the American people are feeling at the gas pump.” But some academics, lawmakers and other analysts say that excluding an industry at the heart of the Russian economy essentially limits the sanctions and could embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

NO PAIN – NO GAIN  Suck it up Yanks!    

 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Alex in PA.

[Alex in PA.]

On 3/1/2022 at 2:08 PM, VKurtB said:

that doesn’t include a big ol’ windmill in my back yard

Alabama would never allow that; fear that you might go Don Quixote on it.  

[GoldFinger1969]

Biden can replace the heavy Urals crude from Russia with more imports from Canada via the Keystone XL -- but he won't offend his Green Nuts like AOC etc.

Normally, Venezuela would supply the heavy crude but that country is stuck in the 1970's thanks to AOC's Socialist friends.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/2/2022 at 2:16 AM, Alex in PA. said:

Putin will only accept US Dollars or Bitcoin for the sale of oil.  How, and why, are we paying for this?

ABC News  2/27/2022

Putin has been the biggest proponent of de-dollarization so the fact that he now wants dollars is interesting.  Nothing else is worth anything I guess.

BitCoin won't de-Russia itself and tell exchanges not to service Russian accounts because it wants to live up to its freedom charter but tying itself to Putin is going to tarnish BitCoin too.

[Alex in PA.]

On 3/2/2022 at 10:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Nothing else is worth anything I guess.

I agree with you; Russian money is no better than Monopoly Money now.  Of course they may have some Yuan and other currencies from years gone by.  Gold and Silver perhaps.  Most Russian metals production is exported. Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of raw materials. Its market share of total global exports in nickel is estimated at around 49% – palladium: 42%, diamonds: 33%, aluminum: 26%, platinum: 13%, steel: 7% and copper: 4%..  Some countries will be greedy enough to buy silently.

[RWB]

Yeah, but what use to Russia are Myanmar Kyat or Cuban bananas? Their exchange banks are locked out of SWIFT.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/2/2022 at 11:44 AM, Alex in PA. said:

I agree with you; Russian money is no better than Monopoly Money now.  Of course they may have some Yuan and other currencies from years gone by.  Gold and Silver perhaps.  Most Russian metals production is exported. Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of raw materials. Its market share of total global exports in nickel is estimated at around 49% – palladium: 42%, diamonds: 33%, aluminum: 26%, platinum: 13%, steel: 7% and copper: 4%..  Some countries will be greedy enough to buy silently.

The reserves they have -- $700 billion -- are held at other Central Banks for the most part.  They can't access it now -- they are worthless.

Even if they HAD it in their custody -- as gold or dollars -- nobody will accept payment.  Even the gold -- they can't sell it unless they want to dribble a few million dollars a day out for 10 years.  Can't sell it all in bulk -- would crush the market and the only buyers with billions to buy it will NOT buy from Russia or the Russian Central Bank.

[GoldFinger1969]

Anybody who wants the best explanation of what is happening...and also a top foreign financial columnist (the best, IMO)....read the UK Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/a/ak-ao/ambrose-evans-pritchard/

It's one of the few news sites I pay to get and he's the only person I read there.

[Alex in PA.]

On 3/2/2022 at 12:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

They can't access it now -- they are worthless.

I'll be the first to admit you know more about this than I.  But....no matter what people say Putin is not a donkey.  We have no idea how long he has been planning this escapade of his and how much, for year(s), he stashed away.  We do know that Autocrats and Dictators love to keep large stashes of money and reserves (Gold, etc, etc) stored in the most secret of places.  We also have no idea who is buying Russian resources right now. Try to keep in mind that GREED has no allies.  They are saying on the news that Vlad the Impaler's 600 billion dollar war chest is now just about empty.  If true he won't be able to pay his soldiers and then.............

[VKurtB]

Always remember that our U.S. domestic “green” community isn’t harming our international security position by accident or as a side effect. It is the entire REASON the “green” movement exists at all. Do not ever doubt that for even a millisecond. 

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 3/2/2022 at 11:44 AM, Alex in PA. said:

Its market share of total global exports in nickel is estimated at around 49%

Nickel is through the roof right now, but it was trending up prior to the invasion. Looks like a 10-11 year high right now.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Fenntucky Mike
Spelling

[Alex in PA.]

On 3/2/2022 at 5:14 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Looks like a 10-11 year high right now.

Oil $110.68 per barrel.  Oil up and the Market up.  Don't see that often.

[RWB]

I bought my Toyota hybrid for long-term efficiency. It routinely gets 670 miles per tank of gas. Dropped my daughter at the train station in DC Monday....Got 62 mpg.

[Incorrect information removed.]

Now, I would not speculate on refining Russian gold. I suspect prices will increase because the sanctions effectively embargo Russian metals.

Edited March 3, 2022 by RWB

[tj96]

Russian oil is junk!  That's why it's cheap.  Not refined well at all, until it gets here.  Why?.....because they (the Russians) care zero/squat about pollution, emissions or the environment!   It burns black in Russia and Europe.  Plus, it's not as efficient as ours.  

[Alex in PA.]

People talk about these 'Sanctions' as if they were some kind of secret weapon.  There have been 'Sanctions' on Putin ever since George Bush and look how well they have worked.  Why not ask the Ukrainians about 'Sanctions' on Mother Russia.  Europe is STILL buying oil and gas from Russia and no, the Rads didn't turn off the pipeline.  And our great fearful leader still refuses to sanction Russian energy.   GREED has no allies.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/2/2022 at 5:14 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Nickel is through the roof right now, but it was trending up prior to the invasion. Looks like a 10-11 year high right now.

All commodities are in a 10-year global supercycle right now.  Geez, my mother's Chevron (CVX) doubled in 2 years. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/2/2022 at 6:27 PM, RWB said:

If our petroleum companies kept American production for domestic use, our prices would be much lower -- but so would the producer's profits. Our petroleum brings premium rates especially where refining capabilities are inefficient. Russian petroleum is much cheaper, but can only be "cracked" with superior technology. Hence, US companies buy cheap, refine expensively and sell high to Americans.

Oil is a globally traded commodity.  Price is set by WTI (U.S.) and Brent (global).  Our prices would NOT be lower and virtually all domestically sourced petroleum is used internally.  Some high-quality, low-sulphur "sweet" crude is exported because the premium, net of transport, is high enough to make it economically feasible by replacing it with "sour" high-sulphur crude which is cheaper even after paying transportation.

Discounts on crude can range from 10-50% depending on sulphur, sweet or sour, viscosity, etc.  Discounts on Western Canadian Sedimentary (WCS, oil sands) has often been $20/bbl. when WTI was $60/bbl.  Keystone was supposed to alleviate that problem.

Americans pay relatively low oil prices, get low gasoline prices, and have lower energy bills than most developed nations.  The amount of oil going out (minimal) vs. the much larger cheaper oil coming in is NOT an even swap or an oil company ploy.

We consume about 22 mm/bbl./day of oil.  Our production is only about 12 mm/bbl/day.  Exporting a few hundred thousand barrels means nothing. Only in natural gas are we a NET exporter.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/2/2022 at 6:00 PM, Alex in PA. said:

Oil $110.68 per barrel.  Oil up and the Market up.  Don't see that often.

As with interest rates, when something reverses correlation, it does it bigtime.  Right now, rising oil prices signify decent GDP growth hence the rising stock market and rising bond yields.

If oil prices get to the level of demand destruction -- about $125/bbl. or more -- you will see the market fall.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/2/2022 at 6:58 PM, tj96 said:

Russian oil is junk!  That's why it's cheap.  Not refined well at all, until it gets here.  Why?.....because they (the Russians) care zero/squat about pollution, emissions or the environment!   It burns black in Russia and Europe.  Plus, it's not as efficient as ours.  

They don't control the quality of the oil.  Urals blends are high-sulphur and the market adjusts accordingly:

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

Note that Russian oil trades at a $15/bbl. discount.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:01 PM, Alex in PA. said:

People talk about these 'Sanctions' as if they were some kind of secret weapon.  There have been 'Sanctions' on Putin ever since George Bush and look how well they have worked.  Why not ask the Ukrainians about 'Sanctions' on Mother Russia.  Europe is STILL buying oil and gas from Russia and no, the Rads didn't turn off the pipeline.  And our great fearful leader still refuses to sanction Russian energy.   GREED has no allies.

We haven't been serious before.  This time the entire world is turning Russia into a pariah state.

Only fear of being imprisoned or shot is causing Putin's oligarch friends to not denounce him and call for a reversal of the invasion.

[VKurtB]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

We haven't been serious before.  This time the entire world is turning Russia into a pariah state.

Only fear of being imprisoned or shot is causing Putin's oligarch friends to not denounce him and call for a reversal of the invasion.

How about inside assassins? My ability to speak Russian stinks, or I’d sign up. We still “owe them one” for 11/22/63. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

From my old colleague, probably the best oil analyst on the Street:

"...In the clearest sign yet that almost all buyers of Russian oil have left the market, the country’s flagship crude was offered on Tuesday at a record discount of $18.60 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. Even at that exceptional discount, several times larger than the usual couple of bucks difference, there were not a single bid for the barrels."

[Zebo]

On 3/3/2022 at 2:47 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

From my old colleague, probably the best oil analyst on the Street:

"...In the clearest sign yet that almost all buyers of Russian oil have left the market, the country’s flagship crude was offered on Tuesday at a record discount of $18.60 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. Even at that exceptional discount, several times larger than the usual couple of bucks difference, there were not a single bid for the barrels."

It  SEEMS as if the refiners are stepping up for American values and in support of the Ukrainian people and are not purchasing Russian oil as opposed to our (and I use the term very very loosely) government leadership. 

back to gold - there is a market for Russian gold, you just have to look under the table. The lower you look, the more you’ll find. If you do not look, you won’t find anything.

[GoldFinger1969]

This guy is looking for $2,700 in a year.....and $7,400 in 5 years !!!  

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Perfect-Storm-Is-Brewing-In-Gold-Markets.html

[thebeav]

On 3/2/2022 at 11:55 PM, VKurtB said:

How about inside assassins? My ability to speak Russian stinks, or I’d sign up. We still “owe them one” for 11/22/63. 

Lindsey Graham must be following you.......

[RWB]

Back to the original subject, please.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/4/2022 at 9:36 AM, RWB said:

Back to the original subject, please. 

I guess shooting at nuclear power plants isn't soothing the markets.  Gold up another $15 today to $1,950.