Most Undervalued and Overvalued Series? NO Wrong Answers - Just Your Thoughts???? 1 1

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

What do you think is the most undervalued series and the "best buy" for the money?  Consider mintage, survival and condition census relative to the cost to construct the set.

Then, there is the inverse question... what series is the most overvalued?

No wrong answers... it's all opinion.

My votes for undervalued are:

1. Half Cent
2. 3-Cent Silver
3. Classic Commemoratives

Edited November 22, 2021 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 11/22/2021 at 4:02 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

what series is the most overvalued?

ASE's, hands down.

On 11/22/2021 at 4:02 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

the most undervalued series

I'm with you on the half cents and classic commemoratives.

[Coinbuf]

Morgan dollars are the most overvalued imo, absolutely nothing rare about any year/mm.   A full set can be put together in an afternoon at any large show if you have the money.   Tough call on the undervalued right now as everything is moving up, but I guess I'd go with 3cn.   Not a series that much of anyone has any interest in these days, a type coin here or there and that is it.

[Mohawk]

Is this just U.S. or can I go beyond U.S.?  This is an important question before I submit an answer.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 11/22/2021 at 9:11 PM, Mohawk said:

Is this just U.S. or can I go beyond U.S.?  This is an important question before I submit an answer.

Well, I was thinking more in terms of US coins, but I certainly said that there are no wrong answers - and I stand by that.  shoot! 

I think I like old coins until I see your stuff @Mohawk.  Compared to your collection, mine was minted yesterday. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[Mohawk]

On 11/22/2021 at 9:21 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Well, I was thinking more in terms of US coins, but I certainly said that there are no wrong answers - and I stand by that.  shoot! 

I'm going to change my answer, now that I've thought about it.  U.S. coins do have a sustained demand beyond other numismatic markets, and that's unlikely to change at any point in the near future.  So that said, I'm going to simply say that the most overpriced U.S. coins are Morgan Dollars, Peace Dollars, Silver Eagles and common date Double Eagles in super grades.

As for underpriced U.S., I don't think many U.S. coins are presently undervalued, really.  They're either right where they should be or overpriced.  However, there are some U.S. currency notes that may be a little bit undervalued right now, but not by that much.  Most of those are right where they should be price-wise, in my opinion.  Some of the key date modern varieties of circulation series may also be undervalued presently as people are pumping a ton of money into the older stuff and Silver Eagles.  Things like 1970-S Small Date Cents, 1972 Type 2 Ike Dollars, 1981-S Type 2 Cents and Dollars are being a little bit neglected at the moment, so I think they may be a little undervalued right now.  Not hugely, but a little.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Mohawk
I thought about it and changed my vote.

[Woods020]

Overvalued:

agree with above. ASE followed closely by Morgans. 
 

Undervalued: 

tough call in today’s prices. 
36-42 proofs or some of the early half eagles (no motto). Oh I’ll also throw in half dimes. 

[Mohawk]

On 11/22/2021 at 10:37 PM, Woods020 said:

Overvalued:

agree with above. ASE followed closely by Morgans. 
 

Undervalued: 

tough call in today’s prices. 
36-42 proofs or some of the early half eagles (no motto). Oh I’ll also throw in half dimes. 

I didn't think about those 36-42 Proofs......they may be a bit undervalued, too, now that you mention it.  That's a good observation.

[Fenntucky Mike]

Undervalued world coins are anything that I collect, everyone should go all in on IoM coinage.  U.S. banknotes have been ticking up but not at the same rate as coins, just lost out on a nice brown back a couple of weeks ago. World banknotes have been going gangbusters, base on what I've been seeing. 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

On 11/23/2021 at 6:13 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Undervalued world coins are anything that I collect, everyone should go all in on IoM coinage.  U.S. banknotes have been ticking up but not at the same rate as coins, just lost out on a nice brown back a couple of weeks ago. World banknotes have been going gangbusters, base on what I've been seeing. 

I know next-to-nothing on notes, and about the same level on world coins.  My coin knowledge is pretty narrow, and I am not an "expert" in anything.  Thanks for opening the mental aperture. 

 

[GBrad]

On 11/22/2021 at 10:37 PM, Woods020 said:

Oh I’ll also throw in half dimes. 

Isn't that the same thing as a Nickel? (Sorry couldn't resist.....)

[Mohawk]

On 11/23/2021 at 6:13 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Undervalued world coins are anything that I collect, everyone should go all in on IoM coinage.  U.S. banknotes have been ticking up but not at the same rate as coins, just lost out on a nice brown back a couple of weeks ago. World banknotes have been going gangbusters, base on what I've been seeing. 

I've seen that with some world banknotes, too, Mike.  A lot of people seem to be digging hyperinflation notes from anywhere lately.  It's caused some Weimar German stuff to go CRAZY!!! Which makes me kind of sad because I've been into chasing German banknotes lately and Weimar notes are some of the coolest ones.  Ah well, most German Empire stuff is still very affordable.  It might be a good time for me to focus in there.

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

This may seem strange to say... but what about Franklin Half Dollars?  They are pseudo-classic, affordable... not "rare" per se, but when I ran the numbers on them, they seemed like a bargain.

[JKK]

The drag about "undervalued" is that it runs up against the markets, which establish wholesale and retail pricing. One might make a just argument that there is no such thing as an undervalued coin unless it is not exposed to secondary market forces. While I'm not a worshipper of unregulated free markets, that's beside the point; it is self-evident that a coin is worth what someone will give you for it. Otherwise, all the Counterfeitsy people slapping outlandish prices on parking lot coins as "rare mint errors" and DDD coins as "doubled dies" would be defining the coins' value, even if no one paid those prices. (Since only insufficiently_intelligent_individuals would pay those prices, they are hardly part of the value's mainstream. Any noob can step on a pricing land mine and lose a wallet in the blast. If you ask the seller of one of these if he'll pay even 25% of his retail for a similar piece, you'll have your answer about actual value.)

But what I think you are really asking is: Where is the best bang for the buck in collecting? The worst? That depends on what you collect and like. Relative to rarity, non-US coins are often available in much older and nicer condition than US coins that are contemporary. However, that's useless if you don't give a bodily_waste_product about, say, George III half crowns or silver dirhams.

People are shocked to learn that $12 is about the going reasonable retail rate for a decent late Roman bronze of Constantius II, mainly because you can't even give that guy's coins away. If you want one of Gaius (called Caligula by anyone around him who wanted to die a real bad death), best be prepared to pony up. Common ancients are shockingly affordable. Beautiful ancients with cachet are not. I hocked up $350 for a really nice Alexander tetradrachm, and it was a good deal. I was willing to pay that because not having a tet of any kind was more than a little embarrassing for an ancients collector, much like a hardcore Franklin collector without a Bugs Bunny (personally I think it makes Wise Ben look more like Dracula, but whatever). How much US coin could I have gotten for $350? I think I'm about halfway to a worn but authentic S-VDB.

One metric I find very useful is bullion prices, and no, not because I'm one of those people who thinks if he just has enough Krugerrands at Edward Jones, he will be able to sail through the Great Coming Cataclysm in wealthy comfort. Here's the thing: When you look at gold coins in particular, many common examples are available for near bullion prices. Some, however, are very rare (let's think of old Charlotte and Dahlonega stuff, none of which sells anywhere near melt). If most of the value is in the bullion, of course, buying those when bullion value is high is a spendy proposition, whereas that's a good time to buy those with high numismatic premiums. When bullion is low, of course, the equation flips. If you're buying a beautiful and old US $1 gold piece, which has just under 1/20 oz. of gold, today the gold is worth about $86. If the price is $400, you're mainly buying the numismatic premium. When the price of gold drops, you will lose some temporary value, but most of that will likely be the bullion portion, in which your loss is fairly limited. This can also work with silver to a lesser degree, lesser because we're never talking bullion amounts greater than an ounce, which over the last couple decades has definitely seesawed, but no more than a span of about $30 per ounce. So it really wouldn't much affect your decision as to which collectible silver you're buying unless it's very common (as in filling holes, like you only have ten Mercs and therefore most of a roll would have a good chance to increase your coverage of the series, and possibly the quality).