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Jim Bisognani: Saints Alive! A 1933 Double Eagle Soars to a Record $18.9 Million!
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70 posts in this topic

35 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

I expect most Americans to be noticeably poorer in the distant and maybe not so distant future.  Saints are a much better value relative to the spot price than equivalently available Morgan dollars.  Sure, the latter is "popular" but the premiums to spot are exorbitantly inflated for such common coins.

Agreed....and yes.....buying an investment grade Morgan even at $150 is a 400% premium to the underlying silver  content.  Yet you can buy a nice MS66 CAC common Saint for about 100% premium to gold, or without the CAC for about 75% more. 

Larger total expenditure, yes, but a better buy for those who can buy 4-figure (forget about 5-figure) coins.

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1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Agreed....and yes.....buying an investment grade Morgan even at $150 is a 400% premium to the underlying silver  content.  Yet you can buy a nice MS66 CAC common Saint for about 100% premium to gold, or without the CAC for about 75% more. 

Larger total expenditure, yes, but a better buy for those who can buy 4-figure (forget about 5-figure) coins.

why buy any saint? ... buying common date circ $2.50 or $5.00 gold much better hedge or modest speculative tool with 10%-15% premium...if insisting on buying $20 gold, circ liberties much better than saints, lower %s as well...absolutely nothing special bout saints for hedge buying.....

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1 minute ago, zadok said:

why buy any saint? ... buying common date circ $2.50 or $5.00 gold much better hedge or modest speculative tool with 10%-15% premium...if insisting on buying $20 gold, circ liberties much better than saints, lower %s as well...absolutely nothing special bout saints for hedge buying.....

Could be right, Zad....no argument.  Since I like collecting Saints, that's my bullion and numimsatic vehicle of choice.  But smaller denomations, if more affordable, and with lower premiums, could be a decent/better alternative.

Some of them also have interesting designs, though not as nice IMO as the Saint series.

Don't know about liquidity for the smaller coins, though.  Probably not bad but doubtful they are as good as that for Saints.

 

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29 minutes ago, gmarguli said:

Anyone who wants a cheap hedge and quick liquidity is not buying physical. 

What do you think.  Cryptocurrency perhaps.  Some new ones on the Market.

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3 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Could be right, Zad....no argument.  Since I like collecting Saints, that's my bullion and numimsatic vehicle of choice.  But smaller denomations, if more affordable, and with lower premiums, could be a decent/better alternative.

Some of them also have interesting designs, though not as nice IMO as the Saint series.

Don't know about liquidity for the smaller coins, though.  Probably not bad but doubtful they are as good as that for Saints.

 

in desperate times try buying loaf of bread n bottle of milk with a saint, mite be bit diff to find a vendor to make change, unless times really desperate n there is no change due...making change for a $2.50 qrt eagle bit simpler....same applies to liquidity on 100 oz silver ingots versus 10 oz or 1 oz, but more premium on smaller ingots.....

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29 minutes ago, gmarguli said:

I meant that those people who actually want to invest serious money in gold aren't going to want old coins. Ma & Pa America may buy a coin or two, but most will lean towards modern AGE or other pure items. Those with significant assets to invest will not want to touch physical gold at all. No need to. They will purchase derivative contracts, futures, options, EFT / mutual funds that track gold, or even stock in gold mining companies. 

And I'd never invest in cryptocurrency. I'd sooner invest in a Beanie Baby because at least I could burn it to keep warm if the world went to hell. The crypto crash is coming. 

i was under impression we were discussing survival assets n not investment assets??...diff rationales, survival be based on hard physical in hand n liquidity...pure investment assets if in coins, im going with rarer coins not bullion coins...to me bullion more of hedge asset .....

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gmarguli is correct.  More and more we have seen well know and newly established coin dealers offering IRAs in precious metals.  Some with the option to store the metal for you or you get to store it at a place of your choosing.

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On 6/16/2021 at 3:34 PM, VKurtB said:

That’s because you live in a world of nearly flawless gold pieces, not a very large world at all, other than in mint-issued capsules. 

:news:

"For cyin' out loud... you jinxed me! Now the one French 20-franc 🐓 gold piece I have i/f/o the graders at NGC right now, as we speak, was undoubtedly voted nyet. That's close to $90 down the drain. (NONE were in mint-issued capsules. All my 🐓 🐓 🐓 reside entombed in see-thru TPG encapsulations.)

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4 hours ago, gmarguli said:

Anyone who wants a cheap hedge and quick liquidity is not buying physical. 

Yeah, I kinda overlooked his inflation hedge thing.  I rather pay up a bit more for Saints even while buying them as a bullion subsitute.

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4 hours ago, Alex in PA. said:

What do you think.  Cryptocurrency perhaps.  Some new ones on the Market.

No way.....very few billionaires would buy crypto in size....too risky.

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2 hours ago, gmarguli said:

I meant that those people who actually want to invest serious money in gold aren't going to want old coins.

More knowledgeable folks who do some research will probably want Liberty's and Saints....but I agree, the person with little knowledge who only wants gold and fears a financial apocalypse probably isn't even aware of Saints and Liberty's as options as alterantives to moderns -- I know I wasn't until all the hullaballoo with the SS Central America and the 1933 Saint.

2 hours ago, gmarguli said:

They will purchase derivative contracts, futures, options, EFT / mutual funds that track gold, or even stock in gold mining companies. 

Not so sure about that.....I worked in 2 Private Banks and managed money for some of the wealthiest people in the country....not sure they want "paper" to hedge financial catastrophes or their own high net worth which is mostly "on paper." 

Most billionaires are NOT worried about hedging their fortunes, it's more likely to be folks with net worths of $10 MM - $250 MM.

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2 hours ago, zadok said:

i was under impression we were discussing survival assets n not investment assets??...diff rationales, survival be based on hard physical in hand n liquidity...pure investment assets if in coins, im going with rarer coins not bullion coins...to me bullion more of hedge asset .....

Gold and coins (numismatic) over most time periods do NOT work as investments. 

As inflation hedges ?  Well, the 2 time periods we have are unique:  1933-1971 when gold/silver prices were fixed and then zoomed for a decade after being supprssed for decades.....and 1980 to the present when inflation and interest rates collapsed for 40+ years.

You can probably cherry pick the data but I doubt either works as an inflation hedge over most of the recent time period.

However....if inflation goes up slowly and steadily (as opposed to a sudden burst and collapse) then I would think that gold/coins will do well.  And I do believe that by 2030 or so that we could see silver at $75/oz. and gold closer to $4,000 or $5,000.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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8 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

No way.....very few billionaires would buy crypto in size....too risky.

Remember the anecdote from the South Sea Bubble?  The IPO titled "an undertaking of great advantage but no one to know what it is"?  Purportedly it was for 5,000 GBP.

Crypto is backed by nothing, exists only in cyber space, and isn't useful as a functioning currency due to wild volatility.   A specific crypto like BTC has a limited supply but collectively the supply of all "cyber coins" is theoretically infinite.  It has value solely due to speculation.  

I hear the same thing about fiat currency but with USD or any other major currency, it must be accepted to pay debts, taxes, and if you want to do business with any government.  I have yet to hear of anyone who turned down a government contract because they refused to accept it.

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14 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

As inflation hedges ?  Well, the 2 time periods we have are unique:  1933-1971 when gold/silver prices were fixed and then zoomed for a decade after being supprssed for decades.....and 1980 to the present when inflation and interest rates collapsed for 40+ years.

You can probably cherry pick the data but I doubt either works as an inflation hedge over most of the recent time period.

However....if inflation goes up slowly and steadily (as opposed to a sudden burst and collapse) then I would think that gold/coins will do well.  And I do believe that by 2030 or so that we could see silver at $75/oz. and gold closer to $4,000 or $5,000.

In my lifetime, it's been all about timing.

If you bought in 1980, you are underwater adjusted for price changes, even by the CPI which many consider understated.

If you bought in 2011, you are about even nominally (about -5% as of today) and  negative adjusted for price changes.

If you bought in 1999 or 2001 and held to 2011, it outperformed practically every other asset class.  (Underperformed silver and a low proportion of individual stocks.)

If you bought some other time, it depends.

Silver is still underwater from 1980, NEGATIVE 48% in NOMINAL TERMS since 1980.  Hard to do worse than that and most couldn't do it if they tried.

There was inflation (measured by the CPI) each and every year since 1980.

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1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

No way.....very few billionaires would buy crypto in size....too risky.

In February 2013 1 BitCoin sold for $22.00.  Today it sells for $38,000.00 per BitCoin.  So maybe Billionaires don't buy it but at $38,000.00 a hit someone is and it isn't me.

2 July 2020, the Indian company 69 Shares started to quote a set of bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) on the Xtra trading system of the Deutsche Boerse.[131]

1 September 2020, the Wiener Börse listed its first 21 titles denominated in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, including the services of real-time quotation and securities settlement.[132]

October 2020, PayPal announced that it would allow its users to buy and sell bitcoin on its platform

Granted CryptoCurrency had it's ups and downs but if you would have bought 200 on 3 January 2009 imagine where you'd be today.  Me, I wouldn't buy 1 BitCoin or BitGold or Bit whatever.  I like to see and touch.  What you said about CryptoCurrencies was like to what we programmers said about Microsoft in 1981.  

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1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

And I do believe that by 2030 or so that we could see silver at $75/oz. and gold closer to $4,000 or $5,000.

I can't tell you what I had for breakfast nine hours ago but you can tell me what folks can reasonably expect to happen to precious metals nine years from now?  How?...why?..based on what?

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1 hour ago, Alex in PA. said:

What you said about CryptoCurrencies was like to what we programmers said about Microsoft in 1981.  

Microsoft went public in 1986. xD But point taken.

However, MSFT was a real company with a real product and earnings.  BitCoin is nothing but an entity in cyberspace.  No intrinsic value.

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25 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

I can't tell you what I had for breakfast nine hours ago but you can tell me what folks can reasonably expect to happen to precious metals nine years from now?  How?...why?..based on what?

I'm just making an educated guess -- that's what it is, a guess.  I don't think $10,000 by 2030 is a reasonable price but I think that a 50-100% rise in gold is feasible in 9 years.

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3 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Gold and coins (numismatic) over most time periods do NOT work as investments. 

As inflation hedges ?  Well, the 2 time periods we have are unique:  1933-1971 when gold/silver prices were fixed and then zoomed for a decade after being supprssed for decades.....and 1980 to the present when inflation and interest rates collapsed for 40+ years.

You can probably cherry pick the data but I doubt either works as an inflation hedge over most of the recent time period.

However....if inflation goes up slowly and steadily (as opposed to a sudden burst and collapse) then I would think that gold/coins will do well.  And I do believe that by 2030 or so that we could see silver at $75/oz. and gold closer to $4,000 or $5,000.

speaking from my own personal investments/investment strategy....my gold/silver/platinum hedges have accomplished exactly as they were intended n continue to do so (approx 11% of my hard assets)...the numismatic investment portion of my financial assets (approx 18%) reflect a return of 490% should i want to liquidate...to me its simply a matter of using common sense, being aware of the market n being focused on purchasing/selling timing...

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2 minutes ago, zadok said:

speaking from my own personal investments/investment strategy....my gold/silver/platinum hedges have accomplished exactly as they were intended n continue to do so (approx 11% of my hard assets)...the numismatic investment portion of my financial assets (approx 18%) reflect a return of 490% should i want to liquidate...to me its simply a matter of using common sense, being aware of the market n being focused on purchasing/selling timing...

I’ve been extremely lucky at timing my sales of generic gold and silver. I sold gold literally at the top of the 2011 peak - literally THE TOP DAY. I was slightly late on silver. I don’t ever buy in a “hot” market, only sell.

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38 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'm just making an educated guess -- that's what it is, a guess.  I don't think $10,000 by 2030 is a reasonable price but I think that a 50-100% rise in gold is feasible in 9 years.

Compared to the things people buy, gold isn't cheap now.  It is expensive.  It's advocates state it is cheap compared to the flood of fiat currency being "printed" but most of it is actually someone's debt, not money.   This doesn't mean that gold can't increase 150% to 400% by 2030, it just means that unless most of the things people need to buy increase at least as much, it will be more overpriced than it is now.

At some point, I think it will spike a lot higher.  However, longer term which may be beyond my lifespan, I expect it to lose a lot of relative value.

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4 hours ago, World Colonial said:

Compared to the things people buy, gold isn't cheap now.  It is expensive.  It's advocates state it is cheap compared to the flood of fiat currency being "printed" but most of it is actually someone's debt, not money.   This doesn't mean that gold can't increase 150% to 400% by 2030, it just means that unless most of the things people need to buy increase at least as much, it will be more overpriced than it is now.

At some point, I think it will spike a lot higher.  However, longer term which may be beyond my lifespan, I expect it to lose a lot of relative value.

Compared to "meme" stocks like AMC and GME and compared to other rare-Earths and some pricey growth stocks all in an environment of 0.25% Fed Funds.....I think gold isn't CHEAP but it sure isn't "expensive."

You have a trillion dollars in BitCoin and other digital fads although a bit less now that one of Mark Cuban's favorites apparently went to $0.00 as we all slept. xD  That has taken money out of the gold trade.

I still think that "strong hands" -- Indian, Chinese, and other emerging markets populations -- want to hold some gold based on tradition, customs, etc.  Ultimately, they will drive gold higher, not inflation and not a surge out of BitCoin or Central Bank buying or anything else.  This is a long-term "bid" under the market.

Hundreds of millions of people buying a few ounces each......a few million buying alot more.....a needle-mover. (thumbsu

 

 

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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Some are predicting sharp increases in gold and silver as a result of the standards/regulations set at the Basel 3 Accords. India is actively encouraging/peddling its own gold bullion program to its citizens in an effort to reduce imported gold and bolster it's own production/economy. 

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5 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Hundreds of millions of people buying a few ounces each......a few million buying alot more.....a needle-mover. (thumbsu

You dream.  Hundreds of millions of Americans? are spending their Covid checks on gold???  

Monetary policy controlled by the Federal Reserve is perhaps one of the biggest influencers on live gold prices in the market. Interest rates exert considerable influence on gold prices due to a factor known as "opportunity cost."    Low-interest rates yield nominal returns and real money losses. In situations like this, gold becomes a great investment option, as the opportunity cost for not relying on your interest-based assets is much lower.   Want to raise the price of a precious metal; stop mining it.  Who are these "millions" you refer to.  Not us so maybe the Europeans are in better shape.  We can't even get people to return to work; how will they buy gold or palladium?

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2 hours ago, Fenntucky Mike said:

Some are predicting sharp increases in gold and silver as a result of the standards/regulations set at the Basel 3 Accords.

Not sure that banking regulations would increase gold holdings.  A volatile, non-interest bearing asset.

2 hours ago, Fenntucky Mike said:

India is actively encouraging/peddling its own gold bullion program to its citizens in an effort to reduce imported gold and bolster it's own production/economy. 

Does India mine gold ?  Wasn't aware they had any productive mines.

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52 minutes ago, Alex in PA. said:

You dream.  Hundreds of millions of Americans? are spending their Covid checks on gold???  

Hundreds of millions of Asians and Africans (and maybe some Europeans) buying gold.  Not Americans.

Yes, I think it's a big growth area.

53 minutes ago, Alex in PA. said:

Monetary policy controlled by the Federal Reserve is perhaps one of the biggest influencers on live gold prices in the market. Interest rates exert considerable influence on gold prices due to a factor known as "opportunity cost."    Low-interest rates yield nominal returns and real money losses. In situations like this, gold becomes a great investment option, as the opportunity cost for not relying on your interest-based assets is much lower.   Want to raise the price of a precious metal; stop mining it.  Who are these "millions" you refer to.  Not us so maybe the Europeans are in better shape.  We can't even get people to return to work; how will they buy gold or palladium?

Interest rates might be going up but if inflation is rising, that should be a net positive.

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49 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Does India mine gold ?  Wasn't aware they had any productive mines.

Not sure if there are gold mines in India or if there are any Indian controlled/operated mines elsewhere in the world but I think the premise was more to be a sole distributor to the Indian people through Indian based refineries and slow individual purchases of gold from out of country sellers. Here's the article I saw it in. India Encourages Buying Cold Coins - Numismatic News 

49 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Not sure that banking regulations would increase gold holdings.  A volatile, non-interest bearing asset.

The premise was that if banks were made to hold reserves against their assets they might be forced to reduce trading in unallocated PMs, wiping out the trading of unallocated PMs in the London and NY markets and the U.S. could no longer suppress gold and silver prices. I'm not sure how true any of this is and if any of it will actually come to fruition, it was just one possible out come of Basle 3.

Will Basel 3 Boost Gold and Silver Prices? - Numismatic News

Why Basel 3 Accords May Not Boost Gold, Silver Prices - Numismatic News

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20 minutes ago, Fenntucky Mike said:

The premise was that if banks were made to hold reserves against their assets they might be forced to reduce trading in unallocated PMs, wiping out the trading of unallocated PMs in the London and NY markets and the U.S. could no longer suppress gold and silver prices. I'm not sure how true any of this is and if any of it will actually come to fruition, it was just one possible out come of Basle 3.

Will Basel 3 Boost Gold and Silver Prices? - Numismatic News

Why Basel 3 Accords May Not Boost Gold, Silver Prices - Numismatic News

Most buyers of the "paper" metal don't want physical metal.  Shorting "paper" gold and silver doesn't suppress the price, except temporarily.  For every short, there is a long.  Reducing trading in the "paper" metals doesn't automatically translate into increased demand for physical, especially when this institutional trading might not be connected to retail demand anyway.

If inflation increases noticeably, those who own the metals will be better off then those who don't, but owning the minimal amounts most either can or will buy isn't going to make any material difference to the financial position of more a minimal proportion of those buy it.

The physical metals aren't as liquid as most coin collectors and metal bugs seem to believe either, especially now.  Sure, it's easy to sell but the spreads aren't low relatively versus actually liquid assets.  Buy an ASE now and you immediately have a "paper" loss of 15% to 20%.  That's horrible liquidity.  Gold is 6% to 8% last I checked for AGE, much worse than previously.

Edited by World Colonial
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