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Auction Catalogs
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156 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

But what do you sat to a seasoned veteran like VKurtB who last year outright questioned the "desirability" of any collection that can be assembled in 90 days, or less?

To each his own.  All I know is, I enjoy my type collecting strategy:  Heritage....LCS......local coin show.....big regional show....FUN......Ebay.....Heritage....wash, rinse, repeat. (thumbsu

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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9 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

But what do you sat to a seasoned veteran like VKurtB who last year outright questioned the "desirability" of any collection that can be assembled in 90 days, or less?

I did not see that post but it reflects my sentiments.  Most collectors do not care (it's evident in what they collect) but if they do, get around this limitation by applying arbitrary and narrow criteria to make it more difficult.  This is done by expanding the series to a specialization (such as die states or die varieties), an arbitrary TPG number (for registry sets) or "eye appeal". 

I'm not knocking this practice but since you asked, that's my opinion and it's especially evident in US collecting, both in how collectors see it and definitely in how the industry promotes collecting  Read Coin Week, auction descriptions and TPG commentary.  They have successfully created the perception of "scarcity" in their marketing.

It would also be true of the more "recent" series in many other countries too (such as in Britain and Canada) except that the price level makes it a lot more difficult to buy the coins without looking somewhat or a lot harder.  If you can't find it on eBay, it's going to take some looking because it isn't likely to be listed on some dealer website even if they have it.  Too much work for too little money or the dealers doesn't attempt to market to collectors outside their country.

By definition, everyone cannot collect actually scarce or rare coins.  So it's only expected that most would and will not.

Edited by World Colonial
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9 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

To each his own.  All I know is, I enjoy my typec collecting strategy:  Heritage....LCS......local coin show.....big regional show....FUN......Ebay.....Heritage....wash, rinse, repeat. (thumbsu

I prefer most collectors to collect like you describe.  Otherwise, I'd never be able to afford to collect what I do now.   

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1 hour ago, World Colonial said:

I prefer most collectors to collect like you describe.  Otherwise, I'd never be able to afford to collect what I do now.   

If this hobby is about collecting and you are done collecting, then what's there to do except stare at the coins, right ? xD

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44 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

If this hobby is about collecting and you are done collecting, then what's there to do except stare at the coins, right ? xD

If I ever complete my current interest which I doubt will happen due to both lack of budget and coin availability, it isn't like I can't find something else to collect which interests me.

But if I do, it still won't be with coins or a series where I am likely to lose a noticeable proportion of my outlay if it is "material".  I expect most coins to lose noticeable value going forward, especially when adjusted for price changes.

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41 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

But if I do, it still won't be with coins or a series where I am likely to lose a noticeable proportion of my outlay if it is "material".  I expect most coins to lose noticeable value going forward, especially when adjusted for price changes.

Unless you started collecting prior to a bubble spike or a long up-move in PM's (like pre-1974), coins just don't appreciate for the most part.

I was looking at one of the most beautiful coins I have ever seen, the Duckor-Norweb Saint-Gaudens 1908-S MS67.  David Akers bought the coin in 1988 (not an exceptionally elevated time period price-wise) for about $40,000 and then it was sold in 2012 (again, not a bubble spike price or depressed price) for about $160,000.  That works out to about 6% a year, probably lower than CD's over that time, and behind bond funds and/or stocks or a balanced portfolio.

I don't think that trophy coins like some of the 1907 High Reliefs or UHRs have made money over the decades, either.  You'd have to go back to pre-1974 when the price of gold held all these coins down in price to probably make a great 40 or 50 year return.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Unless you started collecting prior to a bubble spike or a long up-move in PM's (like pre-1974), coins just don't appreciate for the most part.

I was looking at one of the most beautiful coins I have ever seen, the Duckor-Norweb Saint-Gaudens 1908-S MS67.  David Akers bought the coin in 1988 (not an exceptionally elevated time period price-wise) for about $40,000 and then it was sold in 2012 (again, not a bubble spike price or depressed price) for about $160,000.  That works out to about 6% a year, probably lower than CD's over that time, and behind bond funds and/or stocks or a balanced portfolio.

I don't think that trophy coins like some of the 1907 High Reliefs or UHRs have made money over the decades, either.  You'd have to go back to pre-1974 when the price of gold held all these coins down in price to probably make a great 40 or 50 year return.

I don't mind losing even a noticeable proportion of my outlay if I like the coin enough.  Like other collectors, I mostly don't.

I'll do this with my pillar collection because of what I have described.  I never bought it with the expectation of making money.  

I'm not about to do it with coins I can buy any day of the week which mostly have no distinction for the price.  If I ever want this type of coin, I'll buy it later.  If I wait long enough, I expect to be able to buy most of it for (a lot) less.  If I am wrong, it makes no difference to me.

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3 hours ago, World Colonial said:

If I ever complete my current interest which I doubt will happen due to both lack of budget and coin availability, it isn't like I can't find something else to collect which interests me.

But if I do, it still won't be with coins or a series where I am likely to lose a noticeable proportion of my outlay if it is "material".  I expect most coins to lose noticeable value going forward, especially when adjusted for price changes.

I long ago resigned myself to the very real probababiliy that I will unlikely to recover my total outlay.  I base this on the fact that certified coins on what I regard as the top leading economic indicators, census figures, continue to climb, dashing all my hopes for landing a unique example. That, and one other thing... An unknown member (to me) who quietly assembled a collection of Top Grade roosters which, but for the exception of thirty-plus collectors, debuted at #3 on NGC, effectively knocking everyone one else down one notch. I am still #1 @ PCGS, but his strategy and commitment cannot help but give the rest of us pause. This is the risk one takes when using titles like, "all-time finest" and "world's finest."

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38 minutes ago, Quintus Arrius said:

I long ago resigned myself to the very real probababiliy that I will unlikely to recover my total outlay.  I base this on the fact that certified coins on what I regard as the top leading economic indicators, census figures, continue to climb, dashing all my hopes for landing a unique example. That, and one other thing... An unknown member (to me) who quietly assembled a collection of Top Grade roosters which, but for the exception of thirty-plus collectors, debuted at #3 on NGC, effectively knocking everyone one else down one notch. I am still #1 @ PCGS, but his strategy and commitment cannot help but give the rest of us pause. This is the risk one takes when using titles like, "all-time finest" and "world's finest."

It's my assumption that only a very low proportion of the most widely collected European coinage dated from at minimum 1775 are even scarce.  With your series, it would only be if the mintages were abnormally low and a disproportionate percentage were also melted.  Otherwise, almost certainly too many collectors who would have saved it at the time.

With demand, most non-US series lack a high enough collector preference to generate sufficient scale financially.  Usually too large a supply for any realistic increase in the collector base.

To give one example of what can potentially happen, yesterday, Aureo & Calico sold a 1732 Mexico NGC XF-45 8 escudos (same size as US DE) for 15,000 Euro plus buyer's fee.  So, maybe about $22,000 "all-in".  Heritage sold the same coin back in August 2015 for about $54,000.  That's almost a 60% "haircut".  

Why did it happen?  Certainly not because the coin is common.  Heritage estimated less than 10 known of the variety and the other variety in about the same quality sold for $86,000 in the same sale.  Maybe it's the auction firm but other (mostly cheaper) higher quality coins did quite well.  

Most of these coins are just very illiquid.  It won't surprise me if a US dealer bought it and it shows up on their website at 100%+ mark-up.  I don't pay as close attention now but I used to see it, all the time. Somebody invariably buys it, possibly without realizing the auction history.

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Do you have a link to your Rooster Register, QA ?

Like you said, enjoy the coins.....tha's why we do this.  If you collect, when certain coins are available, you have to buy them THEN and THERE and not wait.  You might not get another chance for years -- or ever.  It's not like the stock market where you can ALWAYS buy that share of stock -- the only thing that changes is price.

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2 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Most of these coins are just very illiquid.  It won't surprise me if a US dealer bought it and it shows up on their website at 100%+ mark-up.  I don't pay as close attention now but I used to see it, all the time. Somebody invariably buys it, possibly without realizing the auction history.

Bingo....that Mexican gold coin description you gave is SO NICHE that since all you need are 2 serious bidders (or 3 or 4 or 5) that if 1 or a few disappear, the price can plummet.  

At least with Saints and Liberty DE's you have a SOMEWHAT more liquid market.  Not liquid like stocks, but you won't see prices for high-grade coins or rarities plunge overnight by 20-30%.

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1 minute ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

At least with Saints and Liberty DE's you have a SOMEWHAT more liquid market.  Not liquid like stocks, but you won't see prices for high-grade coins or rarities plunge overnight by 20-30%.

Very true.

About six years isn't "overnight" but I understand your point.  The difference with US coinage is that there are far more buyers who will usually "step in" to keep a coin from selling "too cheaply", even if they do not normally collect it.  Plenty of dealers who also do so for inventory.  I have seen a few high profile US coins sell for noticeably less than previously but it hasn't been often in my experience.

It's also why there is a lot of "investor" buying in generic pre-1933 coinage and with NCLT.  I have not looked at the premiums lately but one poster on PCGS mentioned that it's increased recently on pre-1933 gold.  I am only interested in buying it with both a low premium and at a noticeably lower spot price.

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The one thing I haven't mentioned is the rise in popularity of TPGS.  European coin emporiums have acknowledged U.S. collector demand for their services and have responded accordingly. Bear in mind, coin prices overseas already run higher.

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18 hours ago, World Colonial said:

About six years isn't "overnight" but I understand your point. 

And I wasn't clear enough that I wasn't referring to the drop in the 6-year time period you referenced WC, but you were smart enough to understand the point I was making anyway.xD  But since we both referenced that coin and the 6-year time period, it WAS a bigger drop than the price of gold bullion (which actually went UP) or other gold coins.

You also nailed it on dealers, inventory, and the investor class (including these Coinfomercials I see).  In fact, I didn't realize it at the time, but some of my clients and family members were buying the Saints in the 1990's (from Blanchard among others) as their gold coins of choice.  I think they were graded, probably low-60's I would guess.  I never inquired at the time as I wasn't in my "follow gold and coins closely" mode at the time.xD

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15 hours ago, Quintus Arrius said:

The one thing I haven't mentioned is the rise in popularity of TPGS.  European coin emporiums have acknowledged U.S. collector demand for their services and have responded accordingly. Bear in mind, coin prices overseas already run higher.

European coin dealers are now using the American TPGs for coins ?  Which coins -- European, ancients, what ?

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18 hours ago, World Colonial said:

It's also why there is a lot of "investor" buying in generic pre-1933 coinage and with NCLT.  I have not looked at the premiums lately but one poster on PCGS mentioned that it's increased recently on pre-1933 gold.  I am only interested in buying it with both a low premium and at a noticeably lower spot price.

Counterintuitively, when the absolute price of gold is LOW, the premiums are HIGH.  It's also usually a better "investment" to buy the bullion then unless you really want to add to coins for numismatic purposes.

Premiums tend to fall AFTER a big rise or during the drop when the exaggerated gold price predictions fail to materialize.  Sort of like how the P/E on cyclical stocks is HIGH during a recession (when you want to buy 'em) and LOW during the boom beriods when you should be selling.

Here's a chart that shows the premiums for MS65 Saint commons:

 

MS65 Saint Pricing 1997-2020.jpg

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40 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Counterintuitively, when the absolute price of gold is LOW, the premiums are HIGH.  It's also usually a better "investment" to buy the bullion then unless you really want to add to coins for numismatic purposes.

Premiums tend to fall AFTER a big rise or during the drop when the exaggerated gold price predictions fail to materialize.  Sort of like how the P/E on cyclical stocks is HIGH during a recession (when you want to buy 'em) and LOW during the boom beriods when you should be selling.

Good data, thanks.

I have noticed the trend you mention even on the common date (I think it is 1852 but might be 1851) US Assay Office Territorial gold which is a coin I would like to own one day.  Doesn't seem to have been much movement in a long time on AU-55 or AU-58 which is what I would buy.

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7 minutes ago, World Colonial said:

Good data, thanks. I have noticed the trend you mention even on the common date (I think it is 1852 but might be 1851) US Assay Office Territorial gold which is a coin I would like to own one day.  Doesn't seem to have been much movement in a long time on AU-55 or AU-58 which is what I would buy.

You're welcome.....that's a much less-traded coin I would think than MS65 common Saints, right ?  Sometimes prices can be sticky to the downside -- after rising with gold or numismatic activity on the upside -- as you probably are well aware.

The "X" factor in all of this is the ability today to sell stuff via the internet.  I guess this "teletype electronic service" that was active in the 1980's or 1990's helped dealers clear out inventory but how many LCS's had it ?  If you were an LCS and took on a few MS65 Saints or that US Assay coin you mentioned....and you didn't get someone into the shop to buy it....and you didn't go to coin shops....you had to call dealer buddies one-by-one or hold on to it.

The online exchanges (there's probably a dealer-only one besides the retail places like HA, SB, GC, and Ebay) are probably accessible to any dealer, B&M or working out of one's home.

I wonder if many coin dealers have closed up shop over the last year ?  I haven't seen any articles on that.  If anything, anectdotally, you would think business is up nicely (and expenses, such as trips to coin shows, down big).

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

European coin dealers are now using the American TPGs for coins ?  Which coins -- European, ancients, what ?

My periscope is aimed at you-know-what exclusively. Little by little, the long arc of all things numismatic, is embracing encapsulation for their coins.  I regret to say that to me, personally, choice- or gem- B.U. is -- as VKurtB has made clear -- not very helpful to anyone seeking upper-tier coins.  To quote that old musical, "If I were a rich man..." I would probably take a chance -- and have -- but am reluctant to do so after a gorgeous specimen with absolutely no fault to my eyes, described as FDC, a range of MS-65 to MS-70, came back MS-64+ by PCGS.  (As a favor to you, I will check the tony shops with top shelf merchandise in Europe and have a definitive answer for you tonite.)

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the european country dealers routinely avoid certification/slabbing for their own in country clients but like everything else they follow the money n for their US clients the TPG is the way to go....

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1 hour ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

QA, which European countries annually mint gold coins today ?  Or does the EU/ECB now do that for them ?

Good question.  The only ones I am familiar with are strictly bullion class. The  U.S., U.K., South Africa, Austria, Australia, etc.  There was a 10,000 gourd honoring Francois Duvalier which I had never seen before for sale on eBay and last residing in China of all places, but I am sure it was a limited edition struck for ceremonial purposes. 

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I went to Heritage and printed out a combination of the most recent AND highest-priced sales for every single Saint....may of the sales were from previous catalog and FUN (or other auctions) still held.....i.e., Price, Duckor, etc.

With the text now in Word/PDF format, I now have it on my smartphone.  As an added bonus, I have tons of David Akers commentaries on these coins, many from the FUN 2012 Duckor sale when he sadly passed away later that year.

Can't get these catalogs in PDF format, nor alot of my Dougle Eagle and Gold Coin books, either.  So at least I now have the Heritage commentaries available at my disposal for the finest coin sales going back 10-20 years along with general commentary on that year or mintmark.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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Non-Graded Coins:  Is it possible an entire collection never was submitted to PCGS or NGC?   I have the Browning/Dallas Bank Catalog from 2001 and all the coins are listed with descriptions like CHOICE UNCIRCULATED or GEM BRILLIANT UNCIRCULATED -- no PCGS or NGC or graded coins.

This was 15 years after the TPGs came into existence and even if the coins were originally collected without grades, I would have thought they'd have been submitted as by 2000 you knew if you wanted to maximize $$$ you had to have the coins slabbed and graded.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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5 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Non-Graded Coins:  Is it possible an entire collection never was submitted to PCGS or NGC?   I have the Browning/Dallas Bank Catalog from 2001 and all the coins are listed with descriptions like CHOICE UNCIRCULATED or GEM BRILLIANT UNCIRCULATED -- no PCGS or NGC or graded coins.

This was 15 years after the TPGs came into existence and even if the coins were originally collected without grades, I would have thought they'd have been submitted as by 2000 you knew if you wanted to maximize $$$ you had to have the coins slabbed and graded.

Good point.

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Bump....anybody purchased any interesting catalogs ?  I got the Thaine B. Price catalog prepared by David Akers (he opened his own numismatic shop) and it is in hardcover.  I also got a softcover copy so I don't have to wear out the hardcover binding.

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