ANA World's Fair of Money now officialy canceled 1 1

[Coinbuf]

Not long ago the ANA suspended/postponed the show in hopes of finding an alternate site, I received an email today that the show is now officially canceled for 2020.   I think most fully expected this outcome but still sad news. 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Coinbuf

[Zebo]

Let's hope next year's show will take place. 

[GoldFinger1969]

So glad I forced myself to go to FUN in January....could be the last "normal" coin convention in a long time.

[VKurtB]

21 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

So glad I forced myself to go to FUN in January....could be the last "normal" coin convention in a long time.

If next year’s winter FUN doesn’t happen, I’m going to be one pi$$ed pup. I’m ready to venture out now; the panic pornographers can bite me.

[kbbpll]

4 hours ago, VKurtB said:

I’m ready to venture out now; the panic pornographers can bite me.

I, on the other hand, am not going to "venture out" for the foreseeable future. 6% of the positives in my age group / state are dead. For a coin show? Nah.

[VKurtB]

17 minutes ago, kbbpll said:

I, on the other hand, am not going to "venture out" for the foreseeable future. 6% of the positives in my age group / state are dead. For a coin show? Nah.

I am the high risk demographic. I’m 65, have high blood pressure and Type 2 diabetes, have neurological deficits, and I’m blood type A+, and I still can‘t wait to get out there. I’m considering going “full gonzo” in being a shutdown skeptic militant. 

[RWB]

Wonder if there will be more layoffs at ANA HQ? The two 'conventions' generate considerable revenue through fees, commissions, and auction rights. Canceling both for 2020 would seem to be a blow to revenue.

[VKurtB]

4 hours ago, RWB said:

Wonder if there will be more layoffs at ANA HQ? The two 'conventions' generate considerable revenue through fees, commissions, and auction rights. Canceling both for 2020 would seem to be a blow to revenue.

A severe blow. Some Ben E. Keith stock is being sold to make ends meet for the budget year just past and more sales will be likely for the next. The "gravy train" is over. ANA is going to have to get "leaner and meaner".

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/17/2020 at 6:51 PM, VKurtB said:

If next year’s winter FUN doesn’t happen, I’m going to be one pi$$ed pup. I’m ready to venture out now; the panic pornographers can bite me.

I think it SHOULD and WILL, Kurt. 

You can't go 2 years without a show (in FUN's case, it would be 1 show cancelled unless you count Summer FUN.  But 2 years between January FUNs if they cancel FUN 2021).  With plenty of time, assuming the C-19 has receeded, folks will be able to plan and act accordingly.

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 7/17/2020 at 11:07 PM, kbbpll said:

I, on the other hand, am not going to "venture out" for the foreseeable future. 6% of the positives in my age group / state are dead. For a coin show? Nah.

That seems high.  As testing increases, the numbers come down.  Even that town in Italy has seen deaths drop 90% in 3 months.

[RWB]

Short Reply:

Standard models that work with European populations - including Italy - are less reliable in much of the US today. Overall the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast (Virginia through Maine has followed expected curves. This is largely because of state-wide leadership and clear messages by governors about what to do to manage infection rates and allow re-opening of local businesses. (The rate should be about 4% but anything under 5% controls the virus.) People followed, and most still follow, professional medical advice.)

Most states having problems now are ones that failed to follow sound medial advice, have weak or ignorant governors who do not give firm, scientifically reasoned guidance. (The notable exception is California with a young mobile population and too short a phase-in of reopening.)  In all cases, these epidemic-level states built up a large reservoir of infected, often asymptomatic, people during the spring. When re-opening began the occult infection rate was from 10 to 25 percent, leading to community contagion. Poor behavior by young people (20-30yrs mostly) combined with inadvertent ignorance and self-imposed dogmatic ignorance, has produced a dangerous situation for everyone - especially those in vulnerable groups.

Test results would be useful in contact tracing and community infection identification, but the present lag of 5 to 14 days makes the tests almost useless. This is because infected people will remain infected, but negative test people can become infected and spread the virus between test-date and result reception. Thus we can only know who/how many were positive on a date in the relatively distant past. A lot will happen in 5 to 14 days.

Treatment has improved since the New York situation and the death rate will be lower even as the infection rate continues high. But some survivors now present clotting and lesions on and within major organs, and the natal/prepubescent impacts are barely understood beyond the symptomatic level.

My Opinion - Short of a real personal emergency, there is no justification for exposing yourself to possibly infected persons, or to expose other persons to your possible infection. Not even if you test "negative." Coins will be here, but they are no fun if we are gone.

Edited July 20, 2020 by RWB

[LINCOLNMAN]

There is enough going on in Texas to be concerned. I personally know 5 people who have been infected. 1 in 10 Texans have been diagnosed. I'm concerned that I might infect others, I'm concerned about my family and my employees and I have a duty to them and to my investors. Collecting is a 100% selfish pursuit for me. This isn't about being a tough guy. Being careful is a moral decision that should be easy for anyone who cares at all about others and has a sense of responsibility to others who count on them. If a year from now we find that the mortality data has been overblown, so what? The give-up is insignificant and the downside is potentially catastrophic. 

[Big Nub numismatics]

I was surprised to see a (usually) large coin show near me still went on. It usually consists of 100-120 tables and dealers, but this year was an almost flop. Apparently many dealers weren't going based on risk, and collectors didn't come because they didn't think it was still taking place. I passed hoping for things to calm down in the following months.

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, Big Nub numismatics said:

I was surprised to see a (usually) large coin show near me still went on. It usually consists of 100-120 tables and dealers, but this year was an almost flop. Apparently many dealers weren't going based on risk, and collectors didn't come because they didn't think it was still taking place. I passed hoping for things to calm down in the following months.

Unless everybody came from a short drive, it's hard to believe anybody thought it would be able to be pulled off.

You travel from the wrong city or state, you may have to quarantine for a few days or weeks.

 

[Prethen]

I have serious doubts FUN will happen or be anything like anyone might imagine. Without a vaccine, we'll have to wait for any sort of big events like a major coin show.

[megan81]

On 7/17/2020 at 7:09 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

So glad I forced myself to go to FUN in January....could be the last "normal" coin convention in a long time.

The normalcy should return in 6 months time. Let's keep the fingers crossed.

[LINCOLNMAN]

Correction, make that 1 in 100. 

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, Prethen said:

I have serious doubts FUN will happen or be anything like anyone might imagine. Without a vaccine, we'll have to wait for any sort of big events like a major coin show.

We should have something in a few months -- vaccine or treatment -- plus the virus may burn itself out.  Also, we may never get a 2nd wave.

We'll know alot more by November. 

Still hopeful for FUN 2021. 

 

[Walkerfan]

Sad but not surprising. 

I am hoping to go to a show in late October. 

I will be severely disappointed, if it is cancelled, as well.  

[kbbpll]

13 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

the virus may burn itself out

Like colds and flu? I do appreciate hopeful/wishful thinking, but I think we'll be dealing with this for a long time. I suspect it will mutate to be less fatal (quickly killing your host is not a good strategy), and we'll tweak the vaccine every year like we do with influenza, but we're its reservoir now. A wildly successful life form doesn't just burn itself out. Humans arguably are wildly successful. It took us 100,000 years to populate every corner of the planet. This virus did it in 6 months. Think about that! Stamping out smallpox took generations and an international effort. I've only been to a few minor local coin shows, so it's not a big deal to me in that regard, but I sympathize with others.

[GoldFinger1969]

8 hours ago, kbbpll said:

Like colds and flu? 

Like the 1918-19 Spanish Flu.

[VKurtB]

9 hours ago, kbbpll said:

It took us 100,000 years to populate every corner of the planet. This virus did it in 6 months.

Darned airplanes. It's all their fault.

[VKurtB]

@GoldFinger1969 has it exactly right. It may very well mutate to a more manageable state. It may also mutate even more deadly. But there is no "human right" to an effective treatment or vaccine. Right now, things look pretty decent on the vaccine front, except for the proportion of the population that claims they'll never take it. I am prepared to "live with" this virus, and not let it take all the joy out of my life. If I get it, and I may have already, months ago, I have no way of knowing, then I get it. Staying locked down is not any kind of living I'm willing to accept.

 

My state, Pennsylvania, has among the LOWEST testing rates in the Republic, about 1.2 tests per 1000 population. That means just shy of 99.9% of Pennsylvanians have never been tested.

Edited July 22, 2020 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

Reminds me a bit of that scene in 1982's "The Thing" when Blaine does the simulations on that old PC and finds out that The Thing will assimilate every living person on Earth in a little over 3 years if it reaches civilization. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

Without extensive, timely testing, we cannot know the extent of infection, its areas of concentration, the sub-populations it impacts, and whether any vaccine is effective in reducing illness. South Korea demonstrated all this in March.

[RWB]

As for ANA - maybe this whole mess will force the kind of complete restructuring and change that has been necessary for so long! At present ANA is a failure in nearly all aspects of numismatics.

[VKurtB]

12 minutes ago, RWB said:

Without extensive, timely testing,

A status that we will be solidly in for a very, very long time. Too long. But not going to be remedied any time soon.

[Henri Charriere]

On the plus side, gold and silver are up, up, up

[RWB]

Increases in metal prices only make coin collecting less attractive to new followers. This, combined with the idiotic idea that coins have to be "graded" by some TPG - at an extorted price - to be "desirable," only pushes the hobby closer to oblivion.

[Henri Charriere]

28 minutes ago, RWB said:

Increases in metal prices only make coin collecting less attractive to new followers.

I don't know about that...  If I were new to the hobby/pursuit/obsession, I wonder whether I would find it any more attractive if prices were steady and stagnant -- or worse: in a slow, steady decline.  I bought a fresh off the press Englehardt 100 troy ounce silver bar once (when it was still possible to do so) in the early1980's for either five or six hundred dollars and when spot silver rose by a dollar and change in very short order, sold it for an immediate one hundred dollar profit. The Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market and drove the silver spot all the way to $50. an ounce (circa 1980) before the whole scheme collapsed causing them to lose $2B.  In coin collecting you never know what's going to happen, or when. You learn to roll with the punches. Nothing is guaranteed. If you are in it for the short haul you will likely become discouraged. You know what really hurts the hobby? This business with the U.S. Mint selling out of a product they know, or should have known, was wildly popular with collectors in just two hours. The ebb and flow of prices is natural; this sort of nonsense is not.