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Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book
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2,565 posts in this topic

On 12/17/2022 at 8:11 PM, zadok said:

...yes to question number 1...number 2, no...its the absence of a planchet in between....

Thanks Zad.......that makes it clearer.  I guess today's machines will NOT strike if they detect no planchet (metal) in between the dies, huh ?  The machines couldn't do that 100+ years ago I guess.

 

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BTW, if anybody wants to see that 1908 NM WF MS-66 OGH CAC zoomed-in....I just noticed the pics I attached for size-reasons are not enlarging on my PC. 

If that is the case with yours, you can find the larger ones on the Wells Fargo Thread....or I can post them here, too.

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On 12/17/2022 at 9:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Thanks Zad.......that makes it clearer.  I guess today's machines will NOT strike if they detect no planchet (metal) in between the dies, huh ?  The machines couldn't do that 100+ years ago I guess.

 

...no clue, im a coin collector n not into how they r made...to me thats like being a rare car collector n researching repair manuals all the time, i know several of the former but dont know any chilton repair guide collectors....

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On 12/18/2022 at 11:52 AM, zadok said:

...no clue, im a coin collector n not into how they r made...to me thats like being a rare car collector n researching repair manuals all the time, i know several of the former but dont know any chilton repair guide collectors....

It's probably covered in FMTM.  Might be a YouTube video on how coins were made 100+ years ago, too. (thumbsu

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On 12/18/2022 at 11:58 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's probably covered in FMTM.  Might be a YouTube video on how coins were made 100+ years ago, too. (thumbsu

...possibly, but i have no interest, dont consider it part of the hobby...to me that mite be a discussion for mechanical engineers...doubt tyrant, hansen et al ever read it either, if norweb, eliasberg, garrett et al alive not buyers either....its called coin collecting...

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On 12/18/2022 at 11:58 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It's probably covered in FMTM.  Might be a YouTube video on how coins were made 100+ years ago, too. (thumbsu

...u like corvettes correct?...ill send u a book on how general motors researched what steel was best to make the crankshafts out of....

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On 12/18/2022 at 12:16 PM, zadok said:

...possibly, but i have no interest, dont consider it part of the hobby...to me that mite be a discussion for mechanical engineers...doubt tyrant, hansen et al ever read it either, if norweb, eliasberg, garrett et al alive not buyers either....its called coin collecting...

Not coin collecting: coin collectors who acquire coins a cut above the rest, whatever the cost, are coin investors.

[I am simply a knowledgeable dues-paying.lurker.]  :whistle:

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Scarce & Condition Rarity Coin Prices, 2005-2022:  I'm just going by the NGC price graph (which could have bad data)....it's not as accurate as punching-up select sales on HA or GC.....but it appears that certain more-scarce or more-rare coins like a 1908 Motto (as opposed to a 1908 No Motto) have gradually been SINKING as their fat premiums to gold and/or a big rise about 15 years ago slowly dissipates...or more supply hits from Europe, U.S. SDBs, etc.

I do NOT see the same for pricey coins in condition rarity grades like a 1924 or 1927 Saint.  They never had the run-up 15 years ago and haven't had the same $$$ decline as gold fell and/or more supply hit from wherever the lst 5-10 years.

This seems to be the Saints -- and maybe it applies to other coins -- which are neither considered commons nor super-rare but those in-between as scarce or semi-scarce.

Do some of you vets agree ?

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Some examples of what I am talking about, along with a few that resisted this trend:

MCMVII HR....An MS-63 for $28,000 IN 2005-06 and now down to $22,000 for the most part last 15 years.  Trickle of supply from Europe may be weighing on prices last 5-7 years.

1908 Motto MS-65.....$23,000 to $28,000 from 2005-08....then a decline over the next decade-plus to $12,500 with a short spike to $18,000 in 2016.

1909/08.....flattish give/take a few hundred dollars north or south of $5,000 for an MS-63.

1922....$4,000 give or take 20% higher/lower since 2005 for an MS-65.

1928....MS-65 went for $1,500 back in 2006 to 2009 peak of $2,800 and tracks gold since to current $2,500.  MS-67 went for about $10,000 in 2006 to $14,000 in recent years but recent spike in late-2022 to $20,000 could be an outlier or bad data.

1929 AU58....$10,000 15 years ago....$20,000 today; MS-63 from $23,000 to $42,000 today; MS-65 from $45,000 to $113,000 a few years later and $85,000 today.

1932.....An AU-58 went for $18,000 15 years ago and has been steady at about $30,000 last few years. 

For me, I find it fascinating and interesting to check the long-term charts and graphs of coin prices over time...you can see the movements along with the gold price....reaction to anomalies in the sales price....how various years and mintages responded to big or small hoards....etc.

I find it somewhat analagous to how the stock market "burns off" the excess of a bubble....you initially have the sky-high valuation collapse of its own weight....then the valuation falls....it bumps along a bottom.....continues to decline at a slower rate....the whole process can take 10-12 years, sometimes longer.  Gold itself has exhibited this pattern.

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On 12/21/2022 at 6:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Can someone expound on "die pair vs. die state" ?

   These terms are most commonly used by collectors of colonial and early (pre-1837 or so) U.S. coins, on which the handmade nature of the dies from separate punches for letters, numbers and devices enables the relatively easy identification of the dies from which a particular coin was made. These dies were also subject to rapid wear but for reasons of economy were often used until they shattered.

  The term "die pair" refers to the pair of dies (obverse and reverse) from which a coin was struck. For example, what is referred to as obverse A of a particular date of large cent might have been paired with reverses A, C, and F at different points in the obverse die's use, with the resulting varieties being referred to as die pairs A-A, A-C, and A-F as well as by their usual Sheldon, Newcomb, or other reference numbers. The different pairings are sometimes referred to as "die marriages".

  The term "die state" refers to the condition of the dies from which a coin of a particular variety was struck. An early die state would usually be a coin struck early in the use of the dies showing few or no die breaks or clashes and little or no die erosion or other signs of wear on the dies.  A middle die state would be identified by cracks, clash marks, and/or other signs of die wear in particular places and of particular sizes or severities.  A late die state would be identified by more serious cracks that may have culminated in pieces of the die falling out resulting in blobs on the coin called "cuds". (In some cases, the mint tried to extend the life of dies by polishing or grinding them down to remove clash marks, while also removing some design details, with coins struck from these reprocessed dies also identified as die states.) The "terminal" die state would be the latest die state known to exist, with the dies apparently about to shatter. For some issues, researchers have described a large number of die states. 

   I'm not sure to what post in this topic this inquiry relates.  St. Gaudens double eagles aren't usually collected by die pairs or states, although they are known to exhibit die cracks.  I've never seen one with clash marks, but they probably exist. Clash marks occur on coins minted to this day, although they aren't as common as they were on older series.

Edited by Sandon
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On 12/21/2022 at 7:06 PM, Sandon said:

I'm not sure to what post in this topic this inquiry relates.  St. Gaudens double eagles aren't usually collected by die pairs or states, although they are known to exhibit die cracks.  I've never seen one with clash marks, but they probably exist. Clash marks occur on coins minted to this day, although they aren't as common as they were on older series.

Thanks for the info, Sandon....I have actually been reading about Liberty Double Eagles of late (gonna be meeting a few friends/relatives who collect over the Holidays and wanted to be able to converse with them xD) and it was regarding shipwrecked vs. non-shipwrecked coin surfaces on some Liberty DEs:

"....I don’t believe that the original surface coins are from a different die pair than the seawater coins; just a different die state."

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1921 vs. 1922 Saint:  I think it is fascinating how historical, financial, and economic events can make HUGE differences in how gold coinage was minted....used....travelled....saved....preserved....from-year-to-year.  This is the background that I LOVE to read about with regards to Saints. :)  

You see that big change around inflection points like recessions or panics....wars....re-opening of foreign trade...etc.

In 1921, you were still suffering the effects of WW I and the Versailles Treaty.  In the U.S., an overlooked very steep recession caused by returning GI's hit in 1921.  James Grant has chronicled this unique recession ("The Forgotten Depression..1921: The Crash That Cured Itself") a mini-depression that was ended by allowing prices and wages to adjust rather than have fiscal or monetary largesse come to the rescue.

RWB and other estimates say that the 1921 Saint has about 175 total survivors with only 4 above MS-65 and 22 in total MS-63 and up.   As Akers has said, the 1921 has moved less than any other coin in the rankings over 80 years and in top condition rarity it is more rare than even the 1927-D. 

Contrast that with the 1922, only 1 year removed from WW I, Versailles, and the mini-Depression of 1921:  over 1,500 coins graded MS-65 and almost 60,000 MS-63 and above.  That's a HUGE increase over the 1921, even when you adjust for the increased mintage of the 1922 over the 1921 (1.375 MM vs. 528.5K). 

The 1921's remained "trapped" in the U.S. and were in sub-Treasuries ready to be melted in 1933-37.  But the 1922 was widely exported as economies bounced back along with world trade and plenty were brought back in the 1940's, 1950's, and 1960's during The Great Repatriation from Europe and South/Central America.

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A 1910-D MS-66+ CAC is for sale over on GC.....label says "Elite"......EC, I presume that is your coin ?

Are you in possession of or seeking a coin of higher value for registry points ?  

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On 1/3/2023 at 12:50 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

A 1910-D MS-66+ CAC is for sale over on GC.....label says "Elite"......EC, I presume that is your coin ?

Are you in possession of or seeking a coin of higher value for registry points ?  

Yes, that's my coin. I already have one with a higher grade. So selling my duplicates.

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On 3/18/2022 at 7:43 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

"....Breen may have confused the 1931-D group with a hoard of 1928 double eagles (25 pieces in an original bank bag) that surfaced in 1985 in Elyria, Ohio."

For those of you who didn't go back 20-plus pages but were interested in that entire bag of 1928 Saint Double Eagles (250 of 'em) that got stolen from the Philadelphia Mint in 1933....that mini-Hoard reference above is VERY intriguing.

I know of no other hoard of DEs that was found in original bank bags (even the Wells Fargo 1908 No-Motto hoard had been re-bagged in the 1960's).

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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According to T Louis Comparette, Curator of the Philadelphia Mint Cabinet, 1921 DE were struck only for reserve purposes, and not intended for immediate distribution. (He was able to get a few in December 1921for Godard and others for whom he supplied new coins direct.) The situation changed a few months later and by spring 1922s were available to Comparette for private distribution to museums and large private collections. 1921s trickled out later.

Comparette kicked to bucket in June 1922, the Cabinet was soon closed to visitors, and then turned over to the Smithsonian in a sloppy 1823 transaction without a complete inventory. Director Moy finally signed the official transfer last decade.

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On 1/7/2023 at 1:05 PM, RWB said:

According to T Louis Comparette, Curator of the Philadelphia Mint Cabinet, 1921 DE were struck only for reserve purposes, and not intended for immediate distribution. (He was able to get a few in December 1921for Godard and others for whom he supplied new coins direct.) The situation changed a few months later and by spring 1922s were available to Comparette for private distribution to museums and large private collections. 1921s trickled out later.

Yeah, those DEs were struck in late-December 2021.  I think the latest batch ever struck.  (thumbsu

I'm awaiting my copy of James Grant's "The Forgotten Depression, 1921:  The Crash That Cured Itself."   This is one of the least-covered and researched downturns because it follows WW I and pre-dates The Roaring Twenties.  It's possible he will say something about gold and maybe even Double Eagles in the book as Grant is a hard-money advocate.

Restricting the issuance of (gold) Double Eagles is akin to tight money policies though I don't know if it was more cause or effect back then as the FRB had been formed only 8 years earlier.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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On 1/7/2023 at 3:26 PM, RWB said:

The only demand for DE was for export, so it didn't matter if they were "held as reserves" or not. This is much like the D and S mints later on.

Agreed.....I wonder if the lack of demand for gold in general and DEs in particular was a result of the economic downturn that year.

I'll know in a few days/weeks once I get/read the book. (thumbsu

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No. It was part of normal behavior. Much like silver dollars, paper equivalents were much more convenient. And...paper was a precise quantity -- wear did not matter.

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On 1/7/2023 at 4:38 PM, RWB said:

No. It was part of normal behavior. Much like silver dollars, paper equivalents were much more convenient. And...paper was a precise quantity -- wear did not matter.

Gold demand in foreign trade dried up when trade and economic conditions turned south...that was what I was wondering about domestically with the 1921's....if their late release wasn't needed because demand was down....and/or..... if the lack of gold DEs itself could have been a depressing factor.  It's both a cause-and-effect thing sort of.

The beauty of the gold standard is that the economy does good when gold is plentiful and not as well when supplies are tight.  While the gold supplied from DEs was small relative to other forms of monetary easing, I think it could have been a small factor.

I'll know more in a few weeks. xD

 

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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The various currency standards based on gold or silver (or toasted turtle eggs) served only to constrain economic growth by requiring formal dilution of the standard item so that more currency could be available for commerce. The US version was to issue several kinds of "gold notes" each backed by a decreasing proportion of metal. Other countries openly devalued, repudiated or did nothing. One outcome was increased speculation in exchange rates and artificial demand against a fixed supply.

Technological changes had a major impact as did WW-I price inflation. The cost of producing gold rose above the government-set value - that is, the "standard" was not stable and could therefore not be a standard.

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Roger or Anybody Else: do you know if the entire 19,900 of the Wells Fargo Hoard were submitted for grading to the TPGs (PCGS)........or only about 9,000 coins with the rest deemed circulated and not worth getting graded ?

I can't find evidence that the entire amount was graded based on the grading totals cited but I can't believe that 1/2 the hoard was pristine and 1/2 was circulated.  I guess it's possible, just hard to believe.

For instance, I find a post from veterans ATS that only 1 coin was graded below MS-65, a sole MS-63.  But the TOTALs given don't sum to 19,900 just over 9,000.

I wonder if I contacted PCGS if they would provide an answer.  I'm assuming they graded 100% of the coins originally and the NGC holders represent crack-outs.

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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On 1/8/2023 at 12:17 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Roger or Anybody Else: do you know if the entire 19,900 of the Wells Fargo Hoard were submitted for grading to the TPGs (PCGS)........or only about 9,000 coins with the rest deemed circulated and not worth getting graded ?

I can't find evidence that the entire amount was graded based on the grading totals cited but I can't believe that 1/2 the hoard was pristine and 1/2 was circulated.  I guess it's possible, just hard to believe.

For instance, I find a post from veterans ATS that only 1 coin was graded below MS-65, a sole MS-63.  But the TOTALs given don't sum to 19,900 just over 9,000.

I wonder if I contacted PCGS if they would provide an answer.  I'm assuming they graded 100% of the coins originally and the NGC holders represent crack-outs.

What I learned was reported in the DE book. It appears efforts were taken by all involved to hide or misdirect information about the coins and their acquisition. Unless a principal participant comes forth with a verifiable disclosure, we will never know the truth.

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On 1/8/2023 at 2:26 PM, RWB said:

What I learned was reported in the DE book. It appears efforts were taken by all involved to hide or misdirect information about the coins and their acquisition. Unless a principal participant comes forth with a verifiable disclosure, we will never know the truth.

Understood....and you said here (not sure of in the book, I'll have to checK) that there were over 260,000 "authentication events" which (discounted by 40% to account for double-counts) leads you to think it might have been as large as 150,000 coins.

How did you find out 260,000 authentication (grading) events ?

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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Counting authentication quantity changes of this date/mint over time -- I don't remember the interval -- at NGC and PCGS. Then comparing rates against earlier and later periods.

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On 1/8/2023 at 8:12 PM, RWB said:

Counting authentication quantity changes of this date/mint over time -- I don't remember the interval -- at NGC and PCGS. Then comparing rates against earlier and later periods.

Interesting....I'll keep an eye on this going forward since yours was based on 2015/16 data.

Funny story....ordered a copy of your book for my uncle...thought he had like 30-35 Saints...turns out he has 3 !! xD

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On 1/8/2023 at 8:20 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Funny story....ordered a copy of your book for my uncle...thought he had like 30-35 Saints...turns out he has 3 !!

Then he can read only only those three chapters - he has to buy more coins before you can allow him entrance into the Great Mysteries.

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On 1/9/2023 at 12:43 PM, RWB said:

Then he can read only only those three chapters - he has to buy more coins before you can allow him entrance into the Great Mysteries.

He's been telling me for YEARS he had Saint-Gaudens....I used to do his taxes in the 1990's and I remember introducing him to Blanchard when he wanted gold....so over the years he mentioned the Saints but I never paid any attention.

After I got into the coins, I asked him about them from time-to-time but it was only recently I asked him to give me a list so I could give him information on them.  I thought most of the coins he got from Blanchard/Monex/etc. were Saints, but in fact most were straight bullion and he has only a handful of Saints. :(

There goes my inheritance.....xD

Edited by GoldFinger1969
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