Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book 4 4

[VKurtB]

So Miss Liberty has a Farouked up leg? Is that what we’re saying?

[EliteCollection]

On 5/25/2022 at 10:08 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Just curious...any thought to putting it into an NGC holder ? 

I mean, for such a unique coin, I don't think you need worry about any premium or discount upon resale (if ever sold). 

It was never a consideration for many reasons:

- PCGS graders are generally stricter and leads to higher resale value

- PCGS holders look better in my opinion

- I use the PCGS set registry and they only accept PCGS graded coins

- All my coins are in PCGS holders, so it will be out of place

Edited May 25, 2022 by Elite Collection

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 1:24 PM, Elite Collection said:

- PCGS graders are generally stricter and leads to higher resale value

I think that was true at one time, but I think the gap has closed.  PCGS has been the subject of multiple criticisms even at the CU/PCGS forums -- with threads disappearing and individuals suspended/banned.  Some of the worst examples of gradeflation have been in recent years involving PCGS and small-denomination coins (not gold or Saints).

I will say this about our NGC hosts:  they tolerate criticism.  They don't go bonkers at the first mention of not liking their grading. 

I think that will benefit them in the long-run.  Granted, I don't have to worry about registry points or re-sale of pricey coins, but I like what I have seen in recent years from NGC on the grading, holder, and label fronts.

On 5/25/2022 at 1:24 PM, Elite Collection said:

- PCGS holders look better in my opinion

I actually like the modern NGC holders that I bought some modern coins in.  Nice holders....the 4-prong holder is nice.....good-looking, informative color labels, too.

I will go to your registery to see what the 1933 looks like in the current holder.  I don't believe I have seen it.

On 5/25/2022 at 1:24 PM, Elite Collection said:

- I use the PCGS set registry and they only accept PCGS graded coins

Understood.  Not a registry player so I never followed these rules but I understand it's a 1-way street with PCGS.

On 5/25/2022 at 1:24 PM, Elite Collection said:

- All my coins are in PCGS holders, so it will be out of place

Really ?  Did you re-submit many of them or did you simply only buy PCGS ?

Edited May 25, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/19/2022 at 12:50 PM, RWB said:

Yes. Stacks had nothing and claimed to know nothing. MTB said they were the "originator" (or some such term). 

I never responded to this, Roger.....MTB at the time was a pretty big gold dealer in 1983.  They made their bones in the late-1970's and early-1980's.  Lots of publicity in The NYT, WSJ, BARRON'S, etc.  But they mostly dealt in bullion or gold coins that were maybe a small premium to spot gold.

Sotheby's would have given them some "cache" to sell the more valuable, numismatic coins.  MTB's normal clientele maybe couldn't or wouldn't have the $$$ to buy individual coins or a bunch of them requiring more $$$ than the normal small bullion purchases.

As it turned out, Bauman of MTB was able to sell a large number of the coins to David Akers and other premium contacts who probably took the more valuable, higher-graded coins (graded by them, no TPGs for another 3-4 years).

[Alex in PA.]

On 5/25/2022 at 1:37 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think that was true at one time, but I think the gap has closed. 

Yes and I think some people who are members of both TPGs believe that.  I use PCGS for all my Carson City Coins 'except' my Carson City gold.  I have a long time personal rule:  Silver to PCGS and Gold to NGC.  Don't ask me why; I just seem to like they way they do it.  Now I do have a small Buffalo Nickel collection in NGC Holders and NGC Buffalo Labels.  I like that.

PS:  Great comment of yours.    

[EliteCollection]

On 5/25/2022 at 10:37 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think that was true at one time, but I think the gap has closed.  PCGS has been the subject of multiple criticisms even at the CU/PCGS forums -- with threads disappearing and individuals suspended/banned.  Some of the worst examples of gradeflation have been in recent years involving PCGS and small-denomination coins (not gold or Saints).

I will say this about our NGC hosts:  they tolerate criticism.  They don't go bonkers at the first mention of not liking their grading. 

I think that will benefit them in the long-run.  Granted, I don't have to worry about registry points or re-sale of pricey coins, but I like what I have seen in recent years from NGC on the grading, holder, and label fronts.

I actually like the modern NGC holders that I bought some modern coins in.  Nice holders....the 4-prong holder is nice.....good-looking, informative color labels, too.

I will go to your registery to see what the 1933 looks like in the current holder.  I don't believe I have seen it.

Understood.  Not a registry player so I never followed these rules but I understand it's a 1-way street with PCGS.

Really ?  Did you re-submit many of them or did you simply only buy PCGS ?

It may be true that NGC is better now and PCGS definitely has overgraded coins. But with a lot more overgraded NGC coins out there, the market is paying less for NGC coins. But of course that's not everything. I like my collection to look the same, so I've stuck with PCGS and only buy PCGS coins.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 2:31 PM, Elite Collection said:

It may be true that NGC is better now and PCGS definitely has overgraded coins. But with a lot more overgraded NGC coins out there, the market is paying less for NGC coins. But of course that's not everything. I like my collection to look the same, so I've stuck with PCGS and only buy PCGS coins.

Seems logical.  Enjoy them. 

BTW, I'm not saying that "NGC is better now" -- only that the forces that gave PCGS a HUGE premium (especially for Trophy Coins like those sold by LN) seem to have dissipated a bit.  Maybe because PCGS was the 1st TPG...maybe because NGC got a repuation for looseness 20-25 years ago...maybe it was affection for certain holders....I don't know. 

For whatever reason, the market decided to give nice premiums to PCGS even though you had a duopoly at the top of the TPG rankings.

At least it gives us something to discuss ! 

[Alex in PA.]

Let me muddy the waters if I may.  I do not think PCGS or NGC has much of a 'premium' on them if the slab does not have a Green or Gold CAC bean on it.  Just my opinion; that's all.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Alex in PA.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 3:09 PM, Alex in PA. said:

Let me muddy the waters if I may.  I do not think PCGS or NGC has much of a 'premium' on them if the slab does not have a Green or Gold CAC bean on it.  Just my opinion; that's all.

All else equal.....no CAC sticker on either or a CAC sticker on both.....as condition rarity increases.....the PCGS premium increases.

If you get lots of newcomers into this hobby...and they buy plenty of low-priced coins or moderns....and get used to the NGC holders....I can see them moving up over time to more expensive coins and not paying some of the stated premiums. 

It won't happen overnight, I agree.

[Alex in PA.]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:04 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

and get used to the NGC holders.

As I said I like NGC.  They did a whopping good job on my Carson City gold coins with Conservation and regrade.  I sent in 3 $20.00 CC DEs three years ago and two went up 1 grade.  What I guess I like most about NGC is their specialty labels.  

Edited May 25, 2022 by Alex in PA.

[Cat Bath]

On 5/25/2022 at 2:31 PM, Elite Collection said:

 I like my collection to look the same, so I've stuck with PCGS and only buy PCGS coins.

I think I commented on your set before it went private. (now it's dark). I believe you were just starting to assemble it on the registry then.

When I started my date set I had 4 PCGS saints and 2 NGC ones. That's what led me ATS (Across The Street...AKA PCGS) It was easier to cross 2 than 4.

Hope you can make yours public again but I understand dealers like to price gouge when they see you might want a particular coin.

My date set. I like nice faces on lady liberty so that is my 1st requirement on a saint.

https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/20-gold-major-sets/st-gaudens-20-gold-date-set-circulation-strikes-1907-1932/publishedset/170023

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:10 PM, Alex in PA. said:

What I guess I like most about NGC is their specialty labels.  

Yup, they have some really nice labels.  I think they add to the coin's distinctiveness.

For instance, on my Saint-Gaudens Commemorative Silvers you have a nice portrait of SG. 

Edited May 25, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:15 PM, Cat Bath said:

Hope you can make yours public again but I understand dealers like to price gouge when they see you might want a particular coin.

Never thought about that.  Interesting....

Although unless someone is committed to getting every/most dates, and you also knew they wanted the coins in the short-term, is that something you can see happening (being held up price-wise) ?  If it's someone who's young, they might be willing to build the collection over 5 or 10 or 15 years. 

Tough to price-gouge if the buyer has time on their side.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:20 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Never thought about that.  Interesting....

Although unless someone is committed to getting every/most dates, and you also knew they wanted the coins in the short-term, is that something you can see happening (being held up price-wise) ?  If it's someone who's young, they might be willing to build the collection over 5 or 10 or 15 years. 

Tough to price-gouge if the buyer has time on their side.

Actually....since EC's name is not known to us....I'm not sure the dealers could gouge him since they don't know his Secret Identity (like Superman/Clark Kent ).

If he wants a top-flight 1932 or MCMVII HR...he can bid on HA or GC and just wait for his price.  It's not like he's going to a dealer saying "Hey, I am trying to put together THE ULTIMATE Saint set and I need top coins to match my 1933 and UHR."

I think EC's anonymity helps him, and the secret bidding at HA/GC also helps since unlike decades ago when you had to tell a few (close) dealers....he doesn't have to tell anybody.  

Good for him & Good Luck, EC !  

[EliteCollection]

On 5/25/2022 at 1:15 PM, Cat Bath said:

Hope you can make yours public again but I understand dealers like to price gouge when they see you might want a particular coin.

Yup, exactly. I will make it public again soon.

[Cat Bath]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:20 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Never thought about that.  Interesting....

Yep...Hansen did the same thing before the Fox sale.

I had it memorized though  & PMed him that he should buy the 11-D

He did but I don't know if it was because of me. (here it is)

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:24 PM, Elite Collection said:

Yup, exactly. I will make it public again soon.

Great, let us know here if you get a chance.  I want to see the 1933 in the holder.  

Thanks EC ! 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:27 PM, Cat Bath said:

Yep...Hansen did the same thing before the Fox sale. I had it memorized though  & PMed him that he should buy the 11-D  He did but I don't know if it was because of me. (here it is)

I guess if you are putting together a top-end Saints collection....and you only want coins that are Top 3 (maybe Top 5)....word can more easily leak.  I'm sure Bob Simpson had this problem (maybe he should have had Jessica bid for him).

Since many of these people are very wealthy, the sellers may figure "He can pay this, I'll just wait him out."

It's a cat-and-mouse game for sure.

[GoldFinger1969]

The problem that EC and other high-end buyers reminds me of what I tell people in the financial markets:  the advantage is with the SMALL guy.

If I want to collect Saints and go after lots of key dates, I am probably buying just very good/excellent coins, not the Trophy Coins in the key dates.  Which means I can bid anonymously....use auction sites.....and wait for my price.  Nobody is going to gouge someone who wants an AU-58 or MS-63 MCMVII HR as opposed to an MS-67 CAC.

Conversely, a super-high end buyer has limited coins he will accept...and if word leaks.....well.....advantage SELLER.  Just like retail/small investors can go to cash in minutes or hours but it takes institutions days or weeks or even months.

Sometimes, small is good.  

[Henri Charriere]

[My take on all this... absolutely/positively/unquestionably, one of the most fruitful cross-examinations of a cooperative witness (buyer) ever conducted on this, or any other thread, on the Forum. And a special thank you to GF1969 for the timely heads up to me and his gift for gently eliciting details on a sensitive acquisition in a manner others would routinely eschew.]  

[Cat Bath]

On 5/25/2022 at 10:08 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

There definitely were DEs on that boat, but it's unclear as to whether they were Liberty's or Saints.

So what's your guess?

I'm going to go with 08Motto 

$3,000,000 would be 150,000 of them. 

It would make it about as common as the 27

Edited May 25, 2022 by Cat Bath

[Alex in PA.]

On 5/25/2022 at 5:01 PM, Cat Bath said:

$3,000,000 would be 150,000 of them

Yes!  However, no one seems in a hurry to get rich.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 4:59 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

[My take on all this... absolutely/positively/unquestionably, one of the most fruitful cross-examinations of a cooperative witness (buyer) ever conducted on this, or any other thread, on the Forum. And a special thank you to GF1969 for the timely heads up to me and his gift for gently eliciting details on a sensitive acquisition in a manner others would routinely eschew.]  

We're fortunate that EC decided to grace our presence here and discuss his registry endeavors.  Hopefully, he can keep us posted and updated without comprimising his ability to get the coins he wants.

Regardless, seems like a very nice guy so hopefully he'll stick around ! 

[EliteCollection]

On 5/25/2022 at 2:47 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

comprimising his ability to get the coins he wants

I already got all the coins I want. I don't need any more. 

Edited May 25, 2022 by Elite Collection

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 5:01 PM, Cat Bath said:

So what's your guess? I'm going to go with 08Motto  $3,000,000 would be 150,000 of them. It

would make it about as common as the 27

The 1908 Motto really takes off at MS-65 but you see it separate from bullion at MS-62/63:

https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1908-20-motto/9147

But if Roger is correct and they are damaged, you mostly are talking about AU-graded coins, right ?  Even if you do restoration on the coins, I would guess they would expand the MS inventory for the 1908 Motto, but at a discount to the current prices.  Similar to what happened to the 1857-S, where only Big $$$ got you one before the SSCA and then afterwards the price was lower and demand exploded via the publicity of the find.

Edited May 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 5:34 PM, Alex in PA. said:

Yes!  However, no one seems in a hurry to get rich.  

They have to verify that the coins are there (probably) and then determine WHERE on the boat they would have been kept.  If those coins spread out over the ocean floor, the increase in salvage costs could make the whole thing a money-loser.

Believe it or not, they can't find a schematic/layout of the ship.

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Alex in PA.]

On 5/25/2022 at 7:11 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Believe it or not, they can't find a schematic/layout of the ship.

I read that but......that can't be all that's holding up the show.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 7:41 PM, Alex in PA. said:

I read that but......that can't be all that's holding up the show.  

It could...if the coins haven't spilled out, and they were definitely there, then they are somewhere on a 500-foot ship.  There could be dozens of places the coins were moved......could have been taken to an alternate holding area.

150,000 coins is about 600 bags (250 count) or 300 bags (500 count).  Not sure there are bigger bags.  But if you can find the entire stash it makes things easier.  And if the bags got shifted around, it adds to the cost/complexity.  If the bags OPENED and the coins went all over the place, then the cost/complexity goes up exponentially.

Edited May 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 7:41 PM, Alex in PA. said:

I read that but......that can't be all that's holding up the show.  

I don't know how salvage costs have gone up/down since 1990 or so (when they might have first tried to get the coins) but the price of gold is about 4x higher so that's a plus.

If only bullion -- no premium, probably a worst-case scenario -- 150,000 coins would be about $60 MM 35 years ago.  Today, it's closer to $275 MM.

Edited May 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/25/2022 at 7:48 AM, RWB said:

The double eagles would likely have been dated 1908 or 1907 (Liberty). Salt water damage would limit them to "Sea Salvage" condition, and therefore they should not enter price competition with normal DE. When/If located, they would be promoted much like the Central America gold -- that is, sold to suckers for excessive prices. If 1908-date they would have to compete with the other sucker-lot of 1908 Type 1 pieces sold a few decades ago. (Gold for the Atlantic Fleet would likely be in half eagles, plus silver.)

Nothing discusses the failed recovery attempts and the long delay in salvaging the wreck. The "Treasure Location Report" is more investor enticement than useful in recovery.

From various web sources:

• A Sky News documentary says the coins are 1909 Saints.
• Says the value could be $3 billion, but that assumes they are treated as modern 1909's worth $12,000 - $40,000 in MS64/65 condition.  These documentaries rarely talk to numismatic experts on pricing but if the coins WERE newly minted and IF RESTORABLE....they could be marketed at MS-64's or 65's.
• Here's the salvage company's website, looks like they are still trying to raise $$$: https://lordsoffortune.com/catalog/
• I missed History Channel's 2016 special, BILLION DOLLAR WRECK...  https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/541914226/lords-of-fortune-llc-to-recover-famous-treasure-aboard-shipwreck-rms-republic-lost-in-1909
• "As stated in its Offering Memorandum, the Company intends to use the proceeds from this Offering, together with additional financing being sourced, for its recovery of two cargoes, the first known to be aboard RMS Republic, an $800,000 1909 face value US Navy coin-monies shipment, 8 tons of late 19th and early 20th century coins, pennies through gold double-eagles, bound for the Great White Fleet then at Gibraltar. This cargo alone has been appraised today at between $150 million and $340 million. The second, a much more intriguing $25 million shipment comprised of double-eagles, mint-state twenty-dollar gold pieces, 45 tons of gold coins, the proceeds from Tsarist Russia’s sale of its January 22, 1909 Bonds on Wall Street. That cargo, if it exists, has been appraised at $4 billion to $7 billion."

Edited May 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969