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Roger Burdette's Saint Gaudens Double Eagles Book
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Started by GoldFinger1969,

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GoldFinger1969

GoldFinger1969

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Rankings for Saint-Gaudens, By Year (Mint State).... How they stand when Akers/Ambio (1988/2012) and Roger (2018) did the Saints rankings in Mint State.  I believe I interpolated Roger's numbers based on information he provided since he has an "Uncirculated - MS62" category which needs to be adjusted for coins below MS-60.

Roger's rankings are ordered 1-53......you can see where the change is by looking at the Akers/Ambio column.

  Akers/Ambio Roger
1933 1 1
1927-D 2 2
1930-S 3 3
1932 7 4
1931 6 5
1931-D 8 6
1921 4 7
1920-S 5 8
1927-S 9 9
1929 11 10
1926-D 10 11
1925-D 14 12
1924-S 16 13
1909-D 15 14
1924-D 17 15
1908-S 12 16
1925-S 13 17
1926-S 18 18
1922-S 19 19
1913-S 21 20
1909/8 20 21
1909 22 21
1914 24 23
1908 Motto 25 24
1915 23 25
1908-D Motto 28 26
1911 27 27
1913 26 28
1912 29 29
MCMVII High Relief 32 30
1916-S 35 31
1910-S 30 32
1913-D 31 33
1909-S 37 34
1920 36 35
1914-D 40 36
1911-S 34 37
1910-D 39 38
1923-D 41 39
1910 37 40
1907 Arabic 43 41
1911-D 42 42
1915-S 44 43
1908-D No Motto 33 44
1914-S 45 45
1923 46 46
1922 48 47
1926 47 48
1908 No Motto 51 49
1928 50 50
1925 49 51
1927 52 52
1924 53 53
1907 UHR NA NA
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GoldFinger1969

GoldFinger1969

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1915 Circulation:  Roger, is there any reason for your belief that about 10% (15,000 coins)  of the 1915 Saint production may have circulated, aside from maybe WW I ? 

That number would normally be at most 1% or less of a normal mint's annual production.  In fact, I believe the % was much lower than 1% (contrary to what I used to believe) and much lower than 15,000 in absolute numbers.  So a total of 10%/15,000 that wasn't seen by San Francisco (567,000 produced) strikes me as very strange even accounting for an East Coast (Philadelphia) economic bias.

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RWB

RWB

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NYAO, Phil Mint distribution, export reports, shipping manifests, etc.; also includes authentication company calculations, auction appearances since 1990. It is not an "easy" number to derive and all such quantities have a lower confidence level than other more easily calculated amounts. Notable among excluded info are dealer estimates, raw anecdotes, and similar biased opinions.

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tj96

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On 1/19/2022 at 12:55 PM, RWB said:

NYAO, Phil Mint distribution, export reports, shipping manifests, etc.; also includes authentication company calculations, auction appearances since 1990. It is not an "easy" number to derive and all such quantities have a lower confidence level than other more easily calculated amounts. Notable among excluded info are dealer estimates, raw anecdotes, and similar biased opinions.

Oh shoot, wait a minute.  Are you Roger Burdette?

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GoldFinger1969

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On 1/19/2022 at 12:55 PM, RWB said:

NYAO, Phil Mint distribution, export reports, shipping manifests, etc.; also includes authentication company calculations, auction appearances since 1990. It is not an "easy" number to derive and all such quantities have a lower confidence level than other more easily calculated amounts. Notable among excluded info are dealer estimates, raw anecdotes, and similar biased opinions.

I get gold flowing in from Europe -- they want supplies, munitions, food, etc. -- so looking at it from an American perspective....you think maybe the fear of such a Great War could have led more people to hold their savings themselves in the form of gold ?

Panic of 1907 still fresh in people's minds....Knickerbocker Trust....creation of Federal Reserve System (1913) maybe controversial....and now a Great War.

I would have held some gold. (thumbsu

 

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GoldFinger1969

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On 1/19/2022 at 1:20 PM, tj96 said:

Oh shoot, wait a minute.  Are you Roger Burdette?

TJ, in response to your other thread about how to get Likes, Posts, Comments, etc.....yes, this is the thread I referenced and yes, RWB = Roger Burdette.

Roger has some other self-created threads based on notes, memos, and other correspondences from 100-150 years ago that you might find interesting in this section (not in this Saints thread, in the US, WORLD, ANCIENT COINS section).

Knock yourself out and WELCOME ! (thumbsu

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tj96

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On 1/19/2022 at 1:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

TJ, in response to your other thread about how to get Likes, Posts, Comments, etc.....yes, this is the thread I referenced and yes, RWB = Roger Burdette.

Roger has some other self-created threads based on notes, (thumbsu, and other correspondences from 100-150 years ago that you might find interesting in this section (not in this Saints thread, in the US, WORLD, ANCIENCT COINS section).

Knock yourself out and WELCOME ! (thumbsu

You guys here are GREAT!!  Thanks very much!! (thumbsu(thumbsu

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tj96

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On 1/19/2022 at 3:04 PM, RWB said:

Saw him in the mirror this morning -- at least it looked like him/me.

ROGER!!!  I'm looking for you.  Can I PM you?

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RWB

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My rankings are based in part on specimens available, rather than pieces known. The rarest DE is 1927-D. MCMVII [1907] EHR/UHR should not be on the list. It is a pattern and was not a legal tender coin when produced. Lastly, there are three different varieties of 1908 DE; something which Akers did not recognize, and Breen likely did not understand.

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RWB

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On 1/19/2022 at 3:13 PM, tj96 said:

I'm looking for you. 

Right over here, next to the chicken soup vending machine --

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GoldFinger1969

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On 1/19/2022 at 3:15 PM, RWB said:

My rankings are based in part on specimens available, rather than pieces known. The rarest DE is 1927-D. MCMVII [1907] EHR/UHR should not be on the list. It is a pattern and was not a legal tender coin when produced. Lastly, there are three different varieties of 1908 DE; something which Akers did not recognize, and Breen likely did not understand.

If I take out the MCMVII HR, it doesn't materially impact the rankings at all.  52 instead of 53 coins using my consolidated methodology (i.e., only 1 1908 DE not 3)....most of the coins from Akers/Ambio outside the Top 10 are within 1-3 places of your rankings for the same coin.

No coin moves more than 4 spots in the rankings from 2012 in your SAINTS book list.

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RWB

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On 1/19/2022 at 4:39 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

MCMVII [1907] EHR/UHR

---the early 1907 pattern - at the bottom of your posted list.

True - there is little difference. That really shows how good Akers' estimates were. My list was created from different sources, but the two align very well.

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GoldFinger1969

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On 1/19/2022 at 4:42 PM, RWB said:

---the early 1907 pattern - at the bottom of your posted list. True - there is little difference. That really shows how good Akers' estimates were. My list was created from different sources, but the two align very well.

Noted. (thumbsu

Look at the Top 5.....forget the 1933, doesn't matter....the first big change occurs at your #4, the 1932.  A/A had it at #7.  Your #5, the 1931, was A/A's #6.  Your #6, the 1931-D, was A/A's #8.

The 1921 and 1920-S had more coins identified/found by you and others.  You have them at #7 and #8....A/A has them at #4 and #5.

You and A/A meet again at the 1927-S, #9.  Then diverge again and meet at #19, the 1922-S....diverge again, meet at #27, the 1911.....diverge again, meet at #42, the 1911-D.....diverge but meet up for a double at #45 and #46, the 1914-S and 1923.....diverge again but meet at #50, #52, and #53 (the 1920's Philly Commons...1928, 1927, 1924).

Fascinating the intersection of new finds, hoards, improved counting methodology, and people having a coin here or there which impacts both Total Population and High-Grade Population.

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RWB

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Yes. The appearance of only one specimen of a rare date/mint can alter the sequence. Although, as a practical matter when there are more buyers than sellers, any coin becomes more difficult to find.

Once NARA fully reopens, some of the numbers can be further refined based on the Cashier's daily reports. Here's a sample from Denver for September 28, 1927. It shows $500 in gold coin paid out, but does not specify denomination. If these were DE for the Treasurer's sale to collectors, then 25 1927-D double eagles left the Denver Mint - possibly bound for coin collectors -- or possibly not. Comparison with adjacent dates will reveal the denomination, but can only suggest a possible use.

1242009000_19270928DEpaidout.thumb.jpg.5037f702a535c9248ca198b38c53fad8.jpg

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GoldFinger1969

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That's weird, huh ?  Why keep such a detailed sheet and NOT note the breakdown of the item that whole sheet is about - the $500 in gold coins ?  As I recall, the Philly Mint gave breakdowns on $20 and $10 cashier hand-outs for 1931-33, right ?

That's great sleuthing, Roger. (thumbsu  Imagine if somewhere...in a SDB or maybe held by a family member who thinks they are plain-old 1927's and not 1927-D's....there were some 1927-D's paid out that aren't in today's pop numbers ?  Would really impact the market.

OTOH, it's almost been 100 years since the coins were struck.  The original owner is almost certainly deceased, and any 1st Generation heirs should be getting up there in years after inheriting them that you would think they would have divulged possession of valuable coins by now.

But...you never know. xD

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GoldFinger1969

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Prices At The Superb Gem Level:  Was thinking a bit about a post I noted on another thread here in the forums.  MS-67's Saints are selling for $12,500 give-or-take for 1924's and about 10% higher, ~$14,000 for 1928's.  Both are considered commons and plentiful in MS-65 and not that rare in MS-67, too.  1923-D's, another "common" coin, also in the mid-teens or thereabouts for an MS-67.

However...there's a big dropoff for a coin that has lots more in the Superb Gem category and plenty (but not as many as the 1924 or 1927) in the Gem category, the 1908 No Motto.  It sells for about half the price of the 1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928.  

Roger's Estimates for the coins are listed first and then I have both the latest PCGS and NGC Population Census for the year.  I have no idea really how to account for double-counting and crackouts by just adding PCGS and NGC totals to one another.  Feel free to chime in. :)

1908 No Motto:  MS-67/68 @ 2,001 (both rays) and MS65/66 @ 19,400.    PCGS @ 1,027 and 40,745.....NGC @ 1,360 and 21,094.

1923-D:   MS-67/68 @ 90 and MS-65/66 @ 5,500.   PCGS @ 90 and 4,753........NGC @ 57 and 2,679.

1924:   MS-67/68 @ 225....and MS-65/66 @ 79,500.  PCGS @ 135 and 64,350....NGC @ 220 and 4,2841.

1927:   MS-67/68 @ 60 and 48,000 for 65-66.  PCGS @ 36 and 39,601.....NGC @ 62 and 24,830.

1928  MS-67/68 @ 140.......MS-65/66 @ 16,200.    PCGS @ 117 and 15,112.....NGC @ 103 and 8,483.

You can clearly see the huge dropoff at the Super Gem (MS67 and up) in the 4 other commons (1923-D, 1924, 1927, and 1928) compared to the 1908.  Hundreds available there in total for all 4 but a few thousand of the 1908 NM's.  Ironically, the 1924 and 1927 dwarf the 1908 NM at the Gem level (MS65-66) by a huge factor, the Wells Fargo Hoard really skewed the totals at that 67 level in favor of the 1908 NM.

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GoldFinger1969

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On 1/20/2022 at 1:30 PM, RWB said:

Yes. The appearance of only one specimen of a rare date/mint can alter the sequence. Although, as a practical matter when there are more buyers than sellers, any coin becomes more difficult to find.

Once NARA fully reopens, some of the numbers can be further refined based on the Cashier's daily reports. Here's a sample from Denver for September 28, 1927. It shows $500 in gold coin paid out, but does not specify denomination. If these were DE for the Treasurer's sale to collectors, then 25 1927-D double eagles left the Denver Mint - possibly bound for coin collectors -- or possibly not. Comparison with adjacent dates will reveal the denomination, but can only suggest a possible use.

Roger, on Page 492 you state that the $500 in gold coin was 25 pieces and was sent to the Treasurer in Washington, DC.

Which narrative is your latest thoughts -- the book implying 25 DEs or the post above where you state denomination is unknown ?

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GoldFinger1969

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On 2/3/2022 at 11:44 AM, RWB said:

The book. The comment above is memory -- which is not always reliable, especially when "speaking" off-hand.

Thanks, I thought there was a conflict.

So....there remains the possibility that twenty-five 1927-D's are out there, right ?

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RWB

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On 2/3/2022 at 12:13 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Thanks, I thought there was a conflict.

So....there remains the possibility that twenty-five 1927-D's are out there, right ?

Yep. The only "conflict" is when I look in the mirror in the morning and wonder who that old fart is looking back.

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GoldFinger1969

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On 2/3/2022 at 11:44 AM, RWB said:

The book. The comment above is memory -- which is not always reliable, especially when "speaking" off-hand.

Just to be clear.....so these are ACCOUNTED for 1927-D's that were destroyed in the 1930's....or could still be out there ?

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